Remus West wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 3:53 pm
I'm seeing stories of trump expanding his base in the African American and Latino communities. Mostly their men. I'm floored by it but terrified it is true.
With Latino communities, my understanding is that many conservative Hispanics (particularily Cuban-Americans in Florida) were skeptical of Trump in 2016, but now aren't.
Remus West wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 3:53 pmI'm seeing stories of trump expanding his base in the African American and Latino communities. Mostly their men. I'm floored by it but terrified it is true.
It appears to be true here in Texas. And it's not really as strange as you might think. I know lots of Democrats view all "brown" people as built-in "D" voters, but the truth is Hispanics in Texas are generally a very conservative lot, and it's not unusual for them to vote R when they vote. (which they don't always do)
It's not inconceivable that Hispanic men push Trump over the top in Texas. But honestly, it's no reason for terror. Biden does NOT need Texas and if Trump is in trouble here, then he's almost certainly in much worse trouble elsewhere.
A crowded Trump rally in steamy Tampa, Florida, on Thursday resulted in 17 attendees needing medical attention, with a dozen being taken to the hospital, fire officials told NBC News.
Trump spoke for just under an hour in 87-degree heat at the event outside of Raymond James Stadium to a largely mask-less group of supporters.
RunningMn9 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:46 pm
For Trump to win, he has to have expanded his base. Did the last four years do that? I don’t think it did. I think we look at ballot data and see that votes are coming in from Dems or Reps or Independents, and making judgements.
I voted in NJ, and if someone looked at my party affiliation, what would they see? A vote from a registered Republican in conservative Warren County NJ. They are probably going to misinterpret my vote.
I think that Trump’s reign of terror narrowed his base, rather than expanded it. I think the Biden has expanded Clinton’s base, rather than narrowed it. I don’t think the Biden +17 poll in WI is accurate, but I don’t think it’s off by 18+ points either.
I think that the GOP should be really concerned that the early voting in TX has already surpassed the total vote count on 2016.
I'm seeing stories of trump expanding his base in the African American and Latino communities. Mostly their men. I'm floored by it but terrified it is true.
I heard an interview with an organizer from Lucha, a Latinx get out the vote organization. He said he's seen Trump peel off some male votes and said part of it is because of Trump's perceived masculinity.
Remus West wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 3:53 pm
I'm seeing stories of trump expanding his base in the African American and Latino communities. Mostly their men. I'm floored by it but terrified it is true.
With Latino communities, my understanding is that many conservative Hispanics (particularily Cuban-Americans in Florida) were skeptical of Trump in 2016, but now aren't.
That at least kind of makes sense.
With AA voters did trump have anywhere to go but up? I think he got less than 10% support in that demographic in '16, so i would think it would be more surprising if he didn't improve that at least marginally. OTOH, the Latino demographic does concern me in Texas. I have many friends, neighbors, and coworkers who could conceivably fall into that group (honestly I'm not even sure what the defining chacteristcs are for 'Latino') and a number of them are voting trump. But the area of Texas with the greatest concentration of Latino voters is the one hardest hit by the pandemic, the Rio Grande valley. And voter turnout in that area has been relatively low, certainly compared to the historically high numbers of voters we're seeing in DFW, Houston, and Austin. That concerns me bc I feel like if the Dems were ever going to firmly have that demographic, it would be this year.
OR
cry in a corner that the world has come to a point where you have to pay for imaginary shit.
GungHo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:44 pm
With AA voters did trump have anywhere to go but up? I think he got less than 10% support in that demographic in '16, so i would think it would be more surprising if he didn't improve that at least marginally.
He got 8%, which is the least a Republican candidate has gotten (since we've had exit polling) except for two - McCain and Romney.
I wouldn't expect Biden to do as well as Obama, though I would have hoped (given him being the VP for the Obama), he'd have been able to do about the same as Clinton.
RunningMn9 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:46 pm
For Trump to win, he has to have expanded his base. Did the last four years do that? I don’t think it did.
I'm not so sure that all the "base" voted last time. I don't see every torch wielding Nazi at Charlottesville or every Qanon nutcase as your typical active participant in the system. Will they vote this time? Probably. Did they last time? Not clear.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
A crowded Trump rally in steamy Tampa, Florida, on Thursday resulted in 17 attendees needing medical attention, with a dozen being taken to the hospital, fire officials told NBC News.
Trump spoke for just under an hour in 87-degree heat at the event outside of Raymond James Stadium to a largely mask-less group of supporters.
RunningMn9 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:46 pm
For Trump to win, he has to have expanded his base. Did the last four years do that? I don’t think it did. I think we look at ballot data and see that votes are coming in from Dems or Reps or Independents, and making judgements.
I voted in NJ, and if someone looked at my party affiliation, what would they see? A vote from a registered Republican in conservative Warren County NJ. They are probably going to misinterpret my vote.
I think that Trump’s reign of terror narrowed his base, rather than expanded it. I think the Biden has expanded Clinton’s base, rather than narrowed it. I don’t think the Biden +17 poll in WI is accurate, but I don’t think it’s off by 18+ points either.
I think that the GOP should be really concerned that the early voting in TX has already surpassed the total vote count on 2016.
I'm seeing stories of trump expanding his base in the African American and Latino communities. Mostly their men. I'm floored by it but terrified it is true.
I heard an interview with an organizer from Lucha, a Latinx get out the vote organization. He said he's seen Trump peel off some male votes and said part of it is because of Trump's perceived masculinity.
I was going to suggest "toxic masculinity" but was leery of stereotyping, so I'm glad someone else did it for me.
RunningMn9 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:46 pm
For Trump to win, he has to have expanded his base. Did the last four years do that? I don’t think it did.
I'm not so sure that all the "base" voted last time. I don't see every torch wielding Nazi at Charlottesville or every Qanon nutcase as your typical active participant in the system. Will they vote this time? Probably. Did they last time? Not clear.
The nonvoting Trump base that finally came to see him as their hero after 2016 had a chance to come out in 2018 and in other special elections. Apparently they don't amount to much.
A buddy of mine that is a big Lincoln Project supporter also pointed out that there will be a not-insignificant number of registered Republicans voting for Biden this year. I'm guessing certainly more than registered Republicans who voted for Hillary in 2016, and probably magnitudes more than registered Dems voting for Trump.
I've pegged my anxiety dial so I'm paring back my news exposure until Election Day. Still scanning headlines but not delving into every new poll and court maneuver. I have you guys to do that for me.
Smoove_B wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 6:55 pm
I guess I'll post this here? This is America.
Walmart has temporarily pulled ammunition and guns off its shelves ahead of any possible civil unrest that could take place following next week’s election
Walmart on Friday reversed its decision to take guns and ammunition from store displays in response to concerns about "isolated civil unrest."
The country’s largest retailer had asked all of its stores to move firearms and ammunition to a secure backroom area of the store out of “an abundance of caution” on Thursday, Walmart spokesperson Kory Lundberg told NBC News in an email.
But, “as the current incidents have remained geographically isolated, we have made the decision to begin returning these products to the sales floor today,” he said Friday.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
The Trump appointee who steered a $300 million taxpayer-funded ad campaign to "defeat despair" about the coronavirus privately pitched a different theme last month: "Helping the President will Help the Country."
That proposal, which came in a meeting between Trump administration officials and campaign contractors, is among documents obtained by the House Oversight Committee that further illustrate how political considerations shaped the massive campaign as officials rushed to get public service announcements on the air before Election Day.
..
Although Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar has since ordered a review of the campaign — which two HHS officials told POLITICO is no longer slated to run before the election, if at all — House Oversight leaders said that the administration had failed to comply with repeated demands to produce separate, internal documents related to the campaign.
“Your failure to provide the documents we requested — especially in light of the information we have learned from the contractors — appears to be part of a cover-up to conceal the Trump Administration’s misuse of hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars for partisan political purposes ahead of the upcoming election, and to direct taxpayer funds to friends and allies of Trump Administration officials,” Reps. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.), Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) wrote to Azar in an accompanying letter.
...
The planned campaign — with contractors racing to produce ads with celebrities to air before the election — collapsed following a POLITICO investigation last month, with actor Dennis Quaid and gospel singer CeCe Winans withdrawing their participation and other celebrities pulling out. Both Quaid and Winans posted videos insisting that their participation was solely focused on promoting public health and was not intended to be political.
The campaign was the brainchild of Caputo, who was installed as the health department’s top spokesperson in April and who abruptly requisitioned $300 million from the Centers for Disease Control to fund the campaign this summer. The health department then recommended that contractors hire one of Caputo’s business partners, Den Tolmor, to film the celebrity videos, although the Russian-born filmmaker had no prior experience with U.S. public health campaigns.
Caputo declined comment, citing his treatment for cancer. Tolmor did not respond to a request for comment.
Apparently they note in their celebrity dossier that Rhonda Rousey was arrested at a WWE event. They don't seem to realize was part of the show and completely fictitious.
Publicly supported Democratic Party candidate Bernie Sanders for 2016 election. Anti-feminist view at times. Arrested during WWE event in 2019.
The former UFC bantamweight champion was indeed arrested at the event, but it was a staged exit. During an April 1, 2019, episode of Raw, Rousey, Becky Lynch and Charlotte Flair brawled at the end of a match. Security personnel entered the ring and were taken down by the wrestlers. Men and women dressed as police officers then entered the ring, handcuffed the trio and attempted to get them in squad cards in the garage.
Rousey and Lynch were put in the same vehicle and Rousey quite easily kicked through the back window of the squad car. She then drives her car into the car in front of her. No extra officers were called in. That none of those antics raised questions about the plausibility of an actual arrest is concerning.
...
Trump had been tricked by WWE before, calling Vince McMahon in 2007 to see if he was OK after the boss staged his limo exploding.
Still curious where the $300M ended up.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
Unagi wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:06 pm
Doesn’t quite sound as advertised.
He is simply patting himself on the back for not going to big donors for money, but could have if he wanted to.
He does sound a bit defeated in tone.
Yeah, he's conceding the fundraising race. Not the election. Though he may be building his excuse for not winning the election.
" Hey OP, listen to my advice alright." -Tha General "No scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer." -Stigler's Law of Eponymy, discovered by Robert K. Merton MYT
Unagi wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:06 pm
Doesn’t quite sound as advertised.
He is simply patting himself on the back for not going to big donors for money, but could have if he wanted to.
He does sound a bit defeated in tone.
Yeah, he's conceding the fundraising race. Not the election. Though he may be building his excuse for not winning the election.
And let's remember that he promised to dump millions of his own money into the race and never did. He repeatedly suggested that he would personally match (or double or quintuple) donor amounts in his fundraising messages.
The number I've seen is that he has contributed something less than $10,000 to his own campaign. If I'm a Trump donor--especially a major one--I'm started to feel ripped-off by now.
Unagi wrote: ↑Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:06 pm
Doesn’t quite sound as advertised.
He is simply patting himself on the back for not going to big donors for money, but could have if he wanted to.
He does sound a bit defeated in tone.
Yeah, he's conceding the fundraising race. Not the election. Though he may be building his excuse for not winning the election.
And let's remember that he promised to dump millions of his own money into the race and never did. He repeatedly suggested that he would personally match (or double or quintuple) donor amounts in his fundraising messages.
The number I've seen is that he has contributed something less than $10,000 to his own campaign. If I'm a Trump donor--especially a major one--I'm started to feel ripped-off by now.
Yes, today is the day to start feeling ripped off.
UK in Covid19 lockdown. In a show of solidarity, Trump continues to hold superspreader rallies (now with actual death toll). Hey, at least the buses will run on time.
So Steven Miller is still writing Trump's speeches?
We are ONE movement, ONE people, ONE family, and ONE GLORIOUS NATION UNDER GOD! Together with the incredible people of Pennsylvania, we will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
I wonder if there are notes in the speech to throw his arm up in the air at an angle to salute the crowd?
