Trump Trade War

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Exodor
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Exodor »

Millions of Americans pay a “payroll tax” on their earnings, a 6.2 percent levy that is used to finance Social Security programs.

Americans pay payroll taxes on income up to $132,900,
Seems to me you could lower the rate and remove the cap and stay revenue-neutral while putting more money in most people's pockets.
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Re: Trump Trade War

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I doubt you'll get coop to support removing the cap. It's how he pays for Christmas.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Smoove_B »

He really is trying to pull all those levers to get voters excited for him, eh? Where's Paul Ryan to tell us about how awesome it will be to get an extra $1.50 in our weekly paycheck?
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur »

Smoove_B wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:26 pm Where's Paul Ryan to tell us about how awesome it will be to get an extra $1.50 in our weekly paycheck?
Looking for a house in Maryland.
For a man who claimed to so dislike Washington that he returned to Janesville, Wisconsin, every weekend he could, Paul Ryan just can’t stay away from the swamp. According to Politico, Ryan has been hunting for real estate in the area, looking to “temporarily rent” a second home in Maryland near his wife’s family, though it was not immediately clear as to why.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Smoove_B »

I hope Paul Ryan has unrelenting IBS that keeps him home-bound for the rest of his natural life.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:48 am
gilraen wrote: Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:36 am
Kraken wrote: Tue Aug 20, 2019 10:05 pm Color me skeptical that Trump will lose the truckers.
Maybe, but quite a few of them won't be truckers by the time the election rolls around.
No, they will have been put out of work by illegal immigrants and socialist Democrats. To hear them tell it, anyway.
To be fair, they'll be put out of work by coastal tech liberals most likely. The irony is those libs are mostly enabling red state business owners lining their own pockets. Especially since those business owners profit most from the GOP policies that are picking them as winners over the truckers. Oh what a time to be alive.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Holman »

Isgrimnur wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:29 pm
For a man who claimed to so dislike Washington that he returned to Janesville, Wisconsin, every weekend he could, Paul Ryan just can’t stay away from the swamp. According to Politico, Ryan has been hunting for real estate in the area, looking to “temporarily rent” a second home in Maryland near his wife’s family, though it was not immediately clear as to why.
Let me guess: is it because "GOP Speaker of the House" is really just a K-Street internship?
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:48 am No, they will have been put out of work by illegal immigrants and socialist Democrats because they are 'conservative' and they can't get a job in the field that is controlled by extremist liberals through government overreach. To hear them tell it, anyway.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by pr0ner »

"Our American companies are hereby ordered..."

What in the actual fuck.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior »

pr0ner wrote: Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:12 am "Our American companies are hereby ordered..."

What in the actual fuck.
He has lost it (and it is hard to say that considering the past). He is convincing himself that he is not going to win this election fairly so he is starting to make his fucking move. We are entering an incredibly dangerous time. I[m surprised the Dow is only down 400 this morning - a lot of financial people are making a lot of noise about getting into safer investments today. He has shattered confidence that this country is being run by a sane person.
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Re: Trump Trade War

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NY Times
Hours after China said it would increase tariffs on $75 billion worth of American goods in response to President Trump’s latest round of levies on Chinese goods, the president ordered companies in the United States to stop doing business with China and warned that he would retaliate further.

In a series of angry Twitter posts, Mr. Trump said “Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing our companies HOME and making your products in the USA.”

The president also said he was ordering the United States Postal Service and private American companies like FedEx, Amazon and UPS to search packages from China for the opioid Fentanyl and refuse delivery.

“We don’t need China and, frankly, would be far better off without them,” Mr. Trump said on Twitter. “The vast amounts of money made and stolen by China from the United States, year after year, for decades, will and must STOP.”
...
The escalation in the trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies came as China said it would raise tariffs on American-made goods, including crude oil, cars and farm products, if Mr. Trump carries through with his plan to tax an additional $300 billion worth of imports. The exchange was a sign that neither side is ready to back down from an economic conflict that has already begun to slow global growth.

China’s plan to retaliate, which was announced late on Friday in Beijing, includes putting new tariffs of 5 percent or 10 percent on American goods. Like Mr. Trump’s threatened tariffs on Chinese goods, China’s new tariffs would take effect in two stages, the first on Sept. 1 and the second on Dec. 15.
...
Markets fell on the news in afternoon trading in Europe, and the Dow Jones industrial average was down by more than 300 points, or 1.4 percent, in midday trading in New York.
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Re: Trump Trade War

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Dow down over 500 and falling.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Smoove_B »

Someone should suggest to Trump that he holds a White House lawn press conference to order the Dow to go up 800 points.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by $iljanus »

“Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China..."

His use of the word," hererby" will certainly prompt companies to comply forthwith with the CEO of the USA.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by pr0ner »

Trump doesn't think the stock market went down because of his tweets today. No sir.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Holman »

The Dow closed at -623.

Trump waited an hour and then escalated the trade war.



Tomorrow should be great.

(Also: "Thank you for your attention to this matter"? Is he writing a letter of complaint? Am I supposed to fix it?)

(Also also: as an English teacher, I literally got a headache from these postings.)
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Re: Trump Trade War

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You could make a name for yourself on Twitter by grading his posts and sending them back to him.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Holman wrote: Fri Aug 23, 2019 5:15 pm

Tomorrow should be great.

US equity markets are closed to tomorrow. He has all weekend to make it worse.

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Re: Trump Trade War

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CNN
Still, Trump flashed signs of optimism this week that the trade war could be resolved, saying he's received calls from Chinese officials saying they wanted to restart talks. Though Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin insisted there had been "communication," aides privately conceded the phone calls Trump described didn't happen they way he said they did.

Instead, two officials said Trump was eager to project optimism that might boost markets, and conflated comments from China's vice premier with direct communication from the Chinese.
Can the SEC prosecute market manipulation from a sitting politician?
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Re: Trump Trade War

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Isgrimnur wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:28 pm CNN
Still, Trump flashed signs of optimism this week that the trade war could be resolved, saying he's received calls from Chinese officials saying they wanted to restart talks. Though Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin insisted there had been "communication," aides privately conceded the phone calls Trump described didn't happen they way he said they did.

Instead, two officials said Trump was eager to project optimism that might boost markets, and conflated comments from China's vice premier with direct communication from the Chinese.
Can the SEC prosecute market manipulation from a sitting politician?
Sure.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Drazzil »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:34 pm
Isgrimnur wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:28 pm CNN
Still, Trump flashed signs of optimism this week that the trade war could be resolved, saying he's received calls from Chinese officials saying they wanted to restart talks. Though Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin insisted there had been "communication," aides privately conceded the phone calls Trump described didn't happen they way he said they did.

Instead, two officials said Trump was eager to project optimism that might boost markets, and conflated comments from China's vice premier with direct communication from the Chinese.
Can the SEC prosecute market manipulation from a sitting politician?
Sure.
This is the one of the few things Trump has done that I wholeheartedly agree with. China has been playing unfair trade for as long as I've been alive. They need a good kicking and Trump, for all his idiocy, may just be the one to give it to em.
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Re: Trump Trade War

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Drazzil wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:37 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:34 pm
Isgrimnur wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:28 pm CNN
Still, Trump flashed signs of optimism this week that the trade war could be resolved, saying he's received calls from Chinese officials saying they wanted to restart talks. Though Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin insisted there had been "communication," aides privately conceded the phone calls Trump described didn't happen they way he said they did.

Instead, two officials said Trump was eager to project optimism that might boost markets, and conflated comments from China's vice premier with direct communication from the Chinese.
Can the SEC prosecute market manipulation from a sitting politician?
Sure.
This is the one of the few things Trump has done that I wholeheartedly agree with. China has been playing unfair trade for as long as I've been alive. They need a good kicking and Trump, for all his idiocy, may just be the one to give it to em.
He wants a deal before the election. As the economy slips away he will become desperate and will take whatever terms China will give him...if they will allow him to save face at all. They can withstand more pain than he can and are used to playing a long game.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by gilraen »

Drazzil wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:37 pm This is the one of the few things Trump has done that I wholeheartedly agree with. China has been playing unfair trade for as long as I've been alive. They need a good kicking and Trump, for all his idiocy, may just be the one to give it to em.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by pr0ner »

Drazzil wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:37 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:34 pm
Isgrimnur wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:28 pm CNN
Still, Trump flashed signs of optimism this week that the trade war could be resolved, saying he's received calls from Chinese officials saying they wanted to restart talks. Though Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin insisted there had been "communication," aides privately conceded the phone calls Trump described didn't happen they way he said they did.

Instead, two officials said Trump was eager to project optimism that might boost markets, and conflated comments from China's vice premier with direct communication from the Chinese.
Can the SEC prosecute market manipulation from a sitting politician?
Sure.
This is the one of the few things Trump has done that I wholeheartedly agree with. China has been playing unfair trade for as long as I've been alive. They need a good kicking and Trump, for all his idiocy, may just be the one to give it to em.
If by give China a good kicking you mean make things worse for the common American, then yes, you're right.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LawBeefaroni »

pr0ner wrote: Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:34 am
Drazzil wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:37 pm
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:34 pm
Isgrimnur wrote: Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:28 pm CNN
Still, Trump flashed signs of optimism this week that the trade war could be resolved, saying he's received calls from Chinese officials saying they wanted to restart talks. Though Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin insisted there had been "communication," aides privately conceded the phone calls Trump described didn't happen they way he said they did.

Instead, two officials said Trump was eager to project optimism that might boost markets, and conflated comments from China's vice premier with direct communication from the Chinese.
Can the SEC prosecute market manipulation from a sitting politician?
Sure.
This is the one of the few things Trump has done that I wholeheartedly agree with. China has been playing unfair trade for as long as I've been alive. They need a good kicking and Trump, for all his idiocy, may just be the one to give it to em.
If by give China a good kicking you mean make things worse for the common American, then yes, you're right.
It's the Chinese-Americans that are the real problem so so he's doing the right thing. Immigration, immigration, immigration. You've got to break a few eggs to make an egg foo young, after all.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Drazzil »

Tariffs on Chinese goods will bring US jobs back right? Or will the corps just head to the next cheapest shithole?
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Holman »

Drazzil wrote: Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:12 pm Tariffs on Chinese goods will bring US jobs back right? Or will the corps just head to the next cheapest shithole?
Trump is bringing US jobs back to Vietnam.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken »

Holman wrote: Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:31 pm
Drazzil wrote: Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:12 pm Tariffs on Chinese goods will bring US jobs back right? Or will the corps just head to the next cheapest shithole?
Trump is bringing US jobs back to Vietnam.
That's where a lot of manufacturers will end up. Many are going to Mexico and Canada. Where US competitors exist at all, they're as likely to raise their prices as they are to expand their market share (as we saw happen with washing machines early in the game). "Bring US jobs back" presupposes that they were here to begin with. To the extent that US manufacturers even can onshore production -- supply chains are complicated, and hard or impossible to recreate domestically -- they''d rather replace cheap labor with automation than with expensive labor.

Mostly, no business wants to revamp its entire production chain against the backdrop of uncertainty caused by the trade war and the slowing global economy. If there's one thing you can trust Trump to deliver, it's chaos. Businesses are cutting back on investment and pausing expansion plans accordingly.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Jeff V »

Why would an American company want to invest in production capacity when we're heading for a recession? Why would the jobs even come here in the first place when labor is clamoring for a living wage and other countries are perfectly fine with $2/hr?
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Re: Trump Trade War

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And it isn't just capacity. It is capability. It isn't about adding an extra line at the factory, it's about the fact that the factories that make this stuff no longer exist, and the support businesses and raw material suppliers no longer exist, and the people that know how to run them aren't here. You can't just reopen closed businesses, you would have to recreate the entire industry. And that's a huge, long-term investment for a company when the tariffs are a short-term problem. What happens to all those factories when trade goes back to normal with China in a few years? Would you invest in that business, knowing that the millions it would cost would give you a business that would be useless in five or ten year? Of course not, and neither will anybody else.

Besides, if American factories did take over again, it would raise the price of manufactured goods considerably. Like 50% increases. That would mean fewer sales, and in industries where profit margins are slim, that means the company just outright closes down, and all those people are out of work.

What Trump has done is put our economy into a nose dive in order to prop up Vietnam, Mexico, India, and similar places that will now pick up where China left off.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by pr0ner »

Drazzil wrote: Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:12 pm Tariffs on Chinese goods will bring US jobs back right? Or will the corps just head to the next cheapest shithole?
No, it won't being US jobs back.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis »

Blackhawk wrote: Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:05 pm And it isn't just capacity. It is capability. It isn't about adding an extra line at the factory, it's about the fact that the factories that make this stuff no longer exist, and the support businesses and raw material suppliers no longer exist, and the people that know how to run them aren't here. You can't just reopen closed businesses, you would have to recreate the entire industry. And that's a huge, long-term investment for a company when the tariffs are a short-term problem. What happens to all those factories when trade goes back to normal with China in a few years? Would you invest in that business, knowing that the millions it would cost would give you a business that would be useless in five or ten year? Of course not, and neither will anybody else.

Besides, if American factories did take over again, it would raise the price of manufactured goods considerably. Like 50% increases. That would mean fewer sales, and in industries where profit margins are slim, that means the company just outright closes down, and all those people are out of work.

What Trump has done is put our economy into a nose dive in order to prop up Vietnam, Mexico, India, and similar places that will now pick up where China left off.
It is surprisingly easy and fast to convert a closed factory (buy lines and install them and step up logistics) and get it up and running and find people to run it. It unsurprisingly expensive to convert a closed factory easy and fast (Those fast and easy lines even when bought used, run millions of dollars to buy, install, tool, and configure). Who wants to front that cash for uncertainty? What is not fast, easy, or cheap is establishing foundries which have the bonus of being environment killers. Though, this government is very very very friendly to environment killers.

The experts you need to worry about are design engineers at the top of their game in their field. Again expense vs uncertainty. Though I suppose if you have the money to set up lines and arrange supply chains willynilly those engineers could telecommute for big dollars and then just move on should it all fall apart.
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Re: Trump Trade War

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Bloomberg
The moment usually comes during Greg Petras’s commute through the rolling hills and cornfields of southern Wisconsin. Somewhere between his home near Madison and the factory he runs on the edge of the small town of Brodhead, the news will turn to the trade wars and Donald Trump will again claim that China is bearing the cost of his tariffs. That’s when Petras loses it.

“It’s just an outright lie, and he knows it,” says Petras, president of Kuhn North America, which employs some 600 people at its farm-equipment factory in Wisconsin. For Kuhn, Trump’s trade war has produced a toxic mix of rising costs and falling revenues. “You’re slamming your fist on the steering wheel and saying ‘Why would you tell people this?’”
...
For all the debate on whether the U.S. is headed for a recession there’s plenty of evidence that corners of the economy—such as the one Petras and his employees inhabit—may already have tumbled into one.

After two boom years the picture has changed for America’s factories. Battered by rising uncertainty and the damper it has put on capital expenditures, slowing export markets, a stronger dollar, and higher input costs due to tariffs, U.S. manufacturers are making less than they did a year ago.

A widely watched index of manufacturing activity compiled by the Institute for Supply Management showed a contraction in August—the first since 2016. The Sept. 3 data release sent U.S. stock prices and bond yields tumbling as it confirmed a worrying trend that became visible over the summer, when Federal Reserve data showed factory output falling for a second consecutive quarter.

The surge in industrial jobs seen in the first two years of the Trump presidency has also gone into reverse in some parts of the country. Nationally, the U.S. has added 44,000 manufacturing jobs so far this year, according to data released on Friday. But that’s way down from the 170,000 added in the same period last year.

In 22 states—including electorally important ones like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania—the number of people working in factories actually fell in the first seven months of this year, according to figures compiled by the Economic Innovation Group, a think tank.
...
The attack on trade and globalization that Trump launched in 2016 always had a political calculus, and this helped him win a narrow victory in industrial swing states like Wisconsin. But as Trump bids for a second term there are signs he may have shot his own manufacturing recovery in the foot and undermined his own best argument—a strong economy—for reelection.

Trump bristles at the idea, portraying his trade war against China as a necessary fight against a rising economic rival. “To me, this is much more important than the economy,” Trump told reporters on Sept. 4. “Somebody had to do this.”

The president has lashed out at businesses that blame tariffs for their woes, calling them “badly run and weak,” and threatened to force American companies to abandon China.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken »

Now it's getting serious: Trump threatens 100% tariff on European olive oil, wine, and cheese.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Daehawk »

Kinda thinking that if all Europe and Asia tax all US goods then it may hurt the fool. But probably not.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken »

Olive oil, wine, and cheese are like, the three basic food groups.
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Re: Trump Trade War

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WaPo
The White House is temporarily exempting more than 400 Chinese products from tariffs activated last year as part of the U.S.'s ongoing economic sparring with Beijing.

The exclusions cover a wide range of goods, including plastic straws, coffee filters, dog leashes and car radiators, according to documents published Friday by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, and stem from more than 1,100 exclusion requests made by companies and other U.S. entities.

The decision comes as the U.S. and China are expected to meet for high-level trade talks next month and as both sides have toned down the rhetoric that has defined the year-long conflict. But the exemptions aren’t only intended to mollify Beijing but would also help American businesses hurt by President Trump’s tariffs, particularly as he and members of his administration have made inconsistent statements around the possibility of a trade deal.
...
Other products slated to be exempt from the tariffs include outdoor wick-burning torches, certain electric-powered skateboards and motorcycles, parts of swimming pool vacuum cleaners and water drinking fountains for pets.

Documents from the U.S. Trade Representative lay out three sets of exclusions. One set, which is based on tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods implemented last September, will expire in August 2020. Another set, based on tariffs of $16 billion worth of goods implemented last August, will expire this time next year. A third set of exclusions, based on tariffs on $34 billion worth of books that took effect last July, will also expire this time next year.

Last week, China said it was canceling planned tariff increases on American soybeans and pork. Days before, China had eased tariffs on 16 U.S. products, including alfalfa and lubricant oils. Trump responded by delayed a planned tariff increase on $250 billion of Chinese goods until Oct. 15 to avoid conflicts with Beijing’s plans to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the Chinese revolution.
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Re: Trump Trade War

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MarketWatch
Reports that the White House may be looking to clamp down on capital flows into China roiled Wall Street on Friday, as investors with exposure to Chinese firms struggled to make sense of what such moves would entail.

Trump administration officials were having preliminary discussions on ways to limit Chinese companies from trading on U.S. exchanges and restrict portfolio inflows into China, according to Bloomberg News, citing people familiar with the matter.
...
U.S.-listed Chinese companies have already been under pressure over complaints that the rigor of financial statements from Chinese companies were not at the same standard of U.S. firms, exposing American investors to potential corporate governance problems and outright fraud.

Two bipartisan bills have been introduced in Congress aimed at pushing U.S.-listed Chinese firms to comply with auditing rules in the U.S. and if those companies failed to submit to regulatory oversight, they would face delisting.

Beijing has long pushed back on moves to allow overseas regulators to examine the audit work of domestic accounting firms.
...
The breakout of trade tensions between U.S. and China about two years ago has led some in Washington to push for a broader decoupling of financial ties between the two countries, drawing Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. into the cross-sights of more hawkish members of Congress.

Analysts say this pressure may have led some Chinese companies to look for other listing venues. Alibaba announced it would hold its second listing in Hong Kong. Those plans, however, were postponed after the Asian financial center was rocked by protests in the past few months.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Isgrimnur
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur »

MarketWatch
American manufacturers posted the biggest contraction in September since the end of the 2007-2009 recession, reflecting a slowdown in the U.S. and global economies made worse by a tense trade war with China.

The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index fell to 47.8% last month from 49.1%, marking the lowest level since June 2009. That’s when the Great Recession ended.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast the index to total 50.2%.
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President Trump quickly took to Twitter to blast the Federal Reserve again, blaming the central bank for keeping U.S. interest rates too high.
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Production, employment and inventories all declined in September. The index for new orders actually rose a tick to 47.3%, but it’s still at the weakest level in a decade.

Another bad sign: Only three of the 18 U.S. manufacturing industries tracked by ISM reported growth, down from nine in the prior month.
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Manufacturing weakness is close to dangerous levels. Historically, readings under 46 are consistent with recession,” said senior economist Chris Low of FTN Financial. “Manufacturing is a small part of the economy, but it is a vitally important one, producing income and multiplier effects, especially in the Midwest."
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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em2nought
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by em2nought »

Kraken wrote: Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:04 pm Now it's getting serious: Trump threatens 100% tariff on European olive oil, wine, and cheese.
I better hurry and buy that Transylvanian Cave Cheese at Aldi. :mrgreen:

There's been some experimenting with replacing orange groves with olive trees in Florida. :idea:
Technically, he shouldn't be here.
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