Octopus Overlords

On the second Friday in June, a group of political operatives, former government and military officials, and academics quietly convened online for what became a disturbing exercise in the fragility of American democracy.

The group, which included Democrats and Republicans, gathered to game out possible results of the November election, grappling with questions that seem less far-fetched by the day: What if President Trump refuses to concede a loss, as he publicly hinted recently he might do? How far could he go to preserve his power? And what if Democrats refuse to give in?

“All of our scenarios ended in both street-level violence and political impasse,” said Rosa Brooks, a Georgetown law professor and former Defense Department official who co-organized the group known as the Transition Integrity Project. She described what they found in bleak terms: “The law is essentially ... it’s almost helpless against a president who’s willing to ignore it.”

Using a role-playing game that is a fixture of military and national security planning, the group envisioned a dark 11 weeks between Election Day and Inauguration Day, one in which Trump and his Republican allies used every apparatus of government — the Postal Service, state lawmakers, the Justice Department, federal agents, and the military — to hold onto power, and Democrats took to the courts and the streets to try to stop it.

If it sounds paranoid or outlandish — a war room of seasoned politicos and constitutional experts playing a Washington version of Dungeons and Dragons in which the future of the republic hangs in the balance — they get it. But, as they finalize a report on what they learned and begin briefing elected officials and others, they insist their warning is serious: A close election this fall is likely to be contested, and there are few guardrails to stop a constitutional crisis, particularly if Trump flexes the considerable tools at his disposal to give himself an advantage.

“He doesn’t have to win the election,” said Nils Gilman, a historian who leads research at a think tank called the Berggruen Institute and was an organizer of the exercise. “He just has to create a plausible narrative that he didn’t lose.”

...

Brooks got the seed of the idea for the Transition Integrity Project after a dinner where a federal judge and a corporate lawyer each told her they were convinced the military or the Secret Service would have to escort Trump out of office if he lost the election and would not concede. Brooks wasn’t so sure. She and Gilman decided to turn the Washington parlor game into an actual exercise; they held an early meeting in Washington, with about 25 people, in December.

“When we started talking about this we got a lot of reactions — oh, you guys are so paranoid, don’t be ridiculous, this isn’t going to happen,” Brooks said.

Two things have happened since then: Trump has displayed increased willingness to challenge mail-in ballots, and his administration has deployed federal forces to quell protests in front of the White House and in Portland, Ore., and has threatened to do so in other cities.

“That has really shaken people,” Brooks said. “What was really a fringe idea has now become an anxiety that’s pretty widely shared.”

...

Each scenario involved a different election outcome: An unclear result on Election Day that looked increasingly like a Biden win as more ballots were counted; a clear Biden win in the popular vote and the Electoral College; an Electoral College win for Trump with Biden winning the popular vote by 5 percentage points; and a narrow Electoral College and popular vote victory for Biden.

In the scenarios, the team playing the Trump campaign often questioned the legitimacy of mail-in ballots, which often boosted Biden as they came in — shutting down post offices, pursuing litigation, and using right-wing media to amplify narratives about a stolen election.

To some participants, the game was a stark reminder of the power of incumbency.

“The more demonstrations there were, the more demands for recounts, the more legal challenges there were, the more funerals for democracy were held, the more Trump came across as the candidate of stability,” said Edward Luce, the US editor of the Financial Times, who played the role of a mainstream media reporter during one of the simulations. “Possession is nine-tenths of the law.”

...

“The Constitution really has been a workable document in many respects because we have had people who more or less adhered to a code of conduct,” said retired Army Colonel Larry Wilkerson, a Republican and former chief of staff to Colin Powell who participated in games as an observer. “That seems to no longer to be the case. That changes everything.”

“With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history," Trump tweeted. "It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???”

Fireball wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:04 am as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:10 amDo we trust them not to?

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:10 am

Fireball wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:04 am as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.

What is they decide not to certify the results? Can they do that?

Do we trust them not to?

Pyperkub wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:39 pm I think we really, really need a blowout election (for a ton of reasons). The partisan edge violence seems to be escalating and I'm expecting that the lies/misinformation/FUD machine will be in full force if there is any way to spin the election. IMHO, Trump will claim it anyways, as he already does for 2016, even tho Hillary gracefully conceded. While Biden is far more likely not to contest a close election than Trump, given 2000 and 2016, there will be a ton of pressure for him not to be Gentleman Joe and fight for what is right.

As the OP indicates, none of the close election scenarios play out well for the Country.

Remus West wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:48 pm

Pyperkub wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:39 pm I think we really, really need a blowout election (for a ton of reasons). The partisan edge violence seems to be escalating and I'm expecting that the lies/misinformation/FUD machine will be in full force if there is any way to spin the election. IMHO, Trump will claim it anyways, as he already does for 2016, even tho Hillary gracefully conceded. While Biden is far more likely not to contest a close election than Trump, given 2000 and 2016, there will be a ton of pressure for him not to be Gentleman Joe and fight for what is right.

As the OP indicates, none of the close election scenarios play out well for the Country.

If Biden concedes while there while there is any shadow of a doubt regarding the outcome ala Gore I will be pissed. Mostly because I do not think there is a chance in hell of it being close in a fair election so if it is close then the shenanigans are the only reason tRump doesn't lose a blow out.

Fireball wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:57 pm

Remus West wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:48 pm

Pyperkub wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:39 pm I think we really, really need a blowout election (for a ton of reasons). The partisan edge violence seems to be escalating and I'm expecting that the lies/misinformation/FUD machine will be in full force if there is any way to spin the election. IMHO, Trump will claim it anyways, as he already does for 2016, even tho Hillary gracefully conceded. While Biden is far more likely not to contest a close election than Trump, given 2000 and 2016, there will be a ton of pressure for him not to be Gentleman Joe and fight for what is right.

As the OP indicates, none of the close election scenarios play out well for the Country.

If Biden concedes while there while there is any shadow of a doubt regarding the outcome ala Gore I will be pissed. Mostly because I do not think there is a chance in hell of it being close in a fair election so if it is close then the shenanigans are the only reason tRump doesn't lose a blow out.

Gore didn't concede until the election was completely over and Bush had unquestionably won, however tainted that win might have been. There were no more avenues to pursue victory through. Unless you mean the meaningless phone call he placed when the networks called Florida for Bush on Election Night?

Remus West wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:06 pm

Fireball wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:57 pm

Remus West wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:48 pm

Pyperkub wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:39 pm I think we really, really need a blowout election (for a ton of reasons). The partisan edge violence seems to be escalating and I'm expecting that the lies/misinformation/FUD machine will be in full force if there is any way to spin the election. IMHO, Trump will claim it anyways, as he already does for 2016, even tho Hillary gracefully conceded. While Biden is far more likely not to contest a close election than Trump, given 2000 and 2016, there will be a ton of pressure for him not to be Gentleman Joe and fight for what is right.

As the OP indicates, none of the close election scenarios play out well for the Country.

If Biden concedes while there while there is any shadow of a doubt regarding the outcome ala Gore I will be pissed. Mostly because I do not think there is a chance in hell of it being close in a fair election so if it is close then the shenanigans are the only reason tRump doesn't lose a blow out.

Gore didn't concede until the election was completely over and Bush had unquestionably won, however tainted that win might have been. There were no more avenues to pursue victory through. Unless you mean the meaningless phone call he placed when the networks called Florida for Bush on Election Night?

irrc there was a lot of talk about the SC being asked to look at the voting in Florida. I could be wrong though as, at the time, I was sad but acceptant of the outcome.

Archinerd wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:16 pm Why would we need to delay anything? Coronavirus is a hoax!

YellowKing wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:38 pm Yeah honestly I wish the media would stop jumping through the hoops he sets up for them. He knows good and well that tweeting out election delay bullshit is going to get every news outlet in a tizzy. He's the ultimate troll, stop feeding him.

Fireball wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:04 am I have faith in our military's leaders to stand by the Constitution and remove Donald Trump from office at the end of his term on January 20 if he does not willingly leave, provided he does not receive 270 Electoral College votes as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.

Jaymann wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:21 pm As long as he leaves. If he flat out refuses I would fear for his health.

Jaymann wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:21 pm As long as he leaves. If he flat out refuses I would fear for his health.

Holman wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:54 am Trump will be lured out of the White House with the promise of a presidential reality show on OANN.

LordMortis wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:06 am

Holman wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:54 am Trump will be lured out of the White House with the promise of a presidential reality show on OANN.

Lord, that does not sound far fetched. He gets some sort of major minority interest in the network and then it leverages cable providers (pandering to an aging suburban non cord cutting populace) as a replacement for the Newsmax and Fox and then conducts Russian propaganda to consumers of "Conservative" news.

That sounds like a very plausible scenario.

Holman wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:54 am Trump will be lured out of the White House with the promise of a presidential reality show on OANN.

gameoverman wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:55 pm

Fireball wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:04 am I have faith in our military's leaders to stand by the Constitution and remove Donald Trump from office at the end of his term on January 20 if he does not willingly leave, provided he does not receive 270 Electoral College votes as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.

Remember back in June when he did his photo op? I'm pretty sure that Joint Chiefs guy was walking with him. In addition, now Trump is using 'federal agents' instead of military to do his bidding. I can foresee a worst case scenario where Trump claims fraud and tells the public he's going to remain President until the fraud is sorted out. This obviously won't happen any time soon because of the pandemic complicating things. Meanwhile he uses federal agents to secure his position. These agents have shown, in Portland, that they'll follow his orders. Meanwhile the military doesn't help Trump, not wanting to operate on US soil against civilians but the military also does not move against him. Their excuse will be he's their commander in chief as long as he's President, and it's up to the legislative or judicial branch to sort out the election.

At that point, who gets the job of removing him from the White House? Who would have the authority to give the 'go' command for that operation?

Best case scenario in my opinion would be Trump loses the election, he claims fraud just to create chaos for Biden, then Trump announces that since this country is controlled by the radical left he's done with trying to save the country. He tells the country to not bother asking him to come back because he has no interest in fixing the mess Biden will leave behind. He leaves office like a bratty kid who is taking his ball and going home.

hepcat wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:38 am

Holman wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:54 am Trump will be lured out of the White House with the promise of a presidential reality show on OANN.

...or KFC.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:49 am Trump's scheming is going to center around getting or claiming a majority of the electoral college votes. If he can get there, even if it's built around fairly obvious shenanigans, he has a decent shot at staying in office. If he can't, simply refusing to leave is very unlikely to work.

Fireball wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:50 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:49 am Trump's scheming is going to center around getting or claiming a majority of the electoral college votes. If he can get there, even if it's built around fairly obvious shenanigans, he has a decent shot at staying in office. If he can't, simply refusing to leave is very unlikely to work.

Whoever receives 270 or more Electoral College votes when the Congress counts the votes in January will be president. If Trump thinks he can get Electoral College votes without actually winning the relevant states he is welcome to try, but I don't think that would work.

Fireball wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:16 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:10 am

Fireball wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:04 am as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.

What is they decide not to certify the results? Can they do that?

Do we trust them not to?

Who certifies what results?

Fireball wrote:provided he does not receive 270 Electoral College votes as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.

JANUARY 6, 2017 / 12:17 PM / 4 YEARS AGO
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Congress on Friday certified the Electoral College vote that gave Republican Donald Trump his victory in the contentious 2016 presidential election after a raucous half-hour joint session punctuated by Democratic challenges.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:59 am

Fireball wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:50 am

El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:49 am Trump's scheming is going to center around getting or claiming a majority of the electoral college votes. If he can get there, even if it's built around fairly obvious shenanigans, he has a decent shot at staying in office. If he can't, simply refusing to leave is very unlikely to work.

Whoever receives 270 or more Electoral College votes when the Congress counts the votes in January will be president. If Trump thinks he can get Electoral College votes without actually winning the relevant states he is welcome to try, but I don't think that would work.

What I worry about is stuff like this:

(1) Trump causes or plays up reports of voting disruptions in a few key GOP controlled states, like Wisconsin.
(2) The Wisconsin GOP legislature declares that Trump won a majority of the legitimate vote, and votes to award Wisconsin's electoral votes to Trump, notwithstanding general reporting indicating that Biden won;
(3) SCOTUS declines to intervene on some neutral-sounding grounds (a la Bush v. Gore), and Pence as the sitting VP recognizes the GOP WI delegation notwithstanding Democratic protests.

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:11 am

Fireball wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:16 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:10 am

Fireball wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:04 am as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.

What is they decide not to certify the results? Can they do that?

Do we trust them not to?

Who certifies what results?

Well...

Fireball wrote:provided he does not receive 270 Electoral College votes as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.

Congress certifies the results of the electoral college.

JANUARY 6, 2017 / 12:17 PM / 4 YEARS AGO
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Congress on Friday certified the Electoral College vote that gave Republican Donald Trump his victory in the contentious 2016 presidential election after a raucous half-hour joint session punctuated by Democratic challenges.

I get that it is largely a formality but as we have seen, formalities and norms are out the window and nothing can be taken for granted now. So what happens if they [Congress] don't pass the formality of certifying the results [of the electoral college vote]?

Holman wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:21 am The new congress is seated before January, and it is very likely to be made up of more Democrats than today.

...Which raises the question (in the darkest-timeline scenario), who has power to certify (or not certify) congressional elections? Could an evil Secretary of State or legislatures in some states go along with Trump's bluster and prevent at least some congressmen/senators from getting their seats? What would happen if they did so?

In the Trump era we're forced to at least wonder about these things.

Fireball wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:22 am

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:11 am

Fireball wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 12:16 pm

LawBeefaroni wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:10 am

Fireball wrote: ↑Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:04 am as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.

What is they decide not to certify the results? Can they do that?

Do we trust them not to?

Who certifies what results?

Well...

Fireball wrote:provided he does not receive 270 Electoral College votes as counted by the Congress on January 4, 2020.

Congress certifies the results of the electoral college.

JANUARY 6, 2017 / 12:17 PM / 4 YEARS AGO
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Congress on Friday certified the Electoral College vote that gave Republican Donald Trump his victory in the contentious 2016 presidential election after a raucous half-hour joint session punctuated by Democratic challenges.

I get that it is largely a formality but as we have seen, formalities and norms are out the window and nothing can be taken for granted now. So what happens if they [Congress] don't pass the formality of certifying the results [of the electoral college vote]?

The Constitution says "The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted." So Congress can't really stop this from happening. I really don't get what you're trying to assert would/could happen here.

None of the representatives [objecting] had the backing of a senator, which would have allowed them to suspend the joint session and allow the House and Senate to meet separately to debate the objections.

Biden denied the objections one by one, at times jocular and apparently determined to finish the tally. “It is over,” he said at one point, to laughter from Republicans.

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