Trump Trade War

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GreenGoo
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo »

Drazzil wrote: Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:59 pm Step 1: Slash corporate taxes to historic lows.

Step 2:Roll back EPA regulations.

Step 3: Announce trade war with China.

One might surmise Trump may be trying to bring back American manufacturing?

I am NOT for an open trade war and the short term disruption of the economy that that may entail, however the American worker has gotten screwed since the 70's so this may serve to correct that.... I hope.
Who is going to be able to afford to buy any of that stuff?

You understand that the money for those jobs has to come from somewhere, right?

Washington Post article on what happens when Drumpf brings manufacturing "back" to America. Washing Machines
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Rip »

Not worried. China can't afford to lose the $500B+ of exports to the U.S. over $150B it imports. They have already tariffed nearly as much as they can. We can still shit on another $400B+ they have no way to respond to economically.

It isn't a matter of if they back down but when.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo »

Honest to fuck Rip, you just never cease to amaze.

The most likely outcome of trade wars is the deterioration of any economies involved in them. You and drumpf seem to have similar understandings of modern economics. Which makes sense, I guess.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Fitzy »

Eh, it worked in 1930, why wouldn’t it work now?
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Drazzil »

GreenGoo wrote: Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:07 pm
Drazzil wrote: Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:59 pm Step 1: Slash corporate taxes to historic lows.

Step 2:Roll back EPA regulations.

Step 3: Announce trade war with China.

One might surmise Trump may be trying to bring back American manufacturing?

I am NOT for an open trade war and the short term disruption of the economy that that may entail, however the American worker has gotten screwed since the 70's so this may serve to correct that.... I hope.
Who is going to be able to afford to buy any of that stuff?

You understand that the money for those jobs has to come from somewhere, right?

Washington Post article on what happens when Drumpf brings manufacturing "back" to America. Washing Machines
I'm not for defending Trump, but speaking as a guy who supposedly "made the right choices" but still found himself left behind... I cant help but think that the multinational elite, and their wholly owned news subsidiaries are screaming because for a change someone who they plunked into office is screwing *them*, rather then just the working class.

Now I wouldn't put it past the powers that be to tank the economy out of spite, or to yank the chain as it were.

I dunno.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Exodor »

Drazzil wrote: Fri Jun 15, 2018 11:13 pm I cant help but think that the multinational elite, and their wholly owned news subsidiaries are screaming because for a change someone who they plunked into office is screwing *them*, rather then just the working class.
Yes I'm sure the Manhattan billionaire will do everything he can to benefit the working class at the expense of moneyed elites.

For example, tax cut bill
The tax plan helps businesses more than individuals. Business tax cuts are permanent, while the individual cuts expire in 2025.

Among individuals, it would help higher-income families the most. The Tax Foundation said those in the 95 to 99 percent range would receive a 2.2 percent increase in after-tax income. Those in the 20-80 percent income range would receive a 1.7 percent increase.

The Tax Policy Center broke it down a little more. Those in the lowest-earning fifth of the population would see their income increase by 0.4 percent. Those in the next-highest fifth would receive a 1.2 percent boost. The next two quintiles would see their income increase 1.6 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. But the biggest increase, 2.9 percent, would go to those in the top-earning fifth.

The Act makes the U.S. progressive income tax more regressive. Tax rates are lowered for everyone, but they are lowered the most for the highest-income taxpayers.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Blackhawk »

Trump isn't really targeting the elite or the working class. He's flailing around wildly and hitting things at random.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Drazzil »

Blackhawk wrote: Sat Jun 16, 2018 11:15 am Trump isn't really targeting the elite or the working class. He's flailing around wildly and hitting things at random.
Yep.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo »

Blackhawk wrote: Sat Jun 16, 2018 11:15 am Trump isn't really targeting the elite or the working class. He's flailing around wildly and hitting things at random.
While he is flailing around wildly, he very clearly is trying to make things better for himself and that is often at the expense of everyone else.

The idea that Drumpf would do a single thing for someone in drazzil's position is laughable.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by em2nought »

Hmm, it looks like the market is betting on the US dollar. Gold is falling. :mrgreen:

If Trump appears to be flailing it's because so many things have happened during the last fifty years that need to be bitch slapped back into working order. There are lots of targets to flail at. It's like Don Quixote went to the Netherlands. :mrgreen:
Technically, he shouldn't be here.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Alefroth »

em2nought wrote: Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:03 pm
It's like Don Quixote went to the Netherlands. :mrgreen:
Exactly. Now you probably need to look up what tilting at windmills means.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo »

He's halfway there.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by em2nought »

GreenGoo wrote: Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:20 pm He's halfway there.

Still a long way to go
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgnJ8GpsBG8

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Technically, he shouldn't be here.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Paingod »

Drazzil wrote: Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:59 pm Step 1: Slash corporate taxes to historic lows.

Step 2:Roll back EPA regulations.

Step 3: Announce trade war with China.

One might surmise Trump may be trying to bring back American manufacturing?

I am NOT for an open trade war and the short term disruption of the economy that that may entail, however the American worker has gotten screwed since the 70's so this may serve to correct that.... I hope.
What we need is economic adaptation, not restoration. Bringing back the glory days of robber barons and pollution isn't going to end well for the world. We need smarter business, focus on ecology, and that's going to sting people with limited employment options. The coverage on that should be some sort of guaranteed basic income, not specifically welfare, and health coverage for everyone. As technology replaces people, we need to take care of people that are displaced, not abandon them to trailer parks, opioids, and suicide.

It's motherf%#$ing Star Trek... and about as likely.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur »

Mark you calendars.

Bloomberg
The U.S. and China moved to the brink of a trade war on Friday after the Trump administration announced tariffs on Chinese imports would take effect in three weeks and pledged additional investment restrictions, prompting an immediate vow of retaliation from Beijing.

The world’s No. 2 economy will impose tariffs with the “same scale and intensity” on imports from the U.S., and all of China’s earlier trade commitments are now off the table, according to government statements. U.S. goods slated for levies include farm products such as soybeans, a potential blow to rural states that backed President Donald Trump’s election in 2016.
...
The first wave of 25 percent tariffs will hit $34 billion in goods and take effect July 6, with another $16 billion still to be reviewed, the U.S. Trade Representative said in a separate statement.
...
Hours later -- early Saturday in China -- the nation’s Finance Ministry issued a list of 545 product categories, also covering about $34 billion in exports from the U.S., to be subject to an additional 25 percent tariff starting July 6. They included a variety of agricultural products, including soybeans, corn and wheat along with beef, pork and poultry, plus automobiles. A second set of tariffs to begin at a later date spanned other goods including coal, crude oil, gasoline and medical equipment.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Rip »

They don't have the ability to match us with the same scale and intensity for long.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Archinerd »

Well that's a relief.
Offending our long time allies and potentially doing irreversible damage to the global economy are all worth it.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Rip »

Archinerd wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:53 pm Well that's a relief.
Offending our long time allies and potentially doing irreversible damage to the global economy are all worth it.
Longtime allies? China?
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Archinerd »

You have a short memory, are you sure you're feeling okay?
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo »

em2nought wrote: Sun Jun 17, 2018 8:01 pm
GreenGoo wrote: Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:20 pm He's halfway there.

Still a long way to go
It's like talking to a turing test failure, from wwii.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo »

Rip wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:45 pm They don't have the ability to match us with the same scale and intensity for long.
Sure, if they were playing by the same rules. The just installed a dictator. Do you think he's motivated by the same objectives that a democracy is?
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Rip »

GreenGoo wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:26 pm
Rip wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:45 pm They don't have the ability to match us with the same scale and intensity for long.
Sure, if they were playing by the same rules. The just installed a dictator. Do you think he's motivated by the same objectives that a democracy is?
China? Again you are in left field. China isn't ruled by a Dictator, the politburo is the center of power. More of a Supreme Council type thing. A nice one party structure that stomps on any dissent against that party with a ruthlessness that would make Kim Jong Un proud. A permanently enthroned Nationalist Party.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/i ... html/1.stm
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by gilraen »

Rip wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:36 pm
GreenGoo wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 4:26 pm
Rip wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:45 pm They don't have the ability to match us with the same scale and intensity for long.
Sure, if they were playing by the same rules. The just installed a dictator. Do you think he's motivated by the same objectives that a democracy is?
China? Again you are in left field. China isn't ruled by a Dictator, the politburo is the center of power. More of a Supreme Council type thing. A nice one party structure that stomps on any dissent against that party with a ruthlessness that would make Kim Jong Un proud. A permanently enthroned Nationalist Party.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/i ... html/1.stm
Funny you should bring that up...let's see what John Oliver has to say about it.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis »

Rip wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:36 pm China? Again you are in left field. China isn't ruled by a Dictator, the politburo is the center of power. More of a Supreme Council type thing. A nice one party structure that stomps on any dissent against that party with a ruthlessness that would make Kim Jong Un proud. A permanently enthroned Nationalist Party.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/i ... html/1.stm
Xi is there to drain the swamp

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/04 ... and-worse/
“All news media run by the Party [which includes every major media outlet in China] must work to speak for the Party’s will and its propositions, and protect the Party’s authority and unity,” Xi warned. In front of a banner declaring “CCTV’s family name is ‘the Party,’” Xi urged people who work in the media to “enhance their awareness to align their ideology, political thinking, and deeds to those of the CCP Central Committee.”
...
“He’s now president for life. President for life. And he’s great. And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll give that a shot some day,”
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Rip »

Like I said all about the "party". Xi is just the face of it. It isn't one man it is a politburo. Dictators place themselves before any "party" like Kim Jong Un. Which is then handed down through the family. Xi's children are not the heirs apparent, whoever the politburo decides is next will be next. If he screws the pooch on carrying out that agenda Xi will be gone. Although I am sure the "for life" part will ring true. Such an early untimely death if needed.

Xi is less a dictator than Erdogan.

BTW, the broken clock is right an awful lot.
Marking the latest salvo in a tit-for-tat dispute over trade, Trump directed U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods that would be hit with a 10% tariff, according to a statement from the White House. Trump said the new tariffs will go into effect “if China refuses to change its practices, and also if it insists on going forward with the new tariffs that it has recently announced.”
The U.S. will prepare tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese products, doubling the total amount, if China chooses to respond by raising its own tariffs again.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/tr ... ew-tariffs

The ability to match us is dead already.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Daehawk »

Trump reminds me of the Palestinians. They carry out attacks and killings then if anyone fights back or hurts just one of their fools in the street then they are all "You have attacked us outright without cause we shall respond with 10x the destruction!"
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Rip »

Daehawk wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:51 pm Trump reminds me of the Palestinians. They carry out attacks and killings then if anyone fights back or hurts just one of their fools in the street then they are all "You have attacked us outright without cause we shall respond with 10x the destruction!"
The big difference of course is in the ability to actually do it.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo »

Because dictator was the relevant part of my comment that we should totally spend many posts debating.

Disingenuous.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Fitzy »

Rip wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:17 pm
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/tr ... ew-tariffs

The ability to match us is dead already.
I think the point people such as GreenGoo are trying to make, though I could be wrong, is that the American people will revolt over losing $0.99 toilet paper long before the people of China will revolt over hunger. And if they should revolt, the government of China is capable of brutally surpressing that revolt where we are not.

I agree with that viewpoint. But I am curious why you believe China will back down first over absolute numbers.

PS

$0.99 toilet paper is a metaphor and not meant literally, but meant as a funny standin for cheap goods.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo »

Exactly. My point is that China is not America, and the Chinese are not Americans and even if they were, Xi and Co. are not the 3 branches of government guided by the constitution.

I am not an authority on China, but I can guess that brutal repression is in the future of any Chinese citizens that complain about any loss of quality of living. I don't think they have any 2nd amendment fans that can solve that problem.

But none of that matters and we should spend several posts discussing why Fitzy would intentionally mislead us with his $0.99 toilet paper fallacy.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Rip »

Fitzy wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:27 pm
Rip wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:17 pm
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/tr ... ew-tariffs

The ability to match us is dead already.
I think the point people such as GreenGoo are trying to make, though I could be wrong, is that the American people will revolt over losing $0.99 toilet paper long before the people of China will revolt over hunger. And if they should revolt, the government of China is capable of brutally surpressing that revolt where we are not.

I agree with that viewpoint. But I am curious why you believe China will back down first over absolute numbers.

PS

$0.99 toilet paper is a metaphor and not meant literally, but meant as a funny standin for cheap goods.
Because it is in their interest to. The Chinese react to leverage. It is inherent to everything they do. That is why they like to negotiate one on one with countries. So they can exert leverage.

They respond to a strong position, not weak handed compromise. I'm all for free trade. What he have had is NOT free trade.

We can do better.

http://fortune.com/2015/08/13/pacific-r ... ree-trade/
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Daehawk »

Is that Trump!?

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo »

Good lord, now Rip's lecturing us on the psyche and geopolitical outlook of the Chinese.

Did you learn that at your last scientology meeting?

At least my points were suggested as possibilities, but no, you go ahead and tell us what they're thinking. You got this.

I'd like to point out that EVERY country that deals with Drumpf would like drumpf to stop what he's doing and get back to the table so that everyone can make some money.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Fitzy »

Rip wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:56 pm
Fitzy wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:27 pm
Rip wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:17 pm
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/tr ... ew-tariffs

The ability to match us is dead already.
I think the point people such as GreenGoo are trying to make, though I could be wrong, is that the American people will revolt over losing $0.99 toilet paper long before the people of China will revolt over hunger. And if they should revolt, the government of China is capable of brutally surpressing that revolt where we are not.

I agree with that viewpoint. But I am curious why you believe China will back down first over absolute numbers.

PS

$0.99 toilet paper is a metaphor and not meant literally, but meant as a funny standin for cheap goods.
Because it is in their interest to. The Chinese react to leverage. It is inherent to everything they do. That is why they like to negotiate one on one with countries. So they can exert leverage.

They respond to a strong position, not weak handed compromise. I'm all for free trade. What he have had is NOT free trade.

We can do better.

http://fortune.com/2015/08/13/pacific-r ... ree-trade/
Hypothetically assuming you are correct about the leverage, wouldn’t that be based on the effect of the tariffs on each countries population? So wouldn’t the Chinese have more leverage because increased prices will cause more dissatisfaction here than in China? Each job loss here will be reported heavily and felt heavily, whereas in China I would think they will be ignored or the people can be forceably reassigned. Or are you suggesting that China is more open to public pressure than reported?

Add to that, that Trump isn’t just fighting with China, he tossed in most of the rest of the wealthy countries, so we have the effects of multiple tariffs, across multiple sectors, hitting multiple people.

I’m just not seeing where this leverage is coming from.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur »

Rip wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:56 pm Because it is in their interest to. The Chinese react to leverage. It is inherent to everything they do. That is why they like to negotiate one on one with countries. So they can exert leverage.
Psychlos. You're thinking of Psychlos.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by noxiousdog »

Fitzy wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:27 pm
Rip wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:17 pm
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/tr ... ew-tariffs

The ability to match us is dead already.
I think the point people such as GreenGoo are trying to make, though I could be wrong, is that the American people will revolt over losing $0.99 toilet paper long before the people of China will revolt over hunger. And if they should revolt, the government of China is capable of brutally surpressing that revolt where we are not.

I agree with that viewpoint. But I am curious why you believe China will back down first over absolute numbers.

PS

$0.99 toilet paper is a metaphor and not meant literally, but meant as a funny standin for cheap goods.
The DOW has fallen 700 points in two days and it's being blamed (rightly or wrongly) on tariff worries. I don't think we're going to have to worry about the toilet paper metaphor for pushback.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Rip »

Fitzy wrote: Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:12 am
Rip wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:56 pm
Fitzy wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:27 pm
Rip wrote: Mon Jun 18, 2018 9:17 pm
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/tr ... ew-tariffs

The ability to match us is dead already.
I think the point people such as GreenGoo are trying to make, though I could be wrong, is that the American people will revolt over losing $0.99 toilet paper long before the people of China will revolt over hunger. And if they should revolt, the government of China is capable of brutally surpressing that revolt where we are not.

I agree with that viewpoint. But I am curious why you believe China will back down first over absolute numbers.

PS

$0.99 toilet paper is a metaphor and not meant literally, but meant as a funny standin for cheap goods.
Because it is in their interest to. The Chinese react to leverage. It is inherent to everything they do. That is why they like to negotiate one on one with countries. So they can exert leverage.

They respond to a strong position, not weak handed compromise. I'm all for free trade. What he have had is NOT free trade.

We can do better.

http://fortune.com/2015/08/13/pacific-r ... ree-trade/
Hypothetically assuming you are correct about the leverage, wouldn’t that be based on the effect of the tariffs on each countries population? So wouldn’t the Chinese have more leverage because increased prices will cause more dissatisfaction here than in China? Each job loss here will be reported heavily and felt heavily, whereas in China I would think they will be ignored or the people can be forceably reassigned. Or are you suggesting that China is more open to public pressure than reported?

Add to that, that Trump isn’t just fighting with China, he tossed in most of the rest of the wealthy countries, so we have the effects of multiple tariffs, across multiple sectors, hitting multiple people.

I’m just not seeing where this leverage is coming from.
No, in the end they don't give a shit about the people.

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They care about expanding and increasing their military might. Period. The Chinese believe they will replace the US as the global superpower.

Robert Gates wrote about a Q&A at the Asia Security Summit in his book:
In the question and answer session, a retired PLA general aggressively pursued the Taiwan arms-sales issue. I replied the Chinese had known full well at the time we normalized diplomatic relations in 1979 that arms-sales to Taiwan would continue. Why, then, I asked
, did China still pursue this line? The general's response was as direct as it was revealing. China had lived with the Taiwan arms sales in 1979, he said, "because we were weak. But now we are strong."
Add to that the fact that the animosity between the Japanese and the Chinese not to mention many others the situation could easily become middle east like in the pacific were China to become powerful enough.

It makes no sense for us to accept any agreement that is skewed in China's favor.

Even more so for Europe. They don't even carry their military weight, no way in hell we should be giving them agreements skewed in their favor. If we are going to bear the brunt of providing military security for the free world we should not accept agreements that are any worse then equally balanced, and for those that crosslines, like Russia, Iran, NK, Syria, etc. We should only agree to trade that favors us if any at all.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior »

The new menace - Canadians smuggling shoes.

Last edited by malchior on Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur »

Well, the number of shoes just washing up on shore aren't' sufficient to keep them supplied.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken »

Fitzy wrote: Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:12 am
Hypothetically assuming you are correct about the leverage, wouldn’t that be based on the effect of the tariffs on each countries population? So wouldn’t the Chinese have more leverage because increased prices will cause more dissatisfaction here than in China? Each job loss here will be reported heavily and felt heavily, whereas in China I would think they will be ignored or the people can be forceably reassigned. Or are you suggesting that China is more open to public pressure than reported?

Add to that, that Trump isn’t just fighting with China, he tossed in most of the rest of the wealthy countries, so we have the effects of multiple tariffs, across multiple sectors, hitting multiple people.

I’m just not seeing where this leverage is coming from.
Devil's advocate: China has a smaller economy than the US and exports more to the US than the US exports to China. Therefore the tariffs affect a bigger share of China's economy than ours, leaving aside the effect on consumer prices.

Trade is multilateral, and China is not starting fights all over the world. In the medium to long term, they can find other customers for their goods, especially if the US continues to alienate its most important trading partners. In the short term, though losing US exports will hurt China more, and Xi can't tolerate much of that in light of an already-slowing economy. So: short-term advantage goes to the US, insofar as anybody benefits from trade wars.
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