Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by wonderpug »

stessier wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:53 pm So nationwide, it seems like we've reached another peak and curves seem to be flattening.

I don't know if I believe it as this change coincides with the switch from reporting to the CDC to reporting to HHS.
"Coincide" is putting it lightly. The trajectory magically changes direction the day they made the reporting change.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:15 pm I didn't think the face shields were as good as a mask (as pointed out, how could they be - they hover above your face), but I was a bit surprised to see that all the people that tested positive were wearing them (and only them). That suggests to me that the micro-air currents that occur around your head during social interaction are crafty enough to allow the virus to go around and under. It could also mean that the virus is way more virulent (few viral particles are needed) than we realize.
It may also be they the face shielders were all working in the same area. It would kind of ruin the study but if a particular job or location was assigned sheilds, rather than a random distribution, there could be issues.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LordMortis »

I was under the impression mask were to keep you from infecting others not so much to keep you from getting infected. It would seem to me the a face shield *should* limit your sending particulates all over the place, not as effectively as a mask but loads better than nothing.

Is this the beginning of changing what we think we know?

(Also, it sucks but I would not trust reporting anymore now that the numbers are being crunched by Trump loyalists, even if I can't see how they would be able to fake wordolmeters data, which pulls from state reports, doesn't it?)
Last edited by LordMortis on Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

LordMortis wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:29 pm I was under the impression mask were to keep you from infecting others not so much to keep you from getting infected. It would seem to me the a face shield *should* limit your sending particulates all over the place, not as effectively as a mask but loads better than nothing.

Is this the beginning of changing what we think we know?
Info has been changing weekly. Wearing masks (anecdotally) seems to help lower transmission rates, yes. There's also anecdotal evidence that there might be protective benefits to wearing one as well. However, the main reason they're now promoted is to stop accidental spread.

With a face shield my assumption was that they're not effective in helping to keep the virus out of the air; it's just redirecting particles down and to the side. Face shields should protect you from the savages that can't cover their faces during a sneeze or cough, but the fact that it seemingly doesn't protect from just being around COVID floating in the air is interesting - mainly because (to me) it suggests the virus has potential to hang out in the air and not just drop to the ground (airborne vs droplet spread). Again, this is also being debated and our overall understanding of those two modes of transmission might completely change in the coming months or years.

I'm still going to use the terms how I was taught until I'm told otherwise. But as Lawbeef also noted, I want to know more about these people. Did they have the same jobs? Did they work in the same area? Lots of questions.

My issue for this week is the insane amount of resources and energy going into trying to create or maintain professional (college?) sport programs right now. If but a fraction of that effort (daily testing for NFL players, really?) went into K-12 schooling, what a difference that could make. But instead, we're focused on making sure sportsball makes money. It makes me feel gross.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Holman »

I've always assumed that face shields were to prevent body fluids (spurting blood, vomit, saliva, etc) from splashing onto the doctor's/nurse's face, as well as to prevent the wearer from touching their face when they have that stuff on their gloves.

That is, I thought they were about bulk liquids, not airborne droplets.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by El Guapo »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:43 pm
LordMortis wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:29 pm I was under the impression mask were to keep you from infecting others not so much to keep you from getting infected. It would seem to me the a face shield *should* limit your sending particulates all over the place, not as effectively as a mask but loads better than nothing.

Is this the beginning of changing what we think we know?
Info has been changing weekly. Wearing masks (anecdotally) seems to help lower transmission rates, yes. There's also anecdotal evidence that there might be protective benefits to wearing one as well. However, the main reason they're now promoted is to stop accidental spread.

With a face shield my assumption was that they're not effective in helping to keep the virus out of the air; it's just redirecting particles down and to the side. Face shields should protect you from the savages that can't cover their faces during a sneeze or cough, but the fact that it seemingly doesn't protect from just being around COVID floating in the air is interesting - mainly because (to me) it suggests the virus has potential to hang out in the air and not just drop to the ground (airborne vs droplet spread). Again, this is also being debated and our overall understanding of those two modes of transmission might completely change in the coming months or years.

I'm still going to use the terms how I was taught until I'm told otherwise. But as Lawbeef also noted, I want to know more about these people. Did they have the same jobs? Did they work in the same area? Lots of questions.

My issue for this week is the insane amount of resources and energy going into trying to create or maintain professional (college?) sport programs right now. If but a fraction of that effort (daily testing for NFL players, really?) went into K-12 schooling, what a difference that could make. But instead, we're focused on making sure sportsball makes money. It makes me feel gross.
Also wouldn't the non-face shield masks probably be N95 masks, since this is in a medical setting? My understanding is that those masks both protect the wearer and the people around them, unlike regular 'civilian' masks, which only protect the people around them (though I would assume that 'regular' masks would have *some* protective effect on the wearer, even if it's minimal).
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by stessier »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:19 pm Also wouldn't the non-face shield masks probably be N95 masks, since this is in a medical setting? My understanding is that those masks both protect the wearer and the people around them, unlike regular 'civilian' masks, which only protect the people around them (though I would assume that 'regular' masks would have *some* protective effect on the wearer, even if it's minimal).
Fun fact - there are two types of N95s: one protects the wearer only (filters incoming air) and one protects both (filters both incoming and outgoing).
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by El Guapo »

stessier wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:21 pm
El Guapo wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:19 pm Also wouldn't the non-face shield masks probably be N95 masks, since this is in a medical setting? My understanding is that those masks both protect the wearer and the people around them, unlike regular 'civilian' masks, which only protect the people around them (though I would assume that 'regular' masks would have *some* protective effect on the wearer, even if it's minimal).
Fun fact - there are two types of N95s: one protects the wearer only (filters incoming air) and one protects both (filters both incoming and outgoing).
Ok, that's helpful. But if the mask people here were wearing either type of N95, then you would expect this difference between them and the face shield people, right?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:19 pmAlso wouldn't the non-face shield masks probably be N95 masks, since this is in a medical setting? My understanding is that those masks both protect the wearer and the people around them, unlike regular 'civilian' masks, which only protect the people around them (though I would assume that 'regular' masks would have *some* protective effect on the wearer, even if it's minimal).
This was a non-medical setting. It doesn't say they were wearing N95 masks, and I'm going to guess they weren't. What I suspect is that they were using clear face shields for servers/waitstaff - people that had direct interactions with customers.

Unrelated, Florida is seeing significant increase in children testing positive for COVID-19:
On July 16, the state had a total of 23,170 children ages 17 and under who had tested positive since the beginning of the pandemic, according to the Florida Department of Health. By July 24, that number jumped to 31,150.
That's a 34% increase in new cases among children in eight days.
And more children in Florida are requiring hospitalization. As of July 16, 246 children had been hospitalized with coronavirus. By July 24, that number had jumped to 303.

That's a 23% increase in child Covid-19 hospitalizations in eight days.

During that same time period, the death toll among children in Florida went from 4 to 5.
This is what happens when you allow for uncontrolled spread. I genuinely feel for FL residents at this point; your state is on fire.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by coopasonic »

I can't wait to see the reaction when the Olympics happen next year and we are told to stay home.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

wonderpug wrote:
"Coincide" is putting it lightly. The trajectory magically changes direction the day they made the reporting change.
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I wonder how much of the plateau is due to limitations in testing capability.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:10 pmI wonder how much of the plateau is due to limitations in testing capability.
It is in the mix - Florida's positivity rate is up over last week but they ran 14% less tests as an example. Insights here.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by YellowKing »

Smoove_B wrote:This is what happens when you allow for uncontrolled spread. I genuinely feel for FL residents at this point; your state is on fire.
One of the more vocal teachers my wife works with who opposes school opening posted a pic of herself with the whole family at Disney World yesterday. :grund:
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Here we go again.

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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More:

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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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pr0ner wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:36 am More:

Yeah, ok. No way anyone in their right mind would submit to that kind of fishing expedition. But say no and he's on the stuff.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by pr0ner »

The only reason she blew up is that Trump Jr and Trump both retweeted her yesterday and her video went massively viral as a result.

Also, Trump Jr. got a 12 hour temp ban from Twitter as a result.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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What a lying idiot. “I know all about those guys on CNN whose names I can’t remember. All of them.”
The body language is also terrible.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Her primary practice address as listed on NPPES is the church address. Is conducting a private business out of a church legal?


Anyway. She's a family medicine practitioner. Not exactly infectious disease or epidemiology. Or pharmacy.

*do not look her up in NPDB, do not look her up in NPDB*
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by pr0ner »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:58 am Her primary practice address as listed on NPPES is the church address. Is conducting a private business out of a church legal?


Anyway. She's a family medicine practitioner. Not exactly infectious disease or epidemiology. Or pharmacy.

*do not look her up in NPDB, do not look her up in NPDB*
Too much demon/witch sex there?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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pr0ner wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:18 am
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:58 am Her primary practice address as listed on NPPES is the church address. Is conducting a private business out of a church legal?


Anyway. She's a family medicine practitioner. Not exactly infectious disease or epidemiology. Or pharmacy.

*do not look her up in NPDB, do not look her up in NPDB*
Too much demon/witch sex there?
Nah, just telling myself to be strong. Not ethical to use NPDB for idle curiosity.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

It's weird how the anti-science, anti-vaccination, anti-doctor crowd is suddenly very supportive of this anti-science, anti-vaccination doctor. I wonder why that is? Is it the demon element?
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:58 amShe's a family medicine practitioner.
Now that she's blown up, how long will that last?

Surely whatever board certified and approved her isn't going to let her stay certified and approved when she's publicly risking people's health.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:03 amBut say no and he's on the stuff.
Say yes he is on the stuff too probably. :)
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Paingod wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:31 am
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:58 amShe's a family medicine practitioner.
Now that she's blown up, how long will that last?

Surely whatever board certified and approved her isn't going to let her stay certified and approved when she's publicly risking people's health.
You don't have to be board certified to practice medicine. It helps but it isn't required. You just need a degree and state license.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:33 amYou just need a degree and state license.
I had no idea the bar was that low for doctors. /shudder
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Paingod wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:39 am
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:33 amYou just need a degree and state license.
I had no idea the bar was that low for doctors. /shudder
The licensing requirements are a pretty high bar. Board certification is an add-on to an already rigorous process.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

malchior wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:42 am
Paingod wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:39 am
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:33 amYou just need a degree and state license.
I had no idea the bar was that low for doctors. /shudder
The licensing requirements are a pretty high bar. Board certification is an add-on to an already rigorous process.
True. But it varies by state.

And renewals aren't difficult so someone could get steadily less competent over time. Mostly you just have to complete continuing medical education. CME credits are a business unto themselves. I qualify for several a year and I'm not an MD and don't even try to get them. Granted, doctors need a lot but they're fairly easy to get.



[EDIT] I should note that you don't get on staff at hospitals, or stay on staff, much anymore without a board cert. So it's not like there are tons of unqualified doctors running around out there. It's also prominently noted in most insurance directories. Just be aware you have to dig a bit deeper than just seeing that someone is a licensed MD/DO.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:44 am
malchior wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:42 am
Paingod wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:39 am
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:33 amYou just need a degree and state license.
I had no idea the bar was that low for doctors. /shudder
The licensing requirements are a pretty high bar. Board certification is an add-on to an already rigorous process.
True. But it varies by state.

And renewals aren't difficult so someone could get steadily less competent over time. Mostly you just have to complete continuing medical education. CME credits are a business unto themselves. I qualify for several a year and I'm not an MD and don't even try to get them. Granted, doctors need a lot but they're fairly easy to get.
Fair enough. That is a problem with almost every professional license/certification system with continuing education requirements since it's hard to track decline in competency over time. However, the system mostly works so I don't think anyone should get the impression it is inadequate or even needs a serious tune up. We have bigger problems than a few quack doctors. This type of quackery should however invite a review of *their* license.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Agreed, see my edit. There isn't a problem with too many unqualified doctors. The problem, in fact, is that most are qualified and held to very high standards so thus we automatically assume that someone being a doctor gives them credibility.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:56 am Agreed, see my edit. There isn't a problem with too many unqualified doctors. The problem, in fact, is that most are qualified and held to very high standards so thus we automatically assume that someone being a doctor gives them credibility.
Yep totally agree.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Kasey Chang »

Paingod wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:31 am
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:58 amShe's a family medicine practitioner.
Now that she's blown up, how long will that last?

Surely whatever board certified and approved her isn't going to let her stay certified and approved when she's publicly risking people's health.
I've seen some bad doctors keep their license when I investigated MLMs. Or they can reapply in like 2 years even if they surrender their license.

Daryl M See used his position as an MD to promote his wife's MLM business, including claiming research that he was not involved in, AND not keeping records on his own patients. He was finally accused by the Medical Board of California in 2006... for something he did in 2003. And it wasn't a YEAR later (in 2007) that he signed a stipulated agreement where he surrendered his license in California with possible reinstatement in 2 years.

There are plenty of antivax doctors keeping their licenses, because strictly speaking they have not endangered the public, merely expressing a personal opinion, even if it's antiscience and antimedicine.

It would not be far to extrapolate that antivax doctors are often the vaccine-preventable-disease hotspots, no matter how they try to clean their officers.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Kasey Chang wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 11:55 am
Paingod wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:31 am
LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:58 amShe's a family medicine practitioner.
Now that she's blown up, how long will that last?

Surely whatever board certified and approved her isn't going to let her stay certified and approved when she's publicly risking people's health.
I've seen some bad doctors keep their license when I investigated MLMs. Or they can reapply in like 2 years even if they surrender their license.

Daryl M See used his position as an MD to promote his wife's MLM business, including claiming research that he was not involved in, AND not keeping records on his own patients. He was finally accused by the Medical Board of California in 2006... for something he did in 2003. And it wasn't a YEAR later (in 2007) that he signed a stipulated agreement where he surrendered his license in California with possible reinstatement in 2 years.
Sure but those are most likely ethical violations. It is important to address them but it doesn't mean they directly harmed or would harm a patient which is the most important concern to the licensing board.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by gilraen »

I...can't...even
Immanuel, a pediatrician and a religious minister, has a history of making bizarre claims about medical topics and other issues. She has often claimed that gynecological problems like cysts and endometriosis are in fact caused by people having sex in their dreams with demons and witches.

She alleges alien DNA is currently used in medical treatments, and that scientists are cooking up a vaccine to prevent people from being religious. And, despite appearing in Washington, D.C. to lobby Congress on Monday, she has said that the government is run in part not by humans but by “reptilians” and other aliens.
Not sure where she passed her residency in the US (since her medical degree is from Nigeria) - might have been in Bronx, NY, from what I read in another article; but I'm sure they'd like their name off of her medical license.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by malchior »

Maybe she was just saner in the past. This is beginning to feel like a mental health thing.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

In the sermon, Immanuel preserved special vitriol for the Magic 8-Ball, a toy that can be shaken up to “reveal” any answer. Immanuel claims the otherwise innocuous Magic 8-Ball was in fact a scheme to get children used to witchcraft.
I can't wait to hear what position she'll be given in the Trump Administration because she sounds super qualified.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Alefroth »

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:44 pm
In the sermon, Immanuel preserved special vitriol for the Magic 8-Ball, a toy that can be shaken up to “reveal” any answer. Immanuel claims the otherwise innocuous Magic 8-Ball was in fact a scheme to get children used to witchcraft.
I can't wait to hear what position she'll be given in the Trump Administration because she sounds super qualified.
I don't know, but her judgement seems bad enough that she'd take it.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

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Image
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Daveman »

So our school district here in south Jersey had their virtual board meeting last night and revealed their plan. This is a Pre-K to 6th district with a Pre-K-3 and a 4-6 building. They're going with a split day, with last names A-L in the AM, M-Z in the PM, 5 days a week. While in school they'll be in the classroom only covering math and English, class sizes around 10 students. For the other half of the day, minus a break for busing and lunch while the school is sanitized, students will be expected to log in for virtual instruction in science, social studies, etc. There is also an option to do all virtual. Parents must choose by Aug.15th and choosing one or the other will lock you in until January when they will evaluate the situation and if need be, let parents change their option.

Highlights from the meeting:

1. The general survey weeks ago asking parents what we wanted was a majority wanting schools open all day as their first option, a partial day being the "overwhelming" majority for the second option. We had voted all virtual :/

2. The superintendent said that as of last Saturday, the County education department had issued a statement that no virtual only options would be approved. The next day, word came down from the state that all districts MUST include a virtual only option.

3. 3 school nurses spoke, complaining that the plan of action they've seen (not shared with us parents) is inadequate and provides less hours of nursing staff on site per day, not more.

4. Lots of parents complaining that the plan doesn't sound like it will provide enough for students in enrichment settings, and coming off as a little over-entitled. Only a few parents complaining about the needs of special education students. I mean, I get it, but everything is thrown off.

5. Lots of parents complaining that their child won't be able to come home for the second half of the day, going to daycare or elsewhere, and possibly not being able to log in for the virtual half of the day.

6. There was one wacky lady asking for all sorts of details, MSDS, etc. about whatever cleaning products were going to be used.

All in all, not what we were hoping for. Our daughter will be in 5th grade and really wants to go back but we're inclined to go all virtual. My wife is a special education teacher and is waiting to hear what her district's plan is before we decide. The good news is that our son who just graduated HS will be all virtual for his 1st semester at college so keeping her home is a workable option for us.

This all sucks.
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Re: Corona Virus: It's a Marathon, Not a Sprint

Post by Smoove_B »

Daveman wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:57 pmThis all sucks.
No one ever listens to the school nurses; they are the unsung heroes of community/public health as far as I'm concerned. When they're saying there's a problem, believe them.

And yes, it absolutely sucks in Jerz. I can't wait to hear how the state is going to approve 570+ different plans. Just like everything else in our state, depending on where you live it will likely dictate the options and outcomes for whatever your local district designs.

Your school's plan sounds similar to ours, though we don't know what the community response has been (that hasn't been communicated). We've been told we need to tell them by this Saturday (I think) if we want full remote for our 9th grader.

The cleaning product information is interesting, mainly because so much of the focus on cleaning right now is currently being referred to as "hygiene theater" in my circles. Yes, hand washing is important but we're dealing with a respiratory virus. "Deep cleaning" and "Weekly sanitizing" of facilities is probably unwarranted as I still don't think there's any evidence that COVID-19 has infected someone from using a doorknob or hand rail at this point. Toilet plume? Maybe. Coughing in someone's face? Likely. Being indoors and sharing air? Likely.

Our governor has doubled down on having schools open and if it weren't for our low-levels of circulating virus I'd be raging against it. Currently, I'm just strongly opposed and mainly for the teachers and adult support staff.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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