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The Viral Economy

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LordMortis
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LordMortis »

malchior wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:01 pm
LordMortis wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:28 pmCNBC reported this morning TMMNA have stock on hand currently at around 9 days. 9 DAYS! Some of that stock on hand is in transit for much of that 9 days. A typical roaring good market when everything is turning up roses is about 3 months inventory.
It is an interesting factoid but lacks a lot of crucial context to understand what is actually happening. Top of mind questions: Are most sales to consumers? Government? Rental companies? Are they substitute purchases due to shortages in other manufacturers? What types of vehicles are selling? In any case, I found the segment where they talked about this; like a lot of stuff on CNBC it is all surface level.
I'm not sure how that matters. I was in a meeting last week discussing the industry, in general. Inventories are down across the board for OEMs, especially as related to chip shortages. There are 10s of 1000s of F150s coming off the line, moved to lots and then having their core boards removed so they get more vehicles off the line. Concurrent with that, more vehicles are being purchased right now than they were pre-pandemic while capacity to produce is down. Industry specific forecasts are building an increased demand to last at least over two years, if nothing else because of the pent up demand doesn't have an outlet to be met and the timeline for meeting that demand is currently unclear.

This is from April, but it's still the story in June

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ ... 175158002/
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

LordMortis wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:12 pm
malchior wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 6:01 pm
LordMortis wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:28 pmCNBC reported this morning TMMNA have stock on hand currently at around 9 days. 9 DAYS! Some of that stock on hand is in transit for much of that 9 days. A typical roaring good market when everything is turning up roses is about 3 months inventory.
It is an interesting factoid but lacks a lot of crucial context to understand what is actually happening. Top of mind questions: Are most sales to consumers? Government? Rental companies? Are they substitute purchases due to shortages in other manufacturers? What types of vehicles are selling? In any case, I found the segment where they talked about this; like a lot of stuff on CNBC it is all surface level.
I'm not sure how that matters.
It matters because the reasons they have low inventory are incredibly relevant to understanding how the economy is waking up.
I was in a meeting last week discussing the industry, in general. Inventories are down across the board for OEMs, especially as related to chip shortages. There are 10s of 1000s of F150s coming off the line, moved to lots and then having their core boards removed so they get more vehicles off the line. Concurrent with that, more vehicles are being purchased right now than they were pre-pandemic while capacity to produce is down. Industry specific forecasts are building an increased demand to last at least over two years, if nothing else because of the pent up demand doesn't have an outlet to be met and the timeline for meeting that demand is currently unclear.
That's exactly what I'm talking about. Demand/supply imbalances are happening all over the economy. The fact they have 9 days of inventory is a factoid but the big picture is very murky. I was just talking to a client who suddenly signed with us even though they said days ago that the budget was unallocated. They mentioned during the meeting that revenues in their core mining business went through the roof because of price surges (demand >>> supply). They are taking the money and investing it improving their cybersecurity which is prudent. However, I suspect they won't invest in more mining capacity because who knows how long the demand imbalance lasts. That's the math happening all over the place.
This is from April, but it's still the story in June

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ ... 175158002/
Exactly. What about that is some sustainable change in the economy? That's why I suspect we have long-term disruption in the cards.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

Biden continuing to negotiate against himself. The GOP isn't negotiating in good faith. I can't figure out what the game plan is here.

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Re: The Viral Economy

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He could give them what they want and they'd claim it was a trick and they weren't falling for it. Or they never asked for such n such. F them. Go around them all the time. Ignore them.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Daehawk wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:40 pm He could give them what they want and they'd claim it was a trick and they weren't falling for it. Or they never asked for such n such. F them. Go around them all the time. Ignore them.
The problem is Manchin/Sinema obviously. He needs to get down and dirty on Manchin/Sinema. Threaten to withdraw support. Twist arms. Whatever needs to be done behind the scenes. If they get zilch done they're setting themselves to be trounced in 2022. It'll be pretty hard to turn out the vote if/when they've got nothing to show for majorities and the Presidency.

If playing this shadow game with the GOP was aimed at Manchin/Sinema -- well it isn't working. It is yet another week burned in fake negotiations. All McConnell has the GOP team doing is delaying the game and extracting concessions that Biden keeps dangling out in response to their fake offers. This is turning out to be exactly what I feared from a Biden administration.

Edit: Another problem I just read about is that Biden's concessions are starting to get pushback in the House. Maybe they'll whip them back into line but he has to get this done without it looking like capitulation to the Republicans who are openly seditionist. It is a tricky game to be sure but he has to win one victory for his agenda. Otherwise the stories will write themselves.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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If only there was a notion of an idea about how to prime the pump on jobs? We're a week out on the inflation numbers which are probably going to still be unclear but I hate that we're looking at a slow recovery again. The participation rate was pretty much level still which is a bit of a negative read. Workers are entering the workforce at population growth levels. That's generally not great during an expansion. You expect unemployment and participation rate to spike as people re-enter the workforce. Red states have been suspending unemployment benefits - we'll see if that pushes people off the sidelines but that case was pretty damn dubious if wage inflation was the real story. Next month we will get some indications if that was real or not.

Edit: The boil down - we had the beginning of a V-shaped recovery through October when the winter wave of Covid hit. It started to accelerate again as the vaccine roll out worked it way out but it doesn't look sustainable. We may be transitioning to a U-shaped recovery like after the great recession. If we can get past our fucked up politics we could prime the pump or we may end up running a slower than needed recovery. My best guess is that the core CPI published on June 10th is going to be slightly lower for May than the number that caused the premature freakout in April.

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The Viral Economy

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Just heard a local restaurant chain owner talking about workforce and problems he’s having even staying open for his normal working hours.

I only caught tail end of it but he was saying that stimulus money certainly didn’t help, but that the restaurant owners simply had to realize they have to pay better to be competitive.

He called the min wage law/rate (SC)absurd bc he says no one (again, in his specific business) is paying min wage, and most are paying double.

Interestingly, one of the biggest factors for him in keeping people was competing with Amazon for jobs at fulfillment centers and as drivers, bc they pay so much in comparison.

He said he loses people for two months, regularly, to Amazon, UPS and FedEx before and around Christmas.

He reiterated that restaurants simply have to pay more to keep staff ( and that customers should realize that will mean higher prices).

Said everything is shifted, and no going back. Probably benefits for workers on near term horizon as well.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Fri Jun 04, 2021 8:57 amSaid everything is shifted, and no going back. Probably benefits for workers on near term horizon as well.
That has been sort of the big point I'd make. There is a major re-alignment happening all across the economy. Brick-and-mortar retail is taking a big hit, gig economy especially with regards to food delivery has transformed things, and we don't know what it means for the whole restaurant sector. Do people want to go out? Do people want to just stay home? Do they care about local stores, etc. It's a big unknown and working through it with all the society-wide uncertainty is going to take a spell.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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The worker never wins. Not long term. We are too far along the path.



malchior wrote: Fri Jun 04, 2021 10:42 am Do people want to go out? Do people want to just stay home?
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Your quote nesting hurts my brain. (or it did until your edit)

It's not really work. it's just the power to charm.

And so the modern myth is that we have a "work family"... right up until you are a human resource again...
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LawBeefaroni »

LordMortis wrote: Fri Jun 04, 2021 1:18 pm Your quote nesting hurts my brain. (or it did until your edit)
LordMortis wrote: Fri Jun 04, 2021 1:18 pm
Carpet_pissr wrote: Fri Jun 04, 2021 8:57 am
Said everything is shifted, and no going back. Probably benefits for workers on near term horizon as well.
LordMortis wrote: Fri Jun 04, 2021 1:18 pm It's not really work. it's just the power to charm.

And so the modern myth is that we have a "work family"... right up until you are a human resource again...
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Re: The Viral Economy

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When it comes to the workplace
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Kinda related to the KS thread, but a piece that's focused on shipping:
"We are seeing a historic surge of cargo volume coming into our ports," says Tom Bellerud, the chief operations officer of The Northwest Seaport Alliance, which manages all cargo processing at the ports of Seattle and Tacoma. "The terminals are having a difficult time keeping up with processing all the cargo off these vessels fast enough."

On both land and at sea, the entire supply chain is struggling to keep up. In the Pacific Northwest, it's become such a clusterfest that the U.S. Coast Guard has been redirecting boats to anchor off the coast of Whidbey Island and other places they typically don't park. Ship crews are having to wait days, even weeks, for the chance to dock at the ports and offload their precious goods.
This is the part that gave me pause:
Rising shipping costs and delays are starving the economy of the stuff it needs and contributing to shortages and inflation. It's not just consumers and retailers that are affected: American exporters are complaining that shipping companies are so desperate to get containers back to China quickly that they're making the return trip across the Pacific without waiting to fill up containers with American-made products. That's bad news for those exporters — and for America's ballooning trade deficit.

As for when it's going to get better, none of the people we spoke to believes it'll be anytime soon. And it's not even considered peak season for the shipping industry yet. That typically begins in August, when American stores start building their inventories for the back-to-school and holiday seasons. The residents of Whidbey Island may have to continue dealing with the nuisance of gigantic, noisy ships cluttering up the horizon for the foreseeable future.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Anecdotally, trucking is in a similar "clusterfest". There aren't enough trucks/drivers.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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I've seen many reports of logistic nightmares since (but not related to) the overloaded tanker running aground in the Suez. I'm sure it's been a nightmare much longer. Probably for the whole duration of the chip shortage, which has been over a year. Probably the worst of all of them has been intercontinental shipping of perishables. I saw reports of tankers full of produce from Washington to Europe taking upwards of a month to arrive, essentially delivering rot and paying for the privilege. To add to the mess, logistics chains have historically supplements ship cargo with tacking on to commercial flights that have been largely non existent in the last year. Then you layer in interstate trucking, both for the health of the workers, and the restrictions on interstate travel to hotzones, and it gets F U G L Y.
There aren't enough trucks/drivers.
CDL? Drivers wanted signs are common in every industrial area I drive through.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

The trucking situation has been a problem for a few years. It has actually been driving a cottage industry of tech companies looking to push autonomous trucking as the solution. It'll probably arrive quicker than passenger autonomous driving at the rate of advancement there.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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LordMortis wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 11:10 am I've seen many reports of logistic nightmares since (but not related to) the overloaded tanker running aground in the Suez. I'm sure it's been a nightmare much longer. Probably for the whole duration of the chip shortage, which has been over a year. Probably the worst of all of them has been intercontinental shipping of perishables. I saw reports of tankers full of produce from Washington to Europe taking upwards of a month to arrive, essentially delivering rot and paying for the privilege.
Sadly, live animals are among the perishables being shipped-

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... -unchecked
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Re: The Viral Economy

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I couldn't get through that article. :(
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Politico
The federal eviction moratorium in place since September is set to expire Saturday, after the Biden administration refused to extend it and Democrats in Congress couldn't muster the votes to intervene. Now lawmakers and activists fear an unprecedented surge in evictions in the coming months just as the highly transmissible Delta variant causes a spike in coronavirus cases.
...
The Biden administration cited a Supreme Court decision last month that kept the ban in place until July 31 but made clear that a majority of justices believed the CDC was exceeding its legal authority.

Biden urged Congress to intervene and pass a new prohibition, but at least a dozen House Democrats revolted as landlords and other housing industry groups warned of their own economic hardships.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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A parent at my daughter's school caught her landlord stealing her mail and funneling her unemployment to himself. Like he called the state and had it direct deposited to his account. And yes, it only took a phone call and stolen mail to do so.

When she called him out on it, he said she owed it to him. Then he kicked her out.

We just got her a lawyer. This landlord took a federal felony and tacked on civil liability.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Go big or go home...?
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Re: The Viral Economy

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The Covid pandemic has cost the US $16 trillion. We must invest in public health—the costs of preparedness are a tiny fraction of the price of disaster.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Yeah - about that. :grund: :grund:

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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

I didn't know John Taffer was a deplorable, but I do thank him for sharing his views.


Laura Ingraham: "What if we just cut off the unemployment? Hunger is a pretty powerful thing."

Bar Rescue guy: "They only feed a military dog at night, because a hungry dog is an obedient dog. Well, if we are not causing people to be hungry to work..."
Advocating we actually starve people to get them back to work...in the middle of a raging pandemic.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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"I don't mean physical hunger". As if we didn't notice that she only realized how bad it sounded when the truth slipped out of her lips.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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That was disgusting in so many ways. They don't even have to be subtle anymore.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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I saw the headlines earlier this week and am only seeing an actual article now:
Unvaccinated Americans who were hospitalized with COVID-19 cost the U.S. health care system $2.3 billion in June and July, according to a new report from The Peterson Center on Healthcare and the Kaiser Family Foundation — and that’s “likely an understatement,” the researchers wrote.

The report analyzed CDC data, finding there were 37,000 preventable COVID hospitalizations in June and another 76,000 in July among unvaccinated adults in the U.S.

An average COVID hospitalization costs roughly $20,000, the report said, meaning “these largely avoidable hospitalizations have already cost the U.S. health system billions of dollars since the beginning of June.”

The report only focused on hospitalizations of adults in the U.S., as some children are still ineligible to receive the vaccine. An estimated 98.3% of the adults hospitalized due to COVID in June and July were unvaccinated, the report said.
Our decisions shouldn't be driven by medical expenditures, nor to I think the prices are "accurate" in the sense that we're talking about the American health care system. However, I do think it's important to consider that there is a literal cost to what's happening right now.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Integrated Benefits Institute
April 20, 2021 –To help US employers quantify the broader impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, health and productivity research non-profit Integrated Benefits Institute (IBI) conducted an analysis to estimate lost work time costs and found spending for absent workers due to the coronavirus is estimated to total $50.5 billion. This is a 117% increase from a previous analysis conducted this time last year that used a high-range scenario of 15 million cases, whereas the number of cases across the nation has now more than doubled. IBI’s assessment includes potential sick leave wages, short-term disability payments and spending on employee benefits.

The breakdown of costs is as follows:

Image
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Smoove_B wrote: Fri Aug 27, 2021 12:02 pm Our decisions shouldn't be driven by medical expenditures, nor to I think the prices are "accurate" in the sense that we're talking about the American health care system. However, I do think it's important to consider that there is a literal cost to what's happening right now.
Right. I'd be more than happy to see someone's vaccination status considered as part of a disability or unemployment claim. You didn't get vaccinated? You're not covered. We might need to make it hit over the head obvious that it is in their self-interest to act responsibly.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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LordMortis wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:16 amI'm plugged in too much. Having a computer at my fingers when I want a computer at fingers is good enough.
Reaching back a few pages as I catch up, but I agree with this. I think it's more common for tech workers - particularly ones with a decade or more of service under their belts - to want to shun overindulgence in technology off the clock. I still use my smart phone almost exclusively for basic communications and little else. The only consistent double-duty it does is with the Kindle app. I had a Kindle, but it's bigger and I couldn't find the logic in carrying two devices when one would do.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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Paingod wrote: Fri Aug 27, 2021 12:34 pm
LordMortis wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:16 amI'm plugged in too much. Having a computer at my fingers when I want a computer at fingers is good enough.
Reaching back a few pages as I catch up, but I agree with this. I think it's more common for tech workers - particularly ones with a decade or more of service under their belts - to want to shun overindulgence in technology off the clock. I still use my smart phone almost exclusively for basic communications and little else. The only consistent double-duty it does is with the Kindle app. I had a Kindle, but it's bigger and I couldn't find the logic in carrying two devices when one would do.
I'm not sure I concur - my cell is my portable computer and I use the that way a lot, both for work and recreation. I know it's anecdotal, but my team seems to be pretty much the same. I would have to totally rethink big parts of my life if you took my smartphone and replaced it with a dumb phone circa 2000.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by LordMortis »

gbasden wrote: Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:41 pm my team seems to be pretty much the same. I would have to totally rethink big parts of my life if you took my smartphone and replaced it with a dumb phone circa 2000.
I don't have a smart phone for work to have less work or work transferred to my phone. I have a smart phone for work for higher availability aka more work. Having a smart phone for more than that is just more time plugged in. I'm already plugged in 10-12 hours a day most days. I do like the GPS though.
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Re: The Viral Economy

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LordMortis wrote: Fri Aug 27, 2021 8:26 pm
gbasden wrote: Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:41 pm my team seems to be pretty much the same. I would have to totally rethink big parts of my life if you took my smartphone and replaced it with a dumb phone circa 2000.
I don't have a smart phone for work to have less work or work transferred to my phone. I have a smart phone for work for higher availability aka more work. Having a smart phone for more than that is just more time plugged in. I'm already plugged in 10-12 hours a day most days. I do like the GPS though.
My work is going to be what it is regardless. My phone allows me the freedom to deal with things from anywhere. If I want to go to the grocery store in the middle of the day, I can. If I want to take the car to the dealership, I can. I'm not chained to my desk. I can go to the gym and work out while monitoring my email. It gives me a tremendous amount of freedom. And having portable entertainment is really fantastic!
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by hitbyambulance »

Paingod wrote: Fri Aug 27, 2021 12:34 pm I had a Kindle, but it's bigger and I couldn't find the logic in carrying two devices when one would do.
e-ink is way easier on the eyes for reading.. i don’t like reading on LED displays
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Re: The Viral Economy

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CNBC
Job creation for August was a huge disappointment, with the economy adding just 235,000 positions, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 720,000 new hires.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by stessier »

Perhaps related - Chick-Fil-A around me has upped it's starting wage for full time workers to $17.50/hr.
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by malchior »

Luckily we have Joe Manchin writing op eds worrying about too much stimulus when the economy is already stalling. We are about to repeat the mistakes of 2011. And it is all in service to play tax defense for his filthy rich peers. :roll:
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Smoove_B »

Another possible indicator of the viral economy:


‘The pay is absolute crap’: Child-care workers are quitting rapidly, a red flag for the economy
From the linked article:
“Childcare is a textbook example of a broken market,” said Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, a mother herself. She pointed out that families pay, on average, 13 percent of their income on child-care for young kids, yet day care workers earn so little they rank in the bottom 2 percent of all professions. Biden has proposed the largest federal investment ever in child-care in an effort to transform the sector.

...

The numbers are staggering: The child-care services industry is still down 126,700 workers — more than a 10 percent decline from pre-pandemic levels, Labor Department data shows. While many industries complain they can’t find enough workers, the hiring situation is more dire in child-care than restaurants right now.

Young women in their late teens and 20s who are typically drawn to work at day-care centers are opting instead to take jobs as administrative assistants, retail clerks and bank tellers, according to interviews with former workers and day care owners. Veteran child-care workers are quitting. One day care worker interviewed for this article quit in the past week. Several others indicated they are contemplating exiting soon. More than 10,000 workers have left the industry since June, Labor Department data show.
So what's happening?
The reason child-care centers pay less than service sector jobs is tied to their business model. Staffing costs are by far the biggest budget item at day-care centers, as many must abide by local laws that mandate one caregiver per three to five kids, depending on the ages of the kids and the area of the country. Childcare labor costs can be as much as 50 to 60 percent of a day care budget, according to a Treasury report. By contrast, restaurant labor costs tend to be about 30 percent of their budgets.

A study conducted during the pandemic by Philip Sirinides, director of the Institute of State and Regional Affairs at Penn State Harrisburg, found labor costs account for 80 percent of a child-care center’s budget. Raising pay for workers typically requires hiking fees for parents.
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Isgrimnur
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Isgrimnur »

Childcare facilities don’t have restaurant food costs.
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10% real fruit juice, motherfuckers!!
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Carpet_pissr
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Re: The Viral Economy

Post by Carpet_pissr »

Isgrimnur wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 4:40 pm Childcare facilities don’t have restaurant food costs.
Obviously someone hasn’t priced “orange drink” and ring cookies lately.
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