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Census 2020

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El Guapo
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Re: Census 2020

Post by El Guapo » Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:56 pm

malchior wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:57 am
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:50 am
malchior wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:39 am
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:35 am
Again, can't say for sure, but the odds of it holding up are low.
The question isn't that the executive order holds up - it is that they are making noise that they should do it anyway no matter what.
Right, but we already know that Trump is lawless. And if Trump does something lawless and the courts react appropriately, and it doesn't happen, then there's no real crisis.
Yeah agreed - *if* it doesn't happen is the crux. My concern is based on the DOJ reaction to the ruling and Barr's supposed affinity for expansive Presidential power. Let's say they lose and go ahead - what stops them? We have a glimpse that the DOJ lawyers already ejected from the case and they're just replacing them. It sure looks like we are in uncharted territory here.
That's always a risk with Trump - that he'll at some point decide to openly defy the courts. The response to that would be some mix of judicial contempt, congressional contempt, denial of appropriations, and the like. If the Supreme Court issued a decision invalidating an executive order and they still go ahead, I would think it would be pretty easy to convince a judge to find the relevant administration people in contempt. And honestly in some ways that's the best case scenario for a crisis - clear defiance of a court order.

Also would be a great time to impeach Trump.

malchior
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Re: Census 2020

Post by malchior » Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:36 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:56 pm
That's always a risk with Trump - that he'll at some point decide to openly defy the courts. The response to that would be some mix of judicial contempt, congressional contempt, denial of appropriations, and the like.
This all presumes a normal state of affairs. My concern is that if they are openly defying the Supreme Court I expect that all of the above will not matter too much. Besides, Trump has already thumbed his nose at it all already.
If the Supreme Court issued a decision invalidating an executive order and they still go ahead, I would think it would be pretty easy to convince a judge to find the relevant administration people in contempt. And honestly in some ways that's the best case scenario for a crisis - clear defiance of a court order.
As above - but more pointed - what good will it do?
Also would be a great time to impeach Trump.
It already is a great time. Yet here we are trudging ever on to the next failure gate.

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El Guapo
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Re: Census 2020

Post by El Guapo » Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:45 pm

malchior wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:36 pm
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:56 pm
That's always a risk with Trump - that he'll at some point decide to openly defy the courts. The response to that would be some mix of judicial contempt, congressional contempt, denial of appropriations, and the like.
This all presumes a normal state of affairs. My concern is that if they are openly defying the Supreme Court I expect that all of the above will not matter too much. Besides, Trump has already thumbed his nose at it all already.
If the Supreme Court issued a decision invalidating an executive order and they still go ahead, I would think it would be pretty easy to convince a judge to find the relevant administration people in contempt. And honestly in some ways that's the best case scenario for a crisis - clear defiance of a court order.
As above - but more pointed - what good will it do?
Also would be a great time to impeach Trump.
It already is a great time. Yet here we are trudging ever on to the next failure gate.
Contempt would be a BFD because it would mean that people would start going to jail if nothing changed, possibly including people like Wilbur Ross. Odds are Ross would rather reverse the census decision than going to jail. If he resigns or is fired, then the acting person next in line faces the same "reverse course or go to jail" pressure. This would be a weird hill for Trump to decide to die on, but there would be a LOT of pressure that would be brought to bear on this.

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Re: Census 2020

Post by Pyperkub » Mon Jul 08, 2019 2:33 pm

El Guapo wrote:
malchior wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:36 pm
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 12:56 pm
That's always a risk with Trump - that he'll at some point decide to openly defy the courts. The response to that would be some mix of judicial contempt, congressional contempt, denial of appropriations, and the like.
This all presumes a normal state of affairs. My concern is that if they are openly defying the Supreme Court I expect that all of the above will not matter too much. Besides, Trump has already thumbed his nose at it all already.
If the Supreme Court issued a decision invalidating an executive order and they still go ahead, I would think it would be pretty easy to convince a judge to find the relevant administration people in contempt. And honestly in some ways that's the best case scenario for a crisis - clear defiance of a court order.
As above - but more pointed - what good will it do?
Also would be a great time to impeach Trump.
It already is a great time. Yet here we are trudging ever on to the next failure gate.
Contempt would be a BFD because it would mean that people would start going to jail if nothing changed, possibly including people like Wilbur Ross. Odds are Ross would rather reverse the census decision than going to jail. If he resigns or is fired, then the acting person next in line faces the same "reverse course or go to jail" pressure. This would be a weird hill for Trump to decide to die on, but there would be a LOT of pressure that would be brought to bear on this.
IMHO, Trump will pardon them for including it.
There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

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Re: Census 2020

Post by GungHo » Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:09 pm

If SCOTUS finds you in contempt, who actually arrests you? Wouldn't it be someone from the Executive branch? And couldn't trump simply order them not to arrest that person? Wouldn't they be a 'legal order' as Barr sees it, given his ideas about unlimited presidential powers?

Or was that kind of the point malachior was already making and I just failed my reading comprehension saving throw?
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Re: Census 2020

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:14 pm

Marshal of the United States Supreme Court
The Marshal of the United States Supreme Court heads the United States Supreme Court Police, a security police service answerable to the court itself rather than to the president or attorney general. It handles security for the Supreme Court building and for the justices personally.
...
(c) The marshal shall:
...
(2) Serve and execute all process and orders issued by the Court or a member thereof;

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Re: Census 2020

Post by malchior » Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:10 pm

GungHo wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:09 pm
Or was that kind of the point malachior was already making and I just failed my reading comprehension saving throw?
This is essentially my point. The normal mechanisms having failed we have the Marshal of the Supreme Court, the House jail, etc. None of which are truly practical remedies and I have strong doubts the system will do anything but continue to shrug at him. However, at this point it is just conjecture because we are not there yet.

I just worry about it because every day is a new attack on the rule of law and people are just assuming the system will kick in and work. Hopefully that happens but this administration is loaded with unconfirmed lackeys and the DOJ appears compromised. It is troubling. Like I said this is uncharted water.

Edit: And Barr basically just said he thought that SCOTUS got it wrong and made noise about clarifying it with the court. However he also seemingly acknowledged the plan is full steam ahead. The story indicates it will be a EO. I'd hazard a guess it probably will be paired with some bullshit DOJ memo.
Let's see what happens...

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Re: Census 2020

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:46 pm

WaPo
The legal battle over the Trump administration’s efforts to put a citizenship question on the 2020 Census further escalated on Monday as the plaintiffs argued that Justice Department attorneys should not be allowed to withdraw from the case because they have not given “satisfactory reasons” for seeking to do so.

The Trump administration has not demonstrated that the withdrawals “will not cause further disruption, particularly in light of the history of this case and the well-documented need for expeditious resolution,” attorneys for those challenging the citizenship question said in a court filing in New York.
...
In asking to withdraw the attorneys from the case, the department argued that it did not expect the move would cause a “disruption.” But those suing said the department should articulate more clear reasons for the attorneys’ attempted withdrawal, arguing that government lawyers had previously made “rapidly shifting representations” to the court.

They also requested the judge “require any attorneys whose representations or conduct is at issue in the pending or forthcoming motions to attend any hearings on these motions or otherwise remain available to the Court and the parties to ensure the full and fair disposition of the pending motions.”

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Re: Census 2020

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue Jul 09, 2019 3:53 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:14 pm
Marshal of the United States Supreme Court
The Marshal of the United States Supreme Court heads the United States Supreme Court Police, a security police service answerable to the court itself rather than to the president or attorney general. It handles security for the Supreme Court building and for the justices personally.
...
(c) The marshal shall:
...
(2) Serve and execute all process and orders issued by the Court or a member thereof;
I'm pretty sure that is limited to process and orders within the actual supreme Court building(s). They don't execute arrests.
The Marshal and the Supreme Court Police are authorized by 40 U.S.C. § 6121 to police the Supreme Court Building and protect the Justices, employees of the Court, and visitors to the Court.
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Pyperkub
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Re: Census 2020

Post by Pyperkub » Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:33 pm

New Lawyers for DoJ? Not so fast sayeth the Judge...
The DOJ’s motion to withdraw certain attorneys is “patently insufficient,” Furman said in a scorching 3-page ruling.
There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

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Re: Census 2020

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:44 pm

Nice.

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Re: Census 2020

Post by Pyperkub » Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:34 pm

Mr Fed chimes in:
This is:
1. Not Normal
2. Notably Angry Even For A Federal Judge
3. Professionally Humiliating
4. Not A Good Sign For the Government's Case
There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

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Re: Census 2020

Post by pr0ner » Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:15 am

Hodor.

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Grifman
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Re: Census 2020

Post by Grifman » Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:50 am

"John Marshall has made his decision; now let him enforce it.

https://sustainatlanta.com/2015/04/02/r ... okee-land/

The Supreme Court has no way of enforcing any decision - it only has moral authority. As the article notes:
In the end, Andrew Jackson’s story reveals the ease at which the foundation of our governmental structure can be eroded. One person, in a powerful position, deciding to challenge the political and legal norms that we’ve come to rely on can have a profoundly negative impact on the integrity of our legal and political system.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton

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Re: Census 2020

Post by Grifman » Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:52 am

pr0ner wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:15 am
I don't really see how an executive order solves the problem for them at all, but I guess we will see what their justification is.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton

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Re: Census 2020

Post by LordMortis » Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:08 am

Grifman wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:52 am
pr0ner wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:15 am
I don't really see how an executive order solves the problem for them at all, but I guess we will see what their justification is.

Because they tried float the idea of putting tariffs on the census but they just wouldn't fly and this is the next hammer in the toolbag?

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Re: Census 2020

Post by The Meal » Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:13 am

The idea is to plaster this all over the news. Whether or not the census forms actually get printed with this question turns out to be irrelevant as long as he suppresses form returns from the intended areas of the US. Even without a citizenship question, do you really think immigrants and non-citizens are going to feel comfortable with returning their census forms after all this noise?

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Re: Census 2020

Post by Grifman » Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:20 am

The Meal wrote:
Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:13 am
The idea is to plaster this all over the news. Whether or not the census forms actually get printed with this question turns out to be irrelevant as long as he suppresses form returns from the intended areas of the US. Even without a citizenship question, do you really think immigrants and non-citizens are going to feel comfortable with returning their census forms after all this noise?
That's true - I've thought the same thing. All of the discussion about the census question has already served it's purpose - completion of the forms will already be significantly suppressed.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton

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Re: Census 2020

Post by naednek » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:35 pm

So was there an executive order today or even a press announcement? News said he was going to be talking with media at noon eastern, and haven't' heard anything
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malchior
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Re: Census 2020

Post by malchior » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:44 pm

This is shades of several other "big" announcements by Trump that also toed the line of constitutional crisis. Someone is working this fucking moron over at the moment to convince him to do something less drastic. Will they succeed? You never know until his addled brain latches onto some other pointless fight.

Edit: Barr is talking now - they are backing down. He essentially said 'we would win but don't have time to get it done considering the complexity of the cases in front of them and the census timeline'. Whatever. Anyway, what they are doing is instead 'collecting more data' to figure out the illegal population and it sounds like they plan to challenge their inclusion in the apportionment process. So rule of law survives to live another day and they still continue to feed red meat to the base.

As an aside, Barr praised the President for his 'effective action' vis a vis the alternate data collection path and also threw out a nicely phrased #fakenews call out. He essentially was praising the strategy he likely pitched but gave the credit to Trump. The dude is legit scary.

Bonus edit: Gorka throws a fit and gets in the face of a reporter to yell at him while the #MAGA devoted cheer him on...in the Rose garden. Good grief.

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Re: Census 2020

Post by malchior » Mon Jul 15, 2019 1:46 pm

FWIW word is out that Trump wants to fire Ross over the census debacle. Hilarious.

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Re: Census 2020

Post by GungHo » Tue Jul 16, 2019 1:26 am

malchior wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 1:46 pm
FWIW word is out that Trump wants to fire Ross over the census debacle. Hilarious.
I wonder how many of these lackeys have to have their reputations destroyed by trying to do trump's bidding, only to be fired for it, before trump simply can't get literally anyone to work for him. I know there's been a chronic failure to fill positions across the executive since he took over, and there are of course the half dozen or so 'acting' secretaries which in any normal time would raise red flags. But at what point do those people still in the administration say 'F this'?
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Re: Census 2020

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Jul 16, 2019 11:03 am

NPR
You've got to spend money to make money. But that's not the way Texas, and a handful of other states, are looking at the 2020 census. Officials in Texas have decided not to spend any money or make statewide plans for the census, despite the fact that the state experienced massive population growth in the past decade.

With federal dollars at risk, the state's major cities, business leaders and even nonprofits say they are being forced to step in instead.

Across the country, states are spending millions on making sure they get a better head count of their residents. For example, California officials announced they are investing as much as $154 million in the 2020 census.

But not all states are making investments, or even coming up with statewide plans to improve the count.

This year, Texas lawmakers failed to pass legislation that would have created a statewide effort aimed at making sure all Texans are counted. Measures that would have ensured millions of dollars in funding for the census in Texas also failed.
...
In the absence of state action, though, local officials in Texas say it's up to them now to make sure people are getting counted.

"So much in the state of Texas relies on local government stepping up," says Bruce Elfant, the tax assessor and voter registrar for Travis County here in Austin.

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Re: Census 2020

Post by Pyperkub » Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:27 pm

Citizenship Question perma-banned:
A New York federal judge has issued an order definitively blocking the Trump administration from adding a citizenship question to the 2020 census in any form, despite the administration's insistence it has abandoned plans to add a question on the census.
Judge Jesse Furman, in his two-page order, also indicated the seriousness with which the court will continue to monitor this controversial issue, saying,"The Court will retain jurisdiction in this case to enforce the terms of this Order until the 2020 census results are processed and sent to the President by December 31, 2020."
There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

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Re: Census 2020

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:19 pm

CNN
Chief Justice John Roberts cast the deciding vote against President Donald Trump's attempt to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census, but only after changing his position behind the scenes, sources familiar with the private Supreme Court deliberations tell CNN.
...
For the most part, Roberts' opinion in the census case laid out why Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross had significant latitude to add a new question. He was joined by his four conservative brethren on that point. But then the chief justice swerved, and joined by the four liberal justices, said Ross' justification for the citizenship question, tied to enforcing the Voting Rights Act, was contrived.

After the justices heard arguments in late April, Roberts was ready to rule for Ross and the administration. But sometime in the weeks that followed, sources said, Roberts began to waver. He began to believe that Ross' rationale for the citizenship question had been invented, and that, despite the deference he would normally give an executive branch official, Ross' claim had to matter in the court's final judgment, which Roberts announced on June 27.
...
Roberts said judges should broadly defer to the administration as it devises the census form.

Provided the justification is truthful, that is.

To accept Ross' explanation grounded in the Voting Rights Act, the chief justice suggested in the final pages of his opinion, would essentially allow administration officials to dupe judges. Roberts said there was "a significant mismatch between the decision the Secretary made and the rationale he provided."

Declared Roberts, quoting the late US Appeals Court Judge Henry Friendly, for whom he once worked, "Our review is deferential, but we are 'not required to exhibit a naivete from which ordinary citizens are free.'"

The four other conservative justices, dissenting on this part of the ruling, believed Furman had wrongly probed Ross' rationale. Justice Clarence Thomas, joined by Justices Neil Gorsuch and Kavanaugh in an opinion, expressed suspicions of Furman's own motives as he had detailed evidence of pretext against Ross.

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Re: Census 2020

Post by Zarathud » Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:32 pm

It’s a shame the other conservative judges are so willfully blind to their decisions.
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Re: Census 2020

Post by Isgrimnur » Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:00 pm

“It’s okay to lie to us if you can make us almost believe it.”

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