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Trump Trade War

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by pr0ner » Thu May 30, 2019 7:45 pm

JFC.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Holman » Thu May 30, 2019 7:46 pm

Jeff V wrote:
Fri May 24, 2019 6:55 pm
Here in the Midwest,if losing our biggest buyer of corn and soybean wasn't bad enough, the weather has been so shitty that, according to a news report this morning, only 10% of the summer crop has been planted thus far, compared with 80% this time a year ago. I'm in rural suburbia (my subdivision is surrounded by cornfields on 3 sides), I see the flooded fields daily. The weather forecast is for storms 14 of the next 15 days, so things aren't going to get better anytime soon.
Obviously the answer is to raise tariffs until the Chinese abandon their Climate Change hoax!
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Thu May 30, 2019 7:56 pm

This is what you do to your 3rd largest trading partner behind Canada and China, wherein NAFTA has been a positive force for every one for two decades, growing our trade both ways by 10x since 1995.

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c2010.html

But by all means tell us again how Putin is so great you didn't even have to ask for his election interference. Facts and reality mean nothing to 30% of the population and it's really looking like to much of the other 60% can't be bothered to care. Is there a point where we get what we deserve?

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Thu May 30, 2019 8:27 pm

Tariffs: Is there anything they can't do?

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Thu May 30, 2019 8:37 pm

LordMortis wrote:
Thu May 30, 2019 7:56 pm
This is what you do to your 3rd largest trading partner behind Canada and China, wherein NAFTA has been a positive force for every one for two decades, growing our trade both ways by 10x since 1995.

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c2010.html

But by all means tell us again how Putin is so great you didn't even have to ask for his election interference. Facts and reality mean nothing to 30% of the population and it's really looking like to much of the other 60% can't be bothered to care. Is there a point where we get what we deserve?
As long as the economy stays good, Trump will cruise to reelection (with a little help from the Russians and Republican cheating). Most voters vote their pocketbook, and most pocketbooks are doing alright. Fortunately (?) Trump is going to tear it down because he doesn't understand how tariffs work. Morgan Stanley has declared a "recession watch," FWIW. I hate being in the position of rooting for recession, but I do believe that's our only hope for 2020.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Thu May 30, 2019 10:10 pm

Kraken wrote:
Thu May 30, 2019 8:37 pm
LordMortis wrote:
Thu May 30, 2019 7:56 pm
This is what you do to your 3rd largest trading partner behind Canada and China, wherein NAFTA has been a positive force for every one for two decades, growing our trade both ways by 10x since 1995.

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c2010.html

But by all means tell us again how Putin is so great you didn't even have to ask for his election interference. Facts and reality mean nothing to 30% of the population and it's really looking like to much of the other 60% can't be bothered to care. Is there a point where we get what we deserve?
As long as the economy stays good, Trump will cruise to reelection (with a little help from the Russians and Republican cheating). Most voters vote their pocketbook, and most pocketbooks are doing alright. Fortunately (?) Trump is going to tear it down because he doesn't understand how tariffs work. Morgan Stanley has declared a "recession watch," FWIW. I hate being in the position of rooting for recession, but I do believe that's our only hope for 2020.
What is good economy though? More subsidies in farming? And woah boy if June 12th rolls around and the price of everything literally goes up overnight between Mexican and Chinese tariffs. Oh and cutting REE... Is that a 10% market drop in a month? Durable good manufacturing? Durable good purchasing?

If I could find a gauge it would voluntary retirement. Is there a way to track such things?

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Thu May 30, 2019 11:03 pm

The economy is roaring for the top 10%, which includes many of us. People with stock portfolios, retirement accounts, skilled jobs, good health insurance, nice houses, and all that stuff are doing fine. The farther down the ladder you go, the less relevant the rosy statistics become. An awful lot of Americans need two jobs to barely scrape by from one paycheck to the next...but at least jobs are plentiful, even if they pay diddly and don't come with benefits or security. It's still better than socialism!

Trump could still head off the recession and goose the markets by dropping his tariffs and doing an infrastructure bill. That would carry him through the next election. He often backs down after tough talk and gestures, but he's painted himself into a corner. Even though he's the kind of guy who doesn't mind traipsing paint through the house and calling it renovation, he seems to be willing to die there while blaming everybody else.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Pyperkub » Thu May 30, 2019 11:16 pm

Trade wars are actually serving to keep interest rates down as well. Not sure if the harm to consumers is worth it however. Especially if the corporate debt bubble gets (is?) as riddled with fraud as the housing bubble was in 2008.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior » Fri May 31, 2019 4:11 am

His plan is pretty reasonable. In 20 months the price of some durable goods such as car or computer parts would only double. This 'roaring' economy should easily absorb that hit. Plus the coffers will be flush with cash to build 'camps' for illegals. Win-win.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by noxiousdog » Fri May 31, 2019 7:43 am

Kraken wrote:
Thu May 30, 2019 11:03 pm
The economy is roaring for the top 10%, which includes many of us. People with stock portfolios, retirement accounts, skilled jobs, good health insurance, nice houses, and all that stuff are doing fine.
FWIW, my portfolio despite 401(k) adds and some Roth, is down since September of 2018 and my house is selling for significantly less than I expected.

The cracks are showing despite the story, and they are the same ones from the last recession. Real estate starts doing poorly despite low credit rates and full employment....
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by stessier » Fri May 31, 2019 9:18 am

To add to that, there have been a number of manufacturing companies with earning reporting surprises in the 1st quarter. I suspect more will follow in the second quarter. There are definitely cracks beginning to show.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Fri May 31, 2019 9:31 am

noxiousdog wrote:
Fri May 31, 2019 7:43 am
FWIW, my portfolio despite 401(k) adds and some Roth, is down since September of 2018 and my house is selling for significantly less than I expected.
My investments that have not been contributed to are about where they were a year ago, which is the trailing end of the corporate tax relief party hangover. Since last July we had a 10% rebound that was just finished fully evaporating this week. Only I fear this dip is just beginning. Looking at the pre market (is there really such a thing any more?) this morning, the last tweet was not received well... And more money exchanges hands... in to the people who has insight in to Xi and Trump before they go all King George.

And thinking on how Trump is going for the King George working in concert the British Ministry thing. How do his support see themselves as patriots?

These tariffs will be on consumers whom less that 1% of have the ability to remove McConnell from office. These tariffs are their Stamp Act only so he can build a vanity wall instead of paying for a war.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by hepcat » Fri May 31, 2019 10:01 am

Christ, the Mangerine believes he can just impose tariffs without any oversight whatsoever, so he's going to use them to address any grievances he has, it seems.

Trump didn't like the Game of Thrones series finale? Tariff on Ireland! Trump hates jerk chicken? Tariff on Jamaica! Trump can't spell Kazakhstan? Tariff on Mexico! (his obsession with illegal immigration prevents him from looking it up, so he blames Mexico...plus, Kazakhstan has a dictatorship, so how can he be mad at them?)
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Rumpy » Sat Jun 01, 2019 1:27 pm

So, not sure if this was already mentioned, but Pence was in Ottawa on Thursday to talk with Trudeau about the USMCA and to ratify it and move forward on it. He praised Trudeau and his family for his hospitality several times and even made a joke about the Basketball playoffs. Things seemed to be getting pretty good and I was actually impressed with how Pence handled things. Then later that same day, Trump slaps a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports pretty much ensuring that the USMCA won't be going forward anytime soon. What the hell? Perfect example of one arm not knowing what the other is doing. Not only that, but it makes his own VP look foolish. I really thought there was some progress and that we'd finally move forwards.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:23 pm

WaPo
U.S. and Mexican officials headed into a second day of talks Thursday, working to avert import tariffs that President Donald Trump in threatening to impose as he tries to strong-arm Mexico into stemming the flood of Central American migrants at America’s southern border.

Both sides claimed headway in lengthy talks Wednesday, but Trump said a “lot of progress” must still be made to halt the 5% tax on all Mexican goods that he has threatened to impose Monday as part of an escalating tariff regime opposed by many in his own Republican Party.

Underscoring the scope of the border problem, the Department of Homeland Security announced Wednesday that U.S. Border Patrol apprehensions of migrants illegally crossing the border hit the highest level in more than a decade in May: 132,887 apprehensions, including a record 84,542 adults and children traveling together and 11,507 children traveling alone.

Trump, who is currently traveling in Europe, tweeted from Ireland that the Washington talks would continue “with the understanding that, if no agreement is reached, Tariffs at the 5% level will begin on Monday, with monthly increases as per schedule.”
...
Administration officials have also said Mexico can prevent the tariffs by securing its southern border with Guatemala and cracking down on criminal smuggling organizations. But the U.S. has not proposed any concrete metrics to assess whether Mexico is complying, and it is unclear whether even those steps would be enough to satisfy Trump on illegal immigration, a signature issue of his presidency and one that he sees as crucial to his 2020 re-election campaign.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:31 pm

Mexico security forces have stopped a Guatamalan immigrant caravan.

Success.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:37 pm

In one hopeful angle, Senate Republicans are threatening to develop a spine. If they do, Trump will probably back down rather than start a fight that he will lose.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by hepcat » Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:46 pm

While declaring victory at the same time.

His inability to admit when he's wrong is truly astounding. While his need to openly lie about it is truly psychotic.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LawBeefaroni » Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:51 pm

GreenGoo wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 12:31 pm
Mexico security forces have stopped a Guatamalan immigrant caravan.

Success.
It would be cheaper if Mexico just gave them all MAGA hats and sent them north. We could then welcome them with open arms. It would also eliminate the whole "citizenship question" controversy.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Skinypupy » Fri Jun 07, 2019 10:00 pm

Just kidding everyone! False alarm.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Fri Jun 07, 2019 10:22 pm

Skinypupy wrote:
Fri Jun 07, 2019 10:00 pm
Just kidding everyone! False alarm.

The cease-fire will forestall that economic reckoning and prevent an intraparty war that Mr. Trump had created by threatening tariffs to leverage the immigration changes he demanded. That tactic had drawn stiff protests from Republicans, including many senators, who have long opposed tariffs and worried the measure would hurt American companies and consumers.
I figured but I hadn't hoped that my figuring would become a reality. A lot of red states lured a lot of manufacturing and assembly jobs based on trade with Mexico over the last 20 to 25 years and all of that was jeopardy, to say nothing of the price of produce and electronics. They can pretend to attack NAFTA all they want but in the end over a half a trillion a year in trade that has grown from NAFTA, which has, in fact, reduced crime and poverty at the border and it's the red southern states the benefit most from this, which includes the shift of auto away from Detroit.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:06 pm

Most likely McConnell talked him down, as I predicted. Trump saves us from another crisis he created. My hero!

It remains to be seen whether Mexico's promises will translate into actions, and whether those actions will make any measurable difference. Poor Mexico really didn't hold any good cards at this table...they had to give the bully at least some of what he demanded, or at least pretend to. I wonder whether he bribed them or beat it out of them. Probably the latter; Mexico's a pushover. Either way, he'll be back for more. The MAGA hats love this kind of theater.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Sat Jun 08, 2019 1:09 am


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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Skinypupy » Sat Jun 08, 2019 5:19 pm

Mexico agreed to all this stuff months ago but Trump wanted to make it look like he won because of threatening tariffs.
The deal to avert tariffs that President Trump announced with great fanfare on Friday night consists largely of actions that Mexico had already promised to take in prior discussions with the United States over the past several months, according to officials from both countries who are familiar with the negotiations.

Friday’s joint declaration says Mexico agreed to the “deployment of its National Guard throughout Mexico, giving priority to its southern border.” But the Mexican government had already pledged to do that in March during secret talks in Miami between Kirstjen Nielsen, then the secretary of homeland security, and Olga Sanchez, the Mexican secretary of the interior, the officials said.

The centerpiece of Mr. Trump’s deal was an expansion of a program to allow asylum-seekers to remain in Mexico while their legal cases proceed. But that arrangement was first reached in December in a pair of painstakingly negotiated diplomatic notes that the two countries exchanged. Ms. Nielsen announced the Migrant Protection Protocols during a hearing of the House Judiciary Committee five days before Christmas.

And over the past week, negotiators failed to persuade Mexico to accept a “safe third country” treaty that would have given the United States the legal ability to reject asylum seekers if they had not sought refuge in Mexico first.

It was unclear whether Mr. Trump believed that the agreement truly represented new and broader concessions, or whether the president understood the limits of the deal but accepted it as a face-saving way to escape from the political and economic consequences of imposing tariffs on Mexico.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Sat Jun 08, 2019 5:50 pm

Whatever the reality behind the scenes, the optics are a clear win for Trump. He will do this again when he needs to seize the headlines and fire up his base.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LawBeefaroni » Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:17 am

Kraken wrote:
Sat Jun 08, 2019 5:50 pm
Whatever the reality behind the scenes, the optics are a clear win for Trump. He will do this again when he needs to seize the headlines and fire up his base.
He only has to fool some of the people all of the time.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:54 am

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:17 am
Kraken wrote:
Sat Jun 08, 2019 5:50 pm
Whatever the reality behind the scenes, the optics are a clear win for Trump. He will do this again when he needs to seize the headlines and fire up his base.
He only has to fool some of the people all of the time.
Aye. To me the optics are a clear loss, but I don't matter. I'm struggling to find how the optics could possibly be a win under any microscope but no doubt five minutes with those who would inform me the economy has never been better and it is all due to Trump won't have seen it that way I'm sure.

Curious kraken, what lens are you seeing the win through? That Trump tweeted there is a new agreement in place? I will fully admit his tweet threat was enough to mobilize the business world and the Senate but did his follow up claim of victory make more believers? Am I that out of touch that this works and I can't see it?

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:05 pm

WaPo
President Trump on Monday threatened to impose large tariffs on $300 billion in imports if Chinese leader Xi Jinping did not meet with him in Japan later this month, showing how he plans to immediately pivot from his trade war with Mexico back to Beijing.

Trump, in a wide-ranging and apparently impromptu interview with CNBC, said he was “scheduled to have a meeting” with Xi during the Group of 20 summit in Osaka, but Chinese officials have refused to publicly confirm the gathering.

“We do not want a trade war, but we are not afraid of fighting one,” said Geng Shuang, spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “If the U.S. is ready to have equal consultations, our door is wide open. But if it insists on escalating trade frictions, we will respond to it with resolution and perseverance.”

If Xi doesn’t meet with him, Trump said that he will move forward with tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese imports, which includes numerous consumer products.
:|

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:16 pm

This is the entirety of his deal making expertise.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:18 pm

Anyone still have our chicken-moon facepalm?

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:44 pm

LordMortis wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:54 am
Curious kraken, what lens are you seeing the win through? That Trump tweeted there is a new agreement in place? I will fully admit his tweet threat was enough to mobilize the business world and the Senate but did his follow up claim of victory make more believers? Am I that out of touch that this works and I can't see it?
He threatened to blow up the world if Mexico didn't dance to his tune. Mexico rushed a high-level delegation to Washington. Mexico caved and the apocalypse was averted. To the casually informed citizen, it's that simple.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Skinypupy » Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:36 pm

Kraken wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:44 pm
LordMortis wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:54 am
Curious kraken, what lens are you seeing the win through? That Trump tweeted there is a new agreement in place? I will fully admit his tweet threat was enough to mobilize the business world and the Senate but did his follow up claim of victory make more believers? Am I that out of touch that this works and I can't see it?
He threatened to blow up the world if Mexico didn't dance to his tune. Mexico rushed a high-level delegation to Washington. Mexico caved and the apocalypse was averted. To the casually informed citizen, it's that simple.
Anecdotal, but my lunch discussion today with an "I don't pay any attention to politics" friend pretty much confirmed Kraken's theory. All he saw were headlines about Mexico agreeing to Trump's terms.

That's a gross oversimplification without all the additional content, but - sadly - all the casual observer is likely to see or remember.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Jun 10, 2019 3:42 pm

Politico
By Monday morning, the president’s victory lap had screeched to a halt.

As news outlets began chipping away at the agreement’s veneer, pointing out that it wasn’t the game-changer that Trump made it out to be, the president started lashing out, painting himself as a victim and insisting that he’s not getting the credit he deserves.

In the span of three days, he fired off more than a dozen angry Twitter messages complaining about media coverage. He promised there was more to the deal than meets the eye, teasing a “very important” part of the agreement that will be “revealed in the not too distant future.” And he called into CNBC for a 27-minute, impromptu interview in which he bashed the U.S. Chamber of Commerce for criticizing his approach to trade negotiations while offering few new details about the deal.
...
It’s a familiar pattern for Trump. As his presidency reaches the 2.5-year mark, he is more aggrieved than ever, telling advisers that he believes he’ll never get fair treatment from the media and establishment politicians that he believes hate him.
...
The president took particular umbrage with comments made by Myron Brilliant, the U.S. Chamber’s head of international affairs, on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday morning. Soon after Brilliant criticized Trump’s “weaponization of tariffs,” the president called into CNBC to respond, bashing the Chamber and saying he may resign his membership in the group as a result.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Max Peck » Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:05 pm

The impact of tariffs, writ small.

Why one U.S. can-maker avoids Trump's tariffs while rivals pay up
One of the largest U.S. producers of aerosol cans, Colorado-based Ball Metalpack, has laid off 91 of its 500 U.S. workers since President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported steel that abruptly hiked the firm’s raw materials costs.

At a chief competitor, DS Containers, the story is different. The subsidiary of Japan’s Daiwa Can Co has added more than 80 workers over 18 months at its two Illinois plants, bringing employment to 232.

Rivals of the Japanese-owned firm say the reason for its success is simple - it’s not paying the tariff, allowing the firm to snatch business from competitors who have been forced to raise prices to cover their higher materials costs. The U.S. Commerce Department granted DS Containers an exemption from the import tax because it uses a raw material, plastic-laminated steel, that isn’t produced by U.S. steelmakers.

Firms that use standard tin-plated steel, including Ball Metalpack and Mauser Packaging Solutions, have seen their exemption applications denied or delayed by Commerce after U.S. steelmakers objected to them, arguing the material is available domestically. Executives from the can makers counter that domestic steelmakers can’t produce nearly enough tinplate to meet their needs - forcing them to keep importing and paying tariffs.
Who could have foreseen that domestic steel producers wouldn't increase production to meet demand?
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Skinypupy » Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:05 pm

Here's the full text of the hugest, bigliest "deal" that Mexico signed.



They literally agreed to nothing. It's basically, "We'll think about it and might have a meeting at some point. And if that doesn't happen, we might agree to think about it some more. Maybe."

Truly the art of the deal.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:30 am

WaPo
President Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on virtually all products from China is running into a wall of opposition from the business community, amid fears that what began as a temporary negotiating tool is becoming a permanent feature of trans-Pacific trade.

Starting on Monday, hundreds of companies are scheduled to testify before the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) over seven days of hearings on the president’s proposal to expand tariffs to an additional $300 billion in Chinese imports. After a year-long trade war, those are the only Chinese imports that remain duty-free.

USTR has received more than 1,600 written comments on the plan, with the overwhelming majority warning that additional tariffs would raise prices for consumers, cost American jobs and disrupt production at companies across the nation.
...
The avalanche of complaints suggests that industry patience with the president’s tariff-heavy trade policy is evaporating. His sudden threat last month to impose tariffs on Mexican imports in a dispute over border security coupled with fading prospects for a comprehensive trade deal with China explain the increasingly vocal opposition, according to trade analysts and executives.

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Isgrimnur
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:23 pm

CNN
Late Tuesday US Steel announced it will idle two of the blast furnaces where it makes steel, one in its flagship mill in Gary, Indiana, near Chicago, the other in Ecorse, Michigan, near Detroit. The idled furnaces will cut production by about 200,000 tons of steel or more a month, the company said.

"We will resume blast furnace production at one or both idled blast furnaces when market conditions improve," said the company.

US Steel (X) also cut its earnings outlook and shut an additional blast furnace in Europe. Although some of the drop in profit is because of the slowdown in the European economy, it pointed to softening demand in the American market as well. US manufacturing has been slowing recently.

US Steel's action follows similar warnings Monday from Nucor (NUE), the nation's largest steelmaker, and Steel Dynamics (STLD). Both are now forecasting lower profits. Nucor pointed to weaker demand from the US auto industry. Steel Dynamics said steel prices have declined across its line of products.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:02 am

I haven't talked to chaosraven in awhile. I hope that's not him. :(

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:52 pm

WaPo
“People are starting to say, ‘I don’t know how we’re going to survive this,’ ” said Martinmaas, who voted for Trump in 2016, but says he’s open to a Democrat like Montana Gov. Steve Bullock this time. “You know, we’re the ones taking the brunt of it in all these negotiations, so they need to be kind of helping us out right now.”
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But a survey of farmers released this month by Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture shows rising pessimism, with only 20 percent saying they believe the trade war with China will be resolved by July 1, down from 45 percent in March.
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Trump tweeted that he had reached a deal with Mexico in response to the country’s pledge to take “strong measures” to curb the influx of Central American migrants, averting the tariff threat.

Randy saw this as a win; Martinmaas isn’t so sure. He doesn’t like the idea of farmers being used as pawns.

“We want the border secured, but there might be other ways to do it rather than using the farmers as a stick to beat Mexico over the head,” he said. “Farm states elected him, and everyone around here is still giving him the benefit of the doubt. But if, in a year and a half, we’re still in the same boat, he’s not getting elected.”

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LawBeefaroni » Fri Jun 21, 2019 4:18 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:52 pm
WaPo
“You know, we’re the ones taking the brunt of it in all these negotiations, so they need to be kind of helping us out right now.”
...
Typical rural liberal elitists. Always seeking a government handout.

Thing is, they'll get more subsidies to keep those votes.
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