Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

[malchior]

Each student meeting the teacher for 1 on 1, once a week = may as well just have everyone there.

This is not accurate. Time of exposure is a significant variable in transmission.

Sure but it certainly isn't safe for the teacher.

[noxiousdog]

Each student meeting the teacher for 1 on 1, once a week = may as well just have everyone there.

This is not accurate. Time of exposure is a significant variable in transmission.

Sure but it certainly isn't safe for the teacher.

In a binary sense, yes. In a risk tolerance sense, it depends on the percentage of kids who have covid-19 which is likely pretty low based on a current US infection rate of far less than 1%.

I wouldn't hold choir class though

The data is pointing such that if you don't hang out in groups indoors or shout and scream (sing, cheer, etc), it's not that contagious. If you do either of the two, it's highly contagious.

[malchior]

Each student meeting the teacher for 1 on 1, once a week = may as well just have everyone there.

This is not accurate. Time of exposure is a significant variable in transmission.

Sure but it certainly isn't safe for the teacher.

In a binary sense, yes. In a risk tolerance sense, it depends on the percentage of kids who have covid-19 which is likely pretty low based on a current US infection rate of far less than 1%.

I wouldn't hold choir class though

The data is pointing such that if you don't hang out in groups indoors or shout and scream (sing, cheer, etc), it's not that contagious. If you do either of the two, it's highly contagious.

I don't think we have a good sense of these risk criteria yet but I'd defer to Smoove_B on it. My guess is that this is still largely indeterminate right now so we can't even tell that teacher whether this is safe or not.

[LordMortis]

In a binary sense, yes. In a risk tolerance sense, it depends on the percentage of kids who have covid-19 which is likely pretty low based on a current US infection rate of far less than 1%.

I wouldn't hold choir class though

The data is pointing such that if you don't hang out in groups indoors or shout and scream (sing, cheer, etc), it's not that contagious. If you do either of the two, it's highly contagious.

I'm a loud talker, who in 50 years still can't maintain control of his inside voice. Stay away. Which is also true because inflammatory, heart, and respiratory problems, that's me. Stay away.

[Smoove_B]

In a binary sense, yes. In a risk tolerance sense, it depends on the percentage of kids who have covid-19 which is likely pretty low based on a current US infection rate of far less than 1%.

I think it's more accurate to say that the number of kids in hospitals and dying of COVID-19 is low. What I don't think we have a firm handle on is how many children have legitimately been exposed and whether or not there is a potential for them to be "super-spreaders" and/or more likely to be asymptomatic spreaders. This (once again) comes back to the testing vacuum in the US. The low rate of children in hospitals certainly suggests risk of death is lower, but it doesn't tell us anything about the role they might play in transmission. Add in the abnormal cases of Kawasaki disease and I think there's reason to proceed with caution.

The data is pointing such that if you don't hang out in groups indoors or shout and scream (sing, cheer, etc), it's not that contagious. If you do either of the two, it's highly contagious.

The kicker right now is HVAC systems - both large and small (i.e. ducts vs window units). There is evidence suggesting air flow (directly by or through HVAC systems) can increase risk. I don't know if it's synergistic with yelling/loud talking/singing or it just increases baseline risk when you're indoors. To be fair, I don't think anyone knows for sure, but it keeps coming up as something we really need to consider moving forward.

Going back to children, schools and education - we're collectively at a crossroads. Binary thinking of risk is seemingly unacceptable right now (which isn't unfair) but I don't know how you run an equation involving someone's job (teacher) and a child (student) along with a guardian/parent and ask them to accept risk. People don't vaccinate their children or apply DEET over minuscule levels of risk. I'd argue sending a child into a classroom scenario is much greater risk than getting an annual flu shot or using Deep Woods Off to protect against ticks and mosquitoes.

But yes, once I started thinking about this like radiations - time, distance, shielding it became easier (for me) to conceptualize everything. Moving forward and until there is a vaccine, any time you bring together groups of people in close contact for extended periods of time, there is risk. The larger the group, the longer the time and the fewer people wearing masks increases it by some unknown factor. Moving it indoors? Increased again (unknown). Indoors with mechanically moving air (fans, AC) - increased. I don't know how we effectively communicate risks for things we don't fully understand or expect people to make realistic decisions for themselves or their kids in this scenario.

[noxiousdog]

But yes, once I started thinking about this like radiations - time, distance, shielding it became easier (for me) to conceptualize everything. Moving forward and until there is a vaccine, any time you bring together groups of people in close contact for extended periods of time, there is risk. The larger the group, the longer the time and the fewer people wearing masks increases it by some unknown factor. Moving it indoors? Increased again (unknown). Indoors with mechanically moving air (fans, AC) - increased. I don't know how we effectively communicate risks for things we don't fully understand or expect people to make realistic decisions for themselves or their kids in this scenario.

I don't think it's so much mechanically moving air as much as isolated air that doesn't have a significant outside air exchange. In other words, the viral load gets higher and higher until it is at a level at which it can infect people. I have seen the seat map charts of transmission and sitting in front of a blower is definitely more dangerous. This is logical as the viral load in front of the blower would be 100% of the recycled air and then it distributes, throughout the room volume. Think hot water flowing into a cool bath.

I'm definitely not advocating returning to the classroom, and I'm not even sure what a 1:1 in person time for teachers would accomplish that can't be done via zoom.

But I think it's reasonable to ask what the different risk profiles look like, and it would be on the low end in my opinion.

However, I'm not going into a public bathroom either, so it's a non starter for teachers unless they have limited office hours or they find a way to ventilate the restrooms.

[Smoove_B]

I don't think it's so much mechanically moving air as much as isolated air that doesn't have a significant outside air exchange. In other words, the viral load gets higher and higher until it is at a level at which it can infect people. I have seen the seat map charts of transmission and sitting in front of a blower is definitely more dangerous. This is logical as the viral load in front of the blower would be 100% of the recycled air and then it distributes, throughout the room volume. Think hot water flowing into a cool bath.

Right, the unknown is how the air currents that are being created help to move the particulates further than they might normally go. There's a pre-print article at the CDC right now:

We conclude that in this outbreak, droplet transmission was prompted by air-conditioned ventilation. The key factor for infection was the direction of the airflow.

The recommendations I've seen right now from national HVAC organizations is to not recycle air, but to pull in makeup air. That's good, but if you have ventilation or fans blowing indoors (recycled or fresh), you're still creating those air currents that are potentially spreading droplets further than they'd normally go.

other stuff

My general belief right now is that if we can conduct "business" (whatever that means) via remote tools it should be done. That includes education, meetings for public boards, etc...

When we cannot have remote contact, then we need to do everything to mitigate the known risks - including stepping up sanitizing/cleaning protocols (like in public bathrooms). The rub with all this is that functions predicated on moving lots of people through [something] are in trouble. Retail business. Colleges (amenities, not education). Movie Theaters. Concerts. Amusement Parks. I legitimately don't know how you operate those businesses in a way that allows them to make money (justifying being open) while still minimizing risk. I don't think they're compatible.

[Daehawk]

I felt so dirty coming out of Walmart that I felt a shower was in order and a bath in alcohol. I hurried as fast as I could with my mask. But inside I saw maybe 7 people with a mask and they were old folks. No one else. People going wrong ways in the aisles. Ugh. I hated breathing that air as I know my mask wasn't doing a lot for me. I lathered down in sanitizer when i got ready to get back in my car.

It was also warm inside. Not hot not cold or cool but warm. Perfect for germs. I was sweating. I ripped my mask off outside as I headed to the car.

[malchior]

Trump just announced we are "terminating" relations with the World Health Organization because China is controlling it. He is underlining 'worst President' in history every day. I wish we could "terminate" our relationship with him.

[Jaymann]

It's getting harder and harder to divert attention from a rising death toll and rampant unemployment.

[malchior]

He said over and over that this is part of a stand against the aggressive Chinese move toward Hawwwng Kawwwng (said 100 times). Then he ran away without further comment. What a wimp. Chuck Todd just said he looked afraid and has no answers for the trouble. Chuck Todd!?!

[noxiousdog]

Stuff

I was mentioning today that I am extremely pleased to see that the two of us are evaluating risks very similarly. In general, we have very different risk tolerances and if you and I are in agreement, I suspect we are reasonably correct.

[Smoove_B]

Pandemics are the great equalizers.

[hitbyambulance]

Trump just announced we are "terminating" relations with the World Health Organization because China is controlling it. He is underlining 'worst President' in history every day. I wish we could "terminate" our relationship with him.

[Smoove_B]

HELLO WISCONSIN:

Wisconsin saw a record number of new coronavirus cases and deaths reported in a single day on Wednesday, two weeks after the state’s Supreme Court struck down its statewide stay-at-home order.

The state reported 599 new known COVID-19 cases on Wednesday with 22 known deaths, according to Wisconsin’s Department of Health Services, the highest recorded daily rise since the pandemic began there. As of Wednesday, the state had more than 16,460 known cases and 539 known deaths, according to the department.

The previous record in new coronavirus cases was 528 the week prior.

Wisconsin also issued a record number of test results Wednesday, with more than 10,300 tests conducted, according to the department.

[malchior]

Cue the *more testing* = *more positives* crowd. We're finally seeing the asymptomatic carriers. Blah blah blah.

Trump just announced we are "terminating" relations with the World Health Organization because China is controlling it. He is underlining 'worst President' in history every day. I wish we could "terminate" our relationship with him.

I'm there too but you know I worry what happens if he gets "terminated". Does it kick off the bugaloo? In any case, I just want him gone. Maybe consequences be damned.

[LordMortis]

The funny thing about those upward trends. They don't seem stop until you do something about them. According wordlometer, they reported +512 cases yesterday and +733 so far today. The good new is reports always go down over the weekend, so I'm sure they'll be OK.


Has Zaxxon mentioned we're fucked yet?

[Zaxxon]

I do believe that we are so totally fucked.

[malchior]

Every farmhand at TN farm positive for Covid - 200 in total. WTF.

One farm in Tennessee distributed Covid-19 tests to all of its workers after an employee came down with the virus. It turned out that every single one of its roughly 200 employees had been infected.

In New Jersey, more than 50 workers had the virus at a farm in Gloucester County, adding to nearly 60 who fell ill in neighboring Salem County. Washington state’s Yakima County, an agricultural area that produces apples, cherries, pears and most of the nation’s hops, has the highest per capita infection rate of any county on the West Coast.

The outbreaks underscore the latest pandemic threat to food supply: Farm workers are getting sick and spreading the illness just as the U.S. heads into the peak of the summer produce season. In all likelihood, the cases will keep climbing as more than half a million seasonal employees crowd onto buses to move among farms across the country and get housed together in cramped bunkhouse-style dormitories.

The early outbreaks are already starting to draw comparisons to the infections that plunged the U.S. meat industry into crisis over the past few months. Analysts and experts are warning that thousands of farm workers are vulnerable to contracting the disease.

[Smoove_B]

I worked in one of the richest communities in a north Jersey county and it was filled with farms that relied on migrant labor to operate - I was absolutely blown away to learn it. Even crazier was that these farmers had housing set aside on their property (dorm style apartments) for the migrant workers. They can protect them in the field all they want, but if they're spending their evenings and nights in an overcrowded domicile, COVID-19 is going to spread like wildfire.

[malchior]

I worked in one of the richest communities in a north Jersey county and it was filled with farms that relied on migrant labor to operate - I was absolutely blown away to learn it. Even crazier was that these farmers had housing set aside on their property (dorm style apartments) for the migrant workers. They can protect them in the field all they want, but if they're spending their evenings and nights in an overcrowded domicile, COVID-19 is going to spread like wildfire.

Sort of like my wife's factory. These folks are gloved/masked out on the floor and then sit together in a tiny ass room to eat together. I won't be shocked to find out we were exposed considering about 90% of the workforce has turned over since mid-March. She has her own office but still we've been avoiding everyone until we know for sure.

[Kraken]

Cue the *more testing* = *more positives* crowd. We're finally seeing the asymptomatic carriers. Blah blah blah.

Trump just announced we are "terminating" relations with the World Health Organization because China is controlling it. He is underlining 'worst President' in history every day. I wish we could "terminate" our relationship with him.

I'm there too but you know I worry what happens if he gets "terminated". Does it kick off the bugaloo? In any case, I just want him gone. Maybe consequences be damned.

I want him to live long enough to see the inside of a prison cell.

[Daehawk]

Saw where two workers have tested positive at the bakery where moonpies are made. It struck me that the first cases of COVID at a workplace are not caught at the workplace but brought into it from the out. Then it just spirals from there. You can semi control and protect your employees at work but what they do outside work is what damns everyone.

[LordMortis]

Cue the *more testing* = *more positives* crowd. We're finally seeing the asymptomatic carriers. Blah blah blah.

Trump just announced we are "terminating" relations with the World Health Organization because China is controlling it. He is underlining 'worst President' in history every day. I wish we could "terminate" our relationship with him.

I'm there too but you know I worry what happens if he gets "terminated". Does it kick off the bugaloo? In any case, I just want him gone. Maybe consequences be damned.

I want him to live long enough to see the inside of a prison cell.

It'll never happen but I suppose it's nice to dream. I'd like to see name Trump being a surname universally equated disgrace and derision except to bigots, conservative conspiracy nutjobs, and the conmen who profit from them. I easily can see that happening in my lifetime.

[Unagi]

Each student meeting the teacher for 1 on 1, once a week = may as well just have everyone there.

This is not accurate. Time of exposure is a significant variable in transmission.

You didn't quote the part where I went on to say I knew it wasn't accurate.

My point is that I am trying to minimize the number of games of dice me or my family plays. You can tell me the odds are better in poker than blackjack, but I'm trying to stay out of the casino.

[Kraken]

Cue the *more testing* = *more positives* crowd. We're finally seeing the asymptomatic carriers. Blah blah blah.

Trump just announced we are "terminating" relations with the World Health Organization because China is controlling it. He is underlining 'worst President' in history every day. I wish we could "terminate" our relationship with him.

I'm there too but you know I worry what happens if he gets "terminated". Does it kick off the bugaloo? In any case, I just want him gone. Maybe consequences be damned.

I want him to live long enough to see the inside of a prison cell.

It'll never happen but I suppose it's nice to dream. I'd like to see name Trump being a surname universally equated disgrace and derision except to bigots, conservative conspiracy nutjobs, and the conmen who profit from them. I easily can see that happening in my lifetime.

Yeah, he has a lifetime of experience dodging the law and playing the system and hiding behind fall guys. With so many crimes to choose from, they would nail him eventually...but he's not going to live until eventually.

[Daehawk]

https://newschannel9.com/news/local/fre ... kaMAWqdvg0

Free masks provided by the state of Tennessee treated with registered pesticide.

According to one of our previous stories from early May, TEMA said, "The masks are washable, reusable, and treated with Silvadur, a non-toxic silver antimicrobial good for 25 industrial washes."

A document on the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) website says Silvadur can "cause irreversible eye damage, cause skin burns" and that it is "harmful if swallowed" and "harmful if absorbed through skin."

The EPA document from 2017 also says Silvadur is "harmful if inhaled."

[malchior]

I CAN'T BELIEVE IT /s

[Daehawk]

I think Chattanooga / Hamilton County TN was around over 300 a couple weeks ago. Since reopening stuff they are now at 950 or so. They also arrested some people using paintball guns around the area to damage cars and people and shit. They have warrants for 120. Amazing stupidity. One of the ones arrested tested positive too.

[Defiant]

Even the monkeys are against us.

A troop of monkeys in India attacked a medical official and snatched away blood samples of patients who had tested positive for the novel coronavirus, authorities said on Friday.

Not the Onion

[Kraken]

Even the monkeys are against us.

A troop of monkeys in India attacked a medical official and snatched away blood samples of patients who had tested positive for the novel coronavirus, authorities said on Friday.

Not the Onion

This simulation crossed into the absurd years ago. Restart game.

[Blackhawk]

Even the monkeys are against us.

A troop of monkeys in India attacked a medical official and snatched away blood samples of patients who had tested positive for the novel coronavirus, authorities said on Friday.

Not the Onion

And so begins the Planet of the Apes.

[malchior]

Secret Plan 3: Children of GOP party members will be exempted from school. Instead they will be trained at the "Trump youth" academy. All other children will be dealt with 'appropriately' per Secret Plan 6.

Welp. There is a twitter thread about a child militia in Georgia. I don't know what is going on (ROTC?) but wtf.

[malchior]

Hurray - another chorus - of WHHHHHHY LOCKDOWNS incoming. The article sort of skips the whole part where there seems to be a lot of variance in testing.

[Combustible Lemur]

Secret Plan 3: Children of GOP party members will be exempted from school. Instead they will be trained at the "Trump youth" academy. All other children will be dealt with 'appropriately' per Secret Plan 6.

Welp. There is a twitter thread about a child militia in Georgia. I don't know what is going on (ROTC?) but wtf.

This actually got a solid round of laughter from me. Read a little bit around it and am solidly willing to believe that the national guard unit did not actually trot out twelve year olds in harms way. What made me laugh is how bad its going to be for that tiny guards woman (maybe man?) when she gets back to the office and someone from the unit recognizes themselves in the photo. I'm sure its already obnoxious but getting mistaken for a child in a national meme?! Hahaha hahaha.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[malchior]

[Combustible Lemur]

Saw recently
"imagine if we took as much money as we do equiping cops like soldiers,
And equipped doctors and nurses to be doctors and nurses.

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[Daehawk]

The Earth would be so much better off without us humans to pollute and destroy it and the creatures on it.

[Z-Corn]

The Earth would be so much better off without us humans to pollute and destroy it and the creatures on it.

Oh Bro, don't worry...She is shaking us off Her back like She has had to do through time with other dominate species.

[Paingod]

Trump may finally have the distraction he wants.

He can't blame COVID-19 on "The Left", but he sure as hell can blame rioting on them. With the nation on fire, very few people seem to be thinking much about how we've already rolled up on 105,000 deaths (probably more if you count the improperly assigned "pneumonia" deaths) with 1.8 million confirmed sick, still with inadequate testing or PPE for healthcare workers. The daily positive detection rate seems to be in slow decline, but for how long?

With the disease hitting poor and minority communities hardest, we're going to see a massive uptick from the riots and protests in the coming weeks. I sincerely hope medical services can keep up with new cases rolling in from that in the areas where the protests are biggest.

Just think. Two weeks ago we were wondering how to vote safely and a week ago the president was trying to condemn mail-in-ballots as illegitimate. Now we have multitudes of people so incensed that they're willing to risk their lives in order to be heard.

I hope everyone in the country gets their vote in this fall. If I have to, I'll be standing in line at the city Recreation center to cast my ballot.