Trump Trade War

[LawBeefaroni]

This is going well.

12 billions in aid, apparently.

I guess because I don't play 37 dimensional chess, I don't understand what's happening here.

You do what you can to enrich certain individuals by increasing someone else's (taxpayer) deficit. If you get significant push back, you bribe people with other people's (taxpayer) money. It's a great scam and when it's finally time to pay the piper, it's someone else's problem.

[Captain Caveman]

The president of the party that hates taxes and government spending raised taxes that hurt farmers and then used government spending to fix the problem.

[Smoove_B]

If only he could have figured out a way to release a few billion to Puerto Rico so quickly. I mean, I'm sure this announcement has nothing to do with a scheduled trip to Iowa on Thursday. Maybe he'll be tossing them bundles of unmarked bills instead of paper towels?

[LawBeefaroni]

IOWA FARMERS ARE AMERICANS, SMOOVE!

[Skinypupy]

IOWA FARMERS ARE AMERICANS, SMOOVE!

[Rip]

Having been following UK politics for several years now, this only means something if you care about submarines with no context whatsoever. Who do we know that likes submarines but hates context?

Here's the leader of the USA questioning the costs of the F35, stating the costs are spiraling out of control.

WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald J. Trump said on Monday that the cost of building the military’s next-generation fighter jet, the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, had spiraled “out of control,” and he vowed to save billions of dollars on military programs once he enters office next month.

I'm not sure on etiquette. Is this where the emoticon goes?



I'm sure this signifies something, but what? I sure hope the US still has the means to defend itself at the end of all this cost cutting.

Well one would have to wonder about wanting to cut your sub force when you are already down to about a third of what you had in 82. During that time the US dropped a little from 100 to a little under 80. Just another area where all the submarines of the EU pale when compared to US, Russia, China.

If anyone needs a good sub force it is England.

Not like the UK is alone in doing defense half-assed.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ ... dead-26566

Press reports state the problem is “lack of spares,” and that “Germany can no longer afford to stock spares for these expensive submarines.” Really? It boggles the mind that the wealthiest country in the EU cannot even afford to support a U Boat fleet of six vessels. These vessels are designed for the Baltic and due to their hydrogen fuel-cell propulsion system can stay underwater for as long as two weeks. While this sounds rather benign, operations in the Baltic are difficult due to shallow water, and even more difficult since their peacetime mission requirements involve dangerous stealthy operations to gain intelligence on Russian ports. The Type 212 U Boats are the optimal submarines for these missions, so it is a particular pity that they sit in dry dock waiting for spares that should be readily available. Today, other countries’ submarines take up this slack and perform this mission since Germany spends too little on its military to fund an adequate support infrastructure for these vessels. One shudders to think how long it would take Germany to up the readiness of its tiny U Boat fleet should the Russians become more aggressive against the NATO Baltic countries.

For countries that supposedly see Russia as such a big threat they sure do a good job of inviting them to take what they like.

[Isgrimnur]

Yeah, they totally should have kept their eye on the ball like we did.

There’s Nothing the U.S. Navy Can Do to Avoid a Submarine Gap

The fleet has too few attack submarines. And arresting the growing shortfall — never mind reversing it — could prove too expensive.

The Navy needs 66 nuclear-powered attack and guided-missile submarines according to a 2016 assessment by then-Navy secretary Ray Mabus. But in mid-2018 the sailing branch possessed just 56 attack and guided-missile boats — SSNs and SSGNs, respectively, in Navy parlance.
...
Despite the Navy purchasing two new Virginias every year on average since 2012, the 10-sub gap is likely to widen in the 2020s as older Los Angeles boats, which the Navy bought at high rates during the 1980s and 1990s, reach the end of their useful service lives.
...
The submarine shortage is the result of a long break in U.S. submarine production in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War. The fleet received just five new SSNs between 1990 and 1999. “In the 1990s, the Navy took a procurement holiday,” the Congressional Budget Office explained in a 2003 report.
...
The Navy has, for years, known that it could suffer an attack-boat shortage. Prior to 2016, the Navy believed it needed just 48 SSNs and SSGNs over the next 30 years. But with the resurgence of Russia’s undersea fleet and China’s sustained production of better submarine models, the U.S. Navy’s needs changed — and underpinned Mabus’s new, larger force-structure goal.

[Pyperkub]

One counterpoint. I do believe that the Trade/Tariff War risks are serving as a slight braking mechanism on the economy overheating and exploding a bubble, and probably limiting the Fed Interest rate hikes in the process.

[Isgrimnur]

If there were a reasonable strategy and a steady hand at the controls, I might be more persuaded to think it will be a good thing.

WaPo

The Post reports: “The stock market, which does not mirror the health of the broader economy, has tripped this year amid trade fears: The S&P 500 is up 31 percent since Trump’s election, but it has slowed considerably, gaining 4.9 percent this year, CNBC notes.” Growth numbers might dive after this quarter. (“Morgan Stanley economists, for example, project 4.7 percent growth, but estimate companies stockpiling goods alone could account for 1.5 percent of that activity. In short, one bank strategist wrote in a note, ‘Enjoy the 2Q GDP number, which may be the last best’ report for ‘a while.’ “)

And worst of all, wages have dived, not soared as Trump aides assured us would happen after the tax cuts passed. (“Most significantly for Trump and his party, the metric most important to the most voters — their own paychecks — isn’t offering the same good news. Worker pay actually fell by a nearly a full percentage point in the second quarter, according to the PayScale Index, which uses private data.”)

Rather than boosting wages, employers have undertaken massive stock buybacks and gone on an acquisition and merger spree.
...
Conservative economists have been right about one thing: It is bad for government to pick winners and losers in the economy. Alas, that is precisely what Trump has done, with predictable results.
...
The economy is not, most economists surmise, on the brink of recession. However, rather than strengthening the Obama economy — by forging new trade deals, passing actual tax reform (not massive cuts for the rich and corporations) and attending to the knotty problems that afflict mostly rural regions that have not benefited from globalization — Trump is booby-trapping the economy. If and when a recession hits, our gargantuan deficits, relatively low interest rates (still) and depleted federal revenue will leave us without many of the tools necessary to move out of the economic doldrums.

[Isgrimnur]

WaPo

President Trump sought here Tuesday to temper a growing Republican rebellion over his escalating trade war, pleading with farmers to “be a little patient” and urged people not to believe the news reports they see and read.

As his administration prepares a $12 billion bailout for farmers whose products face tariffs from China and other countries retaliating against Trump’s trade policies, the president implored Americans to keep faith in his strategy.

Trump mocked the agriculture industry’s extensive efforts to persuade him to change course. “They have some of the greatest lobbying teams ever put together,” he said, taking pride in his unwillingness to be convinced. Ultimately, Trump argued, farmers “will be the biggest beneficiary” of his policies.
...
Trump received one of his loudest and most sustained applause when he attacked the news media for its reporting on his trade policies and other issues.
...
Although Trump was warmly received by many veterans in the audience, some came up to a reporter following his speech to say privately that they were appalled by the tone of his remarks.

“This was a political speech,” said Dwight Perry, 66, an Army veteran from Maryland. “This is not what you do at a VFW convention. . . . He didn’t have to come out here and talk about how great he is. That’s not what you do here.”

[Rip]

Yeah, they totally should have kept their eye on the ball like we did.

There’s Nothing the U.S. Navy Can Do to Avoid a Submarine Gap

The fleet has too few attack submarines. And arresting the growing shortfall — never mind reversing it — could prove too expensive.

The Navy needs 66 nuclear-powered attack and guided-missile submarines according to a 2016 assessment by then-Navy secretary Ray Mabus. But in mid-2018 the sailing branch possessed just 56 attack and guided-missile boats — SSNs and SSGNs, respectively, in Navy parlance.
...
Despite the Navy purchasing two new Virginias every year on average since 2012, the 10-sub gap is likely to widen in the 2020s as older Los Angeles boats, which the Navy bought at high rates during the 1980s and 1990s, reach the end of their useful service lives.
...
The submarine shortage is the result of a long break in U.S. submarine production in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War. The fleet received just five new SSNs between 1990 and 1999. “In the 1990s, the Navy took a procurement holiday,” the Congressional Budget Office explained in a 2003 report.
...
The Navy has, for years, known that it could suffer an attack-boat shortage. Prior to 2016, the Navy believed it needed just 48 SSNs and SSGNs over the next 30 years. But with the resurgence of Russia’s undersea fleet and China’s sustained production of better submarine models, the U.S. Navy’s needs changed — and underpinned Mabus’s new, larger force-structure goal.

Preaching to the choir. I fully support ramping up our submarine production. That said our sub capability is still second to none.

[hepcat]

You seem to be answering most complaints about Trump this way lately.

[Defiant]

Pro-free trade Republicans were already furious with Trump's escalation of tariffs against U.S. allies and China — a multi-front trade war they say is hurting U.S. farmers and manufacturers. But the administration’s response Tuesday — sending $12 billion to farmers hurt by retaliatory tariffs to ease the pain — is the precise anathema of conservative, free-trade orthodoxy, they said.

“This is becoming more and more like a Soviet-type of economy here: Commissars deciding who’s going to be granted waivers, commissars in the administration figuring out how they’re going to sprinkle around benefits,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). “I’m very exasperated. This is serious.”

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/ ... ess-737517

[Rip]

You seem to be answering most complaints about Trump this way lately.

How is that a complaint about Trump? POTUS doesn't decide submarine funding and even if they did Trump hasn't even been in office long enough to build a sub.

[hepcat]

But he's been in office long enough to claim responsibility for everything good that's happened. Also, he claimed to have strengthened our military single handedly numerous times since taking office.

Admit it, you now regret your choice and are seeking absolution from us.

[LawBeefaroni]

For countries that supposedly see Russia as such a big threat they sure do a good job of inviting them to take what they like.

Right. Because the difference between a free Europe and Russia running rampant is Germany's spare parts budget.

More likely this is a reaction to Trump's temper tantrum at the EU and subsequent tongue pleasing of Putin.

Diplomacy is some subtle shit!

[Daehawk]

And Trump sucks at it as well as all other stuff it seems.

[Jeff V]

But he's been in office long enough to claim responsibility for everything good that's happened.

Um...he's done that since day 1.

[LordMortis]

But he's been in office long enough to claim responsibility for everything good that's happened.

Um...he's done that since day 1.

He started doing it November. That great things were happening on the anticipation of taking office.

[Defiant]

To be fair, congress is pretty revolting.

[Defiant]

Many farmers remain critical of President Donald Trump's tariffs and the damage done to commodity prices and markets but were appreciative Tuesday that he offered to provide some cash to help offset their losses.

Farmers said they would rather have Trump settle the trade disputes with China, Mexico, Canada and the European Union and get free trade flowing again.

Farmers prefer Trump do trade deals than hand them cash

[El Guapo]

To be fair, congress is pretty revolting.

Someone really should tell Corker that he is a current member of Congress, and knows several other people who are also members of Congress.

[LawBeefaroni]

Many farmers remain critical of President Donald Trump's tariffs and the damage done to commodity prices and markets but were appreciative Tuesday that he offered to provide some cash to help offset their losses.

Farmers said they would rather have Trump settle the trade disputes with China, Mexico, Canada and the European Union and get free trade flowing again.

Farmers prefer Trump do trade deals than hand them cash

Because $12B doesn't cover soy bean farmers alone, nevermind all the other farmers.

Not to mention that once customers get used to a different source, you don't get all of them back. So the smart farmers would prefer getting back to selling crops rather than taking a pittance as a handout. And being hung out to dry when the money runs out.

Trump parable #426:
"Take away a man's ability to fish and then give him a fish and he'll eat for a day and have to thank you for it!"

[LordMortis]

Trump parable #426:
"Take away a man's ability to fish and then give him a fish and he'll eat for a day and have to thank you for it!"

That sounds suspiciously like a communist parable.

[Jeff V]

Because $12B doesn't cover soy bean farmers alone, nevermind all the other farmers.

It's probably going to be shame on them if they don't plan gas corn instead of soybeans next year.

[Defiant]

[Defiant]

A victory? Or does the War on Trade continue?

European negotiators on Wednesday will present several ideas to the Trump administration for easing a trade clash with the United States, including forging a new deal among the world’s biggest automobile exporters.

But these offers may fall short of appeasing President Trump, who has expressed skepticism at past trade pacts and branded the European Union as a “foe.”

link

[GreenGoo]

Without details who knows?

They ALREADY want to do business with the US. The only reason they aren't doing more right now is Drumpf. Of course they are going to come to the table.

Let's see what they bring with them.

[Pyperkub]

The president of the party that hates taxes and government spending raised taxes that hurt farmers and then used government spending to fix the problem.

Allegedly:

The national debt today stands at $15.7 trillion.[3] Two decisions made since 2000 — tax cuts and America’s wars since September 11, 2001 — together account for roughly two-thirds of that amount.[4]

Basically the things the GOP refuses to pay for.

Calling them the party of fiscal responsibility is like calling them the party of Lincoln (or even Reagan nowadays). Maybe True once, but no longer...

[El Guapo]

Without details who knows?

They ALREADY want to do business with the US. The only reason they aren't doing more right now is Drumpf. Of course they are going to come to the table.

Let's see what they bring with them.

In theory there should be plenty of room for the EU and Trump to come to some sort of a deal that lets Trump claim victory while satisfying the EU. In practice Trump seems inherently hostile to the EU, and my expectation is that that is going to outweigh any logic of a deal. But who knows, if Trump's people are seeing enough of a political price from the tariff fight, that *might* be compelling enough to get Trump to go along.

[Holman]

Meanwhile, the WH is threatening to tariff *everything* made in China.

That means boardgames. BOARDGAMES!

[Kraken]

Without details who knows?

They ALREADY want to do business with the US. The only reason they aren't doing more right now is Drumpf. Of course they are going to come to the table.

Let's see what they bring with them.

In theory there should be plenty of room for the EU and Trump to come to some sort of a deal that lets Trump claim victory while satisfying the EU. In practice Trump seems inherently hostile to the EU, and my expectation is that that is going to outweigh any logic of a deal. But who knows, if Trump's people are seeing enough of a political price from the tariff fight, that *might* be compelling enough to get Trump to go along.

Maybe. Remember that Trump does not understand win/win negotiations. The EU will have to gin up some kind of fictional sacrifice so that they can brand themselves as losers. If they take a pratfall, they can get whatever they want from him.

[Smoove_B]

Meanwhile, the WH is threatening to tariff *everything* made in China.

That means boardgames. BOARDGAMES!

He'll reap the whirlwind on that one.

[$iljanus]

Meanwhile, the WH is threatening to tariff *everything* made in China.

That means boardgames. BOARDGAMES!

He'll reap the whirlwind on that one.

I think I’ll be wrapping up my kickstarter purchases in the very near future...

[hepcat]

I will rain down my wrath on those who keep me from my dungeon crawlers. The air will be filled with sharpened meeples and comically oversized dice. I will drive my enemies before me, and I will listen to the lamentations of Melania as she sees her meal ticket struck down with a weighted dice tower.

[LordMortis]

I will rain down my wrath on those who keep me from my dungeon crawlers. The air will be filled with sharpened meeples and comically oversized dice. I will drive my enemies before me, and I will listen to the lamentations of Melania as she sees her meal ticket struck down with a weighted dice tower.

One of my friends makes 3rd party minis for Dungeon Crawlers. Specifically Mutant Crawlers. You should sign up for his game at Gencon. I haven't RPGed with him in a long long time but he used to run a very run game. Check out Dark Platypus on Facebook and you can see some samples of his sculpts. If you have an OctoTiki, he made those for me way back when. Sign up for his game and bring the Tiki...

[hepcat]

Thanks, I'll look into it!

[Jolor]

Meanwhile, the WH is threatening to tariff *everything* made in China.

Baseball caps exempt?

[Smoove_B]

Meanwhile, the WH is threatening to tariff *everything* made in China.

Baseball caps exempt?

And re-election campaign flags.

[Isgrimnur]

CNBC

The possibility of a record soybean harvest will only add to the woes of an industry already "devastated" by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, Ohio soybean farmer Chris Gibbs told CNBC on Friday.

Earlier in the day, the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicted U.S. soybean production for the 2018-19 crop year would hit 4.586 billion bushels, topping market forecasts. The news sent soybean futures plunging on Friday, falling more than 4.5 percent. It was their worst day since the July low.

"The effect of the trade war has been very devastating on soybean farmers here. We've taken a 20 percent drop in price," Gibbs said on "Power Lunch."

"What we're seeing with market action today only exacerbates the fact that we have lost our No. 1 customer because of the trade wars."