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Trump Trade War

For discussion of religion and politics

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Skinypupy » Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:16 pm

Zarathud wrote:
Sat Sep 29, 2018 3:42 pm
When trucks stop arriving at WalMart, then Trump's supporters will turn on him. But Trump is too stupid to realize that.
No they won't. They'll blame it on Obama, somehow.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:35 am

Word on the street is that there is a tentative agreement in place between Canada and the US.

Haven't had a chance to read the details (if there are any) yet.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Max Peck » Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:11 am

The trade-off is that Canada will allow greater access to the dairy market and the current dispute mechanism will remain intact. Instead of being called NAFTA, it is now called USMCA (United States, Mexico and Canada Agreement) -- two letters for the US and only one each for Mexico and Canada. MAGA!

Apparently the dairy concessions are basically the same as were previously agreed to for the TPP.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Blackhawk » Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:19 am

I will never see that without thinking that I'm reading about the marines.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:37 am

As I understand it, the Canadian tariffs shield small dairy farms from factory farms. So is this a loss to Canadian family farms and a gain for US agribusiness? It would suck if that's who got thrown under the bus.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Max Peck » Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:27 am

Kraken wrote:
Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:37 am
As I understand it, the Canadian tariffs shield small dairy farms from factory farms. So is this a loss to Canadian family farms and a gain for US agribusiness? It would suck if that's who got thrown under the bus.
My understanding is that the tariffs are there to protect the supply management system. I'm not sure that protecting small dairy farms, assuming that they exist these days, factors into it very much.
Time and tide melt the snowman.

There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:01 am

Max Peck wrote:
Mon Oct 01, 2018 7:27 am
My understanding is that the tariffs are there to protect the supply management system. I'm not sure that protecting small dairy farms, assuming that they exist these days, factors into it very much.
Ditto as to my understanding of it.

Many US dairy farmers are on the record as wishing they had a similar system, because they are bankrupting themselves through over-production and competition. I have no personal feelings re: Dairy market, except to say that many people, both liberal and conservative (they find other parts of it to argue about) suggest that Canada's dairy market would be destroyed without it, and opening it fully to American dairy farmers would do that.

That might be a simplistic way to look at it. I'm no expert.

American dairy farmers already have a trade surplus in the Canadian market, just not in *all* dairy products, so the suggestion that Canada is protectionist re: dairy market isn't even completely true.

Not sure what has changed with the new agreement, or whether or not it's esoteric enough for a layperson to understand, or care. I should probably find out.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Holman » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:00 am

Max Peck wrote:
Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:11 am
Instead of being called NAFTA, it is now called USMCA (United States, Mexico and Canada Agreement) -- two letters for the US and only one each for Mexico and Canada. MAGA!
All big acronyms acquire pronunciations as names, but this one is missing a necessary vowel in the middle.

Since the M is for Mexico, the natural choice is... "U.S. Mecca"?
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Chaz » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:05 am

I bet a dollar everyone's going to continue calling it NAFTA. Everyone already seems to be.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Carpet_pissr » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:10 am

Missed opportunity, but I guess there's still time: USAMECA (OOSA - MECCA)
CANUSAMEXTA (TA = trade agreement)
MEXICANUSA

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LawBeefaroni » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:13 am

Holman wrote:
Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:00 am
Max Peck wrote:
Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:11 am
Instead of being called NAFTA, it is now called USMCA (United States, Mexico and Canada Agreement) -- two letters for the US and only one each for Mexico and Canada. MAGA!
All big acronyms acquire pronunciations as names, but this one is missing a necessary vowel in the middle.

Since the M is for Mexico, the natural choice is... "U.S. Mecca"?
Maybe a theme song. "It's fun to trade in the Us-M-C-A..."
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by stessier » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:25 am

Carpet_pissr wrote:
Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:10 am
Trump's MEXICANUSA
FTFY - and we have to make this a thing.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Smoove_B » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:26 am

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:13 am
Maybe a theme song. "It's fun to trade in the Us-M-C-A..."
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Carpet_pissr » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:29 am

stessier wrote:
Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:25 am
Carpet_pissr wrote:
Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:10 am
Trump's MEXICANUSA
FTFY - and we have to make this a thing.
And lo, the sound of shrieking by millions of deplorables did fillith the air, whilst fear and rage burned in their very souls.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:34 am

Details are sketchy, but it looks like the US now has access to a little over 3.25% of the Canadian milk market.

As mentioned above, this is slightly higher than what was given to 10 countries in the TPP.

I'm sure that will keep American dairy farmers from starving. It's better than nothing for them, I guess, but remember that Canada only has 36 million people, so assuming the American and Canadian markets are similar, the American dairy farmer just increased their market ~4% of ~10% of it's current market. What's that, an overall market increase of 0.4%?

Hardly seems worth 14 months of negotiation.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Paingod » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:35 am

stessier wrote:
Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:25 am
Carpet_pissr wrote:
Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:10 am
Trump's MEXICANUSA
FTFY - and we have to make this a thing.
I'd go with USAMEXICAN but insist it be voiced like JarJar Binks. O0o-SAH-MEX-ee-KAN?
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:43 am

Oh, I'm pretty sure that's only for milk. They already had significant access (and a trade surplus) in other dairy products.

In my pursuit of details, I stumbled across the fact that milk consumption is ~1/6 what it was in the 60's. American dairy farmers have been in a shrinking market for like 70 years. I assume the same for Canadians.

Milk production seems like a horrible business to be in.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:47 am

Yahoo News
The Dairy Farmers of Canada denounced the US-Mexico-Canada agreement, warning that the concessions, which give US farmers an additional 3.59 percent slice of the Canadian dairy market, "will have a dramatic impact not only for dairy farmers but for the whole sector."

"This has happened, despite assurances that our government would not sign a bad deal for Canadians," it said. "We fail to see how this deal can be good for the 220,000 Canadian families that depend on dairy for their livelihood."
...
Milk-and-cheese-producing Quebec holds provincial elections on Monday that are seen as an early barometer of national support for the ruling Liberals.
...
Jerry Dias, head of Canada's largest union representing auto workers, said he was "absolutely thrilled" that a deal was reached keeping the door open for the nation's top export.

"The number one export industry in the country is the auto industry," he said, adding that Trump's threat to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canadian automobiles and parts was also off the table.

He also praised keeping dispute resolution panels, an exemption for Canadian cultural industries which "prevent the United States from taking control of the media sector in Canada."

A two-year extension on some drug patents to 10 years will cost Canadians more, but Dias said Ottawa is planning to introduce a nationwide pharmacare plan next year that would mitigate any direct cost increases to Canadians.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Carpet_pissr » Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:17 pm

GreenGoo wrote:
Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:43 am
Oh, I'm pretty sure that's only for milk. They already had significant access (and a trade surplus) in other dairy products.

In my pursuit of details, I stumbled across the fact that milk consumption is ~1/6 what it was in the 60's. American dairy farmers have been in a shrinking market for like 70 years. I assume the same for Canadians.

Milk production seems like a horrible business to be in.
Yep. They are getting destroyed by the almond/cashew/coconut replacements. Especially now with the science showing that cow milk is not as healthy for human consumption like it was assumed in the 50's and 60's, and in fact has a lot of side effects.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:44 pm

Obviously it's a net drop for Canadian dairy farmers. Exactly zero canadian dairy farmers are going to be happy with the deal.

Equally obviously to anyone who's not a dairy farmer is that the agreement is not called the can-us dairy trade treaty and there are more factors than just fairy involved.

It's easy for me to take a whole picture view because I'm not a dairy farmer. It sucks for them and I wouldn't expect them to be happy about it.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LawBeefaroni » Fri Nov 02, 2018 1:09 pm

As posted elsewhere:



U.S. Goods Imports and Trade Deficit With China Hit New Records

The U.S. imported a record amount of goods in September, while the trade deficit with China rose to its highest level ever, despite intense efforts by the Trump administration to close the trade gap.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior » Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:07 pm

Ford preparing layoffs in face of hit to business due to tariffs.

Ford has other problems but they are quantifying the loss at $1B due to the tariffs. That is pretty significant even if they face other headwinds.

Oh and before I forget...an obligatory - WINNING!

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:16 pm

It's ok, the economy is rockin' (It really is, presumably because there is no god), and that's all that matters. They can get jobs in the coal farms...that the government is being sued over as per the climate change thread.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Remus West » Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:04 pm

GreenGoo wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 12:16 pm
It's ok, the economy is rockin' (It really is, presumably because there is no god), and that's all that matters. They can get jobs in the coal farms...that the government is being sued over as per the climate change thread.
The economy is rocking due to Obama era policies and resilience. Trump's policies really haven't made their mark as yet. Sadly they won't really show until close to the end of his term if not right after. Reagan looked great until the recession his policies created took effect. Don't tax (the rich) and spend like crazy is not sound fiscal policy.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:10 pm

No shit.

Feel free to explain that to the voters.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Daveman » Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:31 pm

Democrats are already screwed if they take the House. Who else is going to get the blame come tax time in a few months when people realize they're getting less back? Never mind it was the Republicans who did it.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:55 pm

Daveman wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:31 pm
Democrats are already screwed if they take the House. Who else is going to get the blame come tax time in a few months when people realize they're getting less back? Never mind it was the Republicans who did it.
Partly true. Republicans aren't emphasizing the economy in part because their tax bill is still unpopular. That's one D message that seems to have gotten through...and most of us didn't notice our paychecks getting any fatter. The R's aren't going to evade blame in April, except among those who are already hopelessly R.

A more realistic fear is that the expected D House majority will be blamed when the economy inevitably slows in the second half of next year.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:18 pm

Kraken wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:55 pm
Daveman wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:31 pm
Democrats are already screwed if they take the House. Who else is going to get the blame come tax time in a few months when people realize they're getting less back? Never mind it was the Republicans who did it.
Partly true. Republicans aren't emphasizing the economy in part because their tax bill is still unpopular. That's one D message that seems to have gotten through...and most of us didn't notice our paychecks getting any fatter. The R's aren't going to evade blame in April, except among those who are already hopelessly R.

A more realistic fear is that the expected D House majority will be blamed when the economy inevitably slows in the second half of next year.
I noticed a small fattening of my check. I am dubious of what it means until April. I am also dubious if it will last and I finally I am dubious that my trivial tax cut will be counteracted by trillions of dollars in debt expansion that will need to be accounted for later... No wait, that's not my final dubious, I'm dubious that federal programs much needed by out country at large are going to become ineffective with non sensical cuts.

I'm sure the short term portfolio costs are already being blamed on the Ds. I mean "the market could be much higher but I had to do things" I think that's the quote...

While looking, I couldn't find but this....
Oct 30, 2018 07:33:39 AM The Stock Market is up massively since the Election, but is now taking a little pause - people want to see what happens with the Midterms. If you want your Stocks to go down, I strongly suggest voting Democrat. They like the Venezuela financial model, High Taxes & Open Borders!

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:02 pm

Surprise.

Canada claims usmca texts put forth by USA "not at all what we agreed to".

Fun.

I'm shocked that the current administration would do something dishonest because the American people hold their leaders accountable for their actions.

On phone. Someone else can link, or I will later.

You can probably find it below " white house releases doctored video as evidence to support their actions" article.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:21 pm


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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Max Peck » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:41 pm

Meh, this is just a bump in the road. We all know how this story ultimately ends.

Enlarge Image
Time and tide melt the snowman.

There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
-- The Doctor

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:09 pm

malchior wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:21 pm
Here's a link about the above - We just differ on interpretations of requirements - yeah that's the ticket!
Honestly it could be exactly that.

...but probably not.

Thanks for the link btw. I think the article I read was Huffpost one.
Last edited by GreenGoo on Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:09 pm

Max Peck wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:41 pm
Meh, this is just a bump in the road. We all know how this story ultimately ends.

Enlarge Image
Don't shoot me, shoot Max! He was in the military!

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Max Peck » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:15 pm

GreenGoo wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:09 pm
Max Peck wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:41 pm
Meh, this is just a bump in the road. We all know how this story ultimately ends.

Enlarge Image
Don't shoot me, shoot Max! He was in the military!
The NSA has complete transcripts of your posting history. You've been on the list since the beginning.
Time and tide melt the snowman.

There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:22 pm

Max Peck wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:15 pm
The NSA has complete transcripts of your posting history. You've been on the list since the beginning.
VPN suckahs!

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Sepiche » Tue Nov 20, 2018 1:35 pm

So, how are soybean exports you ask?

Image

Month to month exports are steady, but the massive fall selloff is no more which is a gut punch to farmers used to easy exports to China.

But didn't Drumpf throw money at the farmers? How's that going?
A $12 Billion Program to Help Farmers Stung by Trump’s Trade War Has Aided Few
America’s farmers have been shut out of foreign markets, hit with retaliatory tariffs and lost lucrative contracts in the face of President Trump’s trade war. But a $12 billion bailout program Mr. Trump created to “make it up” to farmers has done little to cushion the blow, with red tape and long waiting periods resulting in few payouts so far.

According to the Department of Agriculture, just $838 million has been paid out to farmers since the first $6 billion pot of money was made available in September. Another pool of up to $6 billion is expected to become available next month. The government is unlikely to offer additional money beyond the $12 billion, according to Sonny Perdue, the agriculture secretary.

The program’s limitations are beginning to test farmers’ patience. The trade war shows no signs of easing, with China and the United States locked in a stalemate that has reduced American farmers’ access to a critical market for soybeans, farm equipment and other products. Europe is planning more retaliatory tariffs on top of those already imposed on American peanut butter and orange juice, and Canada and Mexico continue to levy taxes on American goods, including on pork and cheese.
A mismanaged sham? Didn't see that coming. :roll:

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Max Peck
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Max Peck » Tue Nov 20, 2018 1:56 pm

Who'da thunk that Mother Jones would be soft-pedaling the impact on soybean exports.
President Trump’s trade war with China is having a major impact on agricultural industries, most notably on U.S. soybean exports.

According to Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, U.S. soybean exports to China are down 98 percent in 2018.

There was about $1.2 billion in soybean exports to China in January 2018 before the nosedive. Soybeans were the top U.S. agricultural export to China last year.

Enlarge Image
Still, Trump seems to be correct about trade wars being easy to win. Who knew that he was talking about Brazil (or even Russia, to a small degree).
Time and tide melt the snowman.

There are worlds out there where the sky is burning, where the sea's asleep and the rivers dream, people made of smoke and cities made of song. Somewhere there's danger, somewhere there's injustice and somewhere else the tea is getting cold. Come on, Ace, we've got work to do.
-- The Doctor

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Grifman » Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:20 pm

This is just like the people that voted for Trump and then were shocked that he and the Republicans were going to take away their Obamacare. I heard a story several months ago about how his support was still strong in farm country, with many farmers saying that we needed to give the president time for his trade policies to work. But as the months drag on, I suspect at least some of them are having doubts about their vote.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:25 pm

Grifman wrote:
Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:20 pm
This is just like the people that voted for Trump and then were shocked that he and the Republicans were going to take away their Obamacare. I heard a story several months ago about how his support was still strong in farm country, with many farmers saying that we needed to give the president time for his trade policies to work. But as the months drag on, I suspect at least some of them are having doubts about their vote.
Reading interviews from people in different industries, there are definitely people who understand how screwed they are getting, and there are friends of those people who think things are going great and it's only a matter of time before mana starts raining down on everyone. In the interviews, the former say they don't talk politics with the latter any more.

It's kind of a miracle that your economy finally recovered just in time for Drumpf to submarine it and still keep chugging along, so far. How long can it last? How will people blame it on Obama this time?

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Tue Nov 20, 2018 11:52 pm

They will blame the D House.

Republicans have a long record of persuading people to vote against their own interests, mostly by demonizing the Others. It's impressive how reliably that works.

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