Break on through to the other side

[Kraken]

Plague, global depression, environmental collapse/global warming/mass extinction, rising fascism/nationalism, oligarchy/kleptocracy. Did I forget anything?

We are very clearly in one of those historic chaotic interludes between steady states. The world that emerges won't look much like the one being swept away. What do you see on the other side, and how and when do we reach it?

[Blackhawk]

Lenny Bruce is not afraid.

Spoiler:

I'm not Lenny Bruce.

[ImLawBoy]

The other day I wanted to hear some tunes so I said, "Alexa, play music." The Echo said, "Here's a station you might like. College Rock."

The drums started and I knew right away what was playing. Even though I don't care for REM I let it go as it was appropriate, if a bit too on the nose.

[Daehawk]

Forgot earthquakes.

And we reach it long after Im dead.

[YellowKing]

I tend to be an eternal optimist, so I can't help but think that this tragedy is going to be what potentially saves mankind. This virus didn't have to have a 3% mortality rate. It could have been 50%, 75%, 100%. It could have been airborne.

There's no doubt that we will learn lessons from this and be better prepared next time. That doesn't mean perfection, but maybe it means we're not completely caught with our pants around our ankles.

Another side effect may be a greater public trust in scientific experts. Maybe that leads to a more serious societal push towards solving climate change.

There will be big changes to healthcare. I don't see how we come out of this in any way thinking our current way of doing things is sufficient.

Western countries, and in particular the US, have had an easy street for a long time. We're used to a world in which we do what we want, when we want. We got that taken away from us in a matter of weeks. That's not a lesson that will be easily forgotten.

We're seeing humanity put to a test to see what we can do in the face of global danger. Should we survive (and we will), what an incredibly valuable lesson.

[Jaymann]

Answer to Fermi's Paradox?

[Daehawk]

This virus didn't have to have a 3% mortality rate. It could have been 50%, 75%, 100%. It could have been airborne.

It could always mutate.

[Blackhawk]

I tend to be an eternal optimist, so I can't help but think that this tragedy is going to be what potentially saves mankind.

I don't disagree. 75 years of smooth sailing has made us complacent and arrogant. It has made us obsessed with petty, irrelevant things. This could change that. It could wake a lot of people up and reset our priorities.

[Kraken]

(I changed the thread title because I didn't realize I'd poached it from the corona thread. Plus, The Doors > REM.)

[Freyland]

I think this will have to go on for quite a bit longer to lead to any meaningful change, at least for the U.S.

[Kraken]

I think this will have to go on for quite a bit longer to lead to any meaningful change, at least for the U.S.

Our crisis isn't just about covid, although I think it's the domino that's going to topple the rest. We've got several other emergencies that will go on for quite a bit longer, and none of them can be fixed without meaningful change.

[Daehawk]

[malchior]

I think this will have to go on for quite a bit longer to lead to any meaningful change, at least for the U.S.

Our crisis isn't just about covid, although I think it's the domino that's going to topple the rest. We've got several other emergencies that will go on for quite a bit longer, and none of them can be fixed without meaningful change.

We've been dealing with governmental crises and inability to act for over a decade. I think people keep forgetting that in all this. Yes they'll come together for the 'big crisis' but the day-to-day inability to solve problems is the environment that allowed Trump to seize power.

I see a few big branches you could explore here. They start with the immediate crisis - Covid-19.

Covid-19 goes wide and kills > 1 million Americans:

Code: Select all

* will drive major change that could go down several branches, with some examples:
  * blue wave - probably the most likely
    * if this happens then healthcare will likely be addresses right off the bat
    * major societal change begins to occur
    * Democrats stop fucking around and take the wheel
  * Trump emergency powers - de facto dictatorship - less likely
    * full on Russia/Turkey style kleptocracy
  * Regional insurrections - very unlikely
    * US internal tensions lead to a protracted civil conflicts between several different regions

Covid-19 is mitigated:

We will likely go back to the pre-Covid-19 grinding systemic failure. I think this has a higher chance of a Trump family line dictatorship. People will forget the bungling and the economy might be roaring back. People will be relieved but more importantly Trump will get a rally to flag effect. He will also easily outmaneuver a hapless Biden in this scenario. The irony being that doing the best now might lead to a terrible outcome down the line.

Another line in the mitigation line is that we uncover actual misconduct handling Covid-19. The stock trades, the pharma connections we heard about with the Kushners, etc. Hard to know if that is a real possibility but it could happen and would clash interestingly with what will be a shit show election.

There probably is a middle ground between mitigation and the horror line that is a bit of a hybrid but it isn't as clear as these are to me yet.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Plus, The Doors > REM.

This is the most wrong anyone has ever been on this forum.

[Sudy]

The drums started and I knew right away what was playing. Even though I don't care for REM I let it go as it was appropriate, if a bit too on the nose.

I read that as "a bit too on the noose."

[Holman]

The Doors > REM

I recently saw The Doors described as "Art School students start a Lounge Act."

[Blackhawk]

I mean, if you want an appropriate song title for how all this went down...

Spoiler:

(I didn't say it was a good song.)

[Kraken]

This song plays in my head whenever I read about the toilet paper crisis.

Spoiler:

[Jaymann]

The Doors > REM

I recently saw The Doors described as "Art School students start a Lounge Act."

I actually saw The Doors once at the Hollywood Bowl. Was not all that impressed, but that's a fairly large lounge.

[Kraken]

How transformative this turns out to be will depend in large part on how long it goes on. A scenario I read today has it persisting through the end of 2021. In that scenario, we might manage to reduce and then stop new cases as early as July or August, whereupon we could relax our distancing measures. When we do, it will inevitably come back, and when hospitalizations reach a predetermined trigger level we'll raise shields again. This produces a roller-coaster curve of tightening for a couple of months, relaxing for a month, and so on. With each new spike, we're better prepared with tests and countermeasures, and can isolate the infected and trace their contacts, so each cycle affects a smaller number of people. We won't break that cycle until we have an effective vaccine, widespread natural immunity, and/or effective treatments (probably all three).

This obviously depends on a lot of unproven assumptions, but it might be a very long time before any of us can visit a restaurant again.

[Jeff V]

This obviously depends on a lot of unproven assumptions, but it might be a very long time before any of us can visit a restaurant again.

I knew having cooking skills would matter some day.

It's going to be a depressing summer though if I can't cook for large crowds.

[Kraken]

The Guardian ran a long piece addressing the question of what life will look like after the plague.

The pessimistic view is that we go back to the same old world run by the same old players, strengthened by additional powers and protections. That's what happened after the Great Recession.

The optimistic view is that we build upon the Covid crisis to address the bigger, slower-motion crisis of climate change, and we do this by uprooting the players and mentality that are currently ignoring or worsening it.

Both arguments are more nuanced than that. Please don't respond to my thumbnail descriptions without reading the column.

[Kraken]

I'll predict one long-term consequence: A lot of companies right now are wondering why they still pay unreliable, fallible humans to do work that could be automated. This is going to be a shot in the metallic arm for robots and AIs.

[LawBeefaroni]

Think I mentioned it in the other thread but UBI will be a hot topic once again. We're going to have massive long-term unemployment resulting from massive job loss.

[Octavious]

I don't see anything getting better. I still see people dry humping Trump on Facebook. More power will be grabbed and the wealth gap will continue to skyrocket. We have too many right wing idiots in this country to ever fix it. I've pretty much lost hope and feel terrible that I brought someone into this shitty world.

And I'm pretty sure he will get elected again. As long as his minions go along with whatever nonsense excuses he has this will somehow be twisted into some great thing he has done. Pack it up it's over.

[Jaymann]

Let me get this straight:

The economy is the worst since the Great Depression.

Unemployment is through the roof.

People are dropping dead from inadequate virus response.

Trump is the lamest duck since Jimmy Carter (who could probably beat him).

[Octavious]

I really wish/hope that is true. At this point what I have seen over the last 4 years is that he will somehow game the system and keep on killing the country. Well what's left of it... Mitch will happily bend any and every rule to make this happen.

[LawBeefaroni]

I really wish/hope that is true. At this point what I have seen over the last 4 years is that he will somehow game the system and keep on killing the country. Well what's left of it... Mitch will happily bend any and every rule to make this happen.

Yeah, I don't have any confidence that we'll make the obvious right call in November. I haven't lost all hope, even if Trump gets re-elected, but it is to the point where I'm probably going to spend more time with the older kiddo working on physical fitness and marksmanship than algebra and art. She may be looking at a rough 20 years or so.

[Kraken]

I really wish/hope that is true. At this point what I have seen over the last 4 years is that he will somehow game the system and keep on killing the country. Well what's left of it... Mitch will happily bend any and every rule to make this happen.

Yeah, I don't have any confidence that we'll make the obvious right call in November. I haven't lost all hope, even if Trump gets re-elected, but it is to the point where I'm probably going to spend more time with the older kiddo working on physical fitness and marksmanship than algebra and art. She may be looking at a rough 20 years or so.

People want a strong leader in times of crisis, and Trump is playing one on TV. There's also a worldwide trend toward authoritarianism since long before the pandemic started. We see flashes of leadership from Democrats like Cuomo and Pelosi, but Biden is irrelevant on the sidelines.

From this side of the wreckage, I foresee an easy reelection for Trump. Maybe it will look different on the other side. Much will depend on whether the economy roars back or sputters along the bottom, and how big a body count the red states rack up.

[YellowKing]

I guess we'll wait and see. I don't see a single factor (other than that he's the incumbent) that favors Trump for re-election. The polls don't support it. Approval ratings don't support it. The economy doesn't support it. The electoral map doesn't support it. The demographics don't support it. Voter motivation doesn't support it. Voter turnout doesn't support it. I'll never say never after 2016, but at some point if Trump was a shoo-in, there'd be some evidence of that other than "my friends support Trump on Facebook."

Could COVID's impact on the elections be an unknown factor in Trump's favor? Absolutely. But I'm not prepared to predict the election outcome based on the possibility that the election *might* be impacted by it.

[El Guapo]

I guess we'll wait and see. I don't see a single factor (other than that he's the incumbent) that favors Trump for re-election. The polls don't support it. Approval ratings don't support it. The economy doesn't support it. The electoral map doesn't support it. The demographics don't support it. Voter motivation doesn't support it. Voter turnout doesn't support it. I'll never say never after 2016, but at some point if Trump was a shoo-in, there'd be some evidence of that other than "my friends support Trump on Facebook."

I agree with this. But at the same time, I'm more worried about more openly authoritarian measures that Trump might now take using coronavirus as justification.

[malchior]

If Trump wins, it'll be along the lines of 2016, a electoral victory with a possibly lopsided popular vote. I don't know what happens then but it won't be pretty. That said, I don't think he wins absent authoritarianism or shenanigans but the likely worst election of our lifetimes is possibly going to be horrific.

[gameoverman]

I have crappy skills in predicting the future, but one spooky thing that I keep thinking will happen is widespread death of national leaders around the world. Right now we have heard of some notable names being infected, but no deaths of leaders due to this virus. Using the US as an example, what happens when/if a range of people at the top(who tend to be older) start dropping like flies? What happens if the list of next in line has a bunch of names scratched out? What happens if the generals in command of the various parts of the military are no longer functional?

Sections of this country could break away, leading to more fragmentation. With the world's superpower hobbled, what will happen around the world? It could be epic. It could make WWI and WWII look quaint in comparison.

[YellowKing]

I'm willing to take the risk if Trump is one of those world leaders.

[Grifman]

I tend to be an eternal optimist, so I can't help but think that this tragedy is going to be what potentially saves mankind. This virus didn't have to have a 3% mortality rate. It could have been 50%, 75%, 100%. It could have been airborne.

There's no doubt that we will learn lessons from this and be better prepared next time. That doesn't mean perfection, but maybe it means we're not completely caught with our pants around our ankles.

I agree, this is bad, but not as bad of a pandemic as many have been predicting, with death rates between 25% and 50%. But this is bad enough to make us realize how unprepared we really are. It's an expensive, costly lesson, but not as expensive and costly as it could have been.

[El Guapo]

I tend to be an eternal optimist, so I can't help but think that this tragedy is going to be what potentially saves mankind. This virus didn't have to have a 3% mortality rate. It could have been 50%, 75%, 100%. It could have been airborne.

There's no doubt that we will learn lessons from this and be better prepared next time. That doesn't mean perfection, but maybe it means we're not completely caught with our pants around our ankles.

I agree, this is bad, but not as bad of a pandemic as many have been predicting, with death rates between 25% and 50%. But this is bad enough to make us realize how unprepared we really are. It's an expensive, costly lesson, but not as expensive and costly as it could have been.

Has anyone been predicting Coronavirus death rates between 25% and 50%? Or is that just people are fearing that there will be a pandemic with death rates like that eventually?

[Kraken]

I tend to be an eternal optimist, so I can't help but think that this tragedy is going to be what potentially saves mankind. This virus didn't have to have a 3% mortality rate. It could have been 50%, 75%, 100%. It could have been airborne.

There's no doubt that we will learn lessons from this and be better prepared next time. That doesn't mean perfection, but maybe it means we're not completely caught with our pants around our ankles.

I agree, this is bad, but not as bad of a pandemic as many have been predicting, with death rates between 25% and 50%. But this is bad enough to make us realize how unprepared we really are. It's an expensive, costly lesson, but not as expensive and costly as it could have been.

Has anyone been predicting Coronavirus death rates between 25% and 50%? Or is that just people are fearing that there will be a pandemic with death rates like that eventually?

The deadlier a virus is, the harder it is to spread. Killing its host is not a virus's goal; spreading and reproducing is. Killing the hosts is counterproductive.

[Blackhawk]

We certainly do live in interesting times.

I agree that Trump is unlikely to be reelected legitimately, but if he knows that, I expect him to try to retain office illegitimately, be that through indirect election interference or 'emergency measures.' And if that happens... I don't know. A few years ago I'd have said to be ready for open rebellion, but the last couple of years have shown that we've become passive.

[Unagi]

I tend to be an eternal optimist, so I can't help but think that this tragedy is going to be what potentially saves mankind. This virus didn't have to have a 3% mortality rate. It could have been 50%, 75%, 100%. It could have been airborne.

There's no doubt that we will learn lessons from this and be better prepared next time. That doesn't mean perfection, but maybe it means we're not completely caught with our pants around our ankles.

I agree, this is bad, but not as bad of a pandemic as many have been predicting, with death rates between 25% and 50%. But this is bad enough to make us realize how unprepared we really are. It's an expensive, costly lesson, but not as expensive and costly as it could have been.

Has anyone been predicting Coronavirus death rates between 25% and 50%? Or is that just people are fearing that there will be a pandemic with death rates like that eventually?

Just people fearing that there will be eventually.
This being our ‘shot across the bow’

[malchior]

The thing about the high death rate outbreaks (like Ebola) is people take them seriously and they usually burn themselves out quickly. This thing is low, slow, and often asymptomatic. It is really bad in a way because it overwhelms systems and drives up all death rates while knocking down economies. That said this has made it into the massive disaster we are experiencing. I'm beginning to think this is a perfect storm middle ground that allowed our moron-in-chief to not take it seriously enough long enough that it crippled our nation. That's why I don't see this as a 'shot across the bow'. I think this hit us below the water line.