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Flash poll: Mayday edition

For discussion of religion and politics

Moderators: LawBeefaroni, $iljanus

It's primary day! These candidates are on your ballot

Biden
15
22%
Sanders
2
3%
Warren
23
34%
Buttigieg
16
24%
O’Rourke
2
3%
Harris
7
10%
Trump
2
3%
Weld
1
1%
 
Total votes: 68

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Alefroth
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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Alefroth » Wed May 01, 2019 7:31 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2019 4:33 pm
pr0ner wrote:
Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:11 pm
Need more data on climate change policies before making a decision.
You are dancing around the May poll!
Since no one else is going to, bahahaha.

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by pr0ner » Wed May 01, 2019 9:16 pm

I went with Weld for this poll.
Hodor.

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by YellowKing » Wed May 01, 2019 10:22 pm

In thinking about it today, the other reason I feel myself turning towards Biden is that I think he could capture the "that's the kinda guy I could have a beer with" vote. Those folks who voted for Trump because he "talks like one of us," could find that same appeal in Biden. And yes I know it's not right, but none of those guys are going to have a beer with Elizabeth Warren or Kamala Harris.

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Kraken » Wed May 01, 2019 10:28 pm

I'd rather have a beer with Warren. She sometimes goes to a pub that I sometimes go to in the Berkshires, so maybe someday I will. But I'm not one of the guys you're talking about.

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by malchior » Thu May 02, 2019 9:45 am

Should we have all 21...er..22 as of this morning...Democratic candidates in this poll? Should we have a poll about how many will pile in? I'm thinking 1 per state seems like a good number of candidates.

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El Guapo
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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by El Guapo » Thu May 02, 2019 10:19 am

malchior wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 9:45 am
Should we have all 21...er..22 as of this morning...Democratic candidates in this poll? Should we have a poll about how many will pile in? I'm thinking 1 per state seems like a good number of candidates.
Well, ideally I would think it would be best to give people the option to add another choice.

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by ImLawBoy » Thu May 02, 2019 10:25 am

I think you can only do 10 options on polls.
We had subs. It was crazy

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by El Guapo » Thu May 02, 2019 10:28 am

ImLawBoy wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 10:25 am
I think you can only do 10 options on polls.
Who is to blame for this??

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by ImLawBoy » Thu May 02, 2019 10:29 am

Obviously Fishpants. Get him!
We had subs. It was crazy

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El Guapo
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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by El Guapo » Thu May 02, 2019 10:34 am

ImLawBoy wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 10:29 am
Obviously Fishpants. Get him!
#ThrowTheBumsOut

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by pr0ner » Thu May 02, 2019 11:23 am

El Guapo wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 10:19 am
malchior wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 9:45 am
Should we have all 21...er..22 as of this morning...Democratic candidates in this poll? Should we have a poll about how many will pile in? I'm thinking 1 per state seems like a good number of candidates.
Well, ideally I would think it would be best to give people the option to add another choice.
How many of those other choices legitimately have a chance, though?
Hodor.

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Alefroth
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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Alefroth » Thu May 02, 2019 11:39 am

pr0ner wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 11:23 am
El Guapo wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 10:19 am
malchior wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 9:45 am
Should we have all 21...er..22 as of this morning...Democratic candidates in this poll? Should we have a poll about how many will pile in? I'm thinking 1 per state seems like a good number of candidates.
Well, ideally I would think it would be best to give people the option to add another choice.
How many of those other choices legitimately have a chance, though?
Shouldn't the poll determine that, not Kraken?

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Jaymann » Thu May 02, 2019 11:42 am

Alefroth wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 11:39 am
pr0ner wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 11:23 am
El Guapo wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 10:19 am
malchior wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 9:45 am
Should we have all 21...er..22 as of this morning...Democratic candidates in this poll? Should we have a poll about how many will pile in? I'm thinking 1 per state seems like a good number of candidates.
Well, ideally I would think it would be best to give people the option to add another choice.
How many of those other choices legitimately have a chance, though?
Shouldn't the poll determine that, not Kraken?
Kraken is trying to suppress the field in case he decides to run.
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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by LawBeefaroni » Thu May 02, 2019 12:46 pm

YellowKing wrote:
Wed May 01, 2019 10:22 pm
In thinking about it today, the other reason I feel myself turning towards Biden is that I think he could capture the "that's the kinda guy I could have a beer with" vote. Those folks who voted for Trump because he "talks like one of us," could find that same appeal in Biden. And yes I know it's not right, but none of those guys are going to have a beer with Elizabeth Warren or Kamala Harris.
The "a guy I could have a beer with" is just "I'm voting for him and either I cannot justify it rationally or it is based on something I'd rather not say out loud." People who think they "could have beer with Trump" would never want to have a beer with Biden.

People walk into bars and have beers with total strangers all the time. It's not a reason to vote for someone.


Also, if Biden and Trump were in a bar with 95% of Americans, they'd pick a table for two and sit down together.
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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Defiant » Thu May 02, 2019 1:15 pm

malchior wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 9:45 am
I'm thinking 1 per state seems like a good number of candidates.
But which state does Trump go in? State of Denial or State of Decay?

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by em2nought » Thu May 02, 2019 1:47 pm

pr0ner wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 11:23 am
El Guapo wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 10:19 am
malchior wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 9:45 am
Should we have all 21...er..22 as of this morning...Democratic candidates in this poll? Should we have a poll about how many will pile in? I'm thinking 1 per state seems like a good number of candidates.
Well, ideally I would think it would be best to give people the option to add another choice.
How many of those other choices legitimately have a chance, though?
:wink:
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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Kraken » Thu May 02, 2019 2:33 pm

Jaymann wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 11:42 am
Alefroth wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 11:39 am
pr0ner wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 11:23 am
El Guapo wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 10:19 am
malchior wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 9:45 am
Should we have all 21...er..22 as of this morning...Democratic candidates in this poll? Should we have a poll about how many will pile in? I'm thinking 1 per state seems like a good number of candidates.
Well, ideally I would think it would be best to give people the option to add another choice.
How many of those other choices legitimately have a chance, though?
Shouldn't the poll determine that, not Kraken?
Kraken is trying to suppress the field in case he decides to run.
:lol:

I included only the leaders-of-the-moment according to national polling -- the premise being "this would be your ballot if the primary were held today".

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by LordMortis » Thu May 02, 2019 2:41 pm

pr0ner wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 11:23 am
How many of those other choices legitimately have a chance, though?
Still hoping for Merkley. I'm feeling a bit disappointed he hasn't made the move.

Edit:

And now you made me look and my heart is broken

March 5th

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/ ... 20-1203398
Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley will not seek the Democratic Party's 2020 presidential nomination.

The Oregon Democrat shut down presidential speculation in a video released Tuesday morning after teasing a “major” announcement late Monday night about his plans for next year's elections. Instead of a White House bid, Merkley announced he will run for reelection to his Senate seat, citing the need for “strong leadership” in the Senate as well as the White House.
Now that being the case, I dunno. I'm not informed enough but I'd like to know more about Beto, so I'll be his loan supporter but I sure as heck reserve the right to back out from that support.
Last edited by LordMortis on Thu May 02, 2019 2:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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El Guapo
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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by El Guapo » Thu May 02, 2019 2:47 pm

pr0ner wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 11:23 am
How many of those other choices legitimately have a chance, though?
Barring a real shock, the only potential candidate out there who could shake up the field in a major way is Stacey Abrams. She's hinted at running a few times, and recently said that she's not going to run for Senate in 2020, which leaves her open to a run. IIRC in the polls she's been included in she's polling ~ 5%, which isn't Bidenesque but is pretty good for a noncandidate without the branding that a Biden or a Sanders has.

Anyway, I think she's the only candidate who hasn't declared but who would have at least an outside shot at winning.

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Jaymann » Thu May 02, 2019 3:17 pm

LordMortis wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 2:41 pm
pr0ner wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 11:23 am
How many of those other choices legitimately have a chance, though?


Now that being the case, I dunno. I'm not informed enough but I'd like to know more about Beto, so I'll be his loan supporter but I sure as heck reserve the right to back out from that support.
He would probably prefer a straight contribution.
Jaymann
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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Holman » Thu May 02, 2019 6:03 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 2:47 pm
pr0ner wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 11:23 am
How many of those other choices legitimately have a chance, though?
Barring a real shock, the only potential candidate out there who could shake up the field in a major way is Stacey Abrams. She's hinted at running a few times, and recently said that she's not going to run for Senate in 2020, which leaves her open to a run. IIRC in the polls she's been included in she's polling ~ 5%, which isn't Bidenesque but is pretty good for a noncandidate without the branding that a Biden or a Sanders has.

Anyway, I think she's the only candidate who hasn't declared but who would have at least an outside shot at winning.
I posted somewhere else, but I really wish she would run for the senate. If 2020 throws Trump out, she could flip that Georgia seat, and that's hugely important.

I expect that she's being courted as almost everyone's VP, but VP is nothing if we don't have the senate.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by GungHo » Thu May 02, 2019 11:44 pm

I went with Beto mostly cuz he's from Texas...and I appreciate his effort in trying to unseat Cruz. But I honestly don't care. Anyone not named trump will suffice.
OR
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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Kurth » Fri May 03, 2019 1:59 am

LawBeefaroni wrote:
Thu May 02, 2019 12:46 pm
The "a guy I could have a beer with" is just "I'm voting for him and either I cannot justify it rationally or it is based on something I'd rather not say out loud." People who think they "could have beer with Trump" would never want to have a beer with Biden.

People walk into bars and have beers with total strangers all the time. It's not a reason to vote for someone.


Also, if Biden and Trump were in a bar with 95% of Americans, they'd pick a table for two and sit down together.
I was with you, right up until that last sentence. No. F’ing. Way.

Biden would not want to have a beer with Trump. Different birds entirely.
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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Kraken » Fri May 03, 2019 2:17 am

Trump doesn't drink.

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by coopasonic » Fri May 03, 2019 12:40 pm

Kraken wrote:
Fri May 03, 2019 2:17 am
Trump doesn't drink.

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(Attributed to everybody who ever said anything.)
As a man that doesn't drink, that's good advice.
-Coop

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by em2nought » Fri May 03, 2019 1:38 pm

Never trust anyone. :wink:

I heard this somewhere the other day, and thought it was pretty good.
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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Unagi » Sat May 04, 2019 9:32 pm

I kinda want to move my vote to Harris (from Pete). I like how she has attacked Trump. (not sure if Pete would have)

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Unagi » Sat May 04, 2019 9:39 pm

Maybe we should all register Rep and vote for Weld (whom I will say, I am so happy exists.) in the Primaries.

Bottom line is that I bet most everyone (D) will vote for ANYONE not Trump, however anyone Independent and/or turned-off Republican will be looking for something specific.

I feel like we probably should be nominating the candidate that is most tolerable by the Dems (frankly, anyone) , but someone a little appealing to the old-school GOP.

I am not sure that's Biden or Warren, or any of them.... so I'm not sure I want to say that's to goal of our nomination. I some level Biden is that guy, but for a lot of GOP voters he is Absolutely NOT that guy.

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Holman » Sat May 04, 2019 9:42 pm

I'm concerned about the degree to which Pete seems to want to avoid offending anyone, Deplorables included.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Unagi » Sat May 04, 2019 9:56 pm

Holman wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:42 pm
I'm concerned about the degree to which Pete seems to want to avoid offending anyone, Deplorables included.
While that is one of the qualities I like about him - - I hear ya.

Biden doesn't want to offend 'old school Republicans'.
Pete doesn't want to offend "rural Americans".


Being mayor of South Bend Indiana does put him in some touch with "rural American's".
However, I will say that the idea of 2 males being 'the first family', is going to be massively hard for this coutry to get over and maybe hard for Pete to overcome.

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by GreenGoo » Sat May 04, 2019 10:37 pm

Drumpf and his plus one are making the transition easier, as Melania clearly wants nothing to do with the first lady role and has been a mostly absentee first lady with drumpf's blessing. Their kid is entirely MIA as far as first family events and media attention is concerned. With no first family at all, America is nudged slightly towards accepting a president and first man, imo.

This might be the first president in my lifetime where their family is irrelevant, and literally everyone accepts that as a reasonable norm.

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Holman » Sat May 04, 2019 10:51 pm

Unagi wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:56 pm
Holman wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:42 pm
I'm concerned about the degree to which Pete seems to want to avoid offending anyone, Deplorables included.
While that is one of the qualities I like about him - - I hear ya.

Biden doesn't want to offend 'old school Republicans'.
Pete doesn't want to offend "rural Americans".


Being mayor of South Bend Indiana does put him in some touch with "rural American's".
However, I will say that the idea of 2 males being 'the first family', is going to be massively hard for this coutry to get over and maybe hard for Pete to overcome.
I think the defining issue with Pete B's campaign is this:

He's running as a gay liberal Democrat from the Midwest, presenting his success as mayor of South Bend Indiana as proof of his ability to reach Trump voters.

The problem is that the Midwest (and Trump voters) don't actually work like that. South Bend is a liberal anomaly in the region. They haven't elected a Republican mayor since 1972, and even then this didn't reflect the voter shift of the Goldwater-Nixon-Reagan Southern Strategy. Pete B's mayorality is a triumph of South Bend's progressive openness, but meanwhile the rest of the state has gone Red over and over.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by rittchard » Mon May 06, 2019 6:22 pm

Holman wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 10:51 pm
Unagi wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:56 pm
Holman wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:42 pm
I'm concerned about the degree to which Pete seems to want to avoid offending anyone, Deplorables included.
While that is one of the qualities I like about him - - I hear ya.

Biden doesn't want to offend 'old school Republicans'.
Pete doesn't want to offend "rural Americans".


Being mayor of South Bend Indiana does put him in some touch with "rural American's".
However, I will say that the idea of 2 males being 'the first family', is going to be massively hard for this coutry to get over and maybe hard for Pete to overcome.
I think the defining issue with Pete B's campaign is this:

He's running as a gay liberal Democrat from the Midwest, presenting his success as mayor of South Bend Indiana as proof of his ability to reach Trump voters.

The problem is that the Midwest (and Trump voters) don't actually work like that. South Bend is a liberal anomaly in the region. They haven't elected a Republican mayor since 1972, and even then this didn't reflect the voter shift of the Goldwater-Nixon-Reagan Southern Strategy. Pete B's mayorality is a triumph of South Bend's progressive openness, but meanwhile the rest of the state has gone Red over and over.
I feel like the categories that he's "running as" will matter less and less as his campaign continues. What will matter instead is if/how he connects with people and whether he strikes a chord in them and presents a platform that is attractive to as many people as possible. I just watched one of his latest stops and there was just about nothing about his being gay, and nothing about South Bend or his experience. All the questions and discussion were on the issues people cared about, and about how to beat Trump.

It's interesting the comment about not offending deplorables. I would argue his very existence is offensive to the "deplorable" section, so he really doesn't need to exasperate things further. A big part of his appeal is he is running on a positive message of hope for the future of the country; antagonizing people doesn't really fit in with that model.

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Drazzil » Sun May 26, 2019 10:04 pm

rittchard wrote:
Mon May 06, 2019 6:22 pm
Holman wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 10:51 pm
Unagi wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:56 pm
Holman wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:42 pm
I'm concerned about the degree to which Pete seems to want to avoid offending anyone, Deplorables included.
While that is one of the qualities I like about him - - I hear ya.

Biden doesn't want to offend 'old school Republicans'.
Pete doesn't want to offend "rural Americans".


Being mayor of South Bend Indiana does put him in some touch with "rural American's".
However, I will say that the idea of 2 males being 'the first family', is going to be massively hard for this coutry to get over and maybe hard for Pete to overcome.
I think the defining issue with Pete B's campaign is this:

He's running as a gay liberal Democrat from the Midwest, presenting his success as mayor of South Bend Indiana as proof of his ability to reach Trump voters.

The problem is that the Midwest (and Trump voters) don't actually work like that. South Bend is a liberal anomaly in the region. They haven't elected a Republican mayor since 1972, and even then this didn't reflect the voter shift of the Goldwater-Nixon-Reagan Southern Strategy. Pete B's mayorality is a triumph of South Bend's progressive openness, but meanwhile the rest of the state has gone Red over and over.
I feel like the categories that he's "running as" will matter less and less as his campaign continues. What will matter instead is if/how he connects with people and whether he strikes a chord in them and presents a platform that is attractive to as many people as possible. I just watched one of his latest stops and there was just about nothing about his being gay, and nothing about South Bend or his experience. All the questions and discussion were on the issues people cared about, and about how to beat Trump.

It's interesting the comment about not offending deplorables. I would argue his very existence is offensive to the "deplorable" section, so he really doesn't need to exasperate things further. A big part of his appeal is he is running on a positive message of hope for the future of the country; antagonizing people doesn't really fit in with that model.
We already tried "Hope" and "change" once. Didn't work. I'd rather have someone who will take the fight to the other side, then someone who tries to "build consensus" We're past that.

I want Lyndon Johnson. He's someone who would'nt be afraid to fight dirty and call his opponent a pigf_cker if he needs to.
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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Apollo » Sun May 26, 2019 10:29 pm

Unagi wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:56 pm
...Biden doesn't want to offend 'old school Republicans'.
Pete doesn't want to offend "rural Americans"...
These guys understand that, in order to win a national election, they are going to need to win over at least some white, working-class voters. And I think that is a wise strategy. It worries me that so many young progressives seem to want to ignore this segment of the population. While that may work in your dark blue home district, that's not a wise approach to winning national elections.

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Unagi » Mon May 27, 2019 9:03 am

Oh, I agree that it's pragmatic.

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by LawBeefaroni » Tue May 28, 2019 11:11 am

Holman wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 10:51 pm
Unagi wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:56 pm
Holman wrote:
Sat May 04, 2019 9:42 pm
I'm concerned about the degree to which Pete seems to want to avoid offending anyone, Deplorables included.
While that is one of the qualities I like about him - - I hear ya.

Biden doesn't want to offend 'old school Republicans'.
Pete doesn't want to offend "rural Americans".


Being mayor of South Bend Indiana does put him in some touch with "rural American's".
However, I will say that the idea of 2 males being 'the first family', is going to be massively hard for this coutry to get over and maybe hard for Pete to overcome.
I think the defining issue with Pete B's campaign is this:

He's running as a gay liberal Democrat from the Midwest, presenting his success as mayor of South Bend Indiana as proof of his ability to reach Trump voters.

The problem is that the Midwest (and Trump voters) don't actually work like that. South Bend is a liberal anomaly in the region. They haven't elected a Republican mayor since 1972, and even then this didn't reflect the voter shift of the Goldwater-Nixon-Reagan Southern Strategy. Pete B's mayorality is a triumph of South Bend's progressive openness, but meanwhile the rest of the state has gone Red over and over.
This is true about South Bend.

South Bend may be conseravtive by Midwest college town standards (Madison, Ann Arbor, etc., even Columbus) but for Indiana and the rest of the "rural Midwest" it's just another liberal college town. That it has a gay Democrat mayor isn't overly surprising other then the fact that Notre Dame is a Catholic university. But it's still a University.
South Bend and environs (Michiana) are also increasingly the playground for Chicago residents with their "rural" retreats or early retirement second/third homes.

The further south you go in Indiana and Illinois, or north in Michigan, the more you get the real rural Midwest and its accompanying potential support for Trump over anyone just because they're the mayor of a Midwestern university town.

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Isgrimnur
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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue May 28, 2019 11:27 am

Blue South Dakota Counties:

Oglala Lakota - 94% Native American
Todd - 88% Native American
Clay - University of South Dakota
Buffalo - 84% Native American
Dewey - 75% Native American

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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Drazzil » Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:36 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:
Tue May 28, 2019 11:27 am
Blue South Dakota Counties:

Oglala Lakota - 94% Native American
Todd - 88% Native American
Clay - University of South Dakota
Buffalo - 84% Native American
Dewey - 75% Native American
Hey here's an easy one: Are there any high level registered republican native americans serving in the house or the senate (no elizabeth warren jokes please ;). )
Daehawk wrote:Thats Drazzil's chair damnit.

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Isgrimnur
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Re: Flash poll: Mayday edition

Post by Isgrimnur » Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:42 am

Tom Cole and Markwayne Mullin, both from Oklahoma, are the only registered Native American congresspeople that are Republicans. The other two NAs are from Kansas and New Mexico, both Dems, both female.

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