Dancing the Charleston into Super Tuesday

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:50 pm

A little early for this thread, but we're going to need it. The next debate is 2/25 in Charleston; the SC primary is 2/29; and, of course, the big event is just a few days later (3/3).

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:59 pm

FWIW, the latest polls show Biden's lead in SC shrinking as Bernie surges. If Biden can't manage at least a very strong #2, he is done for. Biden really, really needs his best debate performance ever this Tuesday night. But all eyes will be on whether Warren can repeat her last blowout. Bloomberg will be ready for her this time...is he a gift that keeps on giving? I would love to see her (and the rest of the field) mop the floor with him again.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:35 pm

Kraken wrote: ↑Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:59 pm FWIW, the latest polls show Biden's lead in SC shrinking as Bernie surges. If Biden can't manage at least a very strong #2, he is done for. Biden really, really needs his best debate performance ever this Tuesday night. But all eyes will be on whether Warren can repeat her last blowout. Bloomberg will be ready for her this time...is he a gift that keeps on giving? I would love to see her (and the rest of the field) mop the floor with him again.

Bloomberg is the fattest target, but everyone knows that this is also the last chance to wound Sanders before he wraps it up.

It's going to be harsh.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:34 pm

Kraken wrote: ↑Sun Feb 23, 2020 6:59 pm FWIW, the latest polls show Biden's lead in SC shrinking as Bernie surges. If Biden can't manage at least a very strong #2, he is done for. Biden really, really needs his best debate performance ever this Tuesday night. But all eyes will be on whether Warren can repeat her last blowout. Bloomberg will be ready for her this time...is he a gift that keeps on giving? I would love to see her (and the rest of the field) mop the floor with him again.

#2 won't cut it - Biden needs to win SC outright. The good news for him is: (1) as of now, he's leading in the polls there; (2) with the Bernie freak-out in full effect, I expect that candidates will mostly be directing their fire at Sanders in the SC debate; (3) Bloomberg will still be there to suck up some of the progressive fire; (4) if he wins, the media will be dying to write the "Biden Comeback!" stories afterwards.

I feel like Biden's people should be offering Steyer whatever the hell he wants in order to get him to drop out before SC, though.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:42 pm

The idea that we would bounce from Bernie to Biden this week is not helping with the feeling that collectively our nation is fuct in November.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:44 pm

Tonight's debate runs from 8-10:30 pm ET, an hour earlier than the last one. Should help Biden, who struggles to stay awake past 10 o'clock.

Drazzil · Post by **Drazzil** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:51 pm

Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:44 pm Tonight's debate runs from 8-10:30 pm ET, an hour earlier than the last one. Should help Biden, who struggles to stay awake past 10 o'clock.

rittchard · Post by **rittchard** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:42 pm

I'm expecting everyone to come firing at Bernie tonight (not sure about Warren, but she might as well do it too since she's being lumped into the moderates now). And then Bernie will wave his fingers, repeat the same 2 talking points, and it will be as if none of it happened.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:48 pm

More and more, Bernie's campaign looks like a personality cult. If he waves off the attacks with good humor and sticks with his usual talking points, he'll be fine.

Warren's got to convince both the progressives and the moderates that she should be their first choice, not their second as she currently is, because being acceptable to each camp but preferred by neither can only ever deliver 3rd-4th place. IDK how she can do that, but that's what I'll be watching her for.

Bloomberg's the biggest threat to the moderates. When he saw Biden foundering, he entered the race to sweep them all aside and confront Bernie. Thing is, if it does come down to Bloom vs Bernie, Sanders will mop the floor with him.

hitbyambulance · Post by **hitbyambulance** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:28 pm

Bloomberg eviscerated by Warren

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:29 pm

hitbyambulance wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:28 pm Bloomberg eviscerated by Warren

Can we just make her the nominee now?

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:33 pm

Holy Shit. Biden is kicking ass like he hasn't ever before.

Briefly.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:35 pm

Holy cow. This is an amazing shit show. How can anyone watch this and not think the Democrats are not at war with each other and not completely out of their minds. This is bizarrely ugly.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:41 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:35 pm Holy cow. This is an amazing shit show. How can anyone watch this and not think the Democrats are not at war with each other and not completely out of their minds. This is bizarrely ugly.

GOP did the same in 2016. There's a lot at stake in a primary. Candidates are competitors.

For a few cycles there we got used to 2- or 3-person primaries on one side or the other, but there's no reason to think they're more normal than this.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:45 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:41 pm
malchior wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:35 pm Holy cow. This is an amazing shit show. How can anyone watch this and not think the Democrats are not at war with each other and not completely out of their minds. This is bizarrely ugly.
GOP did the same in 2016. There's a lot at stake in a primary. Candidates are competitors.

Pretty much what I'm getting at here. That they are replicating the disaster in 2016 with the same lack of decorum is hardly a ringing endorsement. Our politics are awful and depressing. There are civilized ways to disagree.

For a few cycles there we got used to 2- or 3-person primaries on one side or the other, but there's no reason to think they're more normal than this.

I can't remember too many debates where the people are essentially full on yelling at each other and crowds jeering and cheering them like this. This is not the norm.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:06 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:45 pm This is not the norm.

It is now.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:09 pm

Another good thing about this debate is that they are asking important questions like whether Mike Bloomberg will ban the Big Gulp. FFS.

Now legalizing marijuana. Cool. The nation is at risk of sliding into autocracy but whee...420!

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:12 pm

PREDICTION: Trump will be in front of a screaming crowd of pre-diabatic MAGAts, yelling to them about how he wants to give them 64 oz sodas again.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:15 pm

malchior wrote:Another good thing about this debate is that they are asking important questions like whether Mike Bloomberg will ban the Big Gulp. FFS.

Now legalizing marijuana. Cool. The nation is at risk of sliding into autocracy but whee...420!

Low-carb bread and animal-free circuses.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:24 pm

Damn you CBS. Your moderators make me miss Chuck Todd. CHUCK EFFING TODD!

What kind of question ends with (paraphrasing) russians hacked our election - do you launch a retaliatory cyber attack? Do the mods think these folks are running to be Jack Bauer?

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:03 pm

This feels correct. My favorite part so far was when Nora O'Donnell tried to end the debate early. That seemed like the right thing to do.

My motto: CBS should never get another debate

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:26 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:41 pm
malchior wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:35 pm Holy cow. This is an amazing shit show. How can anyone watch this and not think the Democrats are not at war with each other and not completely out of their minds. This is bizarrely ugly.
GOP did the same in 2016. There's a lot at stake in a primary. Candidates are competitors.

For a few cycles there we got used to 2- or 3-person primaries on one side or the other, but there's no reason to think they're more normal than this.

Everyone on that stage believes s/he deserves to win, that it's important that s/he does, and most of them only get one shot. Only Butti and the Klobs will be back in four or eight years. They absolutely have to pull out all the stops, because a week from now some of them are going to drop out.

That said, why can't moderators control the microphones?

Also, did Bloomberg pay some audience members?

I don't know that there were any clear winners or losers tonight. We'll have to wait and see what voters thought.

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:42 am

malchior wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:03 pm This feels correct. My favorite part so far was when Nora O'Donnell tried to end the debate early. That seemed like the right thing to do.

My motto: CBS should never get another debate

100%

I hate these debates, but this one was particularly awful.

LawBeefaroni · Post by **LawBeefaroni** » Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:17 am

Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:26 pm
Also, did Bloomberg pay some audience members?

That's his MDA rooting section. He's been turfing them for years. It's one of his weapons, he had like 6 million pearl-clutching white middle class moms ready to do his bidding.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:59 am

Kurth wrote: ↑Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:42 am100%

I hate these debates, but this one was particularly awful.

It feels like one of the worst ones I've seen in my life time. Probably comparable to the worst GOP 2016 debates luckily without the penis size defenses. It was ineptly moderated, had candidates literally yelling and talking over each other, and then the questions were horrible. Questions about the Big Gulp ban, retaliatory cyber attacks, legal pot, should the Chinese build critical infrastructure, etc. Awful night for CBS and us. Our process has become one of the dumbest in democracy. It is pure America circa 2020. It is yelling at each other about nothing that matters to most people.

*to dig on how stupid the questions are I'll dive into one I know extremely well - the critical infrastructure one. Asking if the Chinese should build critical infrastructure is terrible because the US government *itself* can't decide what critical infrastructure is. They've been debating it for about 10 years and most of it hasn't changed since 2015 when they settled at protecting 'sectors'. So it is the policy equivalent of asking 'should the Chinese build something in a sector'. Too broad to be meaningful. It was twisted by each candidate for this reason and they all took the opportunity to say 'no' because there is no consequence. It was meaningless.

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:43 am

Sounds like the winner of last night was me for not watching the debate.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:31 am

Kraken wrote: ↑Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:48 pm More and more, Bernie's campaign looks like a personality cult. If he waves off the attacks with good humor and sticks with his usual talking points, he'll be fine.

Warren's got to convince both the progressives and the moderates that she should be their first choice, not their second as she currently is, because being acceptable to each camp but preferred by neither can only ever deliver 3rd-4th place. IDK how she can do that, but that's what I'll be watching her for.

Bloomberg's the biggest threat to the moderates. When he saw Biden foundering, he entered the race to sweep them all aside and confront Bernie. Thing is, if it does come down to Bloom vs Bernie, Sanders will mop the floor with him.

Bloomberg's candidacy is a disaster. The point of his candidacy is to stop Sanders and then Trump. BUT given the timing of his entering the race, he effectively only has a shot to win via a brokered convention. And in the short term he's taking support from other moderates, and thereby helping Sanders. And while I have some worries about Sanders's electability, Sanders is WAY more electable than a Bloomberg who just became the nominee by leapfrogging Sanders at a contested convention.

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:48 am

malchior wrote: ↑Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:59 am
Kurth wrote: ↑Wed Feb 26, 2020 4:42 am100%

I hate these debates, but this one was particularly awful.
It feels like one of the worst ones I've seen in my life time. Probably comparable to the worst GOP 2016 debates luckily without the penis size defenses. It was ineptly moderated, had candidates literally yelling and talking over each other, and then the questions were horrible. Questions about the Big Gulp ban, retaliatory cyber attacks, legal pot, should the Chinese build critical infrastructure, etc. Awful night for CBS and us. Our process has become one of the dumbest in democracy. It is pure America circa 2020. It is yelling at each other about nothing that matters to most people.

*to dig on how stupid the questions are I'll dive into one I know extremely well - the critical infrastructure one. Asking if the Chinese should build critical infrastructure is terrible because the US government *itself* can't decide what critical infrastructure is. They've been debating it for about 10 years and most of it hasn't changed since 2015 when they settled at protecting 'sectors'. So it is the policy equivalent of asking 'should the Chinese build something in a sector'. Too broad to be meaningful. It was twisted by each candidate for this reason and they all took the opportunity to say 'no' because there is no consequence. It was meaningless.

I watched last night with my boys, ages 11 and 16. This is the first presidential election they've really paid attention to. At one point, the 11 year old looked over at me and asked, "Is this for real?" He couldn't believe the amount of interruption and the talking over and the total lack of control and inconsistent enforcement of the rules by the CBS moderators.

Another question that stunned me with its stupidity (not because the topic is dumb but because it is too narrowly focused and obscure) was the Twitter question about how specifically to deal with the plight of the Syrian people in Idlib:

"The city of Idlib in Syria is facing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. The Syrian regime and Russia are targeting schools, bakeries, and hospitals. What would you do as president to push back regime and Russian forces and stop the killing of innocent civilians?"

The American people are not going to choose their next president based on the current situation in Idlib, as serious as that situation is. Most Americans - I'm guessing 99% - couldn't find Idlib on a map, and I bet 98% of them don't even know what country Idlib is in or why it's currently under siege or what it's relevance is to the U.S. and our foreign policy vis a vis Russia and Syria. The question was a waste of time and prompted the vacuous Buttigeig answer:

"I stand with the people of Idlib, who are being targeted, as you said, in a brutal fashion by a dictatorship that has already been so brutal for so many years."

That's great, Pete. Just swell. He then immediately pivoted back to a question that actually matters in this election and shifted to talking about health care and how Sanders' position on eliminating private insurance is radical and even goes further than many of the foreign countries Bernie holds up as models:

"What is a radical idea is completely eliminating all private insurance. And part of how you know it is, is that no industrialized country has gone that far. He and I both like to talk about Denmark, for example. But even in Denmark, they have not abolished the possibility of private insurance. So this is an idea that goes further than what is acceptable in Denmark the country, let alone imagining how that's going to fly in Denmark, South Carolina."

In a properly run debate, the candidates shouldn't have to contort themselves to have an opportunity to speak about the defining issues of the day.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:09 pm

Looks like it was Biden's dance (surprising nobody, and disappointing many).

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:10 pm

A week ago Biden had a 2 point lead in the SC polling average, that polling average jumped to a 15% lead and now it looks like he'll win by almost 30%. Just how good was his debate performance.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:13 pm

It will probably come down to the Clyburn endorsement plus a lack of youth turnout.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:31 pm

Steyer is out.

NickAragua · Post by **NickAragua** » Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:56 pm

Kraken wrote: ↑Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:31 pmSteyer is out.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:11 am

Steyer is passionate about climate change and at least rational about everything else except his necktie collection. If we must elect a billionaire, we will certainly do worse.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:24 am

Biden has also regained the lead in polls in NC. A couple of days ago he was still behind Sanders (albeit single digits). If we see the rest of the African-American vote start to coalesce around Biden as they did in SC, Sanders will certainly start feeling the heat.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:20 am

Kraken wrote: ↑Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:11 am Steyer is passionate about climate change and at least rational about everything else except his necktie collection. If we must elect a billionaire, we will certainly do worse.

Hopefully SC will give Biden a good boost against Bloomberg on Tuesday.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:27 pm

First polls close in 90 minutes. I predict a Bernie blowout in VT.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:11 pm

Biden wins Virginia, Vermont goes to Sanders.

Already seeing Sanders supporters on Twitter upset that Biden carried Virginia.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:19 pm

Will not surprise me at all to see/hear Sanders supporters calling for insurrection after tonight. Not even a little.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:30 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:19 pm Will not surprise me at all to see/hear Sanders supporters calling for insurrection after tonight. Not even a little.

I had a British friend ask today why a hardcore Bernie Bro he's friends with on Facebook is so militant about Sanders being the only choice and how people should stay home in November if Sanders doesn't win. He said it's pretty mind boggling especially after their most recent election where Labour failed so spectacularly.