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The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

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The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Carpet_pissr » Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:49 pm

Thought I would create a real timey-ish thread to discuss results as they come in.

Unfortunately, it looks like our idiot Governor, the Honorable Foghorn Leghorn, will retain his post, thanks again to Nikki Haley abandoning hers. Welcome to 4 more years of "paradise"!

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Also, the infamous Joe "YOU LIE!!" Wilson will be re-elected easily.

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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Defiant » Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:53 pm

Some useful resources for election night watching (some of which I've posted in the other thread):

To see what important races/referenda/etc are up: http://whatsontheballot.com/

Fivethirtyeight's forecasts: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... ast/house/

538 will, I assume, also have a live blog.

And current a couple of other predictions:



Sabato's Crystal Ball:
Our ratings changes leave 229 seats at least leaning to the Democrats and 206 at least leaning to the Republicans, so we are expecting the Democrats to pick up more than 30 seats (our precise ratings now show Democrats netting 34 seats in the House, 11 more than the 23 they need). We have long cautioned against assuming the House was a done deal for the Democrats, and we don’t think readers should be stunned if things go haywire for Democrats tomorrow night. That said, it may be just as likely — or even more likely — that we’re understating the Democrats in the House. Many of our sources on both sides seemed to think the Democratic tally would be more like +35 to 40 (or potentially even higher) when we checked in with them over the weekend.
Because of the bad map Democrats faced this year, the GOP picking up seats always seemed like a possibility, even a strong possibility. Our final ratings reaffirm this potential; we have 52 Senate seats at least leaning to the Republicans, and 48 at least leaning to the Democrats. If that happened, the GOP would net a seat.
The reasonable range of outcomes in the Senate still seems fairly wide, with a bigger GOP gain possible, or no gain at all or even a Democratic gain. The Democrats still essentially have no path to the majority without winning one of these three states: North Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas, and the Republicans retain what appear to be edges in all three.
Right now, the Republicans hold 33 governorships, the Democrats just 16, and an independent, Bill Walker holds Alaska. Our ratings suggest the Democrats could net 10 governorships, while the GOP could lose nine (we favor Republicans to pick up Alaska, which throws off the net change statistic a little bit). That does not include Georgia, where we are maintaining a unique “Toss-up/Leans Runoff” rating in anticipation of a possible runoff on Dec. 4 if neither major party candidate gets a majority.

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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Smoove_B » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:32 am

Whoa that's some crazy data:
29 states + DC surpassed their 2014 total #earlyvote: DC, DE, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, KS, LA, MA, ME, MD, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NJ, NM, OK, SC, TN, VA, UT, VT, WI, and WV 3 states surpassed their 2014 total vote (early + Election Day): AZ, NV, and TX

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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Moliere » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:36 am



Election night tracking sheet.
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Chaz » Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:45 am

I'm just hoping five beers and half a bottle of whiskey are enough to get me through the night. I have backup rum, vodka, and Bailey's, but I hope I don't need to break into those.
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Grifman » Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:46 am

Voted! Make America Not Stupid Again!
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Carpet_pissr » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:12 am

Not sure if anyone saw Pelosi on Colbert, but it further reinforced my opinion that she needs to go. The hubris about the midterms is ridiculous in the face of what happened in the past three years:

https://youtu.be/JPRX1CkuBL8

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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Vorret » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:40 am

I never really follow US elections but I guess this year is special. Is there an app I can download that would send me updates ? I won't be at home tonight.
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by malchior » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:54 am

Voted as well. I am pretty well informed aside from the fact that I arbitrarily voted for School Board members because I have no way of getting information about the people and frankly...I don't care.
Carpet_pissr wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:12 am
Not sure if anyone saw Pelosi on Colbert, but it further reinforced my opinion that she needs to go. The hubris about the midterms is ridiculous in the face of what happened in the past three years:

https://youtu.be/JPRX1CkuBL8
Agreed. She is supposedly excellent behind the scenes and maybe that is where she should remain. Plus at this point I want the boomers to release their death grip. 30-odd years of fucking up this country has been enough.

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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Defiant » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:03 am

I still think Pelosi's ability in keeping the caucus together is important until Trump is gone. But I do think she needs to be grooming new leadership, for when Trump is gone.

Though I imagine Pelosi's future will probably depend on how good or bad the Democrats do tonight.

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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by stessier » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:30 am

I have to vote either at lunch or after work. The lines were crazy at all the polling places I drove by. Might be due to the predicted rain around lunch time. Might be higher voter turnout.
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Holman » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:54 am

malchior wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:54 am
Voted as well. I am pretty well informed aside from the fact that I arbitrarily voted for School Board members because I have no way of getting information about the people and frankly...I don't care.
Not to dump on you (and I don't know where you live), but it can definitely be worth your while to research school board candidates. There's a concentrated effort to get hard-core right-wingers onto school boards, where they can determine which textbooks are used, whether counselors are allowed to talk about sexual identity, etc.
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Daehawk » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:07 am

The Chattanooga school board is getting reamed because they wont hear complaints..or actually hear anyone. The bastards get paid to do what they want and never listen to anyone.
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:18 am

I spent an hour voting on the judges alone. No way I can do that in the booth.

I'm thinking I'll do mail-in from now on.
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Daehawk » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:19 am

How Antivax PACs Helped Shape Midterm Ballots

On the bright side they have a tendency to get sick and die. Too bad they harm the innocent with their stupidity.
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Jeff V » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:21 am

So apparently part of the GOP voter suppression campaign involves encouraging immigrants to register to vote after their naturalization ceremony then not actually processing those registrations so they think they are good to go but really are not. Fortunately, we encountered a very patient election worker who helped my wife get registered on the spot. Equally fortunate was my wife had just barely enough required ID to get registered. So it took a little longer, but we were out of there by 6:40 am.

I was amused though when we pulled up to the polling place and my wife asked why no candidate gave us money to vote for them like they do in the Philippines. It was a serious question.

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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Daehawk » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:23 am

The more I read your posts the more I wonder how such a backward place is still around Jeff geez.
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:24 am

The wife reported a long line at 8:30 am. New this time is a required application in order to get a ballot. It's slowing things down.

Also, the ward Democrats were outside doing their usual handouts and strongly verbally encouraging people to vote out a particular judge.
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Zarathud » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:31 am

Took 10 minutes to vote at the new polling place. This being Chicago, most elections were decided in the primary. Very easy, and voting for judges involves looking for the 3-4 unqualified/bad judges in the lot. One of the Cook County Commissioners on the ballot is on my shit list, so I voted for his Republican opponent. Not that the guy has any chance of losing.

Voter initiatives were stupid for a Democratic city -- Yes to $13/hr minimum wage by 2020, 40 hours sick time, and gun control. No to marijuana education/mental health slush fund, rent control, property tax exemptions, straw ban, mayoral term limits and new Consumer Advocate with no powers except FOIA and business regulation.
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Ralph-Wiggum » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:34 am

Voted this morning ~8:00. There was a pretty good line, but this is my first time voting in St. Louis so I have no idea how it compares to past years.

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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by malchior » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:38 am

Holman wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:54 am
malchior wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:54 am
Voted as well. I am pretty well informed aside from the fact that I arbitrarily voted for School Board members because I have no way of getting information about the people and frankly...I don't care.
Not to dump on you (and I don't know where you live), but it can definitely be worth your while to research school board candidates. There's a concentrated effort to get hard-core right-wingers onto school boards, where they can determine which textbooks are used, whether counselors are allowed to talk about sexual identity, etc.
I tried - there was pretty much no way to get information aside from going to school board meetings. I don't have children so that just seemed extreme. I live in a fairly liberal area so I'm not too worried about the above.

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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Blackhawk » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:38 am

I just got back from voting. Only two people were ahead of me. Luckily, plenty of locals were set up outside in lawn chairs to keep the caravans away. :roll:
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by coopasonic » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:42 am

I am heading home at 11 to grab the wife and vote and maybe grab lunch (or play a video game or two) before I have to be back for a 1pm meeting. The high school is a new location for voting and school is in session today so I am not sure where to go, but we'll figure out.

There were a couple BETO signs on the main drag through our neighborhood, but this morning they were lying in the street. :evil:
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:43 am

Zarathud wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:31 am
Took 10 minutes to vote at the new polling place. This being Chicago, most elections were decided in the primary. Very easy, and voting for judges involves looking for the 3-4 unqualified/bad judges in the lot.
I read the Chicago council of Lawyers narrative and then cross checked all the bar ratings. When I added in other recommendations, I think I had like 7 or 8 nos.

Not that it matters, with 60% nos required only the one will probably lose his job.
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Holman » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:45 am

Voted just before 8:00 a.m., as usual.

Impressive line suddenly seemed even more so when I realized I was comparing it to a presidential year.
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by stessier » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:46 am

Daehawk wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:23 am
The more I read your posts the more I wonder how such a backward place is still around Jeff geez.
Chicago is so central to the US that it's unlikely to simply fade away.
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Vorret » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:47 am

Blackhawk wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:38 am
I just got back from voting. Only two people were ahead of me. Luckily, plenty of locals were set up outside in lawn chairs to keep the caravans away. :roll:
The one from south america? and you're in Indiana?
Why not ...
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Jeff V » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:49 am

malchior wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:38 am
Holman wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:54 am
malchior wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:54 am
Voted as well. I am pretty well informed aside from the fact that I arbitrarily voted for School Board members because I have no way of getting information about the people and frankly...I don't care.
Not to dump on you (and I don't know where you live), but it can definitely be worth your while to research school board candidates. There's a concentrated effort to get hard-core right-wingers onto school boards, where they can determine which textbooks are used, whether counselors are allowed to talk about sexual identity, etc.
I tried - there was pretty much no way to get information aside from going to school board meetings. I don't have children so that just seemed extreme. I live in a fairly liberal area so I'm not too worried about the above.
The donkey party didn't even field any school board candidates - the elephants were unopposed (as they were for sheriff and one or two other posts). I forgot to mention this possibility to my wife, who correctly voted for nobody in those positions. While politically I live in a traditionally elephant-infested shithole, there are signs it is changing. I don't see the lunatic far-right agenda being advanced in my area.

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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Blackhawk » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:51 am

Vorret wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:47 am
Blackhawk wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:38 am
I just got back from voting. Only two people were ahead of me. Luckily, plenty of locals were set up outside in lawn chairs to keep the caravans away. :roll:
The one from south america? and you're in Indiana?
Why not ...
All people who aren't white look the same to the folks around here.
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Fitzy » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:57 am

Vorret wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:47 am
Blackhawk wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:38 am
I just got back from voting. Only two people were ahead of me. Luckily, plenty of locals were set up outside in lawn chairs to keep the caravans away. :roll:
The one from south america? and you're in Indiana?
Why not ...
Central America!

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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Zaxxon » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:57 am

coopasonic wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:42 am
BETO
Please make this happen.

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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Holman » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:01 pm

Jeff V wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:49 am
malchior wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:38 am
Holman wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:54 am
malchior wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:54 am
Voted as well. I am pretty well informed aside from the fact that I arbitrarily voted for School Board members because I have no way of getting information about the people and frankly...I don't care.
Not to dump on you (and I don't know where you live), but it can definitely be worth your while to research school board candidates. There's a concentrated effort to get hard-core right-wingers onto school boards, where they can determine which textbooks are used, whether counselors are allowed to talk about sexual identity, etc.
I tried - there was pretty much no way to get information aside from going to school board meetings. I don't have children so that just seemed extreme. I live in a fairly liberal area so I'm not too worried about the above.
The donkey party didn't even field any school board candidates - the elephants were unopposed (as they were for sheriff and one or two other posts). I forgot to mention this possibility to my wife, who correctly voted for nobody in those positions. While politically I live in a traditionally elephant-infested shithole, there are signs it is changing. I don't see the lunatic far-right agenda being advanced in my area.
If you're around Chicago, the power of a GOP school board is probably offset by the power of a strong Teacher's Union.

The more rural and the more Red State you go, the less that's the case.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.

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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Defiant » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:11 pm

When 82-year-old Gracie Lou Phillips returned from early voting last week in North Texas, she “danced a little jig” around her walker, then sat down and raised her fists into the air, her family said.

“I voted!” she declared.

Until then, Phillips, from Grand Prairie, had never cast a ballot — the result of misapprehension about voting and the belief that she didn’t have a voice, her family said.

But her son-in-law, Jeff Griffith, said that in recent years, voting had become extremely important to Phillips, and she wanted to have a say in the 2018 midterm elections.

So despite being gravely ill, Phillips cast her first-ever ballot during early voting Thursday in Grand Prairie.

On Monday, she died.
link

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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:15 pm

Zarathud wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:31 am

Voter initiatives were stupid for a Democratic city -- Yes to $13/hr minimum wage by 2020, 40 hours sick time, and gun control. No to marijuana education/mental health slush fund, rent control, property tax exemptions, straw ban, mayoral term limits and new Consumer Advocate with no powers except FOIA and business regulation.
I voted no on minimum wage because it was "should your municipality match the Cook County minimum wage. " It's already Cook County law, right? What is the point of linking municipalities to match?

No to sick time because the sick time rules are one-size-fits all and they do not work for a lot of industries. The new sick time rules screw up nursing rotations big time. I mean it's too late, like above, but no on the question anyway.

Yes to stricter penalties for illegal/straw gun sales/purchases. Don't like the gun dealer certification part but eh.

Yes to Chicago getting a crack at Marajuana revenue for educstion and BH.

Didn't have a question about rent control.


Yes to allowing property tax exemptions to 10-year plus resident families earning under $100k year. Lots of multi-generational families are being gentrified out of homes they own free and clear because the property taxes are ridiculous.

No to drinking straw ban. Wtf.

No to mayoral term limits.

Yes to moving Consumer Advocate from appointed to elected position.

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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Jeff V » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:18 pm

Huh, so the votes of dead people count in Texas. I always thought that was an uniquely Chicago thing.

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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Jeff V » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:24 pm

We only had 3 ballot issues: should the county (Kendall) support the proposed vehicle mileage tax? (hell NO!) Should the county enact a 1% sales tax? (kiss my ass, NO!) Should the county support a 1% property tax increase to support the state pension fund? (you gotta be fucking kidding me..NO!)

Of course, the way the questions were worded. the correct responses were Yes, Yes, No. I do hope my wife picked up on that.

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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Smoove_B » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:25 pm

Voted this morning at 9am and had to wait in line for about 30 minutes before being able to use machine. My town only has about 2200 people (as of the last census) so it was rather surprising as I didn't need to wait nearly as long in the 2016 election.

That being said, my town is full of deplorables, so high turnout doesn't make me feel good. For the next cycle, I'm either going to switch my in-person voting to a much later time (like after 5pm when most of the town is napping) or just start voting by mail. The interesting thing that I didn't know about NJ's mail vote law is that if you have *ever* voted by mail in the state of NJ, it now indicates that on the form if you try to sign in to vote in person and they won't let you. Instead, you need to complete a provisional ballot on the spot and it will only be counted if a mail in ballot for you isn't submitted.

Anyway, I predict an crazy, crazy day here in NJ. Weather is supposed to clear later on but right now it's a total mess in my part of the state.

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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Zaxxon » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:32 pm

Beto blatantly demonstrating voter fraud.


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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:42 pm

Zaxxon wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:32 pm
Beto blatantly demonstrating voter fraud.

Come on, that's not voter fraud. It's clear evidence of at least 3 incidents of sticker theft. Each of which is a class C misdemeanor.
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Zaxxon
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Re: The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Post by Zaxxon » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:43 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:42 pm
Come on, that's not voter fraud. It's clear evidence of at least 3 incidents of sticker theft. Each of which is a class C misdemeanor.
And some, I assume, are good people.

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