Trump vs. Biden - the Final Showdown

[Kraken]

Senior citizens may be souring on Trump

A handful of recent polls show Trump’s approval slipping with older voters, who initially rallied around him in March when the pandemic first began disrupting daily life. Since then, the president turned daily press briefings on the coronavirus into hours-long affairs that have included him pushing unproven treatments and musing about the medical benefits of injecting cleaning products into the body.

Many older Americans, who are more vulnerable to the virus in the first place and vote at higher levels than the rest of the population, appear to be unimpressed. Trump’s approval among people over 65 dropped 19 points between March and the end of April, according to Morning Consult polling. In another poll this week, from YouGov, his approval among older voters dropped to 46 percent, down five points from the week before.
...
At times, some high-profile Republicans have suggested that older people should sacrifice for the greater economic good. The lieutenant governor of Texas, Dan Patrick, said on Fox News last month that he and other older people would be willing to “take a chance on your survival” in exchange for keeping the economy strong. In April, Patrick doubled down, saying there are "more important things than living.”

Trump hasn’t gone as far, but he has downplayed the virus’s danger by repeatedly comparing it to the seasonal flu and stressing that an economic recession could be worse than deaths from the virus.

“Trump’s message has been that it’s more important for people to get to the hair salon than it is to protect grandma and grandpa from getting sick,” said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist who worked on Hillary Clinton’s campaign. “So it’s not a surprise that grandma and grandpa aren’t into that idea.”
...
“The reason Biden won on Super Tuesday in states he never set foot in to campaign was older voters have a baked-in opinion of Joe Biden and the baked-in opinion is he’s a good, decent, caring guy,” said Ed Rendell, the former Democratic governor of Pennsylvania and a Biden backer. “That’s why he does better with older voters than everybody else.”

Rendell said Biden could point to proposed cost cuts for Social Security disability benefits and some Medicare benefits in Trump’s budget to further gain an advantage going forward.

Biden acknowledged he’s benefiting from Trump’s stumbles this week. “I’m getting a little bit of help from the president, from some of the bizarre things he says out there,” he told donors during a virtual fund-raiser on Wednesday.

I doubt that will persist until November; seniors were easily hoodwinked in 2016 and can be fooled again if they continue to get their news from contaminated sources. This will be a momentary blip if the pandemic gradually wanes without resurging in the states that are opening prematurely, and if the economy recovers faster than experts expect it to.

[YellowKing]

if the pandemic gradually wanes without resurging in the states that are opening prematurely, and if the economy recovers faster than experts expect it to.

I don't see either of those things happening by November.

[Kraken]

Nor do I, but I think that has to happen for Trump to corral the elders again. 'Course, there's going to be a whole lot of mud slung between now and then, so who knows? For now, it's just nice to know that they're moveable.

[Unagi]

My bet is that he starts doing big things for seniors as the election nears, perhaps big things for minorities, women, etc... If he is desperate enough (and the GOP), they will (more or less) bribe people to reconsider their position on Trump.

[Kraken]

I am beginning to think the Democrats need a fallback strategy in case Biden implodes before the convention, whenever that might be. He's not the nominee yet. It's not too late to admit that, between the #MeToo stuff and his cognitive decline and whatever else the Trumpsters are holding onto until the Dems commit, they need to have a Plan B.

An argument that I read last night for a Hillary/Obama ticket made beer come out my nose. But the underlying question is valid: If Biden were to withdraw or see his poll advantage disappear in the next month or two, where would the Dems go, and would they even have the temerity to try to pick a winner?

[El Guapo]

I am beginning to think the Democrats need a fallback strategy in case Biden implodes before the convention, whenever that might be. He's not the nominee yet. It's not too late to admit that, between the #MeToo stuff and his cognitive decline and whatever else the Trumpsters are holding onto until the Dems commit, they need to have a Plan B.

An argument that I read last night for a Hillary/Obama ticket made beer come out my nose. But the underlying question is valid: If Biden were to withdraw or see his poll advantage disappear in the next month or two, where would the Dems go, and would they even have the temerity to try to pick a winner?

Are you concerned because of the assault allegations that are completely falling apart?

[Kraken]

I am beginning to think the Democrats need a fallback strategy in case Biden implodes before the convention, whenever that might be. He's not the nominee yet. It's not too late to admit that, between the #MeToo stuff and his cognitive decline and whatever else the Trumpsters are holding onto until the Dems commit, they need to have a Plan B.

An argument that I read last night for a Hillary/Obama ticket made beer come out my nose. But the underlying question is valid: If Biden were to withdraw or see his poll advantage disappear in the next month or two, where would the Dems go, and would they even have the temerity to try to pick a winner?

Are you concerned because of the assault allegations that are completely falling apart?

I'm concerned because he's a weak candidate and the Trumpsters have been preparing for him for a year or more. Dems made a bad choice. I'm skeptical that the surrogates who'll do most of his campaigning will be able to cover for him, and more skeptical that his poll numbers over Trump are meaningful.

[El Guapo]

I am beginning to think the Democrats need a fallback strategy in case Biden implodes before the convention, whenever that might be. He's not the nominee yet. It's not too late to admit that, between the #MeToo stuff and his cognitive decline and whatever else the Trumpsters are holding onto until the Dems commit, they need to have a Plan B.

An argument that I read last night for a Hillary/Obama ticket made beer come out my nose. But the underlying question is valid: If Biden were to withdraw or see his poll advantage disappear in the next month or two, where would the Dems go, and would they even have the temerity to try to pick a winner?

Are you concerned because of the assault allegations that are completely falling apart?

I'm concerned because he's a weak candidate and the Trumpsters have been preparing for him for a year or more. Dems made a bad choice. I'm skeptical that the surrogates who'll do most of his campaigning will be able to cover for him, and more skeptical that his poll numbers over Trump are meaningful.

Do you think they've only been preparing for Biden? E.g., 2019: Michigan student says Trump backers recruited him for false rape allegation against Pete Buttigieg.

Anyway, his strengths and weaknesses are what they were during the primary campaign. On the negative side, he's not as good at debating / mass presentations as some of the other candidates (Sanders, Buttigieg). On the plus side, he's a known, 'safe' choice for the many, many people who dislike Trump but don't want to do anything that seems crazy or radical. He's not a lock to win by any means, but it is safe to say that he's in a reasonably good position to win at the moment. We'll see how the smear machine works, but that would be happening to anyone at this point.

[Holman]

I take some hope from the fact that Biden's record has already been closely picked-over for scandal by the McCain and the Obama teams, let alone various senate opponents.

One of the reasons for skepticism about Tara Reade, even before she began admitting she didn't claim what she claimed she claimed, was that Biden has been vetted by opponents and potential allies over the course of several major elections already. It's hard to hide a real bombshell when you've been competing for the top spot for years.

[Holman]

Do you think they've only been preparing for Biden? E.g., 2019: Michigan student says Trump backers recruited him for false rape allegation against Pete Buttigieg.

This is what's especially creepy about GOP politics now. That Chicago story is paywalled for me, but I assume it's the Jacob Wohl story from last year?

I have no doubt that Wohl acted independently of any WH or RNC coordination. They have complete deniability. But what Wohl represents is a small army of ratfucker wannabes prepared to do whatever it takes, no matter how duplicitous and illegal, to get their big break as the next Roger Stone.

[El Guapo]

Do you think they've only been preparing for Biden? E.g., 2019: Michigan student says Trump backers recruited him for false rape allegation against Pete Buttigieg.

This is what's especially creepy about GOP politics now. That Chicago story is paywalled for me, but I assume it's the Jacob Wohl story from last year?

I have no doubt that Wohl acted independently of any WH or RNC coordination. They have complete deniability. But what Wohl represents is a small army of ratfucker wannabes prepared to do whatever it takes, no matter how duplicitous and illegal, to get their big break as the next Roger Stone.

It is.

Plus they don't need credible allegations. They just need to keep throwing stuff at the wall until the media latches onto one or two stories and starts writing "questions raised" type stories. One can debate which candidate would be best positioned to hold under these type of smears; I don't think the answer is clear.

[Paingod]

One of the reasons for skepticism about Tara Reade, even before she began admitting she didn't claim what she claimed she claimed, was that Biden has been vetted by opponents and potential allies over the course of several major elections already. It's hard to hide a real bombshell when you've been competing for the top spot for years.

A fact check on Tara Reade's history around Biden - from details about loving Putin and Russia to her previously praising and liking Biden publicly on Twitter in years past.



I want to give any allegation due process. The GOP side wants to compare this to the Brett Kavanaugh accusations by Christine Blasey Ford and declare that the Democrats are all too eager to sweep this under the rug. When I think back on the Kavanaugh issue, I can't recall the accuser flip-flopping on liking or hating Kavanaugh or altering her story with time. Did she have a lack of solid evidence? She seemed to. Did her story change as she told it? I don't remember it doing that. Did I believe her? Her story was compelling and I wanted to, but it probably wasn't enough to convict anyone or destroy their career. Was Kavanaugh's calendar of events from his teenage years incredibly creepy, like he was stacking alibis to use for the future? Absolutely.

So do I believe Tara Reade? She seems like she's too inconsistent and too erratic to be trusted as a single point of data against a presidential candidate. If she was one of twenty rape accusers, her allegations would have different weight even if they were erratic. A year ago she was one of eight women who said Biden made them uncomfortable with touching, to which Biden said he'd adjust his behavior.

Do I believe Biden is too handsy with people? Yes. Watching his interactions with women, it seems clear that he has "creepy old guy" boundary issues. Dude needs to give women the same attention he gives men, not more. This doesn't fly. From a year ago...

[gilraen]

Tara Reade's lawyer dropped her after it came out that she lied about her credentials while testifying over the years as an expert witness on domestic violence.

[Grifman]

Biden is looking pretty good right now in the polls compared to challengers for the last half century:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/31/politics ... index.html

However, his lead drops by 50% if you look only at most likely voters. And Trump's supporters still have a higher enthusiasm level. Turn out will be key to getting a victory.

[malchior]

Biden is looking pretty good right now in the polls compared to challengers for the last half century:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/31/politics ... index.html

However, his lead drops by 50% if you look only at most likely voters. And Trump's supporters still have a higher enthusiasm level. Turn out will be key to getting a victory.

I think it's safe to say that with everything happening normal electoral math and/or these polls don't mean much of anything *especially* considering the events of the last week.

[Paingod]

Biden is looking pretty good right now in the polls compared to challengers for the last half century

And that's being done with a platform of "..."

Dude's just laying low and letting his opponent set himself on fire daily. Imagine if Biden had charisma and passion. He'd be a political steamroller right now.

[El Guapo]

Biden is looking pretty good right now in the polls compared to challengers for the last half century:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/31/politics ... index.html

However, his lead drops by 50% if you look only at most likely voters. And Trump's supporters still have a higher enthusiasm level. Turn out will be key to getting a victory.

I think it's safe to say that with everything happening normal electoral math and/or these polls don't mean much of anything *especially* considering the events of the last week.

It's obviously early in the election cycle, but that Biden has held a consistent and statistically meaningful lead for quite awhile certainly isn't meaningless.

But yeah, we'll see what the effect of this week's events are.

[malchior]

Biden is looking pretty good right now in the polls compared to challengers for the last half century:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/31/politics ... index.html

However, his lead drops by 50% if you look only at most likely voters. And Trump's supporters still have a higher enthusiasm level. Turn out will be key to getting a victory.

I think it's safe to say that with everything happening normal electoral math and/or these polls don't mean much of anything *especially* considering the events of the last week.

It's obviously early in the election cycle, but that Biden has held a consistent and statistically meaningful lead for quite awhile certainly isn't meaningless.

But yeah, we'll see what the effect of this week's events are.

Yeah and I wasn't saying meaningless. I'm not disputing the data they collected. It's just that conditions are changing drastically day to day, week to week, month to month and we have to really take a moment to realize that this is the time to dig in. There is so much volatility we have no idea what will matter next week much less November.

[El Guapo]

Biden is looking pretty good right now in the polls compared to challengers for the last half century:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/31/politics ... index.html

However, his lead drops by 50% if you look only at most likely voters. And Trump's supporters still have a higher enthusiasm level. Turn out will be key to getting a victory.

I think it's safe to say that with everything happening normal electoral math and/or these polls don't mean much of anything *especially* considering the events of the last week.

It's obviously early in the election cycle, but that Biden has held a consistent and statistically meaningful lead for quite awhile certainly isn't meaningless.

But yeah, we'll see what the effect of this week's events are.

Yeah and I wasn't saying meaningless. I'm not disputing the data they collected. It's just that conditions are changing drastically day to day, week to week, month to month and we have to really take a moment to realize that this is the time to dig in. There is so much volatility we have no idea what will matter next week much less November.

Yeah, I know. And maybe the bigger issue is that this is just one poll. But it is worth noting that Biden has maintained a statistically significant lead over Trump consistently for some time, through a lot of crazy / important stories.

[Octavious]

Biden is going out and talking to the protesters. Trump is hiding in the White House threatening to release the hounds. I don't see this benefiting Trump. I'm just scared what crazy ass distraction he will try next.

[Paingod]

I'm just scared what crazy ass distraction he will try next.

Laughing while the nation literally burns has been working well to distract people from his complete lack of leadership during the COVID crisis. As long as cities on fire keep the top headlines, he'll keep fanning the flames with Tweets.

If it dies down, though, we may be in trouble. I hear the military has the BEST explosives. Explosives so good they could level any FAKE NEWS outlet that's spreading TREASONOUS lies about him. I'm trying to sound cynical, but so far anytime anyone has said "Surely he wouldn't" he went off and did, so I'm left trying to imagine something so out there that he really wouldn't.

[El Guapo]

Biden is going out and talking to the protesters. Trump is hiding in the White House threatening to release the hounds. I don't see this benefiting Trump. I'm just scared what crazy ass distraction he will try next.

I hope not. But especially through the lens of "white police vs. black rioters" that I expect the media will cover this with, that this is going to tap into white id / anxiety.

[malchior]

Continuing and escalating violence are an opportunity for Trump in the sense that he claims to be 'law and order'. It is hard to gauge how continuing violence is going to be ascribed to blacks despite the actual causes and drive turnout favorable to Trump. In particular to know how this stuff will play out with white, suburban or ex-urban people. Trump has being Trump should be ranked on a range at best that varies from abysmal to dangerous during this new crisis. Yet, still we have no idea how this will be resolved and whether that'll be favorable to Trump. It's just too chaotic to predict.

[Holman]

On the enthusiasm gap:

Biden is a compromise candidate, and he's not even the candidate (officially) yet. But the biggest factor is that this will be a partisan election to end all partisan elections.

Heck, I like Joe Biden. I'm content with him as the nominee. But my enthusiasm isn't *for* him; it's 100% *against* Trump.

[El Guapo]

I just find this kind of thing comforting. Biden's lead is substantially larger than Clinton's at this point, plus the pool of undecided voters is significantly smaller.

Still too early, I'm just looking for positive signs where I can find them.

[El Guapo]

Also other polls don't consistently show a GOP enthusiasm edge:

[El Guapo]

[Skinypupy]

On the enthusiasm gap:

Biden is a compromise candidate, and he's not even the candidate (officially) yet. But the biggest factor is that this will be a partisan election to end all partisan elections.

Heck, I like Joe Biden. I'm content with him as the nominee. But my enthusiasm isn't *for* him; it's 100% *against* Trump.

Is there anyone who is actually excited for and enthusiastic about Biden?

[pr0ner]

Meanwhile in Trumplandia:

[malchior]

I just find this kind of thing comforting. Biden's lead is substantially larger than Clinton's at this point, plus the pool of undecided voters is significantly smaller.

Still too early, I'm just looking for positive signs where I can find them.

Oh no doubt. Biden's favorable / unfavorable numbers have remained steady since he was Veep. I think it is safe to say he would have easily beat Trump in 2016 if he had run and gotten the nom. He should be a shoo-in considering everything. I feel comfortable saying I think Biden will win. As long as Biden's poll numbers don't start to shrink meaningfully then we have hope.

[malchior]

Now here is the other side though. I'll park it here because it is the political risk/debt from this incident.

[Kraken]

On the enthusiasm gap:

Biden is a compromise candidate, and he's not even the candidate (officially) yet. But the biggest factor is that this will be a partisan election to end all partisan elections.

Heck, I like Joe Biden. I'm content with him as the nominee. But my enthusiasm isn't *for* him; it's 100% *against* Trump.

Is there anyone who is actually excited for and enthusiastic about Biden?

I have one FB friend who tried to whip up some support with a series of cheerleading posts on her timeline. When that went nowhere, she admitted she's just trying to make the best of the hand we've been dealt and stopped pretending otherwise.

I say again: This election will be a referendum on Trump. Trump is running against Obama. Biden should continue to stay out of the limelight, except in brief scripted situations, and let stronger campaigners do the heavy lifting. Especially Obama.

[Grifman]

Uh, that's the same article I linked to above that started this current discussion

[Grifman]

I just find this kind of thing comforting. Biden's lead is substantially larger than Clinton's at this point, plus the pool of undecided voters is significantly smaller.

Still too early, I'm just looking for positive signs where I can find them.

Oh no doubt. Biden's favorable / unfavorable numbers have remained steady since he was Veep. I think it is safe to say he would have easily beat Trump in 2016 if he had run and gotten the nom. He should be a shoo-in considering everything. I feel comfortable saying I think Biden will win. As long as Biden's poll numbers don't start to shrink meaningfully then we have hope.

Huh, what?!? Is the the same guy that was saying a few weeks ago that Biden was all but doomed (ok, maybe a little exaggeration there), that he needed to get out of the basement, he was going to let Trump define him, just wait until the Trump attacks on him began, etc, etc.?

[El Guapo]

Uh, that's the same article I linked to above that started this current discussion

uhhhh, I knew that. I just wanted to bring it full circle. Or something.

[stimpy]

Biden should continue to stay out of the limelight, except in brief scripted situations, and let stronger campaigners do the heavy lifting. Especially Obama.

Yeah....hide in the bushes until it's safe to poke your hair-sniffing head out again.
He is showing great leadership capabilities in this time of crisis...…...or not.

[GungHo]

Biden should continue to stay out of the limelight, except in brief scripted situations, and let stronger campaigners do the heavy lifting. Especially Obama.

Yeah....hide in the bushes until it's safe to poke your hair-sniffing head out again.
He is showing great leadership capabilities in this time of crisis...…...or not.

He doesn't have to show great leadership, he just has to show he's better than trump.

That's a pretty low bar.

Clinton lost bc people didn't like her personally, not bc she wasn't superior in every way imaginable to trump; Biden doesn't have that problem.

But since you're questioning Biden's leadership chops, I'm guessing you think trump is doing a bang up job?
Really?

[malchior]

I just find this kind of thing comforting. Biden's lead is substantially larger than Clinton's at this point, plus the pool of undecided voters is significantly smaller.

Still too early, I'm just looking for positive signs where I can find them.

Oh no doubt. Biden's favorable / unfavorable numbers have remained steady since he was Veep. I think it is safe to say he would have easily beat Trump in 2016 if he had run and gotten the nom. He should be a shoo-in considering everything. I feel comfortable saying I think Biden will win. As long as Biden's poll numbers don't start to shrink meaningfully then we have hope.

Huh, what?!? Is the the same guy that was saying a few weeks ago that Biden was all but doomed (ok, maybe a little exaggeration there), that he needed to get out of the basement, he was going to let Trump define him, just wait until the Trump attacks on him began, etc, etc.?

Yeah it is a *whole lot of exaggeration*. That said, I don't think the quote above is in conflict. I still think Biden has the fight of his life in front of him and I still do think he wasn't even close to the best person for this fight. He had *two* conferences yesterday that the media ignored. Fuck the big networks for 2016 style bullshit but also the Biden campaign still need how to figure out how to be effective. Which was the point of any comments about him being in his basement. I actually had no problem with it from a pandemic perspective. At one point he hadn't figured out how to give an interview. The problem was his messaging effectiveness. And that problem still remains but has improved.

The stakes are too high for him to be bad at electoral politics. So where does that put things? Biden is indeed in the best position since polling but we are also in the middle of a major medical, financial, racial, and political crisis that has no equivalent in history. Anything can happen. Risks and stakes are extreme. Still based on current conditions...Biden should win. But then again we might be a dictatorship and don't know it yet.

[raydude]

I finally got my Dad to realize how big of an idiot Trump is. My dad voted for him in 2016 based on his anti-illegal immigrant stance. Pointing out to him that Trump was also against legal brown immigrants didn’t move him.

It wasn’t until Trump wanted to explore injecting bleach that he figured out Trump knows nothing. My mom helped too probably. She’s been railing against him ever since the Pandemic and the do-nothing federal policy of handling it.

In any case that’s one vote switched to Biden.

[malchior]

Good speech by Biden. He set the right tone and spelled out specific solutions. And also appropriately called out Trump.