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Trump Trade War

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Isgrimnur
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:41 am

LordMortis wrote:
Tue May 21, 2019 4:49 pm
You can take solace in Octopi imports are also being threatened.

https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2019/0 ... n-octopus/
Salmon from the UK and Germany and octopus and tuna from Spain appear to be the seafood products most in danger of taking big hits if the US goes ahead with its threat of tariffs on imports from Europe as retaliation for the subsidies provided Airbus.

The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) on Tuesday published a list of nearly 300 items imported from Europe, reported to be worth more than $11 billion in total, that could get more expensive soon should a settlement not be reached in the long-running trade dispute over the Netherlands-based airplane manufacturer, which has its main office in France. The action follows a ruling last month by the World Trade Organization (WTO) that the EU’s subsidies to Airbus have caused adverse effects to the US.
WaPo
The World Trade Organization on Wednesday authorized President Trump to impose tariffs on about $7.5 billion worth of European goods, ending a 15-year trans-Atlantic dispute over illegal subsidies to aircraft maker Airbus and opening the door to a major escalation in a broader trade war with the European Union.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer has promised to implement the tariffs on European aircraft and helicopters, as well as consumer goods such as wine and Gouda cheese “immediately” following the WTO ruling. The European Union has vowed to retaliate with its own levies on American products.

Lighthizer has said that the United States will keep the tariffs in place until European officials agree to end subsidies for Airbus. With Trump considering the imposition of separate 25 percent tariffs on European automobiles, trade relations between the United States and its closest allies are set to sour even as the U.S.-China trade war drags on.
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The ruling came one day after the WTO slashed its forecast of global trade growth to just 1.2 percent this year, down from 2.6 percent in April. Next year, merchandise trade volumes are projected to increase by 2.7 percent compared with an initial 3 percent estimate, and WTO economists cautioned “that downside risks remain high and that the 2020 projection depends on a return to more normal trade relations.”

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:35 am

But it's the Fed keeping interest rates too high that is holding back the economy. Because 2% is killing us. (Some might not see the sarcasm there, so I'll note that was cynical post)

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Sat Oct 05, 2019 4:19 pm

My packy's wine tasting today had a "beat the tariffs" theme on French and Italian wines. Today's varieties topped out at $10/bottle, but we won't see prices like that again after the 25% trump tax kicks in.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Oct 10, 2019 4:02 pm

CNBC
Stocks rose on Thursday after President Donald Trump said he will meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Friday, raising hope the two countries could make progress on the trade front.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 101 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 gained 0.5% while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.4%. At its session high, the Dow was up 257.30 points., or 0.98%.

In a tweet, Trump said: “Big day of negotiations with China. They want to make a deal, but do I? I meet with the Vice Premier tomorrow at The White House.”
Everything is a fucking game.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Oct 15, 2019 11:34 am

Newsweek
Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo criticized President Donald Trump's administration for "overselling" a new trade agreement with China, arguing that "the Chinese got what they want" while the U.S. got very little in return.

"Let's not forget, the Treasury [Department] has been overselling details of this deal now for years," Bartiromo pointed out Monday during Mornings With Maria. She pointed out that Trump's treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, "came out a year ago and said, 'Oh we're 90 percent there, we're 90 percent there,' only to find out that they were not close at all."
..
Classifying the deal as "tremendous" for farmers, Trump said the agreement would address intellectual property and financial services concerns, while China would also purchase some $40 billion to $50 billion worth of agricultural products from the U.S. In return, the Trump administration agreed to hold off on a new round of hefty tariffs targeting Chinese imports, which had been set to go into effect on Tuesday.

While the Trump administration has touted the deal as a win for the U.S., Bartiromo and other analysts are skeptical. Meanwhile, China has reportedly called for a new round of trade talks before it signs any agreement, according to CNBC, which suggest that the deal is not as solid as the White House has claimed.
...
Investors have already signaled they are less than impressed with the so-called phase one" agreement.

"There is not yet a viable path to existing tariffs declining, and tariff escalation remains a meaningful risk," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note to clients, Axios reported. "Thus, we do not yet expect a meaningful rebound in corporate behavior that would drive global growth expectations higher."

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Daehawk » Tue Oct 15, 2019 11:57 am

The art of the spin.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Azza » Fri Oct 18, 2019 12:24 am



:doh:
I have no sig!

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:43 pm

CNBC
The U.S. Treasury on Friday said that the federal deficit for fiscal 2019 was $984 billion, a 26% increase from 2018 but still short of the $1 trillion mark previously forecast by the administration.

The gap between revenues and spending was the widest it’s been in seven years as expenditures on defense, Medicare and interest payments on the national debt ballooned the shortfall.

The government said corporate tax revenues totaled $230 billion, up 12%, thanks to a rebound in the second half of the year. Individual tax revenues rose 2% to $1.7 trillion.

Receipts totaled $3.4 trillion, up 4% through September, while federal spending rose 8%, to $4.4 trillion.

The U.S. government also collected nearly $71 billion in customs duties, or tariffs, a 70% increase compared to the year-ago period. As a percentage of U.S. economic output the deficit was 4.6%, 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous year.
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Annual deficits have nearly doubled under President Donald Trump’s tenure notwithstanding an unemployment rate at multidecade lows and better earnings figures. Deficits usually shrink during times of economic growth as higher incomes and Wall Street profits buoy Treasury coffers, while automatic spending on items like food stamps decline.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Oct 30, 2019 1:17 pm

CNBC
Chile said it’s calling off the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Santiago in mid-November.

President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping were scheduled to meet at the gathering to discuss a possible “phase one” deal that the two countries are close to finalizing.

The cancellation was due to protests, according to Chilean President Sebastian Pinera.
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Chile’s government had extended a state of emergency to several cities across the country last week as a proposed hike in public transport fares sparked nationwide protests.
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The U.S. said Monday that it is considering extending certain tariff exclusions on $34 billion of imports from China as the two nations work toward a trade agreement. Exemptions on nearly 1,000 products are set to expire in December.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:48 pm

CNBC
China’s Commerce Ministry said Thursday that Beijing had agreed with Washington to lift existing trade tariffs between the two nations in phases.

Gao Feng, a spokesperson for China’s Commerce Ministry, said that both sides had agreed to simultaneously cancel some existing tariffs on one another’s goods, according to the country’s state broadcaster.

The ministry spokesperson said that both sides were closer to a so-called phase one trade agreement after constructive negotiations over the past two weeks.

One important condition for a limited trade agreement, Feng insisted, was that the U.S. and China must remove the same amount of charges at the same time.
...
However, Reuters reported on Wednesday that a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could be postponed until December — delaying a chance for the two leaders to sign an interim trade deal.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:59 pm

CNN
President Donald Trump announced Monday that the US will "restore" steel and aluminum tariffs on Brazil and Argentina, citing a "massive devaluation of their currencies."

"Brazil and Argentina have been presiding over a massive devaluation of their currencies. which is not good for our farmers. Therefore, effective immediately, I will restore the Tariffs on all Steel & Aluminum that is shipped into the U.S. from those countries," Trump tweeted early Monday morning from Washington. He also called on the Federal Reserve to "act so that countries, of which there are many, no longer take advantage of our strong dollar by further devaluing their currencies."

Formal notices of the tariffs were not immediately announced by the Treasury or Commerce Departments or the Office of the US Trade Representative. Both Brazil and Argentina were exempted from 25% steel and 10% aluminum tariffs last year when Trump was attempting to avoid a trade war with those countries.

The President's decision amounts to retaliation against two countries that have served as alternative suppliers of soybeans and other farm products to China, grabbing market share away from American farmers, a key constituency the President will need to win reelection in 2020.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Octavious » Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:12 pm

And tanked the market doing so. Dow Futures was showing a big jump up until captain orange opened his mouth. :lol:
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Dec 02, 2019 11:58 pm

CNBC
The U.S. government on Monday said it may slap punitive duties of up to 100% on $2.4 billion in imports from France of Champagne, handbags, cheese and other products, after concluding that France’s new digital services tax would harm U.S. tech companies.

The U.S. Trade Representative’s office said its “Section 301” investigation found that the French tax was “inconsistent with prevailing principles of international tax policy, and is unusually burdensome for affected U.S. companies,” including Alphabet’s Google, Facebook, Apple and Amazon.com.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the government was exploring whether to open similar investigations into the digital services taxes of Austria, Italy and Turkey.
...
The U.S. trade agency said it would collect public comments through Jan. 14 on its proposed tariff list as well as the option of imposing fees or restrictions on French services, with a public hearing scheduled for Jan. 7.

It did not specify an effective date for the proposed 100% duties.
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“The French digital services tax is unreasonable, protectionist and discriminatory,” Senators Charles Grassley and Ron Wyden, the top Republican and Democrat, respectively, on the Senate Finance Committee, said in a joint statement.
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France’s 3% levy applies to revenue from digital services earned by firms with more than 25 million euros ($27.86 million) in French revenue and 750 million euros ($830 million) worldwide.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:40 pm

CBC
Global commerce lost its ultimate umpire Tuesday, leaving countries unable to reach a final resolution of disputes at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and instead facing what critics call "the law of the jungle."
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The terms of two of the last three judges on the WTO's appellate body ended Tuesday. Their departure will deprive the de facto supreme court of world trade of its ability to issue rulings.

Among the disputes left in limbo are seven cases that were brought against Trump's decision last year to declare foreign steel and aluminum a threat to U.S. national security and hit them with import taxes.

The WTO's lower court — its dispute settlement body — can hear cases. But its decisions will go nowhere if the loser appeals to a higher court that is no longer functioning.
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The panel is supposed to have seven judges. But their ranks have dwindled because the United States — under Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Trump — has blocked new appointments to protest the way the WTO does business.

Trump and his top trade negotiator, Robert Lighthizer, are especially vociferous critics of the WTO. They argue the trade organization constrains America's ability to counter unfair trading practices by China and other countries.

Even other countries have complained about the WTO's system for settling trade disputes. Critics say cases take too long to resolve, the panel often overreaches in its rulings and the Geneva-based agency is ill equipped to deal with the challenge posed by the Chinese economy's unconventional blend of capitalism and state control.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:11 pm

CNBC
China and the U.S. announced Friday they have reached a phase one trade deal including some tariff relief, increased agricultural purchases and structural change to intellectual property and technology issues.
...
Major U.S. stock indexes initially jumped following news of the deal but later gave up those gains.

The U.S. plans to scrap tariffs on Chinese goods in phases, a priority for Beijing, Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen said. However, Wang did not detail when exactly the U.S. would roll back duties.

Trump later said his administration would cancel its next round of tariffs on Chinese goods set to take effect Sunday. In tweets, he added that the White House would leave 25% tariffs on $250 billion in imports in place while cutting existing duties on another $120 billion in products to 7.5%.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Dec 30, 2019 1:43 pm

Salon
President Donald Trump’s trade war raised prices for consumers and hurt the manufacturing industry, according to a report from economists on the Federal Reserve Board.

"The first comprehensive estimates" of the trade war’s effect on American manufacturers show that the tariffs have hurt the industry more than they helped, wrote Aaron Flaaen and Justin Pierce, two senior economists at the Federal Reserve's Industrial Output Section.
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In short, the economists concluded that the tariffs gave a “small boost” to manufacturers, which was “offset by larger drags from the effects” of rising costs and retaliatory tariffs.

Mother Jones summarized the main findings in a handy chart:


...
As a result, manufacturing employment fell, and consumer prices increased. The economists acknowledged that their analysis only examined short-term trends, while long-term trends could show different effects. Trump has argued that the tariffs provide leverage for ongoing trade negotiations, but extensive data thus far shows that his trade war has devastated manufacturers, farmers and other industries.

The economists cited extensive existing research showing that “the majority of U.S. tariff increases are absorbed by U.S. retailers” and are almost entirely passed on to consumers in price increases. Some studies have found that American companies which engaged in trade with China saw “lower stock returns and higher default risk.” The report also acknowledged the political implications of the trade war, citing a study which concluded that it could "explain a shift in voting away from Republican House candidates in the 2018 election.”

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior » Sat Jan 18, 2020 8:48 am

Interesting piece about the big picture on the China trade deal. Outside the usual Trump boosters it has gotten a lukewarm reception and this feels fairly accurate. The trade deal sounds a lot more like a reset than a breakthrough but we will see.

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