Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Zaxxon]

In today's issue of 'golly gee, would ya look at that!'

Colorado schools that require masks have lower coronavirus case rates, state says.

[Smoove_B]

I've lost track of the number of people that just refuse to believe masks + kids work. Not perfect - nothing is - but actually protect them. I'd hope that CO data is widely shared.

In other news, vigilante treatments are all the rage:

Anti-vaccine Facebook groups have a new message for their community members: Don’t go to the emergency room, and get your loved ones out of intensive care units.

Consumed by conspiracy theories claiming that doctors are preventing unvaccinated patients from receiving miracle cures or are even killing them on purpose, some people in anti-vaccine and pro-ivermectin Facebook groups are telling those with Covid-19 to stay away from hospitals and instead try increasingly dangerous at-home treatments, according to posts seen by NBC News over the past few weeks.

...

But as the patients begin to realize that ivermectin by itself is not effective, the groups have begun recommending a series of increasingly hazardous at-home treatments, such as gargling with iodine, and nebulizing and inhaling hydrogen peroxide, calling it part of a “protocol.”

Nebulizing hydrogen peroxide???? I guess we'll be reading about how people that need nebulizers or nebulizer parts can't find them any more soon enough.

[LawBeefaroni]

I've lost track of the number of people that just refuse to believe masks + kids work. Not perfect - nothing is - but actually protect them. I'd hope that CO data is widely shared.

In other news, vigilante treatments are all the rage:

Anti-vaccine Facebook groups have a new message for their community members: Don’t go to the emergency room, and get your loved ones out of intensive care units.

Consumed by conspiracy theories claiming that doctors are preventing unvaccinated patients from receiving miracle cures or are even killing them on purpose, some people in anti-vaccine and pro-ivermectin Facebook groups are telling those with Covid-19 to stay away from hospitals and instead try increasingly dangerous at-home treatments, according to posts seen by NBC News over the past few weeks.

...

But as the patients begin to realize that ivermectin by itself is not effective, the groups have begun recommending a series of increasingly hazardous at-home treatments, such as gargling with iodine, and nebulizing and inhaling hydrogen peroxide, calling it part of a “protocol.”

Nebulizing hydrogen peroxide???? I guess we'll be reading about how people that need nebulizers or nebulizer parts can't find them any more soon enough.

I wouldn't wish an agonizing death at home on these people but if they choose it of their own free will and keep the ED from getting overrun at the same time, so be it.

It smells of 4Chan trolls seeing how many deaths they can cause though.

[Freyland]

I've lost track of the number of people that just refuse to believe masks + kids work. Not perfect - nothing is - but actually protect them. I'd hope that CO data is widely shared.

In other news, vigilante treatments are all the rage:

Anti-vaccine Facebook groups have a new message for their community members: Don’t go to the emergency room, and get your loved ones out of intensive care units.

Consumed by conspiracy theories claiming that doctors are preventing unvaccinated patients from receiving miracle cures or are even killing them on purpose, some people in anti-vaccine and pro-ivermectin Facebook groups are telling those with Covid-19 to stay away from hospitals and instead try increasingly dangerous at-home treatments, according to posts seen by NBC News over the past few weeks.

...

But as the patients begin to realize that ivermectin by itself is not effective, the groups have begun recommending a series of increasingly hazardous at-home treatments, such as gargling with iodine, and nebulizing and inhaling hydrogen peroxide, calling it part of a “protocol.”

Nebulizing hydrogen peroxide???? I guess we'll be reading about how people that need nebulizers or nebulizer parts can't find them any more soon enough.

I wouldn't wish an agonizing death at home on these people but if they choose it of their own free will and keep the ED from getting overrun at the same time, so be it.

It smells of 4Chan trolls seeing how many deaths they can cause though.

+1 to the above, but actually sounds like a recipe to rapidly increase ventilator patients, which we absolutely do not need.

[Isgrimnur]

NIH

Although most inhalational exposures cause little more than coughing and transient dyspnoea, inhalation of highly concentrated solutions of hydrogen peroxide can cause severe irritation and inflammation of mucous membranes, with coughing and dyspnoea. Shock, coma and convulsions may ensue and pulmonary oedema may occur up to 24-72 hours post exposure.

[Blackhawk]

It will give 'coughing up a lung' a whole new meaning.

[Default]

My ex is in-person teaching preschool students. Four of them were sick yesterday. She takes temperatures, but a common tactic is to give them Tylenol, so they pass the morning temperature check. She's getting a covid test on Saturday, before she comes over for Sunday dinner with the kids and me.

Is this where you post that Cracked Zombie video in here?

or, maybe not. there are no appointments available until next week.

[Paingod]

I work in retail grocery, a lot of higher-end 'quality' food with a fair mix for any income level.

There's a trend rippling through the store - and every other store I see - where some supply trucks are showing up 40%-70% light, if at all. It was a fluke when it started happening, but it feels like it's becoming more normal. One of our ordering managers told me the store is stocking things he wouldn't normally order, just to keep the shelves filled (and it irks him that these "crap" food items are selling like hotcakes). I see gaps in other grocery stores when I visit them, so I know we're not an aberration. I'm sure it's just "ripples" but enough ripples can create a lot of problems.

Heck, just a couple weeks ago after the Vax Mandate rolled out, our biggest supplier didn't send us anything for two days because 9 of their order pickers walked off the job simultaneously after being told they had to follow the rules. Prices on a lot of things have been jumping to accommodate higher costs for the things we sell.

I know there's always some rumbling about the fragility of our supply chains in the US. I'm not getting my sandwich board and bell ready, not even close, but I'd very much like whatever this is to settle down.

How is the job market settling in after losing hundreds of thousands of people to this plague, with maybe 1/4 of them still in the "working" age category? How is that hitting less obvious things, like supply chains and subcontracted services?

[Kraken]

Oh, supply chains are definitely creaking. As of a few days ago there were 64 ships waiting at anchor outside the Port of LA because there aren't enough dockworkers to unload them or truckers to haul away their goods. I heard today that NYC has acquired a smaller flotilla.

Couple days ago Wife and I both ordered new eyeglasses. We were told that they *should* be there in 2-3 weeks, but due to supply problems (both frames and blank lenses) their lab is running a couple weeks behind. When I asked for a bottle of the cleaning mist they used to give away for free, the optometrist said they can't get it anymore. There aren't enough little plastic spritzer bottles.

And for the past two weeks my grocer's paper towel aisle has been mostly empty, with only the crappy brands available.

I've been drawing down my pandemic pantry hoard, but am now thinking I might need to rebuild it.

[YellowKing]

Get your Christmas shopping done early, folks.

[malchior]

Oh, supply chains are definitely creaking. As of a few days ago there were 64 ships waiting at anchor outside the Port of LA because there aren't enough dockworkers to unload them or truckers to haul away their goods. I heard today that NYC has acquired a smaller flotilla.

Couple days ago Wife and I both ordered new eyeglasses. We were told that they *should* be there in 2-3 weeks, but due to supply problems (both frames and blank lenses) their lab is running a couple weeks behind. When I asked for a bottle of the cleaning mist they used to give away for free, the optometrist said they can't get it anymore. There aren't enough little plastic spritzer bottles.

And for the past two weeks my grocer's paper towel aisle has been mostly empty, with only the crappy brands available.

I've been drawing down my pandemic pantry hoard, but am now thinking I might need to rebuild it.

This isn't just port issues. I mentioned it earlier but my wife is at a big chemical components distributor. They are seeing major issues on domestic produced raw materials too. They are "contributing" to the problem as their warehouse and production facility was flooded 4 times in the last 2-3 months. This has happened 0 times ever before this year and they are scrambling for new space somewhere inland. There are a lot of disruptions in the economy right now between the ports, trucking issues, weather impacts, etc.

[Smoove_B]

Yeah, there's definitely some weird stuff going on and I've heard/read in more than one place that we should expect the whole holiday shopping season to be a nightmare (if rabid consumerism is your thing).

I don't think we're going to dip into the insanity of 2020 or get to "crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside" levels over the next 6 months, but I don't think things are going to be normal by any means. Above and beyond the port issues, the whole trucking industry seems to have taken a severe hit and they're without question the backbone of our just-in-time economy.

[Kraken]

Good point about xmas. A lot of those waiting ships are carrying retailers' holiday orders. Just-in-time inventory is going to be another pandemic casualty.

You'd think autonomous driving would be up to long-haul routes -- interstates are pretty predictable environments. But robotrucks are still a couple of years away...and that's if the teamsters don't have anything to say about it.

[LawBeefaroni]

Crude oil is approaching $80/bbl and predictions are for shortages of heating oil this winter.

I'm restocking backups of all the non-perishables.

[LordMortis]

Crude oil is approaching $80/bbl and predictions are for shortages of heating oil this winter.

I'm restocking backups of all the non-perishables.

Yeah, it's probably time. CNBC was doing reports on the UK shortages and how that is coming to the US, nothing the Costco is already putting limits on purchases again and we aren't yet in short supply.

[coopasonic]

Get your Christmas shopping done early, folks.

Everyone is welcome to buy me Steam games or Playstation e-gift cards, thanks. No warehouses necessary!In our house that works for everyone but my wife and she got a new car this year (just before prices went crazy) so I should be able to... yeah never mind.

[Smoove_B]

Crude oil is approaching $80/bbl and predictions are for shortages of heating oil this winter.

As someone that heats his home with oil...not amused. I have about half a tank right now, so maybe i should fill it this week instead of waiting until Jan. Ugh.

[coopasonic]

Crude oil is approaching $80/bbl and predictions are for shortages of heating oil this winter.

As someone that heats his home with oil...not amused. I have about half a tank right now, so maybe i should fill it this week instead of waiting until Jan. Ugh.

Could be worse, you could be in Texas.

[Isgrimnur]

I need to go get water bottles. What's the standard for portable potable water storage these days?

[YellowKing]

Everyone is welcome to buy me Steam games or Playstation e-gift cards, thanks. No warehouses necessary!

We're actually making a rule this year among the adults that we can't give each other physical stuff. It wasn't really borne out of the pandemic; we just all have too much clutter and don't need any more things. But it serves a dual purpose considering stuff might be hard to come by.

The kids will still get their normal Christmas, but we're going to focus on either gift cards for digital stuff, homemade goodies, etc.

[stessier]

The kids will still get their normal Christmas,

Do your shopping soon - very soon. My wife works for an independent toy store and they expect to be closed most of December because they will be completely out of stock.

[Defiant]

... and those hordes of people will only be even more convinced it's a hoax when the zombies don't bite them because they want "BRAAAAINS!"

[Zaxxon]

Ed Yong is back with a piece that is bound to make Smoove swoon: We're already barreling toward the next pandemic.

The opening:

A year after the United States bombed its pandemic performance in front of the world, the Delta variant opened the stage for a face-saving encore. If the U.S. had learned from its mishandling of the original SARS-CoV-2 virus, it would have been better prepared for the variant that was already ravaging India.

Instead, after a quiet spring, President Joe Biden all but declared victory against SARS-CoV-2. The CDC ended indoor masking for vaccinated people, pitting two of the most effective interventions against each other. As cases fell, Abbott Laboratories, which makes a rapid COVID-19 test, discarded inventory, canceled contracts, and laid off workers, The New York Times reported. Florida and Georgia scaled back on reporting COVID-19 data, according to Kaiser Health News. Models failed to predict Delta’s early arrival. The variant then ripped through the U.S.’s half-vaccinated populace and once again pushed hospitals and health-care workers to the brink. Delta’s extreme transmissibility would have challenged any nation, but the U.S. nonetheless set itself up for failure. Delta was an audition for the next pandemic, and one that America flubbed. How can a country hope to stay 10 steps ahead of tomorrow’s viruses when it can’t stay one step ahead of today’s?

America’s frustrating inability to learn from the recent past shouldn’t be surprising to anyone familiar with the history of public health. Almost 20 years ago, the historians of medicine Elizabeth Fee and Theodore Brown lamented that the U.S. had “failed to sustain progress in any coherent manner” in its capacity to handle infectious diseases. With every new pathogen—cholera in the 1830s, HIV in the 1980s—Americans rediscover the weaknesses in the country’s health system, briefly attempt to address the problem, and then “let our interest lapse when the immediate crisis seems to be over,” Fee and Brown wrote. The result is a Sisyphean cycle of panic and neglect that is now spinning in its third century. Progress is always undone; promise, always unfulfilled. Fee died in 2018, two years before SARS-CoV-2 arose. But in documenting America’s past, she foresaw its pandemic present—and its likely future.

More Americans have been killed by the new coronavirus than the influenza pandemic of 1918, despite a century of intervening medical advancement. The U.S. was ranked first among nations in pandemic preparedness but has among the highest death rates in the industrialized world. It invests more in medical care than any comparable country, but its hospitals have been overwhelmed. It helped develop COVID-19 vaccines at near-miraculous and record-breaking speed, but its vaccination rates plateaued so quickly that it is now 38th in the world. COVID-19 revealed that the U.S., despite many superficial strengths, is alarmingly vulnerable to new diseases—and such diseases are inevitable. As the global population grows, as the climate changes, and as humans push into spaces occupied by wild animals, future pandemics become more likely. We are not guaranteed the luxury of facing just one a century, or even one at a time.

It might seem ridiculous to think about future pandemics now, as the U.S. is consumed by debates over booster shots, reopened schools, and vaccine mandates. Prepare for the next one? Let’s get through this one first! But America must do both together, precisely because of the cycle that Fee and Brown bemoaned. Today’s actions are already writing the opening chapters of the next pandemic’s history.

[LawBeefaroni]

Dunno, I prefer to believe that we totally defeated COVID in a little over a year's time.

Potato, potahto. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.

[Smoove_B]

Ed Yong is back with a piece that is bound to make Smoove swoon: We're already barreling toward the next pandemic.

Thanks. I do need to read this today.

[Smoove_B]

Is there a story more American than this? Missouri hospitals are issuing panic buttons to hospital staff:

Cox Medical Center Branson is using grant money to add buttons to identification badges worn by up to 400 employees who work in the emergency room and inpatient hospital rooms. Pushing the button will immediately alert hospital security, launching a tracking system that will send help to the endangered worker. The hospital hopes to have the system operational by the end of the year.

A similar program was successfully tested last year at CoxHealth’s Springfield hospital, spokeswoman Kaitlyn McConnell said Tuesday.

Hospital data showed that the number of “security incidents” at the Branson hospital rose from 94 in 2019 to 162 in 2020. Assaults rose from 40 to 123 during that same period, and injuries to health care workers rose from 17 to 78. Data for 2021 was not available.

More:

Assaults on health care workers have been a concern for years, Missouri Hospital Association spokesman Dave Dillon said, but COVID-19 “has changed the dynamic in a number of ways.” Among them: The effort to slow the spread of the virus means relatives often can’t accompany a sick person, raising already-high stress levels.

Jackie Gatz, vice president of safety and preparedness for the Missouri Hospital Association, said the use of a button alert is among many steps hospitals are taking to protect workers. Security cameras are being added, and some security personnel are wearing body cameras. CoxHealth added security dogs late last year in Springfield.

[Isgrimnur]

No word on if Yakov Smirnoff is tapped for the negotiation team.

[Octavious]

He's probably one of the few people that's still alive from that show.

[Smoove_B]

When I think I've read the most depressing COVID-19 story, another one comes out of nowhere and absolutely flattens me.

A 10-year-old girl in Suffolk died Monday from COVID-19 after being tasked with walking sick children in her class to the clinic, her mother wrote on Facebook. She is the 12th person in Virginia younger than 20 to die from the virus.

...

Nicole Sperry attributed her daughter’s infection to parents allowing their sick children to attend school. Teresa Sperry’s teacher assigned Teresa the job of nurse, walking all the sick students in class to the nurse’s office, Nicole Sperry wrote.

...

All K-12 students in Virginia are required to wear a mask in school.

...

“My beautiful girl was taken from me because people are too damn selfish to care about what could happen to others,” Nicole Sperry wrote. “We wore our mask because there are too many in our tribe who are at risk. My daughter was not at risk. And now she is gone.”

“Want to know what you can do to honor my lovely girl? Wear a damn mask! Get vaccinated!” she wrote.

Nicole Sperry described her daughter as “perfectly healthy” and urged parents to keep their sick kids home from school.

[Isgrimnur]

That teacher needs to be held accountable.

[Smoove_B]

Not a great milestone.

BREAKING: U.S. coronavirus death toll hits 700,000

Also, that's more reported deaths in ~19 months than the flu has killed in ~20 years. When we get the actual number I'm convinced it'll be over a million.

EDIT: 700K is also a rough total of the number of HIV/AIDS deaths in ~40 years for more perspective.

[Defiant]

UK Study:

Coronavirus vaccines cut risk of long Covid, study finds

• Of the 592 fully vaccinated people with Covid who continued to provide data for more than a month, 31 (5%) went on to get long Covid (defined as illness lasting 28 days or more after a positive test)
• In the unvaccinated group this figure was about 11%

More potentially positive news with regards to vaccinations and long covid:

[Max Peck]

The kids will still get their normal Christmas,

Do your shopping soon - very soon. My wife works for an independent toy store and they expect to be closed most of December because they will be completely out of stock.

The CBC just ran an article on how ongoing supply chain disruptions are expected to affect toy availability by Christmas.

Supply chain crunch could threaten holiday wish lists

It's not even Halloween yet. But to avoid any disappointment come December, retailers are urging consumers to get started on their holiday shopping.

"I would say get your kids to write their Santa Claus letters early and get them in the mail by October … because we don't know where inventory is going to be," said Sam Care, owner of Playful Minds, a Toronto toy store.

Care has received just 40 per cent of the products she's ordered amid global delays in manufacturing and shipping. She says toys that are usually delivered in days are taking much longer to arrive.

"This year it's been weeks. I mean, two months, three months," Care said.

"It's been very challenging trying to get inventory in."

Getting those presents under the tree this year is harder than it normally is because the pandemic has thrown a wrench into global supply chains — the complex process of getting consumers goods from where they are made to where they are sold.

[Smoove_B]

Let this sink in: About 40 percent of the most recent 100,000 people to die of the virus were under 65.

No preventable death is OK, but here you have parents burying their children.

[Smoove_B]

Need more now, but this will help.

NEW >> The FDA just authorized another rapid COVID test that you can take at home.

The manufacturer says they can produce 100M+ tests per month by the end of the year, and 200M/month by February.

[malchior]

This is something that doesn't get the administration enough credit. They rolled in and fast tracked several measures and used the DPA to increase vaccine and testing capacity. Miles and away better than the Trump administration.

[Smoove_B]

Well....

Kinda. There's no reason (seriously, no reason) that we don't have $5 rapid tests available on every corner. There's no reason why the administration couldn't have mailed two kits to every family along with a stack of N95s.

Instead, we pivoted away from masking and testing back in May when we tried to convince the "vaccine hesitant" to join the rest of us. Instead, we now have ~57% of Americans fully vaccinated as we head into our second (!) COVID winter. The 7 day positivity is around 7% (nationally), though trending down. Many have noted that cases are also trending down and they're thinking we've "turned a corner". There doesn't seem to be an acknowledgement that the same damn thing happened last year in the north east. Yes, we have vaccinations, but ~57% of the population being fully vaccinated isn't going to do it.

To be clear (and because I'm the resident Debbie Downer), things are better, but reading today the general feeling that everything is super isn't quite right and it continues this 3+ month journey into magical thinking we've all seemingly agreed to follow.

There is some real potential for the next 6 months to be a mess again. Not widespread mess, but pockets around the U.S. that are going to be a mess - particularly rural communities that were largely spared up until now. Yes overall we are better than a year ago, but it's pretty clear that when Delta gets a foothold, it does not mess around.

And the vaccine stuff - we did a great job of ramping up vaccines for Americans in a short period of time. We now need to continue to do that for everyone else around the globe.

[malchior]

To be clear (and because I'm the resident Debbie Downer), things are better, but reading today the general feeling that everything is super isn't quite right and it continues this 3+ month journey into magical thinking we've all seemingly agreed to follow.

Yeah I get that. It's like they don't have a memory about how last fall went.

There is some real potential for the next 6 months to be a mess again. Not widespread mess, but pockets around the U.S. that are going to be a mess - particularly rural communities that were largely spared up until now. Yes overall we are better than a year ago, but it's pretty clear that when Delta gets a foothold, it does not mess around.

It's weird what the CW sounds like because when I talk to people - even my colleagues in Texas- It sounds like the expectation is that the winter is going to be bleak again. I don't know many people who think we've turned a corner. We're just sick and tired of the assholes.

[Smoove_B]

I don't know many people who think we've turned a corner. We're just sick and tired of the assholes.

There were some rather prominent / respectable people on Twitter today and even over the weekend noting that the big picture numbers look good and we've seemingly pushed through the Delta wave - cases are declining. Dr. Eric Topol (an individual who has opinions I trust) noted today that "Covid is in retreat", while commenting on a NYT piece suggesting the same.

Except he said exactly the same thing back in May of 2021. There doesn't seem to be a recognition that offering these kinds of statements is potentially harmful.

Similar to last year, I am confident the two weeks that follow Thanksgiving will tell us everything we need to know about how we can expect Dec-Feb to go. I know school districts in NJ are asking parents to maybe consider not traveling for various holidays this year...again. I am confident that won't happen.

And to circle back to the observation made earlier - with rapid tests readily available, it could be much safer. But we're just not there.

[malchior]

I don't know many people who think we've turned a corner. We're just sick and tired of the assholes.

There were some rather prominent / respectable people on Twitter today and even over the weekend noting that the big picture numbers look good and we've seemingly pushed through the Delta wave - cases are declining. Dr. Eric Topol (an individual who has opinions I trust) noted today that "Covid is in retreat", while commenting on a NYT piece suggesting the same.

This is where I guess the context matters but I get what you're saying about the masses not necessarily hearing the nuance in the messaging. Ever. They want this to be over and repeatedly we see them try to will that into reality.