Holman wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:53 pm
It's possible that Biden will gain an insurmountable lead on Tuesday, at which point it becomes necessary to earn the Sanders partisans' support.
If this election were Twitter, that would obviously be impossible, but I think the country is actually much bigger than social media.
Sander's said on MTP yesterday that he is friends with Biden and if Biden were the nominee, he would support him completely. At face value, this is a change from when Hillary won the nomination and all he did was rail on about the system being rigged. Hopefully a more conciliatory Bernie works with Biden to hammer out a platform that appeases his supporters enough to jump on the Biden bandwagon and help show a unified front over the coming months.
I think Biden can put back together the Obama coalition and that’s more than enough to beat any Republican they could put forward today.
Add to that I think he will have his pick of qualified people to join his administration who were alienated by the loyalty tests (that I have seen first hand at my agency) and a good shot at turning some seats blue due to the Trump Slump.
A calm, steady, and caring hand on the wheel is what I think a lot of moderates want to see now and maybe a push for more civility.
Politics shouldn’t and isn’t a caustic flame war over Twitter or football like campaign rallies. I’m sick of it all. A boring, well thought out government would be a refreshing change.
I think Biden will have a harder time against Trump than Bernie will, but I hope I'm wrong if he's the nominee.
Additionally, if Biden becomes the nominee, Bernie's job will be to consolidate the progressive movement to become a working part of congress and senate. What I mean by that is, the policy platforms put forward by the Sanders and Warren campaign need to be pushed in an effective manner from progressive democrats going forward. Sanders and Warren needs to keep supporting the movement they've built. This is probably going to be Sanders last run for President if he doesn't win the nomination, but much of his campaign has been about finding new, young progressives to take up the fight.
It's a shame if Sanders doesn't win the nomination, but there's at least a chance of getting some groundwork done for progressive policies under a Biden presidency. I don't think Biden will beat Trump however, even with support from progressives.
But you've seen who's in heaven
Is there anyone in hell?
"Lagom you are a smooth tongued devil, and an opportunistic monster" - OOWW Game Club
Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:30 am
I think Biden will have a harder time against Trump than Bernie will, but I hope I'm wrong if he's the nominee.
I don’t think you’re appreciating how much of a Boogie Man they can turn a ‘socialist’ like Bernie into.
My only major problem with Bernie is just how easily he will be used to motivate the deplorables.
Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:30 am
I think Biden will have a harder time against Trump than Bernie will, but I hope I'm wrong if he's the nominee.
I don’t think you’re appreciating how much of a Boogie Man they can turn a ‘socialist’ like Bernie into.
My only major problem with Bernie is just how easily he will be used to motivate the deplorables.
I don't think Bernie will make anyone cross any line but I do think he will motivate less enthusiastic Trump supporters more enthusiastic.
1) I have no idea if that would change the election game
2) My political compass is so far off that I assumed Sanders would Michigan today and reports make it seem like that is unlikely. I know as much about 2020 as I did 2016.
Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:30 am
I think Biden will have a harder time against Trump than Bernie will, but I hope I'm wrong if he's the nominee.
I don’t think you’re appreciating how much of a Boogie Man they can turn a ‘socialist’ like Bernie into.
My only major problem with Bernie is just how easily he will be used to motivate the deplorables.
I don't think Bernie will make anyone cross any line but I do think he will motivate less enthusiastic Trump supporters more enthusiastic.
1) I have no idea if that would change the election game
2) My political compass is so far off that I assumed Sanders would Michigan today and reports make it seem like that is unlikely. I know as much about 2020 as I did 2016.
The main concerns re: Sanders' electability are:
(1) polling generally shows that most Americans say that they wouldn't vote for a socialist;
(2) Sanders has specific problems in a couple key battleground states - he'd have a ton of trouble in PA due to his favoring a complete fracking ban, and lots in FL due to his Castro-friendly remarks;
(3) Biden is viewed as a moderate and Sanders as a radical, and there are pretty robust results indicating that moderates do better in elections than non-moderates
stessier wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:11 am
Sanders has also shown a complete inability to play nice and build a coalition (at least from what I've seen).
This.
Also, I agree with what was written above that Sanders would be more likely to drive up Republican enthusiasm.
stessier wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:11 am
Sanders has also shown a complete inability to play nice and build a coalition (at least from what I've seen).
Yeah, he seems innately hostile to coalition building and playing politics. Which is good in one way, in a "keeping it real" type of sense. But is also not 100% ideal from someone who is, you know, running a political campaign.
I also don't love that he's preemptively turned down Bloomberg's offer to spend $1 billion supporting the Democratic nominee. So one other plus for Biden is that he'll have $1 billion in spending on his behalf that Sanders wouldn't.
Well that's the beauty of democracy; whoever wins the most votes (states/delegates, whatever) has the strongest argument that he actually has the most support from the people, is the most electable, has the most legitimate claim to leadership, etcetera. If Biden wins, you most certainly should go vote for him in the general even though your favorite candidate lost. Same thing if Sanders manage to eke out a victory against Biden - centrist/moderates need to swallow their pride and vote in the general. That's just how it goes. Talking big on the campaign trail is fine but Trump is too much of a risk, not just for Americans but for the freaking survival of the species, to keep in office in your dangerously oil-dependent country with the largest military and nuclear arsenal in the world. Just... please. We're all walking on egg-shells outside of the US, hoping time will pass quickly enough so we can start dealing with you people again. I mean goddammit, wasn't Bush II enough? You re-elected him as well. And now your plan is to pit another weak centrist (like Hillary/Gore/Kerry) against a raving right-wing populist? Like I said, I hope I'm wrong and Americans are sensible enough to even vote somebody like Biden into office over Trump.
I'll say this: One thing I've noticed when looking at the voting data of your country is that few people actually vote, even in an election as important as this one. The youth vote, for example, which Sanders was hoping for would increase, is roughly what, 50%? If that? In my country (not to boast) the youth vote is around 85%. I mean alright, there's issues like voter suppression and taking time off to go vote and all that, but if Sanders' supporters can't be bothered to get their butts to the polling station come election day, they kind of deserve to lose.
But you've seen who's in heaven
Is there anyone in hell?
"Lagom you are a smooth tongued devil, and an opportunistic monster" - OOWW Game Club
Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:42 pm
I'll say this: One thing I've noticed when looking at the voting data of your country is that few people actually vote, even in an election as important as this one. The youth vote, for example, which Sanders was hoping for would increase, is roughly what, 50%? If that? In my country (not to boast) the youth vote is around 85%. I mean alright, there's issues like voter suppression and taking time off to go vote and all that, but if Sanders' supporters can't be bothered to get their butts to the polling station come election day, they kind of deserve to lose.
I think it's far less than that lol, the numbers I've seen are in the 15-20% range for the last primary. I do think most Americans tend to ignore the primaries for the most part, although even the main event numbers are pretty low, you are right.
Lagom Lite wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:42 pm
Well that's the beauty of democracy; whoever wins the most votes (states/delegates, whatever) has the strongest argument that he actually has the most support from the people, is the most electable
Added emphasis mine.
That might be true if all states were created equal, but they're not. A sack of potatoes with (D) could win a certain percentage of the states, guaranteed, as could a bag of turnips with an (R). It's the states that aren't guaranteed that really matter. A candidate could take a vast majority of the delegates and still have absolutely no chance to win the election, while a candidate that comes in second or third but can win those states has the best shot at the election.
Holman wrote: ↑Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:17 pm
Thought I would put up a running poll now that this is a two-person race.
The idea here is to pick which remaining candidate you think best (not which you think or assume will win regardless). I'd love to hear thoughts on why people think so, as well.
This poll will remain open as I imagine we'll all be wavering a bit.
I don't like Sanders. I'm not sure the right way to express it, but he seems a bit of a weasel to me. He's similar to Trump in that I think Sanders is promising things to people because that's what they want to hear, not because he's actually going to do it. I don't like Biden either but I don't like him less than I don't like Sanders. You could say I'm disappointed that after losing in 2016, THIS two man race is the best we Democrats could do in choosing a candidate?
Sanders has been saying the same things for 40 years. While the details of his proposals are fuzzy, you know exactly what he believes in and will try to achieve. Biden believes he can restore the Obama years. That's not inspiring, and he's just plain wrong anyway. There is no going backward.
I share your disappointment that these two geezers are the last ones standing. Sanders' revolution depends on sweeping vast numbers of new voters into the process, and they aren't showing up. Today is his last chance to prove that he can do it -- he needs a dramatic reversal in MI (which I don't expect). My MI friends and relatives are dividing along the expected lines -- the old people like Biden and the youngsters are banging the drum for Bernie.
Bernie's time was 2016, when voters were rejecting the status quo. Now many just want normalcy back, and they think Biden can bring it.
Bernie's movement isn't moving. Youth turnout in MI was lower than in '16 and his share of working-class males was smaller. It pains me to say that he should drop out...although I sure would enjoy seeing a one-on-one debate.