Moderators: LawBeefaroni, $iljanus
I was too subtle? I was going for subtle.
I don’t know the answer, but how much of the trade being hit with tariffs is actually US companies? Or, how much will American companies absorb the loss in order to maintain marketshare while waiting out the trade war. If they would do so. If they are willing to try to wait out, does that change the short-term outlook? With Trump going after China and the EU it seems they could develop a warmer relationship, but maybe they are incompatible for further development. The TPP was supposed to help keep China in check, but we walked away from that.Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:38 pmDevil's advocate: China has a smaller economy than the US and exports more to the US than the US exports to China. Therefore the tariffs affect a bigger share of China's economy than ours, leaving aside the effect on consumer prices.Fitzy wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:12 am
Hypothetically assuming you are correct about the leverage, wouldn’t that be based on the effect of the tariffs on each countries population? So wouldn’t the Chinese have more leverage because increased prices will cause more dissatisfaction here than in China? Each job loss here will be reported heavily and felt heavily, whereas in China I would think they will be ignored or the people can be forceably reassigned. Or are you suggesting that China is more open to public pressure than reported?
Add to that, that Trump isn’t just fighting with China, he tossed in most of the rest of the wealthy countries, so we have the effects of multiple tariffs, across multiple sectors, hitting multiple people.
I’m just not seeing where this leverage is coming from.
Trade is multilateral, and China is not starting fights all over the world. In the medium to long term, they can find other customers for their goods, especially if the US continues to alienate its most important trading partners. In the short term, though losing US exports will hurt China more, and Xi can't tolerate much of that in light of an already-slowing economy. So: short-term advantage goes to the US, insofar as anybody benefits from trade wars.
Yeah, that was basically what I was arguing, that they can absorb far more damage to their people than we would tolerate here which would seem to eliminate our leverage.
Meh, the DOW is a short-term pain, loss of $.99 toilet paper is forever!noxiousdog wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:43 am
The DOW has fallen 700 points in two days and it's being blamed (rightly or wrongly) on tariff worries. I don't think we're going to have to worry about the toilet paper metaphor for pushback.
Perhaps I'm just being ignorant, but the strongest connection I can make between those two links are that they are both blue.Daehawk wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:00 pm After 110 years GE is dropped from Dow Jones
Bus riders told they must be US citizens to ride bus
How long before we stand in line for our commie Trump card so we can stand in line for toilet paper near the Politburo?
Swamped by a flood of applications — more than four times the number initially expected — Commerce Department officials have cobbled together a team of employees and outside contractors with varying levels of technical expertise to review the waiver requests, according to a senior department official.
The evaluators — including trainees with limited experience in complex steel and aluminum markets — have found the subject matter confusing. Some industry executives and department officials expect that the overworked reviewers probably will approve applications that no domestic metals producer contests and reject the roughly one-third that draw objections — whatever their technical merits.
“It’s going to be so unbelievably random, and some companies are going to get screwed,” the senior Commerce Department official said. “These people are making multibillion-dollar, unbelievably uninformed decisions.”
Only metal products that are unavailable from U.S. producers are eligible for the waivers.
The first decisions will be released as soon as this week, said James Rockas, the Commerce Department’s deputy director of public affairs.
Officials have promised to issue decisions within 90 days, but that doesn’t include the month it can take to acknowledge applications on a government website.
The staffing issues cap a cumbersome process that is adding red tape to U.S. manufacturing even as the Trump administration boasts of its deregulation efforts.
The process also will increase manufacturers’ costs. If their waiver bids are rejected, companies will either buy from more expensive U.S. mills or pay the import tax to keep using their current material.
Following a three-hour crash course, evaluators are assigned to review five-page Excel spreadsheet applications from U.S. manufacturers containing detailed descriptions of steel and aluminum products that applicants say cannot be acquired from domestic producers. At issue are metals used to produce auto parts, oil and gas pipelines, factory tooling and other items used through the economy.
Companies must specify the type of metal — including its 10-digit tariff code, chemical composition, finish, strength and dimensions — and explain their efforts to obtain it from domestic sources. Inside Commerce — and among the roughly 300 companies so far that have requested exclusions — there are doubts about the evaluators’ ability to render timely and accurate decisions.
“Knowledge of the market is a lifelong pursuit,” said Lewis Leibowitz, a Washington attorney who represents several applicants. “There are thousands and thousands of different steel products and specifications. . . . Three hours won’t do it.”
The department declined to specify the number of individuals assigned to review exclusion requests, calling it a “Commerce-wide effort.
Congress has approved shifting $1 million from other programs to fund this year’s reviews, and officials are confident the evaluators have sufficient technical expertise, Rockas said.
The department also plans to hire an unknown number of additional contractors to help, but it will take time to bring them on board.
CNBC
Chinese acquisitions and investments in the U.S. fell 92 percent to just $1.8 billion in the first five months of this year, consulting and research firm Rhodium Group said Tuesday.
Counting divestitures, net Chinese deal flow to the U.S. during that time was a negative $7.8 billion, the report said.
...
But now, China wants to limit capital flight and excessive leverage. The U.S. is worried about intellectual property protection and has increased scrutiny of deals on the basis of national security. The Trump administration has also threatened restrictions on investment based on a "Section 301" investigation, the same study that led to the latest tariff announcements.
As a result, acquisitions worth more than $2 billion in the first five months of this year have fallen apart, Rhodium Group's Thilo Hanemann said. They include Alibaba-affiliate Ant Financial's proposed merger with MoneyGram, HNA's plans to acquire Anthony Scaramucci's SkyBridge Capital and China-backed fund Sino IC Capital's efforts to buy semiconductor testing company Xcerra.
...
To be sure, the figures on annual changes are small compared with aggregate foreign direct investment in the last two decades and do not contribute much to gross domestic product.
New U.S. tariffs could also give Chinese manufacturers the incentive to produce in America, the Rhodium report pointed out.
Boy, it's almost like economists are right in saying trade wars inevitably escalate and end up hurting everyone.
Where does great and powerful orange one even get they are moving to Thailand and using Tariffs as an excuse?Jun 25, 2018 04:28:06 PM Surprised that Harley-Davidson, of all companies, would be the first to wave the White Flag. I fought hard for them and ultimately they will not pay tariffs selling into the E.U., which has hurt us badly on trade, down $151 Billion. Taxes just a Harley excuse - be patient! #MAGA
Jun 26, 2018 06:16:36 AM Early this year Harley-Davidson said they would move much of their plant operations in Kansas City to Thailand. That was long before Tariffs were announced. Hence, they were just using Tariffs/Trade War as an excuse. Shows how unbalanced & unfair trade is, but we will fix it.....
Jun 26, 2018 06:37:51 AM ....When I had Harley-Davidson officials over to the White House, I chided them about tariffs in other countries, like India, being too high. Companies are now coming back to America. Harley must know that they won’t be able to sell back into U.S. without paying a big tax!
Jun 26, 2018 07:17:49 AM A Harley-Davidson should never be built in another country-never! Their employees and customers are already very angry at them. If they move, watch, it will be the beginning of the end - they surrendered, they quit! The Aura will be gone and they will be taxed like never before!
What you have is a plant that can sell to the EU cheaper to sustain sales tariffs go up after it was already being built to serve and Asian market. Such a great businessman but its only great business when he does it and he puts his trading partners out of business with legal fees and reorganization bankruptcies.Getty Images
Motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson Inc. said on Thursday it will build a plant in Thailand, a major Asian automotive hub, to serve the growing Southeast Asian market, a move criticized by a U.S. labor union.
The company did not give a figure for the planned investment in Thailand's Rayong province, southeast of Bangkok.
Katie Whitmore, Harley-Davidson public relations manager, said the company had its best results in Asia-Pacific in 2016, though she gave no numbers.
The Thailand facility "will allow us to be more responsive and competitive in the Asean region and China," Harley-Davidson public relations manager Katie Whitmore said.
"Increased access and affordability for our customers in the region is key to growth for the company in total," she said. "There is no intent to reduce H-D U.S. manufacturing due to this expansion."
A Harley-Davidson should never be built in another country-never! Their employees and customers are already very angry at them. If they move, watch, it will be the beginning of the end - they surrendered, they quit! The Aura will be gone and they will be taxed like never before!
Harley-Davidson Inc. has received approval to assemble motorcycles in Brazil. The Milwaukee company will import its U.S.-made components for assembly in Manaus, Brazil, an economic free-trade zone for motorcycle manufacturing and other industries. ... The final assembly operation will be a joint venture between Harley-Davidson Motor Co. and Paulo Izzo, Harley-Davidson's representative in Brazil. Harley-Davidson will maintain a majority interest in the venture.
How he manages to pack so much stupid and just flat-out wrong into a couple sentences is truly quite amazing.....When I had Harley-Davidson officials over to the White House, I chided them about tariffs in other countries, like India, being too high. Companies are now coming back to America. Harley must know that they won’t be able to sell back into U.S. without paying a big tax!
Harley-Davidson manufactures its motorcycles at factories in York, Pennsylvania; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Kansas City, Missouri (closing); Manaus, Brazil; and Bawal, India.
Only the ones who call him out by name. Keep your head down and he doesn't care.GreenGoo wrote:It's like companies are only allowed to operate within the continental united states and any venturing beyond the borders is treason.
I hate this guy so very, very much.
Trump like loyalty above all else. Loyalty to him or the country? Well... Let's let the investigation take its course....
They drive $75K pickups towing $20K boats. Why can't they ride a $9K bike?
I refute this statement. Unless we're confused about who his base is, there seems little chance that coal country supports $100k worth of toys in addition to a mortgage and food. Unless the truck can be written off somehow, and if it can, can the harley as well?LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:20 am
They drive $75K pickups towing $20K boats. Why can't they ride a $9K bike?
GreenGoo wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:25 amI refute this statement. Unless we're confused about who his base is, there seems little chance that coal country supports $100k worth of toys in addition to a mortgage and food. Unless the truck can be written off somehow, and if it can, can the harley as well?LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:20 am
They drive $75K pickups towing $20K boats. Why can't they ride a $9K bike?
If coal country, the absence of manufacturing jobs country and general low education employment country can afford all these things already, WTF have they been complaining about all this time for anyway? Do they want TWO $75k trucks?
For example, a March 2016 NBC survey that we analyzed showed that only a third of Trump supporters had household incomes at or below the national median of about $50,000. Another third made $50,000 to $100,000, and another third made $100,000 or more and that was true even when we limited the analysis to only non-Hispanic whites. If being working class means being in the bottom half of the income distribution, the vast majority of Trump supporters during the primaries were not working class.
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To look at it another way, among white people without college degrees who voted for Trump, nearly 60 percent were in the top half of the income distribution. In fact, one in five white Trump voters without a college degree had a household income over $100,000.
Observers have often used the education gap to conjure images of poor people flocking to Trump, but the truth is, many of the people without college degrees who voted for Trump were from middle- and high-income households. That’s the basic problem with using education to measure the working class.
In short, the narrative that attributes Trump’s victory to a “coalition of mostly blue-collar white and working-class voters” just doesn’t square with the 2016 election data.
FTFY.LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:33 amFor example, a March 2016 NBC survey that we analyzed showed that having money didn't make you a better person, and being poor doesn't automatically make you deplorable.
Yeah, expanded quote to support that point.Paingod wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:35 amFTFY.LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:33 amFor example, a March 2016 NBC survey that we analyzed showed that having money didn't make you a better person, and being poor doesn't automatically make you deplorable.
My first guess is "Unions"
Full-time workers age 25 and older without a high school diploma had median weekly earnings of $494 in the first quarter of 2016. That compares with a median of $679 for high school graduates who never attended college and $782 for workers with some college or an associate degree. Median weekly earnings were $1,155 for workers with a bachelor's degree and $1,435 for workers with an advanced degree—a master’s, professional, or doctoral degree.
My first thought was tradesmen. Plumbers, welders, electricians, and carpenters all make phat loot.
I don't have a college degree and have earned over $300K one year. Lack of a college degree != uneducated. I have enough technical certification to line an entire wall with. I know dozenss of people who make $100K or more by themselves and few of them have degrees.GreenGoo wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:43 am Then wtf are they complaining about? Why do they give two shits about washers and dryers being manufactured in America if they are employed and make more than most Americans?
It doesn't make a lick of sense.
Worse, how can low education people make more than the average american, assuming high education people are included in these numbers? Isgrim's reports on employment SHOW that low education is a sure way to less employment.
Honestly Lawbeef, something doesn't add up, but I'm not sure what it is.
How do you make six figures in America without a college education? Obviously I can think of examples, but we're talking whole swathes of people, not just the occasional outlier.
That poll implies that there are $50k (assuming 2 person households) jobs just waiting around for uneducated people to apply to. How is that possible? What fields are they in? If education is not a barrier to a good paying job, WTF is the problem that the GOP base have been complaining about? I don't get it.
Similarly, professions like long-haul truck drivers have paid comparatively well (although those salaries have been falling in the past few years). Also, many oil and gas rig jobs are "unskilled" in that you can start out without any formal education and can work your way up to 6 figures.Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:01 pmMy first thought was tradesmen. Plumbers, welders, electricians, and carpenters all make phat loot.
gilraen wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:23 pmSimilarly, professions like long-haul truck drivers have paid comparatively well (although those salaries have been falling in the past few years). Also, many oil and gas rig jobs are "unskilled" in that you can start out without any formal education and can work your way up to 6 figures.Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:01 pmMy first thought was tradesmen. Plumbers, welders, electricians, and carpenters all make phat loot.
I used to know a guy who was a programming genius - never graduated college but made a lot of money. So I'm sure there are computer prodigies, entrepreneurs, etc. out there who skew the numbers somewhat. But this category is more of an exception than a rule.