The Viral Economy

[Kraken]

Hmmm, I wonder if/how that applies to the owner and sole employee of my own corporation. Can I furlough myself? (I really will be without work after April.)

If you are employee and pay yourself a salary, you should be ok. The real question is about sole proprietors, who don't have a separate corporate entity such they can be considered an employee.

I am, and I do -- it's a percentage of highly variable gross revenue, and it's W-2 income. I just got word of a potential new income stream editing COVID news, though, so I hope to keep working through Q2.

[malchior]

It's starting to look like the Dems cut a *great* deal. The outlines are 4-months of 100% pay to furloughed workers. That'll take pressure off Governors who want to shutdown. That might really help. The companies will still be hurting and we'll have an inflation monster to deal with but anything helps.

No, I disagree, I don't see an inflation problem at all. Inflation usually occurs when there's too much money chasing too few goods. People are going to be spending money on mortgages, rent, car payments, etc. I don't think there's going to be a lot of spending on computers, iPhones, big screen tv's, etc., because of the unsure economic situation. The money will just be replacing normal earnings, it's not priming or pumping the economy up past where it would normally be for the most part.

I agree to a degree. It won't be uniform across the economy which is what I was getting at in the earlier post. I think there will be some hot spots in some areas of the economy. I could see a counter being there are always a few spots where capacity isn't meeting demand. However, this crisis is potentially creating some very hot spots. And yes as you noted some of the excess cash will just pile up as demand for other products falls steeply. That however is a cash supply to chase diminishing goods if things get bad. I think the areas where we'll see it are in certain manufacturing sectors where raw material supply chains have been disrupted.

I'll jump into one as a thought experiment. I also have good knowledge since my wife is in the business. Personal care products like soap/deodorant. There is tons of demand. It has exploded. Her factory is running 24/7 at the moment. However, they are running into capacity issues due to raw material shortages/worker shortages. Especially bottles. Bottles are almost all manufactured overseas. Prices are already starting to flare up there. Counteracting that is the big players there are dollar stores/grocery store and they'll be trying to hold the line on price. However eventually the manufacturers are going to have to push price up. It's pretty much a given since these are steep demand curves right now. That is unless the situation resolves relatively quickly. If it happens, this crisis will be odd because the inflationary pressure I suspect will be in commodity staples which has got to be a first in modern times.

[Smoove_B]

If it happens, this crisis will be odd because the inflationary pressure I suspect will be in commodity staples which has got to be a first in modern times.

Classic beer game stuff. We're learning about the "just in time" issues with our economy.

[malchior]

If it happens, this crisis will be odd because the inflationary pressure I suspect will be in commodity staples which has got to be a first in modern times.

Classic beer game stuff. We're learning about the "just in time" issues with our economy.

I'm seeing major disruption with Amazon in my neighborhood. I posted in EBG but essentially nothing will arrive to me before 4/22. I can't imagine what it takes to see Amazon fall over. That's wild.

[Daehawk]

Its at a time like this I wish something was made in America raw materials and all.

Ive looked at some places online like Amazon but I never see any stock. before all this started though Id see stuff at Amazon..especially food items.....that were listed at say $30 but in town i could get for $4. I couldn't believe it. Now I dont even see needed items like TP and such or where to find them. Ill bet they cost a fortune though.

Needs to be a website that is constantly updated with stores and stock and shipments. Something all these mom and pops can log into and post updates too also.

[malchior]

From my derp feed - bonus points for mentioning Obamaphones.

Just some of the pork in the Drunken Nancy proposal.

Pelosi's pork ...

$100,000,000 to Nasa
$20,000,000,000 to the USPS for debt restructuring
$300,000,000 to the Endowment for the Arts
$300,000,000 for the Endowment for the Humanities/ because no one even knew that was a thing
$15,000,000 for Veterans Employment Training / for when the GI Bill isn't enough
$435,000,000 for mental health support
$30,000,000,000 for the Department of Education stabilization fund
$200,000,000 to Safe Schools Emergency Response to Violence Program
$300,000,000 to Public Broadcasting / NPR has to be bought by the dems
$500,000,000 to Museums and Libraries
$720,000,000 to Social Security Admin / but get this only 200,000,000 is to help people. The rest is for admin costs
$25,000,000 for Cleaning supplies for the Capitol Building / I shit you not it's on page 136
$7,500,000 to the Smithsonian for additional salaries
$35,000,000 to the JFK Center for performing Arts
$25,000,000 for additional salary for House of Representatives
$3,000,000,000 upgrade to the IT department at the VA
$315,000,000 for State Department Diplomatic Programs
$95,000,000 for the Agency of International Development
$300,000,000 for International Disaster Assistance
$300,000,000 for Migrant and Refugee Assistance pg 147
$90,000,000 for the Peace Corp pg 148
$13,000,000 to Howard University pg 121
9,000,000 Misc Senate Expenses pg 134
$100,000,000 to Essential Air carriers pg 162 This of note because the Airlines are going to need billions in loans to keep them afloat.
$40,000,000,000 goes to the Take Responsibility to Workers and Families Act. This sounds like it's direct payments for workers. Pg 164
$1,000,000,000 Airlines Recycle and Save Program pg 163
$25,000,000 to the FAA for administrative costs pg 165
$492,000,000 to National Railroad Passenger Corporation (Amtrak) pg 167
$526,000,000 Grants to Amtrak to remain available if needed through 2021 pg 168
Hidden on page 174 the Secretary has 7 days to allocate the funds & notify Congress
$25,000,000,000 for Transit Infrastructure pg 169
$3,000,000 Maritime Administration pg 172
$5,000,000 Salaries and Expensive Office of the Inspector General pg 172
No voter ID to get a ballot, & anonymous “ballot harvesting” pg 650
$2,500,000 Public and Indian Housing pg 175
$5,000,000 Community Planning and Development pg 175
$2,500,000 Office of Housing
$1,500,000,000 Tenant-Based Rental Assistance Office of Public and Indian Housing. 1,000,000,000 of which can be used as "additional administrative and other expenses". pg 176
$720,000,000 to the public housing fund pg 177
$100,000,000 for Community Block Grants for Native Americans pg 183
$250,000,000 for Housing Block Grants for Tribes pg 182
$130,000,000 for AIDS Housing pg 185
$20,000,000 of which goes to one time grantees whatever the hell that means pg 186
$15,000,000,000 for the Community Development Fund pg 188
Only $10,000,000 of which is set aside for infrastructure for fighting infectious disease pg 191
$5,000,000,000 in Homeless Assistance pg 193
$100,000,000,000 for Rental Assistance - pg 198
An additional $7,000,000 enforce the Fair Housing Act - 203
Paid Family Leave for Sickness is 2 paid work weeks pg 213
$1,000,000,000 for more Obamaphones!
This shows me that they don't really think this is a big deal. Business as usual. Use a crisis to rob us blind
$227,000,000 for grants to States for youth 2 activities pg 80
$261,000,000 for grants to States for dislocated worker employment and training activities, including supportive services and needs-related payments; pg 80
$10,000,000 for Migrant and Seasonal
Farmworker programs...WTF??
$100,000,000 for ‘‘Job Corps’’,
$15,000,000 for ‘‘Program Administration’’,
$6,500,000, to the ‘‘Wage and Hour Division’’,
$30,000,000, to OSHA
$10,000,000 for Susan Harwood training grants
$1,300,000,000, for ‘‘Primary Health Care’’,
$75,000,000, for ‘‘Student Aid Administration’’,
$9,500,000,000, for ‘‘Higher Education’’,

[MonkeyFinger]

I had no idea what the heck an "Obamaphone" might be, found this on Snopes. Huh.

[malchior]

I had no idea what the heck an "Obamaphone" might be, found this on Snopes. Huh.

That just means you have been blessed with less exposure to racist dog whistles.

[Daehawk]

I love my Obamaphone. In truth me and my wife had a free phone since about 2012. They upgraded me last year. And no never heard of the brand but it works as a phone and thats all I care about a phone.

[Grifman]

If it happens, this crisis will be odd because the inflationary pressure I suspect will be in commodity staples which has got to be a first in modern times.

Classic beer game stuff. We're learning about the "just in time" issues with our economy.

I'm seeing major disruption with Amazon in my neighborhood. I posted in EBG but essentially nothing will arrive to me before 4/22. I can't imagine what it takes to see Amazon fall over. That's wild.

They are not falling over. Because people are staying at home, they are ordering a ton of stuff online, much more than the usual volume. That's what's driving this - these are delays, not disruptions.

[malchior]

If it happens, this crisis will be odd because the inflationary pressure I suspect will be in commodity staples which has got to be a first in modern times.

Classic beer game stuff. We're learning about the "just in time" issues with our economy.

I'm seeing major disruption with Amazon in my neighborhood. I posted in EBG but essentially nothing will arrive to me before 4/22. I can't imagine what it takes to see Amazon fall over. That's wild.

They are not falling over. Because people are staying at home, they are ordering a ton of stuff online, much more than the usual volume. That's what's driving this - these are delays, not disruptions.

A *month* to deliver anything I order versus same day is pretty disruptive.

Edit: Also this wasn't just me. I checked with a few folks. We found some odd quirks but generally speaking this was seen widespread across NJ (amongst) my friends and a few out towards Bethlehem and Wilkes-Barre, PA. I actually expect this is a wrinkle and they'll work it out FWIW but this is pretty extreme.

[Smoove_B]

I said it in the Prime thread. I think this is an artificial delay they put in place to "load balance" anything deemed "non-essential". I don't think this is an actual disruption and I don't actually believe it will take them a month to send you Captain Marvel bedsheets (not judging).

[malchior]

I said it in the Prime thread. I think this is an artificial delay they put in place to "load balance" anything deemed "non-essential". I don't think this is an actual disruption and I don't actually believe it will take them a month to send you Captain Marvel bedsheets (not judging).

I thought this was the case too. I tried a bunch of different products. Even food items and health items. All the same it was just an interesting observation to me. Like I said it there were odd quirks that make me think it is last mile problem because deliveries to Amazon lockers (where size permits) are much faster (1 week out or so). I wasn't even shopping - my co-worker pinged me and then I had a few people check. Still anyway, it doesn't worry me. It's just crazy that demand is that high.

[Kraken]

If it happens, this crisis will be odd because the inflationary pressure I suspect will be in commodity staples which has got to be a first in modern times.

Classic beer game stuff. We're learning about the "just in time" issues with our economy.

I'm seeing major disruption with Amazon in my neighborhood. I posted in EBG but essentially nothing will arrive to me before 4/22. I can't imagine what it takes to see Amazon fall over. That's wild.

They are not falling over. Because people are staying at home, they are ordering a ton of stuff online, much more than the usual volume. That's what's driving this - these are delays, not disruptions.

In my day, we mailed in box tops and allowed 6-8 weeks for delivery. It'll get there when it gets there.

Does Amazon allow one to pay for expedited delivery? Rich people should never have to wait.

[malchior]

If it happens, this crisis will be odd because the inflationary pressure I suspect will be in commodity staples which has got to be a first in modern times.

Classic beer game stuff. We're learning about the "just in time" issues with our economy.

I'm seeing major disruption with Amazon in my neighborhood. I posted in EBG but essentially nothing will arrive to me before 4/22. I can't imagine what it takes to see Amazon fall over. That's wild.

They are not falling over. Because people are staying at home, they are ordering a ton of stuff online, much more than the usual volume. That's what's driving this - these are delays, not disruptions.

In my day, we mailed in box tops and allowed 6-8 weeks for delivery. It'll get there when it gets there.

Does Amazon allow one to pay for expedited delivery? Rich people should never have to wait.

No these delays are egalitarian. Either they have it in the local warehouse or you wait! To the glorious revolution!

[LawBeefaroni]

I said it in the Prime thread. I think this is an artificial delay they put in place to "load balance" anything deemed "non-essential". I don't think this is an actual disruption and I don't actually believe it will take them a month to send you Captain Marvel bedsheets (not judging).

I thought this was the case too. I tried a bunch of different products. Even food items and health items. All the same it was just an interesting observation to me. Like I said it there were odd quirks that make me think it is last mile problem because deliveries to Amazon lockers (where size permits) are much faster (1 week out or so). I wasn't even shopping - my co-worker pinged me and then I had a few people check. Still anyway, it doesn't worry me. It's just crazy that demand is that high.

I'm getting with March 28 or April 22 for almost everything.


Gerber knives: 3/28
Ramune sodas:3/28
Crayola Markers: 3/28
Pistol grip cover: 3/28

Cat food: 4/5-6

HDMI cables : 4/22
Kid's maze book: 4/22
Yahamaha keyboard: 4/22


The weird thing is that if I go through my past orders, most of it is now 4/22. HDMI cables and book above being two that were delivered in 5 days this past Sunday. The keyboard I got a month ago. I suspect it's local warehouse vs non-local but it sure feels like they're saying, "You already have that!"

[Grifman]

They are not falling over. Because people are staying at home, they are ordering a ton of stuff online, much more than the usual volume. That's what's driving this - these are delays, not disruptions.

A *month* to deliver anything I order versus same day is pretty disruptive.

Call it what you want, the point is, the system is still working and not falling apart, which is what you seemed to be implying. Apologies if that is not what you meant.

[Daehawk]

Does it tell you delivery dates before you order? I hope so.

I saw where Facebook is barely keeping it's lights on. Said where other companies have seen a 50% increase or so that FB has seen a 1000% increase in use. And with almost all workers now trying to work securely from home its a big mess. Also saw where years ago they were warned about them requiring face to face meetings and such. Even having to fly in from other states and countries for a simple meeting. Now its biting them in the ass.

[GungHo]

Haven't read the first few links yet but just wanted to let y'all know about an interview on the Michael Smerconish show on Sirius XM. It was last Friday with an economist from the university of Wyoming I believe and they talked about this. She said in their calculations they typically use a value of $9-10 million when valuing a human life. She ultimately concluded that preserving life now over attempting to preserve the economy, was the 'smart move' economically speaking.

Anyway if u have it the interview is on the app. His first segment from last Friday. It might appear at some point on either his Facebook page or his website (I dunno if it will).

My question is, after we've already put these social distancing measures in place and we've really been hammering that idea, how do we suddenly 'go back to normal'? Just speaking for myself, I'm not going to be rushing back into restaurants just bc trump (Lmao) said it's ok now. That guy has zero credibility with at least 50% of the population and they're not going to believe him either; and it certainly doesn't sound like any medical professional will be giving the all clear on 4/6 (because we'd need to wait for a Monday, the virus takes those off). So how does the economy come back if half the population is still playing it cautious?

Was a very interesting article I read and I can't remember for the life of me where, but it graphed out the city of St Louis' response to the 1918 flu. They social distanced for a month, saw a decrease in cases and sounded the all clear, immediately saw another uptick that then spiked higher than the initial outbreak (the double bump we've all heard about) and social distanced again for another month before it truly was ok.

What evidence do we have that we should expect anything other than that, now?

[Blackhawk]

I'm pretty sure that Amazon is high-balling the dates to give themselves breathing room to prioritize other stuff. They're saying a month so that they can put your stuff on the back burner and fulfill more vital stuff. Most of it still goes out much sooner, and gets delivered well in advance of that, but they don't have people contacting support on every order because it is late.

[malchior]

They are not falling over. Because people are staying at home, they are ordering a ton of stuff online, much more than the usual volume. That's what's driving this - these are delays, not disruptions.

A *month* to deliver anything I order versus same day is pretty disruptive.

Call it what you want, the point is, the system is still working and not falling apart, which is what you seemed to be implying. Apologies if that is not what you meant.

I wasn't implying that they are falling apart.

[malchior]

I said it in the Prime thread. I think this is an artificial delay they put in place to "load balance" anything deemed "non-essential". I don't think this is an actual disruption and I don't actually believe it will take them a month to send you Captain Marvel bedsheets (not judging).

I thought this was the case too. I tried a bunch of different products. Even food items and health items. All the same it was just an interesting observation to me. Like I said it there were odd quirks that make me think it is last mile problem because deliveries to Amazon lockers (where size permits) are much faster (1 week out or so). I wasn't even shopping - my co-worker pinged me and then I had a few people check. Still anyway, it doesn't worry me. It's just crazy that demand is that high.

I'm getting with March 28 or April 22 for almost everything.


Gerber knives: 3/28
Ramune sodas:3/28
Crayola Markers: 3/28
Pistol grip cover: 3/28

Cat food: 4/5-6

HDMI cables : 4/22
Kid's maze book: 4/22
Yahamaha keyboard: 4/22


The weird thing is that if I go through my past orders, most of it is now 4/22. HDMI cables and book above being two that were delivered in 5 days this past Sunday. The keyboard I got a month ago. I suspect it's local warehouse vs non-local but it sure feels like they're saying, "You already have that!"

I was talking about it in EBG thread and some of my friends and I were playing around. Found several variables but agree it essentially comes to what is in your local warehouse. With a possible exception for the whole foods network.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

It's starting to look like the Dems cut a *great* deal. The outlines are 4-months of 100% pay to furloughed workers.

I was under the impression from some friends of mine who work in the federal government that after the last furlough a deal was reached to ensure that federal employees would always be paid when future furloughs happen. But if there's a provision in the bill specifically for furloughed federal employees, that must not be the case?

[El Guapo]

It's starting to look like the Dems cut a *great* deal. The outlines are 4-months of 100% pay to furloughed workers.

I was under the impression from some friends of mine who work in the federal government that after the last furlough a deal was reached to ensure that federal employees would always be paid when future furloughs happen. But if there's a provision in the bill specifically for furloughed federal employees, that must not be the case?

My understanding of that bill was that it covered federal pay in the event of government shutdowns. I don't know anything about this bill, but I'm guessing that this is different because this wouldn't be under a government shutdown.

[Ralph-Wiggum]

Ah, that makes sense.

[El Guapo]

[Holman]

Numbers out today are staggering. 3.3 million new unemployment claims, dwarfing anything seen during our lifetimes.

And that's with reports that the WH was putting pressure on states to suppress their numbers.

[El Guapo]

Yeah, plus claim phonelines were reported swamped, making it hard to report claims. There are several reasons why the true number is probably higher than this. Plus this number is already horrific - the previous record for claims in one month was 695,000 in 1982.

[malchior]

We knew it was bad but this was way past the worst case predicted in the press. However, the futures market is slightly down indicating that this was likely priced in. This is really ugly. I know a ton of people who got laid off and they all think they'll be up and running in a month.

Edit: Anecdote from the live event world. Many live event companies literally shut down in place. The gear for events is just sitting at venues because there is no one to move them and no one needs the venue.

[Paingod]

We knew it was bad but this was way past the worst case predicted in the press.

I don't know how it could be anything else. If a business isn't shut down, they're likely running light on staff, with some exceptions. We're "essential" but running with an absolute skeleton crew; we laid off 80% of our people a week ago... and we're not a hard-hit state (yet).

[Blackhawk]

What's scary from my end is what's going to happen when this is over. The job market suddenly getting flooded with millions of workers, all at the same time, while business are reopening left and right. Will it be easier to get a job? Or impossible? Michelle is back in a seasonal job, and needs to start looking for something permanent, probably starting in July or August, or else she'll be out of work in October and we'll be screwed. That puts her job hunt in the middle of the likely rush, and she had huge problems finding anything last year when things were actually good for job hunting.

[Paingod]

What's scary from my end is what's going to happen when this is over. The job market suddenly getting flooded with millions of workers, all at the same time, while business are reopening left and right. Will it be easier to get a job? Or impossible?

What I believe will happen is a bizarre staggered sort-of-partial-comeback with some states going first and others trying to catch up, creating a disparity between competitors who may have been even before. Companies may take the opportunity to plunder opposition's clients and supplies before they can effectively get back to them, creating a sucking chest wound that they may not recover from. Smaller businesses, local shops and stores, should be fine. I think. I really don't know, and am not an economist.

So I think we'll see the local places regain footing easily, but the regional companies are going to be reeling or tanking as they cut each others' throats. They may not even intend to. When Company X needs widgets and their normal Supplier Z isn't back up and running but Supplier Y is, who would they buy from to get themselves going again?

[Isgrimnur]

Lay the groundwork now. Don't stop job searching. If she gets a hit before October on a permanent job, take it.

[wonderpug]

What's scary from my end is what's going to happen when this is over. The job market suddenly getting flooded with millions of workers, all at the same time, while business are reopening left and right. Will it be easier to get a job? Or impossible? Michelle is back in a seasonal job, and needs to start looking for something permanent, probably starting in July or August, or else she'll be out of work in October and we'll be screwed. That puts her job hunt in the middle of the likely rush, and she had huge problems finding anything last year when things were actually good for job hunting.

If there was ever a time for the country to push for universal healthcare and a guaranteed basic income, this is it. I’m really curious to see someone do a cost comparison between the current multi-trillion stimulus and Bernie’s “who’s going to pay for it it’ll never work” crazy ideas.

[Grifman]

Pelosi's pork ...

I can't speak for every item but not all of this is pork. Two examples:

1) Aid to Howard University. Howard chartered by the federal govt and receives most of its funding from the federal govt. The money here is to maintain employment there, so people don't get laid off. Congress is responsible so Congress is providing a fix.

2) In a similar way, the Kennedy Center is not regular govt entity. It is managed directly by Congress and funded by Congress and ticket sales. Since ticket sales no longer exist, then they will be forced to lay off people due to the revenue shortfall. Again, Congress is appropriating this money so that employees are not laid off from an institution for which Congress is directly responsible.

There is definitely some pork here. But you'd really need to know what is going on in line by line basis and understand what is exactly going on before labeling all of this as pork.

[El Guapo]

Pelosi's pork ...

I can't speak for every item but not all of this is pork. Two examples:

1) Aid to Howard University. Howard chartered by the federal govt and receives most of its funding from the federal govt. The money here is to maintain employment there, so people don't get laid off. Congress is responsible so Congress is providing a fix.

2) In a similar way, the Kennedy Center is not regular govt entity. It is managed directly by Congress and funded by Congress and ticket sales. Since ticket sales no longer exist, then they will be forced to lay off people due to the revenue shortfall. Again, Congress is appropriating this money so that employees are not laid off from an institution for which Congress is directly responsible.

There is definitely some pork here. But you'd really need to know what is going on in line by line basis and understand what is exactly going on before labeling all of this as pork.

You're taking this too seriously. The point of the list is just to say "Democrats are taking this 'crisis' and using it to take your money and give it to lazy dark-skinned people, and some to liberal elites".

[Grifman]

What's scary from my end is what's going to happen when this is over. The job market suddenly getting flooded with millions of workers, all at the same time, while business are reopening left and right. Will it be easier to get a job? Or impossible? Michelle is back in a seasonal job, and needs to start looking for something permanent, probably starting in July or August, or else she'll be out of work in October and we'll be screwed. That puts her job hunt in the middle of the likely rush, and she had huge problems finding anything last year when things were actually good for job hunting.

Why would you be screwed? If out of work, she'll be eligible for regular state unemployment insurance plus $600/week in "enhanced" federal unemployment benefits (which runs for 4 months). I think the state benefits have been extended for an additional 13 weeks. All of that should help.

[Grifman]

Here's a pretty detailed link that explains the details of the Senate economic relief bill:

https://www.steptoe.com/en/news-publica ... s-act.html

[Grifman]

What I believe will happen is a bizarre staggered sort-of-partial-comeback with some states going first and others trying to catch up, creating a disparity between competitors who may have been even before. Companies may take the opportunity to plunder opposition's clients and supplies before they can effectively get back to them, creating a sucking chest wound that they may not recover from. Smaller businesses, local shops and stores, should be fine. I think. I really don't know, and am not an economist.

So I think we'll see the local places regain footing easily, but the regional companies are going to be reeling or tanking as they cut each others' throats. They may not even intend to. When Company X needs widgets and their normal Supplier Z isn't back up and running but Supplier Y is, who would they buy from to get themselves going again?

These are excellent points that I've not seen anyone bring up before.

[Paingod]

What I believe will happen is a bizarre staggered sort-of-partial-comeback with some states going first and others trying to catch up, creating a disparity between competitors who may have been even before. Companies may take the opportunity to plunder opposition's clients and supplies before they can effectively get back to them, creating a sucking chest wound that they may not recover from. Smaller businesses, local shops and stores, should be fine. I think. I really don't know, and am not an economist.

So I think we'll see the local places regain footing easily, but the regional companies are going to be reeling or tanking as they cut each others' throats. They may not even intend to. When Company X needs widgets and their normal Supplier Z isn't back up and running but Supplier Y is, who would they buy from to get themselves going again?

These are excellent points that I've not seen anyone bring up before.

I think too much, usually not about happy things.