Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Smoove_B]

It would have been such an amazing message to be able to say - hey, COVID-19 numbers seem to be declining right now so this is a great time for us to re-double our efforts and really push to mask indoors when you're around people of unknown vaccination status. And yes, mask outdoors if you're in crowded environments out of an abundance of caution. If we do that, the level of circulating virus might get low enough that we can have a safer holiday season - particularly when we expect kids 5-11 can be fully vaccinated by Xmas. They could encourage rapid testing. They could push take out vs indoor dining. They could push outdoor activities for the fall as long as the weather is cooperating.

Instead, it's "Hey, COVID-19 cases are down, so MISSION ACCOMPLISHED"...again.

[Isgrimnur]

After the retreat comes the ambush.

[Paingod]

Crude oil is approaching $80/bbl and predictions are for shortages of heating oil this winter.

As someone that heats his home with oil...not amused. I have about half a tank right now, so maybe i should fill it this week instead of waiting until Jan. Ugh.

As a footnote, for any who may not know:

If you can't get heating oil and absolutely need it before delivery can occur, diesel is an acceptable substitute. We've used 10gal from time to time when delivery dates were out a little too far for comfort.

Apparently the two are almost interchangeable for home heating, but you wouldn't want heating oil in your pickup truck except in urgent need.

[LawBeefaroni]

It would have been such an amazing message to be able to say - hey, COVID-19 numbers seem to be declining right now so this is a great time for us to re-double our efforts and really push to mask indoors when you're around people of unknown vaccination status. And yes, mask outdoors if you're in crowded environments out of an abundance of caution. If we do that, the level of circulating virus might get low enough that we can have a safer holiday season - particularly when we expect kids 5-11 can be fully vaccinated by Xmas. They could encourage rapid testing. They could push take out vs indoor dining. They could push outdoor activities for the fall as long as the weather is cooperating.

Instead, it's "Hey, COVID-19 cases are down, so MISSION ACCOMPLISHED"...again.

Its like an action movie where the bad guy gets "knocked out" and the good giys start hugging and high-fiving without disarming and restraining him. When he gets up and shoots the mentor cop in the back, two weeks before his retirement, we're supposed to cheer the hero when he pops the bad guy in the head.

Sorry, you done fucked up and mentor cop is dead.

[LawBeefaroni]

Crude oil is approaching $80/bbl and predictions are for shortages of heating oil this winter.

As someone that heats his home with oil...not amused. I have about half a tank right now, so maybe i should fill it this week instead of waiting until Jan. Ugh.

As a footnote, for any who may not know:

If you can't get heating oil and absolutely need it before delivery can occur, diesel is an acceptable substitute. We've used 10gal from time to time when delivery dates were out a little too far for comfort.

Apparently the two are almost interchangeable for home heating, but you wouldn't want heating oil in your pickup truck except in urgent need.

A caveat, if you fill up a tank that you usually don't top off, or if you switch to diesel, have an expert inspect your tank. If it ruptures you could be on the hook for 5 or 6-figure cleanup costs.

[Kraken]

Expectations are that cases will creep up through the winter as we Massholes migrate indoors and endure holiday festivities yet again. However, as the second-most vaccinated state we don't expect hospitalizations to follow, and cases shouldn't spike as high as last winter. With nearly 70% of all citizens (not just eligible citizens) fully vaxxed, we're a case study in what will happen amidst the expected seasonal surge. But science is perpetually playing catch-up with this virus. The past 20 months are full of wrong predictions and nobody knows how the next few months will unfold.

[Smoove_B]

The one thing that seems to be holding - even with the vaccine - is this weird ~2 month on/off cycle the virus is following. It's not a pattern related to official policies (like masking) or even seasonal. There's something else going on we don't understand - likely related to human behavior (as I've seen theorized) where the virus is burning through social networks or very specific populations at different times.

So this basically means we're potentially due for a 6-10 week break and then cases will start ramping up again mid to late November or early December.

I guess we'll see.

[Smoove_B]

Forgot to post this yesterday - it's a really good analogy for those that are still struggling to understand why vaccination is important (the video at the bottom, not the original post (though that is also good))

Why Get Vaccinated When You Can Still Get Covid? (NBA edition)

[stessier]

That is really good. We need more of that.

I'm not sure how you reach the Andrew Wiggens of the world, though.

Edit: Although this is at least on his point (the second one).

[Smoove_B]

There really are some really impressive short communication examples on social media that absolutely nail the message. I wish they could be boosted over the noise.

Speaking of noise, here's now a newspaper (NYT) reporting case numbers given to them by a governing agency can muddle the issue - with the use of a simple zero.

Good morning to the @nytimes & its 7-day COVID case moving averages

I'm dispirited to report that someone (City Hall?) has been gaming your system by reporting at least one day of 0 cases every 7 days.

Adding noise changes one's perception of case trends.

Let me explain 1/

[Formix]

So, remember when I mentioned that we were set to lose over 100 employees because of our vaccine mandate? We actually lost . . . 11. From where I'm sitting, vaccine mandates work.

[raydude]

So, remember when I mentioned that we were set to lose over 100 employees because of our vaccine mandate? We actually lost . . . 11. From where I'm sitting, vaccine mandates work.

I figured most of the anti-vaxxers had a chino (conviction held in name only) against the vaccine.

[Zaxxon]

Our local university hospital system lost over 100.

[Kurth]

While my company hasn’t opened up our offices for normal business, this week, I’ve got a series of meetings every day from 8 AM to 4 PM that need to be held in person, on campus. We’ve got about a dozen or so people who flew in from San Francisco, St. Louis, San Diego, Chicago, D.C. and New York. The measures we have to take to hold these meetings:

- All attendees must show proof of vaccination.
- Every day, prior to the first meeting, all attendees must be tested for COVID.
- All meetings must take place in a conference room that’s at less than 10% of the room’s capacity.
- Social distancing inside at all time.
- Mask wearing inside at all times except while eating or drinking.

As a result, while these poor people have flown across the country for this event, most of our local attendees — the people we are all here to interview, have decided to attend via Zoom. The other crazy thing is, the rooms we are in are so large - more like theaters - and we’re all so far away from each other, that even the people that are attending in person have decided to log in to the meeting on Zoom so they can see and hear people better.

Is it me, or have we gone a little over board here? It just feels kind of silly for us all to be vaccinated, freshly tested, and sitting in these cavernous rooms masked and talking to each other through mics and looking at each other via Zoom.

[LawBeefaroni]

Is it me, or have we gone a little over board here? It just feels kind of silly for us all to be vaccinated, freshly tested, and sitting in these cavernous rooms masked and talking to each other through mics and looking at each other via Zoom.

Company needs to make up its f'ing mind. Too many mixed messages. If I flew in for that nonsense, day two I'd be zooming from the hotel bar.

[Smoove_B]

So, remember when I mentioned that we were set to lose over 100 employees because of our vaccine mandate? We actually lost . . . 11. From where I'm sitting, vaccine mandates work.

NJ's largest medical system had a voluntary compliance rate of around 80% back in July. They just announced yesterday that since making it mandatory, compliance is now 99%. Weird, right?

[Smoove_B]

Is it me, or have we gone a little over board here? It just feels kind of silly for us all to be vaccinated, freshly tested, and sitting in these cavernous rooms masked and talking to each other through mics and looking at each other via Zoom.

They probably have someone like me on the risk-management payroll.

But seriously, it sounds like they trying to get the "benefit" of in-person meetings while still doing everything possible to lower the risk. It doesn't make sense (to me), but maybe it's a corporate expenditure mentality driving the process - use of the buildings, use of travel budgets, etc...

At quick glance it makes no sense when meeting remotely is arguably still better. It's been the same here in my state for public meetings since May (!). We bent over backwards last year trying to figure out how to arrange and accommodate fully remote public meetings. Any many commented how they were better attended by the public and there was greater interest and participation. Sometimes not always good participation, but attendance overall was up. But instead of continuing remote public meetings (either fully or hybrid), they're all gone now which is beyond frustrating.

So for your company the sooner they can get people back to the idea that remote meetings are useless and that only in-person meetings are important, the better for them.

[LawBeefaroni]

Almost as if inspired by this thread, just had a call with my boss. Part of the team is 100% WFH and part is 100% in-office. It's location baesed so one campus is WFH and the other is IO. The proposal is to move everyone to one location and make it 3 days WFH and 2 IO or something like that. I'm down.

I'm already paying $120/mo for a private club/co-working space. Would love to write it off.

[Smoove_B]

Just saw that Biden authorized $1 billion (pinky to mouth) to increase availability of rapid /at-home tests. Now let's change them from medical/private health diagnostics to preventative public health tools and marvel at what's possible.

[Daehawk]

They showed a woman on the news tonight that Covid had taken her eyesight. She was declared legally blind. She just ran a marathon with help from her friends and finished it. Still thats scary shit.

[Smoove_B]

A nice snapshot of where we are (data from 10/6)

Is the worst of the US pandemic over? The good news is the 20% reduction cases and hospitalizations in the past 2 weeks, but the levels are still very high. And there's a shift in where deaths are occurring.

[LordMortis]

I just posted the magic 8 Ball saying ask again later. How do you not look at early October 2020 cases, hospitalizations, and death and compare them 2021 and not see things are objectively worse on the whole? The only answer I can come up with, is the unvaccinated don't care until they might. And vaccinated think it's over because the odds of them getting dying dropped by a factor of nearly 99 for the time being.

Personally, I support the mandates and I'll be ecstatic to avoid places that don't require them. I'd want my state to start mandating it for government work and government related service spaces. And I'd want to avoid states that don't have such mandates. At this point, I don't see a better resolution.

Also, how much you want to bet rainy season is high in the NE and driving people to indoor common spaces prematurely? Especially when it comes to getting liquored up... Especially on college campuses...

[Smoove_B]

Personally, I support the mandates and I'll be ecstatic to avoid places that don't require them. I'd want my state to start mandating it for government work and government related service spaces. And I'd want to avoid states that don't have such mandates. At this point, I don't see a better resolution.

No idea what state level politics look like in your part of 'merica, but I would bet my house the upcoming election (Governor) is limiting effective policy here in my state and that after he wins re-election (cannot think of the alternative), he's going to drop all kinds of mandates with the quickness - indoor masking, additional government/public worker vaccination mandates, adding childhood vaccination requirements for 2022 school year, etc...

I'm happy it will happen but I'm also bothered that it's 100% political that it's not happening right now. Additionally, when it does (in the days and weeks following the election), it's going to come off as even more partisan and the usual suspects are going to get worked up into a full MAGA lather yelling and screaming about how they were right and that fascism and control are now fully endorsed. In short, there's real potential to make things worse, which is depressing.

Have I mentioned I'm seriously looking into relocating to Canada? I know it's not going to be a panacea (like TacoLand was, RIP) but I am looking down the road and I don't like what I'm seeing - both literally and figuratively.

[LordMortis]

No idea what state level politics look like in your part of 'merica,

Have I mentioned I'm seriously looking into relocating to Canada? I know it's not going to be a panacea (like TacoLand was, RIP) but I am looking down the road and I don't like what I'm seeing - both literally and figuratively.

I would if I could but Canada are not exactly opening their doors to US expats.

[Smoove_B]

I would if I could but Canada are not exactly opening their doors to US expats.

The people my paternal grandfather stole our family name from when he came to America settled in Canada. On paper, it looks like I have relatives there and I'm hoping that would help. I also figured that would be much easier than trying to relocate to New Zealand.

[Jaymon]

I feel like a groundhog.


Look out window
see all the covid
6 more weeks of quarantine!

[Smoove_B]

A reminder:

COVID19 was the 2nd leading cause of death in the U.S. in September, up from No. 3 in August and No. 8 in July amid the delta variant surge.

For school-aged kids, it was the No. 6 cause of death last month.

[malchior]

Always bet on grift.

[Skinypupy]

A reminder:

COVID19 was the 2nd leading cause of death in the U.S. in September, up from No. 3 in August and No. 8 in July amid the delta variant surge.

For school-aged kids, it was the No. 6 cause of death last month.

"iTS jUsT THe fLu"

[LordMortis]

It just like the flu. We sometimes get as many as 60,000 people dying of flu a year and no one ever tries to make you isolate or wear a mask or get a vaccine. Now go make my eggs for $8 an hour or your life will go to crap and you will destroy this nation!

[Smoove_B]

The thread that is being summarized here is included, but the person making the prediction is a respected, trusted voice. That of course makes this prediction awful.

Must-read thread on the likeliest Covid end-game. Bottom line: an ongoing state w/ approx 40-100k deaths/yr in US, about double the toll of flu. A tragic new societal burden, yet probably not bad enough to lead to the super-high vax/booster & mask rates that might drive it down.

From the last Tweet by Bedford:

This is not cancer or heart disease, but it's still a substantial public health burden. That said, yearly boosters just like flu vaccine, therapeutics like molnupiravir, improved ventilation and rapid testing can all contribute to reducing this ongoing burden. 17/17

[malchior]

That prediction makes sense and "math" checks out. The immediate sad thing is the people complaining that this is fatalism. So many folks really don't understand the evil that has settled over the land and what the consequences are. COVID is only one of many perils we will fail at.

[malchior]

@Smoove_B - human interest angle from central Jersey. My MIL works in the Woodbridge system. Over the past week something is ripping through the schools. She got sick early this week and kept going into work. Despite her having over a massive dragon's hoard of sick days. Whatever. Put aside that inanity. Whatever is ripping through the school sent 30-40 teachers home *today* and she was told to leave and not return until she had a negative test result. She went and got a rapid test. Negative. The school said...nope slow test (PCR I assume?) only. My wife and her spent the last hour calling around. She has an appointment for Sunday afternoon. How is this still a problem?

Edit: Hurrah - a breakthrough they found one 15 miles away (Matawan) tomorrow. Still a hassle. I don't understand.

[Smoove_B]

That prediction makes sense and "math" checks out. The immediate sad thing is the people complaining that this is fatalism. So many folks really don't understand the evil that has settled over the land and what the consequences are. COVID is only one of many perils we will fail at.

It's especially problematic when you see that the impacts of COVID-19 are disproportional. This is an intentional decision coming from a position that isn't going to feel the brunt of the impacts, and it's gross.

RE: the illness you're seeing, you're not alone. There's something ripping through my employer's college campus and has been for weeks now. Each school (district) is apparently handing things as they see fit. I know you're surprised.

[Zaxxon]

It's especially problematic when you see that the impacts of COVID-19 are disproportional. This is an intentional decision coming from a position that isn't going to feel the brunt of the impacts, and it's gross.

Par for the course. See also: climate change.

[Smoove_B]

August was a bad, bad month for unvaccinated 12-17 year olds:

It is stunning how high the recorded incidence of COVID-19 was in August 2021 among unvaccinated 12-17 year olds in the newly released CDC data.

They had the highest peak incidence of any age group: 886/100k population in 16 US jurisdictions.

Vaccinated 12-17 yo had 85.4/100k

[hepcat]

Jesus H. Christ. My oft mentioned Trumper/anti vax coworker just sent out an email update about his latest Covid status (he has had it twice now). He refuses to get the vaccine because he's bought into all the politicized lying and shit.

Anyway, this remarkable email just went out to about 10 people in our company:

I had a rough couple of days but turned the corner last night. If you’ve heard about a treatment on the news, it’s likely I had it. My lungs went from barely sufficient to maintain brain functions to normal while at rest. Movement is still a challenge but much, much better to the point where I can do light breathing exercises standing up. I have one more IV bag of Remdesivir this morning after which they will probably discharge me for continued recovery at home. They expect recovery will take a few weeks but I should fully recover, eventually.

Seriously, just get the goddamn vaccine. One of the partners in our firm was talking with me about this the other day. He and I both just don't understand why he'll get a shit ton of treatments that are basically unproven, but refuses to get the ONE that is.

Just...wow.

[LordMortis]

(he has had it twice now). He refuses to get the vaccine because he's bought into all the politicized lying and shit.

I thought it was a she?

Seriously, just get the goddamn vaccine. One of the partners in our firm was talking with me about this the other day. He and I both just don't understand why he'll get a shit ton of treatments that are basically unproven, but refuses to get the ONE that is.

Just...wow.

So much this.

[El Guapo]

My lungs went from barely sufficient to maintain brain functions to normal while at rest.

I guess I question whether they were sufficient to maintain brain functions up to this point.

[hepcat]

(he has had it twice now). He refuses to get the vaccine because he's bought into all the politicized lying and shit.

I thought it was a she?

We had two such people. The male who I've mentioned before because his facebook page is a cesspool of Trumpisms and barely concealed racism (who wrote the email I quoted) and the female who I was told the other day actually did break down and get the vaccine. I haven't verified this yet though as I've decided to keep all communication with such people at work to a bare minimum.