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Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

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Grifman
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Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Grifman »

Ok, it's pretty obvious that Biden is going to be the Democratic nominee, and the 2020 thread has been largely about the Democratic primary, so I thought I thought I'd start a thread about the final battle of good against evil.

My initial question is how are each of the candidates going to campaign if they are limited to no physical rallies. How will purely television and electronic campaigns work? Who will have the advantage? Assuming the this virus thing continues, Trump will be in front of the nation day after day, sometimes looking presidential, sometimes not. Does that help him? Hurt him? How can Biden break through Trump getting free coverage? How can he campaign effectively with the nation in crisis? Does this crisis in the end perhaps favor Trump?
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Grifman »

I'll note today that Bloomberg has really gone back on what he promised. He initially promised an expensive superpac to take on Trump. Now, he's just donated $18 million to the Democrats and called it a day. What is going on here? Sour grapes? Why has he changed his mind so dramatically?

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/20/81892953 ... atic-party
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by gilraen »

Grifman wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:18 pm
I'll note today that Bloomberg has really gone back on what he promised. He initially promised an expensive superpac to take on Trump. Now, he's just donated $18 million to the Democrats and called it a day. What is going on here? Sour grapes? Why has he changed his mind so dramatically?

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/20/81892953 ... atic-party
I'll wait to pass judgment on that until after the Democratic convention. It's very possible he wants to prop up the DNC so they can finish out the primaries with the minimal amount of damage to the ultimate Dem candidate. Once the general election mode kicks in, it's a whole different game.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Defiant »

If Trump doesn't lose by landslide proportions, considering what we're about to go through, I weep for this country.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by malchior »

Defiant wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:36 pm
If Trump doesn't lose by landslide proportions, considering what we're about to go through, I weep for this country.
He won't. His poll numbers are essentially the same. This nation is politically broken. If I was to liken it to plate tectonics, the two sids are locked together and eventually a fault will develop, it'll slip, and blow it all up. This pandemic might do it but I don't know if anyone can see what the form will be. Perhaps a giant sloar or Stay puft marshmallow man?

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Isgrimnur »

Defiant wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:36 pm
If Trump doesn't lose by landslide proportions, considering what we're about to go through, I weep for this country.
Toute nation a le gouvernement qu'elle mérite.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Kraken »

We haven't had a supervolcano or a good asteroid strike yet, and NK's going to get tired of being ignored. Who would've guessed that the end of civilization would come at us from so many directions at once?

Until now I had thought that a plague and economic crisis would finish off the GOP, but Trump's approval on the crisis is 46/45. Half of our neighbors think he's doing a bang-up job. I can't understand that, so I have no idea how to change their minds. That's going to depend on how events unfold. (Just to be clear, I am NOT rooting for megadeaths and anarchy, even if that's what it would take to remove Trump. I AM rooting for him to die of COVID.)

On topic, Biden is not good at media. If he were, he'd have milked the Ukraine coverage for all it's worth -- which should've been a lot of free media. But he's boring and uninspiring at best. Trump's been busy digging a Biden-shaped grave for months and the Dems are going to give him a Biden to fill it with. At the same time, the GOP is honing its election-stealing tactics and cozying up to foreign powers again. Biden's not going to get a fair fight, and he probably couldn't win even if he did.

Two potential wild cards: Biden's running mate, and his old pal Barack. If he runs with someone exciting, and if Obama campaigns beside him vigorously, they might supply the oomph that Biden lacks.

Make that three: Trump's accelerating deterioration, and the chance that he won't live until November.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by YellowKing »

I think Biden wins handily, even without the pandemic.

All the signs are there. You've got a highly motivated Democratic electorate that's going to show up to give him the boot. Biden's primaries showed that there is a surge of people out there who are looking to get him out of office. He also avoids the baggage of Hillary, and is generally well liked by many - including some who disagree with his politics.

You look at elections we've had since Trump took office and again and again we're seeing candidates flip Trump precincts, sometimes by double digits. Trump can't afford to lose *anything* he won in 2016.

Trump's not going to flip Hillary voters, so he can't count on that to make up the turnout deficit. He splits independents, so he can't lean on them. I doubt we're going to see a significant third party challenge to siphon votes from Biden. So I just don't know where he gets the votes to fight Democratic motivation. He'd have to pull out another squeaky electoral college win facing into a vicious headwind. I'm not saying it's not impossible, but to me the Dems have the advantage in nearly every category.

The one ace in the hole Trump had was the economy, and that's gone. He's out of key indicators that favor re-election.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Kraken »

YK, are you assuming a fair election?

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by malchior »

The flaw in the analysis is thinking that this is a normal election. Everyone keeps trying to use the old model to predict the outcome of what will be the shit showiest shit show election of them all. If and when this COVID-19 business quells temporarily we will be treated to a bevy of Biden family investigations. They are all teed up and ready to go. Considering all the parameters, predicting the election is IMO impossible at the moment even if we had great poll data.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Isgrimnur »

Kraken wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:08 pm
NK's going to get tired of being ignored.
Image

Reuters
North Korea fired an unidentified projectile into the sea off the east coast of the Korean peninsula, Yonhap said on Saturday, citing South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by El Guapo »

gilraen wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:27 pm
Grifman wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:18 pm
I'll note today that Bloomberg has really gone back on what he promised. He initially promised an expensive superpac to take on Trump. Now, he's just donated $18 million to the Democrats and called it a day. What is going on here? Sour grapes? Why has he changed his mind so dramatically?

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/20/81892953 ... atic-party
I'll wait to pass judgment on that until after the Democratic convention. It's very possible he wants to prop up the DNC so they can finish out the primaries with the minimal amount of damage to the ultimate Dem candidate. Once the general election mode kicks in, it's a whole different game.
Most likely explanation is that Bloomberg's an untrustworthy asshole.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Isgrimnur »

El Guapo wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:12 pm
gilraen wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:27 pm
Grifman wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:18 pm
I'll note today that Bloomberg has really gone back on what he promised. He initially promised an expensive superpac to take on Trump. Now, he's just donated $18 million to the Democrats and called it a day. What is going on here? Sour grapes? Why has he changed his mind so dramatically?

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/20/81892953 ... atic-party
I'll wait to pass judgment on that until after the Democratic convention. It's very possible he wants to prop up the DNC so they can finish out the primaries with the minimal amount of damage to the ultimate Dem candidate. Once the general election mode kicks in, it's a whole different game.
Most likely explanation is that Bloomberg's an untrustworthy asshole.
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Kraken »

El Guapo wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:12 pm
gilraen wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:27 pm
Grifman wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:18 pm
I'll note today that Bloomberg has really gone back on what he promised. He initially promised an expensive superpac to take on Trump. Now, he's just donated $18 million to the Democrats and called it a day. What is going on here? Sour grapes? Why has he changed his mind so dramatically?

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/20/81892953 ... atic-party
I'll wait to pass judgment on that until after the Democratic convention. It's very possible he wants to prop up the DNC so they can finish out the primaries with the minimal amount of damage to the ultimate Dem candidate. Once the general election mode kicks in, it's a whole different game.
Most likely explanation is that Bloomberg's an untrustworthy asshole.
He will buy it for Biden if he can. He can't be seen doing that while Sanders is still in.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Unagi »

I imagine he's lost a little money in the last couple weeks here too.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by YellowKing »

Kraken wrote:YK, are you assuming a fair election?
I'm assuming about the same level of fairness as 2016. I think that's best case scenario.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by malchior »

If Biden continues to have weeks like this one it won't matter anyway.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Kraken »

YellowKing wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:59 pm
Kraken wrote:YK, are you assuming a fair election?
I'm assuming about the same level of fairness as 2016. I think that's best case scenario.
That was before Putin knew that his long-shot gambit would pay off, and before Trump knew that there would be no consequences for accepting his aid.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Kraken »

malchior wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:09 pm
If Biden continues to have weeks like this one it won't matter anyway.
Did he say/do something that I missed, or just fade into irrelevance?

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by malchior »

Kraken wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:34 pm
malchior wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:09 pm
If Biden continues to have weeks like this one it won't matter anyway.
Did he say/do something that I missed, or just fade into irrelevance?
Faded out. He is invisible.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Kraken »

malchior wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:46 pm
Kraken wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:34 pm
malchior wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:09 pm
If Biden continues to have weeks like this one it won't matter anyway.
Did he say/do something that I missed, or just fade into irrelevance?
Faded out. He is invisible.
He really sucks at manipulating the media, which is Trump's superpower.

Bernie needs to buckle quickly, and Biden needs to tell him whatever he wants to hear to do that.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

I’m not sure what you would expect from Biden this week. The news is dominated by the Coronavirus; anything he said or did would be a small blip.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by malchior »

Ralph-Wiggum wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:13 pm
I’m not sure what you would expect from Biden this week. The news is dominated by the Coronavirus; anything he said or did would be a small blip.
He is a Presidential candidate so I expect him to be visible. Bernie was *far* more visible and Joe needs to avoid stories like this. Still I agree it is likely it'll be hard to break in. But this is a big crisis and he is running for a big person seat. He needs to deliver ideas. In fact, I'll go further and say that Pelosi and Schumer have been lying down on the job too. They've been periodically appearing on friendly networks but they've been letting Trump and Mitch and even Andrew Cuomo to drive the discussion. An example about how most Democrats are holistically bad at politics. The administration may be flailing around hopeless but they've kept their hands on the wheel without much challenge. The Democrats had many opportunities to seize the story and provide leadership. They largely haven't.

Biden actually did a good job at an example of this actually. When Trump was fumbling around 2 weeks ago, Biden went on all the stations and gave a speech on 'his plan', and Trump actually shaped up. That's leadership. Then Joe went back into hibernation and Trump has continued going on tv everyday and acting a fool without a response. That said, it appears that someone literally must have been yelling at Joe to get it together because according to Politico he plans to start holding "shadow" Coronavirus briefings. I hope that is the start of a turn around. It's luckily still early but this isn't a good sign. This election is going to get so, so much worse and these guys really need to have their game together.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Grifman »

malchior wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:08 am
Ralph-Wiggum wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:13 pm
I’m not sure what you would expect from Biden this week. The news is dominated by the Coronavirus; anything he said or did would be a small blip.
He is a Presidential candidate so I expect him to be visible. Bernie was *far* more visible and Joe needs to avoid stories like this. Still I agree it is likely it'll be hard to break in. But this is a big crisis and he is running for a big person seat. He needs to deliver ideas. In fact, I'll go further and say that Pelosi and Schumer have been lying down on the job too. They've been periodically appearing on friendly networks but they've been letting Trump and Mitch and even Andrew Cuomo to drive the discussion. An example about how most Democrats are holistically bad at politics. The administration may be flailing around hopeless but they've kept their hands on the wheel without much challenge. The Democrats had many opportunities to seize the story and provide leadership. They largely haven't.

Biden actually did a good job at an example of this actually. When Trump was fumbling around 2 weeks ago, Biden went on all the stations and gave a speech on 'his plan', and Trump actually shaped up. That's leadership. Then Joe went back into hibernation and Trump has continued going on tv everyday and acting a fool without a response. That said, it appears that someone literally must have been yelling at Joe to get it together because according to Politico he plans to start holding "shadow" Coronavirus briefings. I hope that is the start of a turn around. It's luckily still early but this isn't a good sign. This election is going to get so, so much worse and these guys really need to have their game together.
I think you are being a bit unfair and unrealistic. What we are going through is unprecedented. People/campaigns are just now realizing what the world is going to be like for the next few months. Things need to be adjusted, calibrated. How do you campaign in this environment? Will you come off a tone deaf given the crisis the country/world are in? How do you remain relevant? What can you do or say without being too political given the current situation? I don't think anyone knows what the correct answer is.
Tolerance is the virtue of the man without convictions. – G.K. Chesterton

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Unagi »

Personally , I’ve not paid any attention to anything but CRV19.

Not really sure I want Biden, Trump, or Sanders saying too much right now.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by malchior »

Grifman wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:08 am
malchior wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:08 am
Ralph-Wiggum wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:13 pm
I’m not sure what you would expect from Biden this week. The news is dominated by the Coronavirus; anything he said or did would be a small blip.
He is a Presidential candidate so I expect him to be visible. Bernie was *far* more visible and Joe needs to avoid stories like this. Still I agree it is likely it'll be hard to break in. But this is a big crisis and he is running for a big person seat. He needs to deliver ideas. In fact, I'll go further and say that Pelosi and Schumer have been lying down on the job too. They've been periodically appearing on friendly networks but they've been letting Trump and Mitch and even Andrew Cuomo to drive the discussion. An example about how most Democrats are holistically bad at politics. The administration may be flailing around hopeless but they've kept their hands on the wheel without much challenge. The Democrats had many opportunities to seize the story and provide leadership. They largely haven't.

Biden actually did a good job at an example of this actually. When Trump was fumbling around 2 weeks ago, Biden went on all the stations and gave a speech on 'his plan', and Trump actually shaped up. That's leadership. Then Joe went back into hibernation and Trump has continued going on tv everyday and acting a fool without a response. That said, it appears that someone literally must have been yelling at Joe to get it together because according to Politico he plans to start holding "shadow" Coronavirus briefings. I hope that is the start of a turn around. It's luckily still early but this isn't a good sign. This election is going to get so, so much worse and these guys really need to have their game together.
I think you are being a bit unfair and unrealistic.
It isn't unfair. He is running for President. Not knowing how to react is exactly what we are dealing with in Trump. It isn't unfair or unrealistic to expect him to rise above this. Bernie raised $2M for coronavirus victims and got good press. he is running social media campaigns. I definitely don't support Bernie but he at least understands optics. If you haven't read those two stories I recommend them. They frame out the problem that Biden is facing.
What we are going through is unprecedented. People/campaigns are just now realizing what the world is going to be like for the next few months. Things need to be adjusted, calibrated. How do you campaign in this environment? Will you come off a tone deaf given the crisis the country/world are in? How do you remain relevant? What can you do or say without being too political given the current situation? I don't think anyone knows what the correct answer is.
See above. You lead. The appearance of hiding in his living room fair or not while the world fills the void is not leadership. Call that unfair but again he is getting negative press already about this. Like I said this is earlier, it might not matter but he has to be better than this.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by El Guapo »

What specifically do you want Biden to do, other than "be better" and "lead"? In other words, what specific actions do you want that he is not doing?

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Kraken »

El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:46 am
What specifically do you want Biden to do, other than "be better" and "lead"? In other words, what specific actions do you want that he is not doing?
Maybe stake an opinion on the $2 trillion fight happening in Congress right now? If Biden has one, it didn't register. He could be sharing Pelosi's headlines.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by El Guapo »

Kraken wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:39 am
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:46 am
What specifically do you want Biden to do, other than "be better" and "lead"? In other words, what specific actions do you want that he is not doing?
Maybe stake an opinion on the $2 trillion fight happening in Congress right now? If Biden has one, it didn't register. He could be sharing Pelosi's headlines.
He has. He also has released a Coronavirus plan, and will begin regular coronavirus broadcasts.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by El Guapo »

I'm sure his response could be better, almost by definition. But sometimes "he should do stuff, but better" type criticism gets a little tedious.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:27 am
I'm sure his response could be better, almost by definition. But sometimes "he should do stuff, but better" type criticism gets a little tedious.
The reflexive defenses of the candidate are pretty tedious too. He was invisible for almost a week as the leading candidate. I don't get how thinking that's worth commenting on is a controversial opinion. He was just starting to get bad coverage because he was obviously missing from the discussion. I'll stress again that it is only a yellow flag at this point. That said, I'm curious to see how his shadow briefings go.
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:46 am
What specifically do you want Biden to do, other than "be better" and "lead"? In other words, what specific actions do you want that he is not doing?
Here are a couple of ideas off the top of my head - some are low effort/cost:

Get on tv regularly - Trump is literally running a campaign rally every day on captive networks who won't turn him off. He needs to counter act that. The shadow briefings hopefully will help with this. He needs to be focused and on point for each one to contrast Trump's style.

Virtual rallies - Find segments or cross-segments of folks that his campaign wants to target. Get them to sit in front of a laptop and hold a virtual town hall with them. Put it on Twitch if he has to. Partner with a network. Whatever they have to do.

Put together a 30 - 60 second spot once or twice a day and speak to the public about his vision. Blast it out on twitter, Facebook, everywhere.

Anyway, you get the idea. Lead. You can't lead if you're invisible.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by pr0ner »

El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:27 am
I'm sure his response could be better, almost by definition. But sometimes "he should do stuff, but better" type criticism gets a little tedious.
+1
Hodor.

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by Scraper »

I'm calling Florida for Biden right now. This is based solely on Primary voting numbers. If you look at votes received Biden lost to Trump by just 77,000 votes. Trump lost about 70,000 votes to other republicans. Biden lost about 640,000 votes to other democrat nominees. Assuming all 70K Republican votes go to Trump, Biden still only needs to win about 30% of those 640,000 votes to beat Trump in November (Assuming the other 70% don't vote for Trump).

There's a lot of assumptions there, but overall the party vote totals for the Florida primary are heavily in Biden's favor.
FTE

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:36 am
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:27 am
I'm sure his response could be better, almost by definition. But sometimes "he should do stuff, but better" type criticism gets a little tedious.
The reflexive defenses of the candidate are pretty tedious too. He was invisible for almost a week as the leading candidate. I don't get how thinking that's worth commenting on is a controversial opinion. He was just starting to get bad coverage because he was obviously missing from the discussion. I'll stress again that it is only a yellow flag at this point. That said, I'm curious to see how his shadow briefings go.
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:46 am
What specifically do you want Biden to do, other than "be better" and "lead"? In other words, what specific actions do you want that he is not doing?
Here are a couple of ideas off the top of my head - some are low effort/cost:

Get on tv regularly - Trump is literally running a campaign rally every day on captive networks who won't turn him off. He needs to counter act that. The shadow briefings hopefully will help with this. He needs to be focused and on point for each one to contrast Trump's style.

Virtual rallies - Find segments or cross-segments of folks that his campaign wants to target. Get them to sit in front of a laptop and hold a virtual town hall with them. Put it on Twitch if he has to. Partner with a network. Whatever they have to do.

Put together a 30 - 60 second spot once or twice a day and speak to the public about his vision. Blast it out on twitter, Facebook, everywhere.

Anyway, you get the idea. Lead. You can't lead if you're invisible.
This is helpful. Mainly I find generic "he should do better" type criticism to be not all that useful, vs. specific ideas / proposals on what he should be doing. Though good luck getting people to log into a virtual political rally.

I do wonder about what's the best way to run a political campaign under COVID restrictions, as the worst case scenario would be Biden getting a severe (possibly even fatal) case of coronavirus. It seems like it should be doable to hold campaign rallies from the perspective of Biden's safety, as long as he has a separate entrance to wherever and the stage is sufficiently far from supporters. The issue would be that it would be wildly unsafe for the attendees, which (1) risks a bad turnout that would generate negative media stories; and (2) is irresponsible from the perspective of public safety.

BUT on the other hand staying at home in Delaware and doing whatever digitally I think creates the impression of weakness and hiding, which is likely to generate negative media stories like we've seen this week. But I'm honestly unsure what you do that's safe and is likely to generate good media coverage. Biden does have a lot of Obama administration pandemic people on his staff - I wonder whether it would do good to have them start interfacing with governors, corporations, etc. to act as sort of a shadow government in response to the pandemic. Is that helpful, or is that just going to generate more confusion?

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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by El Guapo »

Scraper wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:56 am
I'm calling Florida for Biden right now. This is based solely on Primary voting numbers. If you look at votes received Biden lost to Trump by just 77,000 votes. Trump lost about 70,000 votes to other republicans. Biden lost about 640,000 votes to other democrat nominees. Assuming all 70K Republican votes go to Trump, Biden still only needs to win about 30% of those 640,000 votes to beat Trump in November (Assuming the other 70% don't vote for Trump).

There's a lot of assumptions there, but overall the party vote totals for the Florida primary are heavily in Biden's favor.
Calling Florida for Biden already is going a bit far (not sure exactly how serious you are there), BUT I will say that I found the last primary results kind of comforting, and tending to support Biden's theory for his candidacy. In 2016 Clinton had a commanding lead, but large segments of voters flocked to Sanders late in the race less because of Sanders, and more out of strident opposition to Clinton. For whatever reason that hasn't happened with Biden in 2020, as voters (including areas that went heavily for Sanders in 2020 and that had above average Trump support in the general) went for him. So whereas Clinton's lead narrowed somewhat after she became the inevitable nominee, Biden's has grown.

Not sure whether that was misogyny or ingrown Clinton-hatred (or both), but it seems like Biden should have a pretty good shot in November (assuming a fair election for now).

malchior
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:56 am
malchior wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:36 am
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:27 am
I'm sure his response could be better, almost by definition. But sometimes "he should do stuff, but better" type criticism gets a little tedious.
The reflexive defenses of the candidate are pretty tedious too. He was invisible for almost a week as the leading candidate. I don't get how thinking that's worth commenting on is a controversial opinion. He was just starting to get bad coverage because he was obviously missing from the discussion. I'll stress again that it is only a yellow flag at this point. That said, I'm curious to see how his shadow briefings go.
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:46 am
What specifically do you want Biden to do, other than "be better" and "lead"? In other words, what specific actions do you want that he is not doing?
Here are a couple of ideas off the top of my head - some are low effort/cost:

Get on tv regularly - Trump is literally running a campaign rally every day on captive networks who won't turn him off. He needs to counter act that. The shadow briefings hopefully will help with this. He needs to be focused and on point for each one to contrast Trump's style.

Virtual rallies - Find segments or cross-segments of folks that his campaign wants to target. Get them to sit in front of a laptop and hold a virtual town hall with them. Put it on Twitch if he has to. Partner with a network. Whatever they have to do.

Put together a 30 - 60 second spot once or twice a day and speak to the public about his vision. Blast it out on twitter, Facebook, everywhere.

Anyway, you get the idea. Lead. You can't lead if you're invisible.
This is helpful. Mainly I find generic "he should do better" type criticism to be not all that useful, vs. specific ideas / proposals on what he should be doing. Though good luck getting people to log into a virtual political rally.
This a problem but eventually they'll have to try. I could think they start this by first partnering with a friendly network - MSNBC comes to mind. They preface it strongly as an experiment, etc. They may fail to launch at first but they have to figure it out in case this event goes long.
I do wonder about what's the best way to run a political campaign under COVID restrictions, as the worst case scenario would be Biden getting a severe (possibly even fatal) case of coronavirus. It seems like it should be doable to hold campaign rallies from the perspective of Biden's safety, as long as he has a separate entrance to wherever and the stage is sufficiently far from supporters. The issue would be that it would be wildly unsafe for the attendees, which (1) risks a bad turnout that would generate negative media stories; and (2) is irresponsible from the perspective of public safety.
This is a non-starter. They won't consider this for both these reasons.
BUT on the other hand staying at home in Delaware and doing whatever digitally I think creates the impression of weakness and hiding, which is likely to generate negative media stories like we've seen this week. But I'm honestly unsure what you do that's safe and is likely to generate good media coverage. Biden does have a lot of Obama administration pandemic people on his staff - I wonder whether it would do good to have them start interfacing with governors, corporations, etc. to act as sort of a shadow government in response to the pandemic. Is that helpful, or is that just going to generate more confusion?
This is the model I think they'll adopt. Mostly in the face of a continuing inept federal response. I don't think anything can be more confusing than the Federal response. Talking to actual experts to advise them, even if it doesn't help the election directly will still help people in the long run. And if successes emerge then Biden can leverage them politically. Competent action will likely stand out.

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stessier
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Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by stessier »

malchior wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:17 am
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:56 am
malchior wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:36 am
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:27 am
I'm sure his response could be better, almost by definition. But sometimes "he should do stuff, but better" type criticism gets a little tedious.
The reflexive defenses of the candidate are pretty tedious too. He was invisible for almost a week as the leading candidate. I don't get how thinking that's worth commenting on is a controversial opinion. He was just starting to get bad coverage because he was obviously missing from the discussion. I'll stress again that it is only a yellow flag at this point. That said, I'm curious to see how his shadow briefings go.
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:46 am
What specifically do you want Biden to do, other than "be better" and "lead"? In other words, what specific actions do you want that he is not doing?
Here are a couple of ideas off the top of my head - some are low effort/cost:

Get on tv regularly - Trump is literally running a campaign rally every day on captive networks who won't turn him off. He needs to counter act that. The shadow briefings hopefully will help with this. He needs to be focused and on point for each one to contrast Trump's style.

Virtual rallies - Find segments or cross-segments of folks that his campaign wants to target. Get them to sit in front of a laptop and hold a virtual town hall with them. Put it on Twitch if he has to. Partner with a network. Whatever they have to do.

Put together a 30 - 60 second spot once or twice a day and speak to the public about his vision. Blast it out on twitter, Facebook, everywhere.

Anyway, you get the idea. Lead. You can't lead if you're invisible.
This is helpful. Mainly I find generic "he should do better" type criticism to be not all that useful, vs. specific ideas / proposals on what he should be doing. Though good luck getting people to log into a virtual political rally.
This a problem but eventually they'll have to try. I could think they start this by first partnering with a friendly network - MSNBC comes to mind. They preface it strongly as an experiment, etc. They may fail to launch at first but they have to figure it out in case this event goes long.
Good luck figuring out how to keep the trolls out. If it's just Biden talking, it could work but will be boring. If he wants to interact, it's doomed to fail.
I require a reminder as to why raining arcane destruction is not an appropriate response to all of life's indignities. - Vaarsuvius
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malchior
Posts: 12143
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by malchior »

stessier wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:55 am
malchior wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:17 am
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:56 am
malchior wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:36 am
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:27 am
I'm sure his response could be better, almost by definition. But sometimes "he should do stuff, but better" type criticism gets a little tedious.
The reflexive defenses of the candidate are pretty tedious too. He was invisible for almost a week as the leading candidate. I don't get how thinking that's worth commenting on is a controversial opinion. He was just starting to get bad coverage because he was obviously missing from the discussion. I'll stress again that it is only a yellow flag at this point. That said, I'm curious to see how his shadow briefings go.
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:46 am
What specifically do you want Biden to do, other than "be better" and "lead"? In other words, what specific actions do you want that he is not doing?
Here are a couple of ideas off the top of my head - some are low effort/cost:

Get on tv regularly - Trump is literally running a campaign rally every day on captive networks who won't turn him off. He needs to counter act that. The shadow briefings hopefully will help with this. He needs to be focused and on point for each one to contrast Trump's style.

Virtual rallies - Find segments or cross-segments of folks that his campaign wants to target. Get them to sit in front of a laptop and hold a virtual town hall with them. Put it on Twitch if he has to. Partner with a network. Whatever they have to do.

Put together a 30 - 60 second spot once or twice a day and speak to the public about his vision. Blast it out on twitter, Facebook, everywhere.

Anyway, you get the idea. Lead. You can't lead if you're invisible.
This is helpful. Mainly I find generic "he should do better" type criticism to be not all that useful, vs. specific ideas / proposals on what he should be doing. Though good luck getting people to log into a virtual political rally.
This a problem but eventually they'll have to try. I could think they start this by first partnering with a friendly network - MSNBC comes to mind. They preface it strongly as an experiment, etc. They may fail to launch at first but they have to figure it out in case this event goes long.
Good luck figuring out how to keep the trolls out. If it's just Biden talking, it could work but will be boring. If he wants to interact, it's doomed to fail.
Sounds like a moderation problem. They do this live, right? I don't envision it as a free for all reddit AMA.

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El Guapo
Posts: 35066
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Location: Boston

Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:56 am
stessier wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:55 am
malchior wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:17 am
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:56 am
malchior wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:36 am
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:27 am
I'm sure his response could be better, almost by definition. But sometimes "he should do stuff, but better" type criticism gets a little tedious.
The reflexive defenses of the candidate are pretty tedious too. He was invisible for almost a week as the leading candidate. I don't get how thinking that's worth commenting on is a controversial opinion. He was just starting to get bad coverage because he was obviously missing from the discussion. I'll stress again that it is only a yellow flag at this point. That said, I'm curious to see how his shadow briefings go.
El Guapo wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:46 am
What specifically do you want Biden to do, other than "be better" and "lead"? In other words, what specific actions do you want that he is not doing?
Here are a couple of ideas off the top of my head - some are low effort/cost:

Get on tv regularly - Trump is literally running a campaign rally every day on captive networks who won't turn him off. He needs to counter act that. The shadow briefings hopefully will help with this. He needs to be focused and on point for each one to contrast Trump's style.

Virtual rallies - Find segments or cross-segments of folks that his campaign wants to target. Get them to sit in front of a laptop and hold a virtual town hall with them. Put it on Twitch if he has to. Partner with a network. Whatever they have to do.

Put together a 30 - 60 second spot once or twice a day and speak to the public about his vision. Blast it out on twitter, Facebook, everywhere.

Anyway, you get the idea. Lead. You can't lead if you're invisible.
This is helpful. Mainly I find generic "he should do better" type criticism to be not all that useful, vs. specific ideas / proposals on what he should be doing. Though good luck getting people to log into a virtual political rally.
This a problem but eventually they'll have to try. I could think they start this by first partnering with a friendly network - MSNBC comes to mind. They preface it strongly as an experiment, etc. They may fail to launch at first but they have to figure it out in case this event goes long.
Good luck figuring out how to keep the trolls out. If it's just Biden talking, it could work but will be boring. If he wants to interact, it's doomed to fail.
Sounds like a moderation problem. They do this live, right? I don't envision it as a free for all reddit AMA.
I'm somewhat skeptical that that's going to generate a lot of buzz and/or positive media coverage. I really think it's going to be hard to drive (virtual) attendance, particularly among uncommitted voters (presumably you're less worried about your committed partisans, though it doesn't hurt to reach them either). You could easily wind up with a couple negative stories, if either there's a technology snafu (OLD MAN BIDEN CAN'T WORK TECHNOLOGY), or if Biden stumbles over something at any point in any of his talks. It's harder to see the positive CNN stories that would come out of it, except maybe with careful branding (21st Century Fireside Chats, or something like that).

FWIW I do think that setting up the Biden campaign as a one-stop shop for everyone looking for straight answers and advice on coronavirus is helpful. Helps reinforce Biden's "ready on day one" / the adult in the room type messaging. Plus if you help reporters get information, and become a resource to them, they're more likely to report on you and do so favorably, I would imagine.

But I don't think that there are a lot of easy answers or silver bullets here, campaign-wise.

malchior
Posts: 12143
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:58 pm

Re: Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

Post by malchior »

No silver bullets but better to work out the issues now than later. He's on now. Seems to be going well so far. It's a good start.

Edit: I think that went well and it allowed him to coordinate message with the Dems in Congress which is a nice synergy.

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