The MidTerm Elections thread (2018)

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:54 pm

Ugh; another Pence.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:25 pm

stessier wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:39 pm I'm going to bed. Hopefully we're all still here in the morning.

Uhh. Why wouldn't we be?

gilraen wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:54 pm
pr0ner wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:49 pm It's weird that they consider Virginia competitive - I would be shocked if Corey Stewart's vote totals are anywhere close to Kaine's.
Yeah, they already called Virginia for Kaine - it was one of the first calls of the night.

Speaking of VA, they just called VA-10 for Wexton, so that's the first house seat flip of the night.

Reading some of the responses to Fox News's tweet calling the race for Kaine was alternatively funny and WTF worthy.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:28 pm

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:32 pm

"They", whoever that is, are calling Pritzker in Illinois (over Rauner).

$iljanus · Post by **$iljanus** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:33 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:28 pm

Now that I’m in for the night I think I’ll be pouring myself a glass of some top quality Mezcal to nurse through the evening.

(Depending on how it goes it could go to 2 glasses...)

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:34 pm

Folks naming names: please include (R) or (D) or whatever.

We don't have the bandwidth to know every candidate.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:42 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:34 pm Folks naming names: please include (R) or (D) or whatever.

We don't have the bandwidth to know every candidate.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:32 pm "They", whoever that is, are calling Pritzker in Illinois (over Rauner).

Pritzker (D), $170M.spent, net worth: $3B.
Rauner (R), $70M spent, net worth: a few hundred million.

Enough · Post by **Enough** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:52 pm

Getting 2016 chills over here.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:55 pm

NJ media is already calling the race for human garbage person Menendez (D), maintaining his Senate seat against larger garbage person Hugin (R).

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:56 pm

One.

Of the people I voted for, it looks like one (local sheriff) will win.

One. I feel so represented.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:01 pm

Enough wrote:Getting 2016 chills over here.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

We live in a country full of garbage people.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:01 pm

Enough wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:52 pm Getting 2016 chills over here.

Total PTSD here. Puking in my throat a little.

GungHo · Post by **GungHo** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:02 pm

Enough wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:52 pm Getting 2016 chills over here.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

Yeah. Definitely don't have any warm fuzzies.

gilraen · Post by **gilraen** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:03 pm

Out of 27 Florida House race, one seat flipped from Republican to Dem, one seat too close to call, the rest maintain status quo.

IN Senate: called for Braun(R). There goes another incumbent Democrat.
TN Senate: called for Blackburn(R). Extra disappointing, considering that Bredesen was looking really strong in the polls, and Blackburn is a piece of garbage.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:12 pm

Holman wrote:
Enough wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:52 pm Getting 2016 chills over here.

Total PTSD here. Puking in my throat a little.

Same here. God, this sucks. Look forward to seeing more harping on xenophobia in future elections. That’s what this means, in part. The caravan message worked and will be used heavily in the future.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:33 pm

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:56 pm One.

Of the people I voted for, it looks like one (local sheriff) will win.

One. I feel so represented.

At least you had a choice and he/she won. Cook County Sheriff went unopposed. Again.

Zaxxon · Post by **Zaxxon** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:34 pm

538 now has house flip to D at 55%, down from 90+ an hour ago. More beer, please.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:34 pm

Nate just dropped their forecast of Dems take the House to 66% on the fly.

Edit: Correction 55% now. This is a looking like a bad day for decency. Again.

Edit: Again - I see it is a real time forecast versus his previous model. Deleting my bitch-y comment.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:38 pm

malchior wrote:Nate just dropped their forecast of Dems take the House to 66% on the fly. As a data science guy - that is pretty garbage-y. Stick by your model. If it is wrong, it is wrong.

Edit: Correction 55% now. This is a looking like a bad day for decency. Again.

Why is 538 considered so great, again? (Serious question)

They sure missed 2016 as well, now this? I thought they ‘locked’ their forecasts hours ago.

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:40 pm

Deja fucking vu.

Who could have guessed? Not like we’ve ever seen anything like this before.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:41 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:38 pm
malchior wrote:Nate just dropped their forecast of Dems take the House to 66% on the fly. As a data science guy - that is pretty garbage-y. Stick by your model. If it is wrong, it is wrong.

Edit: Correction 55% now. This is a looking like a bad day for decency. Again.
Why is 538 considered so great, again? (Serious question)

They sure missed 2016 as well, now this? I thought they ‘locked’ their forecasts hours ago.

They are only as good as the polls.

geezer · Post by **geezer** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:42 pm

OTOH, Fox is projecting the House, in aggregate, for the Dems. I have no idea what to think...

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:45 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:38 pm
malchior wrote:Nate just dropped their forecast of Dems take the House to 66% on the fly. As a data science guy - that is pretty garbage-y. Stick by your model. If it is wrong, it is wrong.

Edit: Correction 55% now. This is a looking like a bad day for decency. Again.
Why is 538 considered so great, again? (Serious question)

They sure missed 2016 as well, now this? I thought they ‘locked’ their forecasts hours ago.

There will be a lot of questions about his models going forward. There is a obviously a chance for losses built in but 2 times in a row with high percentage predictions are very big misses. Honestly though it could be mean statistical modeling is broken vis a vis our polling and there are secret Trumpists. Or lots of reasons.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:46 pm

Everything I’m watching has the dems taking the house and losing ground in the Senate. That’s pretty much what was expected no? I had no grand delusions that they would take the Senate.

Combustible Lemur · Post by **Combustible Lemur** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:49 pm

Octavious wrote:Everything I’m watching has the dems taking the house and losing ground in the Senate. That’s pretty much what was expected no? I had no grand delusions that they would take the Senate.

They're losing Florida. But Beto is looking pretty fucking good. He running up numbers in Houston Austin and Dallas and is suspected to really run up numbers in El paso. Which closes an hour later than the rest of the state.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:49 pm

gilraen wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:03 pm Out of 27 Florida House race, one seat flipped from Republican to Dem, one seat too close to call, the rest maintain status quo.

IN Senate: called for Braun(R). There goes another incumbent Democrat.
TN Senate: called for Blackburn(R). Extra disappointing, considering that Bredesen was looking really strong in the polls, and Blackburn is a piece of garbage.

Bredesen was looking strong until Kavanaugh. I suspect that fight may have cost the Dems some, especially in the Senate.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:51 pm

Things aren't looking good for MI D Senator Stabenow. If these were pre-2008 times, I'd be happy to see her go.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:52 pm

If the Dems take the house and Cruz is out I consider that a victory. Fingers crossed.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:02 pm

Feel good story from NJ -- Mikie Sherrill wins House seat for Democrats, beats Jay Webber

The race between Sherrill, a former Navy pilot and ex-federal prosecutor, and Webber, a state assemblyman, came as Democrats across the nation were trying to regain control of the House from the GOP in midterm elections considered a referendum on Republican President Donald Trump.

Sherrill, 46, who had never run for office before, will succeed retiring Republican Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, who has held the seat since 1995. The district had been a Republican stronghold for decades.
...

The 11th District is home to 557,552 registered voters, the highest total of N.J.'s 12 congressional districts.

Of those, there are 172,246 Republicans, 166,087 Democrats and 216,207 unaffiliated voters, according to the New Jersey Secretary of State.

I'd like to give a special F.U. to Rodney Frelinghuysen. I hope you have chronic diarrhea the rest of your shitty life.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:03 pm

I keep seeing Dems taking house and losing Senate. As was projected. I dont like the numbers that I am seeing out of FL, that's too damn close. I really dont like how close this election is overall. Means Trump's message resonated as someone noted earlier. Means more intense partisanship. I hope, I hope the dems can do some damage in the state legislative races and Governors. If they whoop ass there, then I'll be cool with losing the senate. Really amazed at how close it is overall.

Newcastle · Post by **Newcastle** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:04 pm

Other thing too, I am betting the D's pick up all of the CA seats.

Combustible Lemur · Post by **Combustible Lemur** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:05 pm

Msnbc projecting 95% dems take house. I like Steve kernake their numbers guy.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Little Raven · Post by **Little Raven** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:11 pm

I'm pulling for him, but Beto isn't looking good.

Still, he ran a hell of a race in a solid red state.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:12 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:34 pm Nate just dropped their forecast of Dems take the House to 66% on the fly.

Edit: Correction 55% now. This is a looking like a bad day for decency. Again.

Edit: Again - I see it is a real time forecast versus his previous model. Deleting my bitch-y comment.

Strange, I just checked and they had Dems at 90%.

noxiousdog · Post by **noxiousdog** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:13 pm

Little Raven wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:11 pm I'm pulling for him, but Beto isn't looking good.

Still, he ran a hell of a race in a solid red state.

ABC just called it for Cruz. But way closer than was expected.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:14 pm

Combustible Lemur wrote:
Octavious wrote:Everything I’m watching has the dems taking the house and losing ground in the Senate. That’s pretty much what was expected no? I had no grand delusions that they would take the Senate.
They're losing Florida. But Beto is looking pretty fucking good. He running up numbers in Houston Austin and Dallas and is suspected to really run up numbers in El paso. Which closes an hour later than the rest of the state.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

We’d rather share the time zone with the Florida panhandle than El Paso.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:14 pm

Cruz losing would have been cool. Oh well.

Grifman · Post by **Grifman** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:15 pm

Little Raven wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:11 pm I'm pulling for him, but Beto isn't looking good.

Still, he ran a hell of a race in a solid red state.

Beto May have blown it. There were Republicans wanting an excuse not to vote for Cruz.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story ... ion-222188

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:19 pm

So many close races. I thought I saw one network saying Claire McCaskill was out, but now I see only 37% in. WTH

Also, it’s funny switching between networks, some saying with absolute authority “NO BLUE WAVE” and others “This is the blue wave that was predicted”. LOL

gilraen · Post by **gilraen** » Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:23 pm

Not really the blue wave we were hoping for but Dems are officially called to take control of the House now.