Trump Trade War

[Rip]

If some of them want to cozy up to the likes of China and Russia let them. Let me know how that works out for them.

Am I the only one who finds listing Hong Kong as a major importer for China a little awkward given Hong Kong is China?

So we think Japan and Taiwan are going to give us the finger and jump in bed with China? Yea, right.

[LordMortis]

If some of them want to cozy up to the likes of China and Russia let them. Let me know how that works out for them.

Am I the only one who finds listing Hong Kong as a major importer for China a little awkward given Hong Kong is China?

So we think Japan and Taiwan are going to give us the finger and jump in bed with China? Yea, right.

Did you read any of ND's link? I guess you think MIT is biased by Chinese propaganda? Or perhaps fake news?

The top export destinations of China are the United States ($385B), Hong Kong ($287B), Japan ($129B), South Korea ($93.7B) and Germany ($65.2B). The top import origins are Hong Kong ($285B), South Korea ($124B), the United States ($115B), Japan ($113B) and Germany ($85.4B).

Also who have we been shitting on most? Mexico, Canada, and China? While turning on Britain?

The top export destinations of the United States are Canada ($266B), Mexico ($229B), China ($115B), Japan ($63.2B) and the United Kingdom ($55.3B). The top import origins are China ($385B), Mexico ($302B), Canada ($296B), Japan ($130B) and Germany ($118B).

WINNING!

We wont have to let you know how well cozying up to Russia works out for them. We'll be living it first hand.

[Isgrimnur]

Nd’s link.

[NickAragua]

Did you read any of Izzy's link? I guess you think MIT is biased by Chinese propaganda? Or perhaps fake news?

Well, MIT *is* a bunch of fancy pants educated liberal east coast elites. I'll tell you what, I'm heading down to Texas in a couple of weeks, I'll ask some of my grandfather's friends at Texas A&M if they can corroborate that research.

Unless the Rip guys don't trust the liberal pansies at Texas A&M either? Then we're out of luck.

[LordMortis]

Nd’s link.

yes, yes. That's exactly what I said.

[GreenGoo]

If some of them want to cozy up to the likes of China and Russia let them.

Er...you have no say in the matter. They traded with the US because it was beneficial. If it's no longer beneficial, they'll trade with someone else. That's how trade works.

There's no "let them".

edit: Just to point out that no one cozies up to China quite like the US. That's why this trade war is a bad idea for the US. The rest of us have places to go. Where does the US go if China is out of the picture?

[LordMortis]

And don't forget Trump's fancy pants liberal elite east coast state department.

https://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2747.htm

U.S. policy toward Hong Kong is stated in the U.S.-Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 and grounded in the determination to promote Hong Kong's prosperity, autonomy, and way of life. The United States maintains substantial economic and political interests in Hong Kong. The U.S. supports Hong Kong's autonomy under the "One Country, Two Systems" framework by concluding and implementing bilateral agreements; promoting trade and investment; broadening law enforcement cooperation; bolstering educational, academic, and cultural links; supporting high-level visits of U.S. officials; and serving the large community of U.S. citizens and visitors.

Or perhaps Fox and Friends hasn't ranted to make him change another sign of the failure of Obama administration yet? You know Obama did push rubber tarriffs with China after all. None of you bitched then? Don't look it up! Clinton ran the State department then! You can't trust any of you when it comes to Clinton.

[Alefroth]

No worries, just tack on tariffs to a bunch more stuff. In the end they need our market WAY more than we need theirs. They are hoping that political forces force him to back off but if they don't this is a fight China can't win.

LOL.

Why LOL? Rip is right. The moment the US stops buying Chinese goods, thats all she wrote for China. China is only a state at this point, the Communist party only rules because of explosive growth powered by American buying. We destroyed our middle class to build theirs. Everyone in China is quiet cause they are getting rich.

Take that away and China collapses like the Soviet Union.

What do you think happens to us when we stop buying Chinese goods?

[noxiousdog]

What do you think happens to us when we stop buying Chinese goods?

We pay higher prices for ours or someone else's products. It's not the end of the world.

[Pyperkub]

What do you think happens to us when we stop buying Chinese goods?

We pay higher prices for ours or someone else's products. It's not the end of the world.

Actually, inflation becomes a serious beast, as the list of what we consume but don't produce has been growing for decades due to our free trade policies. The US is largely a service economy now. Trump's unilateral actions with regards to NAFTA will also make this much more painful if Mexico (very likely) and Canada (less likely, but also hit with tariffs) don't kowtow to Trump.

Additionally, there is the threat of china dumping all of their treasury bonds, likely leading to a snowball effect.

[Alefroth]

What do you think happens to us when we stop buying Chinese goods?

We pay higher prices for ours or someone else's products. It's not the end of the world.

Easy to say when you can afford to pay higher prices. It doesn't have to be the end of the world. Do you think it won't be disruptive?

[noxiousdog]

Additionally, there is the threat of china dumping all of their treasury bonds, likely leading to a snowball effect.

China doesn't hold that many of those either in the grand scale.

It's not optimal and it's dumb, but we're talking a less than a percentage point of GDP growth likely.

[LordMortis]

Additionally, there is the threat of china dumping all of their treasury bonds, likely leading to a snowball effect.

My reading has been this is not as dangerous as it sounds. It's not good but not the Armageddon it's made out to be. But then I'm no economist and could easily be duped.

On short notice

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_ ... ted_States

On November 7, 2016, debt held by the public was $14.3 trillion or about 76% of the previous 12 months of GDP.[5][6][7][8] Intragovernmental holdings stood at $5.4 trillion, giving a combined total gross national debt of $19.8 trillion or about 106% of the previous 12 months of GDP.[7] As of December 2017, $6.3 trillion or approximately 45% of the debt held by the public was owned by foreign investors, the largest of which were Japan (about $1.06 trillion) and China (about $1.18 trillion).[9]

[Pyperkub]

Additionally, there is the threat of china dumping all of their treasury bonds, likely leading to a snowball effect.

My reading has been this is not as dangerous as it sounds. It's not good but not the Armageddon it's made out to be. But then I'm no economist and could easily be duped.

On short notice

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_ ... ted_States

On November 7, 2016, debt held by the public was $14.3 trillion or about 76% of the previous 12 months of GDP.[5][6][7][8] Intragovernmental holdings stood at $5.4 trillion, giving a combined total gross national debt of $19.8 trillion or about 106% of the previous 12 months of GDP.[7] As of December 2017, $6.3 trillion or approximately 45% of the debt held by the public was owned by foreign investors, the largest of which were Japan (about $1.06 trillion) and China (about $1.18 trillion).[9]

It's whether others get scared off by an ~5% selloff. It could impact institutional investors (with automated sell/buy orders) as well as other nation-states. When coupled with a Trade War and ballooning deficit, it could mark a sea change in world economies as well as the US economy.

Could. It is really tough to determine if it could snowball. It could be a nothingburger (would be in a bull market, as it was last time they sold bonds), but in a bear market, it could magnify everything else happening a downturning market.

[Carpet_pissr]

Am I the only one who finds listing Hong Kong as a major importer for China a little awkward given Hong Kong is China?

Good eye! Most people don’t notice that. Those are primarily re-exports, and/or goods that are ultimately bound elsewhere. Interestingly, if you look at the raw data, China is almost always one of the top three trading partners to itself.

[Rip]

Am I the only one who finds listing Hong Kong as a major importer for China a little awkward given Hong Kong is China?

Good eye! Most people don’t notice that. Those are primarily re-exports, and/or goods that are ultimately bound elsewhere. Interestingly, if you look at the raw data, China is almost always one of the top three trading partners to itself.

I guess it isn't much different than us and Canada. Let them think they are independent even though they obviously aren't.....

[Zarathud]

China is only a state at this point, the Communist party only rules because of explosive growth powered by American buying. We destroyed our middle class to build theirs. Everyone in China is quiet cause they are getting rich.

Take that away and China collapses like the Soviet Union.

China can sell to their own middle class and leave ours screwed, if they want to become like America. The Chinese think long term. Trump can't think past the next 5 minutes.

The US will not win a trade war under a Trump Administration. Never.

The moment the world gives up on American economic leadership and a stable US dollar, our national debt and economy become unsustainable. Trump is steering the US towards economic oblivion.

[Victoria Raverna]

No worries, just tack on tariffs to a bunch more stuff. In the end they need our market WAY more than we need theirs. They are hoping that political forces force him to back off but if they don't this is a fight China can't win.

LOL.

Why LOL? Rip is right. The moment the US stops buying Chinese goods, thats all she wrote for China. China is only a state at this point, the Communist party only rules because of explosive growth powered by American buying. We destroyed our middle class to build theirs. Everyone in China is quiet cause they are getting rich.

Take that away and China collapses like the Soviet Union.

LOL.

[Kraken]

This might be a so-obvious-it's-dumb kind of question: tariffs go to the treasury, right? So 25% on $100B raises $25B?

Yeah, it's chump change in our new trillion-dollar deficit era, and the retaliation will cost something in depressed economic activity. But still, $25B more in the piggy bank, amiright?

[Zarathud]

$25B - lost taxes on economic downturn

It's reverse trickle down economics. Burn it down economics?

[GreenGoo]

This might be a so-obvious-it's-dumb kind of question: tariffs go to the treasury, right? So 25% on $100B raises $25B?

Yeah, it's chump change in our new trillion-dollar deficit era, and the retaliation will cost something in depressed economic activity. But still, $25B more in the piggy bank, amiright?

Minus the lost tax revenue on every item that someone can no longer (or chooses not to) buy, assuming you're in a state with sales tax.

Of course the tax revenue on the items people choose to buy anyway will be higher on a per item basis.

Minus any loss in imports that simply don't make it to the united states because it's too expensive for Chinese exporters.

The reason tariffs are a bad idea is that they reduce trade.

If you had to pay an additional 25% tax on your store items, that would kill your profits, so you pass that 25% on to the consumer. What do you think an increase of 25% would do to your sales (assuming you were still in that business)?

[GreenGoo]

$25B - lost taxes on economic downturn

It's reverse trickle down economics. Burn it down economics?

Yeah, what he said.

[Rip]

Or you might be able to get them locally for 10% above what the CHinese one was. Viola you created a job for a fellow American.

[Holman]

Or you might be able to get them locally for 10% above what the CHinese one was.

That sounds good and easy to win.

[malchior]

Or you might be able to get them locally for 10% above what the CHinese one was. Viola you created a job for a fellow American.

Great except for the fact that we are out of skilled workers so unemployment is at historic lows. And unskilled labor is strained too but fuck it if that job would go to a brown person desperate to improve their life.

[raydude]

Or you might be able to get them locally for 10% above what the CHinese one was. Viola you created a job for a fellow American.

"might" being the operative word. If the product is something that's no longer made in America then it takes a finite amount of time to start the production of said product. In the meantime China can just partner with its neighbors and say "Hey Vietnam, if I sell you product X, can you turn around and sell it to the US for me?" And that's a win-win for both China and its neighbors, and a lose-lose for us.

[noxiousdog]

Or you might be able to get them locally for 10% above what the CHinese one was. Viola you created a job for a fellow American.

1) We are at full employment.
2) You just created a job for low value goods which is why we import from China, therefore likely paying less.

[Pyperkub]

Jobs report lower than expected, but not due to tariffs:

America added 103,000 jobs in March, slower than previous months and well below expectations.

Economists had predicted 185,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, the lowest since 2000. It has come down steadily from a peak of 10% in 2009.

Wages grew 2.7% in March compared with a year ago, in line with expectations. Wage growth is one of the few yardsticks in the job market not to pick up meaningfully in recent years.

Job gains for January and February were revised down by a total of 50,000 jobs...

... Economists say it's unlikely the trade concerns contributed to the slowdown in job growth. The Labor Department does its monthly surveys around the 12th day in every month. The United States didn't start to signal tariffs on China until late March.

The steel and aluminum tariffs were announced earlier in the month. But the companies that could be hurt by those, such as auto manufacturers, make up a small slice of total jobs

[Rip]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-brac ... 1522920600

U.S. aluminum prices are falling despite a tariff aimed at boosting domestic production of the metal.

That’s good news for manufacturers of products such as beer cans and car hoods, which are paying 3% less for aluminum than they were before the Trump administration announced the tariff on March 1. These manufacturers said at the time that the 10% tariff on foreign aluminum could push up prices and cause a domestic aluminum shortage just as their orders pick up in a strong economy.

[noxiousdog]

The real story.

Exempted, for now at least, are three of the largest 10 suppliers of primary unwrought aluminium to the United States last year; top supplier Canada, fourth largest Argentina and eight largest Australia.

India, sixth largest source of imports, is lobbying hard for its own carve-out.

...

Russia was the second largest shipper of aluminium to the United States last year and what happens to that metallic flow is perhaps the key question to determining the lasting market impact of tariffs.

However, the broader take-away here is that after threatening to use a sledge-hammer, the U.S. Administration has narrowed its sights on those it regards as the real targets.

A similar pattern emerges from the tariffs on aluminium products.

Four out of last year’s 10 top suppliers of aluminium plate, sheet and strip are exempt. Canada, Germany, Austria and France all duck the tariff bullet.

[LordMortis]

I'm legitimately surprised by this. I consider Reuters one of my go to sources. I would not have guessed this administration capable of anything nuanced and I've yet to see them working with Germany or Canada. Again, I'd like to be hopeful, but 15 months of history caution me here.

[Rip]

Soi what you are saying is that the administration has done a bangup job at molding the tariffs. Like I said they would.

Politically deft as well since most LIVs will simply remember the opponents screaming about the massive damage that would be done and that it turned out to be wrong. Can't expect the LIVs to catch nuance especially when the opponents failed to mention any nuance that would make their predictions less dire.

Henny Penny politics has its downsides.

[noxiousdog]

No, what it means is that they gave the toddler something he could talk about and then tried to figure out how to do the least damage possible. And since he never reads a briefing, he'll never know.

[LordMortis]

LIVs ? Is that a new Fox and Friends term?

[Isgrimnur]

As much as I hate cleaning up rip's drive-bys:

Low Information Voter

[Rip]

LIVs ? Is that a new Fox and Friends term?

Low Information Voters.

[LordMortis]

Taking that into consideration. It's apparently a current Daily Mail term... Don't read them and I don't know enough to say why I don't read them, so, meh.

[noxiousdog]

I think my favorite part of this is the tariffs are two weeks old. I know we live in a immediate reaction society, but it will be months, if not years, before the effects can be understood.

I suggest:

[Rip]

Taking that into consideration. It's apparently a current Daily Mail term... Don't read them and I don't know enough to say why I don't read them, so, meh.

Yea, totally a Daily Mail thing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/mon ... a822715da0

Our research finds that Trump has attracted a disproportionate (and unprecedented) number of “low-information voters” to his campaign. Furthermore, these voters are more likely to respond to emotional appeals — whether about the economy, immigration, Muslims, racial relations, sexism, and even hostility to the first African American U.S. president, Barack Obama. They are the ideal constituency for a candidate like Trump.

[Isgrimnur]

Well, he does love the poorly educated.