Election 2019

[Alefroth]

Will Virginia flip the Statehouse?

Will Beshear beat Bevin?

[Alefroth]

Beshear just barely up-

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/ ... index.html

[Holman]

VA Senate already called for the Dems.

VA House looking pretty good.

KY Gov looking good for the Dem.

Shitty night for the GOP.

[Holman]

Democrat Andy Beshear wins the KY governor's race. (Trump won KY by 30 points in 2016.)

Fun fact: Mitch McConnell is even more unpopular in KY than incumbent Governor Bevin is...

[Holman]

It now seems certain that Dems will win the VA House as well.

With a blue House, Senate, and Governor, Virginia will be the last state required to pass the Equal Rights Amendment.

The ERA will be the 28th amendment to the US Constitution.

Section 1. Equality of rights under the law shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of sex.

Section 2. The Congress shall have the power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.

Section 3. This amendment shall take effect two years after the date of ratification.

[malchior]

VA Senate already called for the Dems.

VA House looking pretty good.

KY Gov looking good for the Dem.

Shitty night for the GOP.

Good hopefully this sends them the message that they live and die by Trump and they are dying now. Time to cut his ass lose.

[El Guapo]

It now seems certain that Dems will win the VA House as well.

With a blue House, Senate, and Governor, Virginia will be the last state required to pass the Equal Rights Amendment.

The ERA will be the 28th amendment to the US Constitution.

Section 1. Equality of rights under the law shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of sex.

Section 2. The Congress shall have the power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.

Section 3. This amendment shall take effect two years after the date of ratification.

It's a little bit more complicated than that.

Either Congress would need to remove the ratification deadline that it originally imposed (good luck getting McConnell on board with that), OR they would have to win a court battle saying that ratification deadlines are unconstitutional. Not sure the prospects of that, but doesn't sound like a slam dunk.

[Kraken]

We elected our town's second-ever mayor today. I had a hard time choosing between the two candidates because the main issue facing the town is affordable housing* and the zoning laws that govern how it gets built (or doesn't). You have to get deep into the weeds to understand the issue at all, never mind each candidate's take on it. In the course of trying to penetrate the nuances of zoning I began to suspect that candidate A was a Republican (parties don't appear on the ballot in local elections) because he's an anti-everything, hardcore NIMBY. Sure enough, just yesterday somebody outed him as a former registered R who has taken money from the party. I wasn't exactly FOR Candidate B, but now I was definitely against A.

So naturally, A squeaked it out by 140 votes out of 9,800 cast. I wonder if B will call for a recount.

*Housing is a huge issue throughout MA, and especially in greater Boston. Our economy stagnated last quarter due to labor shortages -- businesses can't expand or start up, and some are closing, for lack of workers. And the main reason they can't get workers is that young people can't afford to live here. And the main reason there's no affordable housing is zoning. We don't want high-density rental housing in our leafy single-family towns. Sadly, our new mayor wants to keep it that way. Yes, we need affordable housing...somewhere else.

[Alefroth]

It now seems certain that Dems will win the VA House as well.

With a blue House, Senate, and Governor, Virginia will be the last state required to pass the Equal Rights Amendment.

The ERA will be the 28th amendment to the US Constitution.

Section 1. Equality of rights under the law shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of sex.

Section 2. The Congress shall have the power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.

Section 3. This amendment shall take effect two years after the date of ratification.

It's a little bit more complicated than that.

Either Congress would need to remove the ratification deadline that it originally imposed (good luck getting McConnell on board with that), OR they would have to win a court battle saying that ratification deadlines are unconstitutional. Not sure the prospects of that, but doesn't sound like a slam dunk.

And there's also the matter of the states who claim they have rescinded their ratification.

[Jaymann]

Don't sweat it, we already have same sex bathrooms. Mission accomplished.

[malchior]

Naturally Trump is distancing himself from Bevin and Bevin is of course calling out *election fraud*. Clownshoes.

[pr0ner]

The idea that Bevin would have been blown out in the Governor's race in a red state without Trump's rally is literally insane.

[Holman]

It now seems certain that Dems will win the VA House as well.

With a blue House, Senate, and Governor, Virginia will be the last state required to pass the Equal Rights Amendment.

The ERA will be the 28th amendment to the US Constitution.

Section 1. Equality of rights under the law shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of sex.

Section 2. The Congress shall have the power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.

Section 3. This amendment shall take effect two years after the date of ratification.

It's a little bit more complicated than that.

Either Congress would need to remove the ratification deadline that it originally imposed (good luck getting McConnell on board with that), OR they would have to win a court battle saying that ratification deadlines are unconstitutional. Not sure the prospects of that, but doesn't sound like a slam dunk.

Point taken.

[Holman]

The idea that Bevin would have been blown out in the Governor's race in a red state without Trump's rally is literally insane.

[ImLawBoy]

I'm seeing a lot that we shouldn't read too much into the KY governor's race. Bevin was spectacularly unpopular, Beshear is the son of a former well liked governor, and at least one other statewide D office flipped to R (I think it was the attorney general, or whatever they call it in KY). While Trump backlash may have played a role, this was a bit of a perfect storm for the Ds in the governor's race.

[Holman]

I'm seeing a lot that we shouldn't read too much into the KY governor's race. Bevin was spectacularly unpopular, Beshear is the son of a former well liked governor, and at least one other statewide D office flipped to R (I think it was the attorney general, or whatever they call it in KY). While Trump backlash may have played a role, this was a bit of a perfect storm for the Ds in the governor's race.

Last night's win is probably not predictive of a whole lot, but it's worth remembering that Mitch McConnell is even less popular (in Kentucky!) than Bevin was. There's an opening there.

Plus, of course, now KY has a governor who is pro-choice, pro-voting rights, anti-racist, etc. And I believe the state legislature, while Red, lacks the votes to override his veto.

[LordMortis]

The idea that Bevin would have been blown out in the Governor's race in a red state without Trump's rally is literally insane.

Forget the Trump coming in to town part. I think she's on point for what's up and I am afraid. According to her the Gov had a 32% approval rating and lost by razor thin margin. Now change popular vote to electoral college where red votes are disproportionately represented in the presidential election due senatorial rep weight.

The good news for republicans is that 32% approval may very well be enough to retain the Senate and presidency.

[gilraen]

I'm seeing a lot that we shouldn't read too much into the KY governor's race. Bevin was spectacularly unpopular, Beshear is the son of a former well liked governor, and at least one other statewide D office flipped to R (I think it was the attorney general, or whatever they call it in KY). While Trump backlash may have played a role, this was a bit of a perfect storm for the Ds in the governor's race.

Sure, but if Beshear is an "anomaly"...and Doug Jones was an "anomaly"...and maybe some other democrat will be an anomaly, maybe we'll gather up enough anomalies to return to civilized society.

[pr0ner]

The idea that Bevin would have been blown out in the Governor's race in a red state without Trump's rally is literally insane.

Forget the Trump coming in to town part. I think she's on point for what's up and I am afraid. According to her the Gov had a 32% approval rating and lost by razor thin margin. Now change popular vote to electoral college where red votes are disproportionately represented in the presidential election due senatorial rep weight.

The good news for republicans is that 32% approval may very well be enough to retain the Senate and presidency.

The last polls showed Bevin up by 5 points prior to the election.

[Jaymann]

The idea that Bevin would have been blown out in the Governor's race in a red state without Trump's rally is literally insane.

Forget the Trump coming in to town part. I think she's on point for what's up and I am afraid. According to her the Gov had a 32% approval rating and lost by razor thin margin. Now change popular vote to electoral college where red votes are disproportionately represented in the presidential election due senatorial rep weight.

The good news for republicans is that 32% approval may very well be enough to retain the Senate and presidency.

The last polls showed Bevin up by 5 points prior to the election.

Thanks Trump!

[Holman]

Forget the Trump coming in to town part. I think she's on point for what's up and I am afraid. According to her the Gov had a 32% approval rating and lost by razor thin margin. Now change popular vote to electoral college where red votes are disproportionately represented in the presidential election due senatorial rep weight.

The good news for republicans is that 32% approval may very well be enough to retain the Senate and presidency.

What it shows me isn't that Trump can still win with high disapprovals. It shows that even in a deeply, deeply Red state, it's possible for a significant number of committed Republicans (ones who still voted for all the other GOPers on the ballot) to split their votes and reject a truly odious Republican at the top of the ticket.

If that can happen in Kentucky (which went Trump+30 in 2016), it can happen anywhere.

[Smoove_B]

If that can happen in Kentucky (which went Trump+30 in 2016), it can happen anywhere.

If you are a R senator in a state less red than Ky. you are in deep trouble

[TheMix]

What we need is an R speak out against Trump, get slammed on Twitter, and then win their seat easily. Maybe that would cause the mass exodus that we need.

[Defiant]

My understanding is that the Governor's race was different because the guy was very unpopular - other statewide races went to the Republicans. I'd be careful of not getting overconfident. (Also, Kentucky has had a lot of Democratic governor's in it's recent past, so it may be that they're more likely to vote D for governor than national government)

[LordMortis]

I hope ally'all are right. 2016 showed I have no compass for these things and the years since have shown me I don't know whose compass to look at. How many red federal legislators up in 2020 have less than 32% approval?

It does give a bit of hope at the POTUS level that purple will revert to blue but honestly, I'm not seeing the blue message that moves the voters beyond "not Trump" going out and I'm not sure "not Trump" is enough, even if it seems obvious that is should be. But again, my compass is useless.

[pr0ner]

Lolwut is this.

[Smoove_B]

Well, he is right about the KY Libertarian vote:

"We are always happy to split the vote in a way that causes delicious tears. Tonight there are plenty of delicious tears from Bevin supporters," the party said in a Facebook post.

...

"For the Bevin supporters, your tears are delicious."

I'm guessing this is just a trial balloon for what's going to happen in 2020, nationwide.

[stessier]

I don't understand what he's going on about where the Libertarian votes would have gone. They went to a specific candidate - what else matters?

[hepcat]

[Remus West]

I don't understand what he's going on about where the Libertarian votes would have gone. They went to a specific candidate - what else matters?

Actually I support his way of thinking. Jill Stein voters would have gone overwhelmingly for HRC in 2016 so we need to go back and revisit that election's "results" given our new perspective. Fire up the recount and lets declare the last two years a "mulligan". I mean someone had to have saved a copy before we went down this idiotic path. When do we get to quit/reload?

[Remus West]

Doesn't load for me.

[LordMortis]

Is it weird that I see that I think "What would Wonder Woman think about her and Bevin and Trump and..."

Doesn't load for me.

heh, it autoplayed for me, which firefox is supposed to stop.

[hepcat]

Here's a direct link to a mirror site:

https://cdn.tuckbot.tv/dsbb3u.mp4

In short, a drunk woman stormed the stage at the Bevin election party hall and announced he had won...

...he had not.

[ImLawBoy]

I'm seeing a lot that we shouldn't read too much into the KY governor's race. Bevin was spectacularly unpopular, Beshear is the son of a former well liked governor, and at least one other statewide D office flipped to R (I think it was the attorney general, or whatever they call it in KY). While Trump backlash may have played a role, this was a bit of a perfect storm for the Ds in the governor's race.

Last night's win is probably not predictive of a whole lot, but it's worth remembering that Mitch McConnell is even less popular (in Kentucky!) than Bevin was. There's an opening there.

Plus, of course, now KY has a governor who is pro-choice, pro-voting rights, anti-racist, etc. And I believe the state legislature, while Red, lacks the votes to override his veto.

Just read on 538 that KY only requires a simple majority to override a veto, which will largely limit Beshear's power to executive actions. I find that odd as it essentially reduces a veto to performance art.

[malchior]

That fits my recollection as well that the Governor is "weaker" in KY than in other states.

On another note, I think the interesting thing to takeaway after further thought is Trump has burned a bit of his political capital. What this race showed was that Trump had no upside or slightly negative impact on the turnout despite throwing one of his 'white power' rallies and focusing on this election. His support isn't necessarily all that valuable to move tight elections. That doesn't however mean that his ability to smear on Twitter is undermined...yet. However, I expect some GOP Senators have to weighing where he stands with the base.

[Kraken]

It does give a bit of hope at the POTUS level that purple will revert to blue but honestly, I'm not seeing the blue message that moves the voters beyond "not Trump" going out and I'm not sure "not Trump" is enough, even if it seems obvious that is should be. But again, my compass is useless.

TBH, I expect it to come down to the economy, as it so often does. If the recession begins while Trump's still in office, he'll be easy to beat. If we're still bumping along in positive territory he will be fine. He will almost surely surrender his trade war to ensure the latter outcome.

[gilraen]

What this race showed was that Trump had no upside or slightly negative impact on the turnout despite throwing one of his 'white power' rallies and focusing on this election.

Actually, if anything, Trump had a positive impact on the Democrat turnout in this election. Last time Kentucky voted for Bevin in 2015, the turnout was about 30%, and this time around, it was 42%. Democrats ultimately benefit from increased turnout, so if these trends are any indication of things to come in 2020, that's very bad news for the GOP.

[Jaymann]

It does give a bit of hope at the POTUS level that purple will revert to blue but honestly, I'm not seeing the blue message that moves the voters beyond "not Trump" going out and I'm not sure "not Trump" is enough, even if it seems obvious that is should be. But again, my compass is useless.

TBH, I expect it to come down to the economy, as it so often does. If the recession begins while Trump's still in office, he'll be easy to beat. If we're still bumping along in positive territory he will be fine. He will almost surely surrender his trade war to ensure the latter outcome.

I'm not so sure. The idiot thinks the trade war is helping the economy. If any minions dispute this he will fire them.

[TheMix]

It does give a bit of hope at the POTUS level that purple will revert to blue but honestly, I'm not seeing the blue message that moves the voters beyond "not Trump" going out and I'm not sure "not Trump" is enough, even if it seems obvious that is should be. But again, my compass is useless.

TBH, I expect it to come down to the economy, as it so often does. If the recession begins while Trump's still in office, he'll be easy to beat. If we're still bumping along in positive territory he will be fine. He will almost surely surrender his trade war to ensure the latter outcome.

I'm not so sure. The idiot thinks the trade war is helping the economy. If any minions dispute this he will fire them.

Also, isn't he pathologically incapable of "losing". So the only way I see him surrendering the trade war is if his advisors managed to sell it to him as a win. And does he have any left that are clever enough for that level of contortion?

[Kraken]

It does give a bit of hope at the POTUS level that purple will revert to blue but honestly, I'm not seeing the blue message that moves the voters beyond "not Trump" going out and I'm not sure "not Trump" is enough, even if it seems obvious that is should be. But again, my compass is useless.

TBH, I expect it to come down to the economy, as it so often does. If the recession begins while Trump's still in office, he'll be easy to beat. If we're still bumping along in positive territory he will be fine. He will almost surely surrender his trade war to ensure the latter outcome.

I'm not so sure. The idiot thinks the trade war is helping the economy. If any minions dispute this he will fire them.

Also, isn't he pathologically incapable of "losing". So the only way I see him surrendering the trade war is if his advisors managed to sell it to him as a win. And does he have any left that are clever enough for that level of contortion?

We'll see what happens. The Chinese would like to negotiate with a different administration, so they aren't going to blink. If the leading indicators turn sour enough, Trump will.