Octopus Overlords

The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years. It offered a false signal just once in that time.

Pyperkub wrote: ↑Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:38 pm

pr0ner wrote: ↑Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:22 am I'm sure Canada arresting Huawei's CFO for extradition to the US won't help US/Chinese relations any.

BBC seems to think it's based on the Iran/North Korea sanctions and not the Trade War, though it certainly could be both.

On Friday, the Supreme Court of British Columbia was told that Ms Meng had used a Huawei subsidiary called Skycom to evade sanctions on Iran between 2009 and 2014.

The court was told that she had publicly misrepresented Skycom as being a separate company.

Ms Meng faces up to 30 years in prison in the US if found guilty of the charges, the court heard.

Court reporters said she was not handcuffed for the hearing and was wearing a green sweatsuit.

A Canadian government lawyer said Ms Meng was accused of "conspiracy to defraud multiple financial institutions".

He said she had denied to US bankers any direct connections between Huawei and SkyCom, when in fact "SkyCom is Huawei".

The lawyer said Ms Meng could be a flight risk and thus should be denied bail.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he would intervene with the U.S. Justice Department in the case against a Chinese telecommunications executive if it would help secure a trade deal with Beijing.

“If I think it’s good for the country, if I think it’s good for what will be certainly the largest trade deal ever made – which is a very important thing – what’s good for national security – I would certainly intervene if I thought it was necessary,” Trump said in a wide-ranging interview with Reuters in the Oval Office.

Trump expressed optimism that he could strike a trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping as the two countries struggle to resolve a dispute that has contributed to recent U.S. stock market declines and raised questions about whether economic turmoil could beset the president in the new year.

At the request of U.S. authorities, Huawei Technologies Co. executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested earlier this month in Vancouver on charges of violating U.S. sanctions against Iran.

The chief financial officer of Chinese telecoms giant Huawei has been granted bail by a Canadian court.

Meng Wanzhou was arrested on 1 December and could be extradited to the US to face fraud charges linked to the alleged violation of sanctions on Iran.

A judge in Vancouver set bail at C$10m (£6m; $7.4m). She will be under surveillance 24 hours a day and must wear an electronic ankle tag.

Max Peck wrote: ↑Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:02 pm
In other news, she was granted bail.

The chief financial officer of Chinese telecoms giant Huawei has been granted bail by a Canadian court.

Meng Wanzhou was arrested on 1 December and could be extradited to the US to face fraud charges linked to the alleged violation of sanctions on Iran.

A judge in Vancouver set bail at C$10m (£6m; $7.4m). She will be under surveillance 24 hours a day and must wear an electronic ankle tag.

Unagi wrote: ↑Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:16 pm
I get the feeling that playing poker with Trump would be really really lucrative.

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:16 pm Politico

The Treasury Department Monday eased sanctions on Russian aluminum producer Rusal and said it would consider lifting them altogether if the company severs ties with Oleg Deripaska, a Russian oligarch with close ties to President Vladimir Putin.

The Trump administration plans to lift sanctions on companies owned by Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska after he significantly reduced his ownership stake in them.

The Treasury Department announced Wednesday that it would lift financial sanctions on Deripaska’s aluminum company, United Co. Rusal, as well as En+ Group plc and JSC EuroSibEnergo in 30 days, after Deripaska agreed to reduce his ownership stake in each of the companies to below 50 percent.
...
The sanctions on Deripaska and his companies were imposed in April under a law passed by Congress to punish Russia for interfering in the 2016 presidential election, in addition to other malign activities.

The sanctions will be lifted in 30 days, according to Treasury, but Congress could still block the move.
...
The Trump administration separately on Wednesday unveiled new sanctions on Russian intelligence officers for election interference and the nerve agent attack on an ex-Russian spy in Britain.

The Catoctin Creek Distilling Co., maker of rye whiskey, gin and the occasional fruit brandy, had big dreams of conquering Europe in 2018.

Scott and Becky Harris, founders of the small-town distillery in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains, even had handshake agreements with the cocktail shakers of London’s finest hotels.

But weeks after the Harrises’ triumphant European tour, the White House unleashed a trade war with the European Union by slapping tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The E.U. retaliated with tariffs that made some American goods, including bourbon and rye whiskey, more expensive to import.

Catoctin Creek’s orders from Europe dried up, and a potential British distributor lost interest. He “ghosted us like a bad girlfriend,” Scott Harris said from the distillery’s red-brick tasting room as a pair of shiny stills chugged away behind a plate-glass window. “He just stopped answering the phone.”
...
Barriers to Europe are especially vexing for small businesses, which often turn to the E.U. as their first export destination. The reliability of the legal system, the prevalence of English speakers and the high level of consumer income make it an easier market for small U.S. firms to navigate, entrepreneurs say.

The E.U.’s 25 percent tariffs have crimped the sales growth of a variety of U.S. exporters, including apparel companies, boat builders and peanut butter makers. Lee Zalben, founder of Peanut Butter & Co., a 15-person firm in Manhattan, said European buyers are canceling or trimming orders, or asking for discounts.

malchior wrote: ↑Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:25 pm Who could have seen this coming?

Remus West wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:56 am I haven't seen it posted here but I may have simply missed it. Did anyone else see the clip of China's negotiator laughing openly at Trump not understanding what an MOU is?
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show ... -confusion

No clip there but article on the meeting. I can not seem to find the clip now.

Remus West wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:56 am I haven't seen it posted here but I may have simply missed it. Did anyone else see the clip of China's negotiator laughing openly at Trump not understanding what an MOU is?
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show ... -confusion

No clip there but article on the meeting. I can not seem to find the clip now.

stessier wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:16 pm

Remus West wrote: ↑Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:56 am I haven't seen it posted here but I may have simply missed it. Did anyone else see the clip of China's negotiator laughing openly at Trump not understanding what an MOU is?
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show ... -confusion

No clip there but article on the meeting. I can not seem to find the clip now.

You could go with the twitter post linked in the article.



Edit: That video is way worse than the text description. Egads.

The U.S. trade deficit in goods with China set a new record during President Donald Trump’s second year in office, despite his efforts to rein in what the administration views as Beijing's trade transgressions. The trade gap rose to $419.2 billion in 2018, from the previous record of $375.5 billion in 2017, a Commerce Department report released Wednesday showed.

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:58 am Politico

The U.S. trade deficit in goods with China set a new record during President Donald Trump’s second year in office, despite his efforts to rein in what the administration views as Beijing's trade transgressions. The trade gap rose to $419.2 billion in 2018, from the previous record of $375.5 billion in 2017, a Commerce Department report released Wednesday showed.

"Last year we lost $500 billion on trade with China," Trump said at a March 23 [2018]news conference. "We can't let that happen."

Kraken wrote: ↑Thu Dec 06, 2018 9:48 pm Here's an explanation of the yield curve from Reuters.

The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession in the past 50 years. It offered a false signal just once in that time.

Time to onset of a recession ranges from 12-24 months. Now you know.

A closely watched section of the Treasury yield curve on Friday turned negative for the first time since the crisis more than a decade ago, underscoring concern about a possible economic slump and the prospect that the Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates.

The gap between the 3-month and 10-year yields vanished on Friday as a surge of buying pushed long-end rates sharply lower. Inversion is widely considered a reliable harbinger of recession in the U.S. The 10-year slipped to as low as 2.439 percent.
...
The 3-month to 10-year curve is widely favored as an indicator that the economy is within a couple of years of recession. But Friday’s move is an extension of the inversion at the front end of the curve that happened in December. The gap between the 2-year and 10-year yields has also narrowed, to around 10 basis points.

Research to be released on Monday by the economists Aaron Flaaen, of the Fed, and Ali Hortacsu and Felix Tintelnot, of Chicago, estimates that consumers bore between 125 percent and 225 percent of the costs of the washing machine tariffs. The authors calculate that the tariffs brought in $82 million to the United States Treasury, while raising consumer prices by $1.5 billion.
...
It is hardly surprising that the tariffs drove up the price of foreign washers. Perhaps more unexpectedly, they also prompted American manufacturers to raise their prices.

Companies that largely sell imported washers, like Samsung and LG, raised prices to compensate for the tariff costs they had to pay. But domestic manufacturers, like Whirlpool, increased prices, too, largely because they could.

Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) declared over the weekend that the Senate would not even consider President Trump’s renegotiated North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) deal, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, unless he first removed tariffs on steel and aluminum. Whatever the merits of this particular demand, it demonstrates the continuing stranglehold that free-trade fundamentalism holds over Republican lawmakers. The president needs to stand firm and fight this zealotry if he is going to fulfill his promise to restore the American dream for the millions whom the modern free-trade era has left behind.

Kraken wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:35 am
...
It is hardly surprising that the tariffs drove up the price of foreign washers. Perhaps more unexpectedly, they also prompted American manufacturers to raise their prices.

Companies that largely sell imported washers, like Samsung and LG, raised prices to compensate for the tariff costs they had to pay. But domestic manufacturers, like Whirlpool, increased prices, too, largely because they could.

President Trump and senior White House officials are working to salvage political support for a revised trade pact with Mexico and Canada, stunned by bipartisan blowback that appeared likely to scuttle a key initiative.

Several Democrats said Trump put on a charm offensive Tuesday during a White House meeting, soliciting their feedback on what he would need to do to win their support for an updated version of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

It was much different from the antagonistic approach he has taken with Democrats in recent weeks while they ramp up investigations into his finances and businesses. White House officials have said Trump really wants the Canada-Mexico trade deal to be successful, and he knows he needs support from Democrats to achieve this.
...
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) has told the White House this week that the trade agreement cannot pass the GOP-controlled Senate unless Trump first lifts tariffs steel and aluminum tariffs against Mexico and Canada. Trump has said he is reluctant to do this before both countries agree to import quotas, but patience among Republicans for this negotiating style has worn thin.
...
Democrats have said they will insist on strict enforcement of labor standards in exchange for their vote, and they want union leaders to be on board with any deal. Top union officials have so far refused to endorse the deal until changes are made.

Democrats have been careful, though, and have not flatly rejected the deal like they rallied to oppose many of the White House’s other tax and economic proposals. That’s in part because U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer has worked very closely with Democrats and union leaders throughout the negotiations to keep them updated on developments and seek their input. At the White House meeting on Tuesday, Democrats praised Lighthizer in front of the president

At the White House meeting on Tuesday, Democrats praised Lighthizer in front of the president