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Election integrity and the transfer of power

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Paingod
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Paingod »

Smoove_B wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:41 pmI'm convinced that 30 seconds after it's clear Biden has this election secured, the existing GOP will immediately pivot to complaining about how Democrats ruined the economy over the last year and that they want to raise taxes to pay for the pandemic.
You're a goddamn prophet, you know.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

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coopasonic wrote: Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:23 am
Isgrimnur wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:51 pm I did one write-in vote for Freyja Odinsdottir for county sheriff. I'll be interested to see how that "race" turns out.
Well now I know she'll have TWO votes. Going some time this week, when the wife is ready, whatever that means
30 minutes, a significant portion of which was blackening lots of little boxes on the two sided legal sized ballot. I would have been there longer but I skipped all of the uncontested REP votes except for the sheriff write-in. One of the poll workers said they had 3 people (30% based on my keen powers of observation) off today so it was slowing things down.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by LawBeefaroni »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:24 pm

But part of the problem is that we can alleviate the Senate issues somewhat by admitting DC and PR, but beyond that it gets pretty difficult.
Does that alleviate them or just swing the balance to the "good guys" for now?
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by El Guapo »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:19 pm
El Guapo wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:24 pm

But part of the problem is that we can alleviate the Senate issues somewhat by admitting DC and PR, but beyond that it gets pretty difficult.
Does that alleviate them or just swing the balance to the "good guys" for now?
I guess more the latter, but the short-term effect of the Senate is disproportionately weighting conservative voters vs. liberal voters, so it roughly brings the democratic balance (small and large D) into better balance. Puerto Rico does have more people in it than 20 states, so I guess it's close to neutral in terms of the population issues. DC has more people than I think 7 states, so I suppose that doesn't help the population issues.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

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I think the GOP will turn on Trump first.

"We didn't support him"
"We had to do what he said"
"We never saw eye to eye"
"hey re elect us"
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Holman »

Daehawk wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 5:24 pm I think the GOP will turn on Trump first.

"We didn't support him"
"We had to do what he said"
"We never saw eye to eye"
"hey re elect us"
That's what's interesting about where we are. Most Republicans would love to disavow Trump, but they can't because Trump and Trumpism command the base.

What do they do in the face of this dilemma? If they give up the base, they've nothing left.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

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Holman wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:23 pmWhat do they do in the face of this dilemma? If they give up the base, they've nothing left.
They had the option of being decent human beings, but the lust for power swallowed their ethics.

I don't mind if every current GOP party member right now faces a crisis at every election for the remainder of their careers. I'd rather get back Republicans that had values and could tell right from wrong, reality from fantasy.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by malchior »

In other insane news, waiting on the video but apparently Ratcliffe, ODNI and the FBI including FBI Director Wray threw an impromptu press conference alleging that Iran and Russia stole voter lists and were trying to influence the election. Ratcliffe said it was to 'hurt Trump'. WaPo reported that Iran targeted Democrats with intimidation emails. Oy vey. This is going to get crazier and crazier.

Edit: FWIW it really sounds like Wray played it straight up and Ratcliffe is politicizing it.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Isgrimnur »

Ratcliffe is a piece of work.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

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I'm pretty sure I don't need Iran and Russia to tell me that Orange Fucktard sympathizes with white supremacists...
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by malchior »

SCOTUS grants stay that effectively bans Alabama curb side voting

Guess what the split was. We don't even know their reasoning but Sotomayor wrote a 5-page dissent explaining why she'd say differently. The majority sent this back to the Appellate level which essnetially dooms the case to be dismissed as moot. All the District Court order allowed was counties to *optionally* allow curbside voting to disabled voters. Must be nice to be amongst the most powerful people in the land and consign people to exposure to a deadly virus so they can vote. This court is rotten.
I would deny the stay. The secretary has not shown any legal error below. We should not substitute the District Court’s reasonable, record-based findings of fact with our own intuitions about the risks of traditional in-person voting during this pandemic or the ability of willing local officials to implement adequate curbside voting procedures. The District Court for good reason found that the secretary’s ban deprives disabled voters of the equally effective “opportunity to participate in” the “benefit” of in-person voting. 28 CFR §35.130(b)(1)(ii) (2019).

The secretary does not meaningfully dispute that the plaintiffs have disabilities, that COVID–19 is disproportionately likely to be fatal to these plaintiffs, and that traditional in-person voting will meaningfully increase their risk of exposure. He argues only that the relevant “benefit” under the ADA is voting 4 MERRILL v. PEOPLE FIRST OF ALABAMA SOTOMAYOR, J., dissenting generally, not in-person voting specifically, and that absentee voting ensures access to that benefit. But under the ADA, “[t]he benefit itself . . . cannot be defined in a way that effectively denies otherwise qualified handicapped individuals the meaningful access to which they are entitled.”

Alexander v. Choate, 469 U. S. 287, 301 (1985). In-person voters receive assistance from poll workers; need no witnesses, notaries, or copies of their photo IDs, as Alabama law requires for absentee ballots; and know their ballot will not arrive too late or be rejected for failure to comply with absentee ballots’ many requirements. ___ F. Supp. 3d, at ___, 2020 WL 5814455, *59–*60. Absentee and in-person voting are different benefits, and voters with disabilities are entitled to equal access to both. The District Court’s modest injunction is a reasonable accommodation, given the short time before the election. It does not require all counties to adopt curbside voting; it simply gives prepared counties the option to do so.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by malchior »

Radley channels my bewilderment here.

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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

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Let this sink in:

The U.S. Supreme Court hasn't met in person since March because of the pandemic.

But five justices think it's perfectly fine for Alabama voters with disabilities to risk their health to exercise the most important constitutional right.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

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I am truly puzzled by the lack of a written ruling.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

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When you're on the wrong side of history, the less documentation the better.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

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malchior wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:04 pm Edit: FWIW it really sounds like Wray played it straight up and Ratcliffe is politicizing it.
WaPo: Trump weighs firing FBI director after election as frustration with Wray, Barr grows
President Trump and his advisers have repeatedly discussed whether to fire FBI Director Christopher A. Wray after Election Day — a scenario that also could imperil the tenure of Attorney General William P. Barr as the president grows increasingly frustrated that federal law enforcement has not delivered his campaign the kind of last-minute boost that the FBI provided in 2016, according to people familiar with the matter.

The conversations among the president and senior aides stem in part from their disappointment that Wray in particular but Barr as well have not done what Trump had hoped — indicate that Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, his son Hunter Biden or other Biden associates are under investigation, these people say. Like others, they spoke on the condition of anonymity to disclose internal discussions.
Imagine a world where *Bill Barr* has too much integrity to do what you want done.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Holman wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:26 am

Imagine a world where *Bill Barr* has too much integrity to do what you want done.
I can't. I think it's more long term self-preservation than any sort of integrity. He can read the writing on the wall.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by El Guapo »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:30 am
Holman wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:26 am

Imagine a world where *Bill Barr* has too much integrity to do what you want done.
I can't. I think it's more long term self-preservation than any sort of integrity. He can read the writing on the wall.
Barr's objections are not rooted in integrity, but rather that Trump keeps ruining his efforts to put a nonpartisan sheen on his actions, by repeatedly stating the quiet part out loud.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by malchior »

Also, Durham wasn't bowing to the pressure. I have no doubts Barr was leaning on him. That was one of the implications that arose when Durham's chief right-hand woman quit a couple of last month ago.

Edit: Updated with a link to the story. It was a month ago but it feels like months. Time seems to be dilating as the election approaches.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

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Jaymann wrote: Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:29 pmWhen you're on the wrong side of history, the less documentation the better.
I worry that it's become naked partisanship without any pretense of impartiality. When the SCOTUS can give broad categories of Americans the finger in a time of crisis and in possible opposition to Constitutional rights without explanation it feels like the rot has gone deep indeed.

Or perhaps they declined to say why so that in the future it could be easily overturned and reversed? Without backing or reason, does it really set a precedent?

I think the Constitution should be amended to state that the SCOTUS should be a representative body that accommodates any statistical measure that can be weighed and equals one sum of the body. A true peer process.

Based on current US population statistics...
  • 51% female, 49% male - 5 women to 4 men.
  • 31% Democrat, 25% Republican, 40% Independent - 3 Democrat choices, 2 Republican selected, 4 wholly agreed-upon by both sides (or the Independents if they get enough of the vote).
  • >5% LGBTQ - Sexuality of the candidate is irrelevant until this gets a little higher maybe
  • 63% Non-Hispanic white, 15% Hispanic and Latino, 13% Black or African American, 9% other - 1 Black, 1 Hispanic, 1 Non-White, 6 White.
  • 43% Protestant, 20% Catholic, 26% Agnostic/Atheist, 11% other - 4 Protestants, 2 Catholics, 2 Agnostic/Atheist, 1 other (not yet included)
I know, total dream and impossibility. I really feel, though, that the highest court in the land should represent the people of the land and not the interests involved in putting them there.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

This....doesn't sound good.
hile senior Trump administration officials said this week that Iran has been actively interfering in the presidential election, many intelligence officials said they remained far more concerned about Russia, which in recent days has hacked into state and local computer networks in breaches that could allow Moscow broader access to American voting infrastructure.

The discovery of the hacks came as American intelligence agencies, infiltrating Russian networks themselves, have pieced together details of what they believe are Russia’s plans to interfere in the presidential race in its final days or immediately after the election on Nov. 3. Officials did not make clear what Russia planned to do, but they said its operations would be intended to help President Trump, potentially by exacerbating disputes around the results, especially if the race is too close to call...

Federal officials have warned for months that small breaches could be exaggerated to prompt inaccurate charges of widespread voter fraud.

Officials say Russia’s ability to change vote tallies nationwide is limited.
Limited? Limited????? As in, they can change some votes???
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by malchior »

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:10 pm This....doesn't sound good.
hile senior Trump administration officials said this week that Iran has been actively interfering in the presidential election, many intelligence officials said they remained far more concerned about Russia, which in recent days has hacked into state and local computer networks in breaches that could allow Moscow broader access to American voting infrastructure.

The discovery of the hacks came as American intelligence agencies, infiltrating Russian networks themselves, have pieced together details of what they believe are Russia’s plans to interfere in the presidential race in its final days or immediately after the election on Nov. 3. Officials did not make clear what Russia planned to do, but they said its operations would be intended to help President Trump, potentially by exacerbating disputes around the results, especially if the race is too close to call...

Federal officials have warned for months that small breaches could be exaggerated to prompt inaccurate charges of widespread voter fraud.

Officials say Russia’s ability to change vote tallies nationwide is limited.
Limited? Limited????? As in, they can change some votes???
I haven't worked directly on election machines specifically but my actual opinion based on years defending other custom/specialized computer systems is that breaking into one is going to be trivial. Especially if you have local access. The vendor has tons of control over how they are (mis)managed and they are rarely online so patching is often neglected. The use case encourages this. They are stored in a facility and often rolled out once a year. Sometimes less/sometimes more but not a lot. As long as they are functioning they don't get special care.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Paingod »

Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:10 pm This....doesn't sound good.
Officials say Russia’s ability to change vote tallies nationwide is limited.
Limited? Limited????? As in, they can change some votes???
I wouldn't overreact. They'll only change the wrong votes.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by El Guapo »

Paingod wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:49 pm
Ralph-Wiggum wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:10 pm This....doesn't sound good.
Officials say Russia’s ability to change vote tallies nationwide is limited.
Limited? Limited????? As in, they can change some votes???
I wouldn't overreact. They'll only change the wrong votes.
This is also yet another problem with the electoral college. Because they're not linked, as an operational matter changing enough votes on the national level in order to change the outcome of the election without getting caught would be very difficult. However, and especially in a close election, changing enough votes to change the outcome in *one state* would be much easier.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by The Meal »

That's funny. I see the EC as a firewall against shenanigans affecting the whole election kit-and-caboodle. But I see your point with regards to shenanigans targeting states with low margins.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

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The Meal wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:59 pm That's funny. I see the EC as a firewall against shenanigans affecting the whole election kit-and-caboodle. But I see your point with regards to shenanigans targeting states with low margins.
For like 2016, to take an example, you could change the outcome of the election by changing ~ 100,000 votes across three states (WI, MI, & PA) (which I suppose is really changing ~50,000 votes from one candidate to the other). On a national basis you would've needed to change a couple million votes.

In 2000 you could've changed the national outcome by changing ~ 10,000 - 20,000 votes in Miami.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by malchior »

I think that is probably lower risk than it first seems. It'd have to be a very tight spread. The attack I described above would work at an individual level. It'd still be very tough from everything I've read on the subject to pull off a widespread attack - say bigger than a few precincts. You need skilled people local to the voting machine. The machines typically have primitive comms. They either are downloaded using a local network, serial interface, and often the machines often still upload using phone lines which are surprisingly safe. They can be jammed and eavesdropped but modification is pretty hard using an analog modem. There has been no recorded instance of an injected attack via an analog medium. Hence why fax machines still have a role in this world. It's theoretically possible to do it but no one has ever bothered to try an attack at scale...anywhere...since it's hard to execute. It's easier to break the people side of the process tbh.

Another factor is it is legitimately hard to tamper with votes and not make it obvious it's tampered. In any case, the idea that a cyber attack will throw an election in a meaningful way is probably slim to none. However, they could throw doubt into the outcome of the election which is why the intelligence services keep hammering on that point. It doesn't help that people don't understand the subject matter and will easily put excess weight on a cyber incident if it were to happen. This is a bit akin to people's fears over RFID hacking/scanning which are founded in some theoretical basis but have never been pulled off outside Proof of Concept type activities.
El Guapo wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:08 pmIn 2000 you could've changed the national outcome by changing ~ 10,000 - 20,000 votes in Miami.
Right but the attacker needs to be in the exact right spot at the exact right time. Sure you can narrow it down to a few states but with enough accuracy to get those 10K votes? Doubtful. I'm guessing it's super low probability when you can do other things that'll still be disruptive enough.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

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I'm just saying that the electoral college raises the risk considerably, even if it would still be difficult to do. The point is that doing it on a national level for millions of voters would be essentially impossible. Whereas the electoral college at least makes it possible that the national outcome could be changed by changing votes in a couple precincts (even if the difficulty is still high).

If I were foreign intelligence trying to sway the election, I'd probably be inclined to do something like change or delete voter records in a couple key cities / states (say, Philadelphia, Miami, Detroit, etc.). Wouldn't switch votes, but could disproportinately disenfranchise voters for one side, and would be easier to do and not get caught (or have sufficient plausible deniability).
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by malchior »

Exactly. No rationale non-fictional Intelligence team would take on the mission with an objective to 'change the outcome of the US election'. It's too big a target. 'Let's trick people into thinking we changed the outcome of the election'. That's doable. And if your general activities happen to swing the election...well maybe that's a 'lifetime dacha on the Ural' level street cred (exaggerating bit here obviously). Heck they already did that once.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by LawBeefaroni »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:30 pm I'm just saying that the electoral college raises the risk considerably, even if it would still be difficult to do. The point is that doing it on a national level for millions of voters would be essentially impossible. Whereas the electoral college at least makes it possible that the national outcome could be changed by changing votes in a couple precincts (even if the difficulty is still high).

If I were foreign intelligence trying to sway the election, I'd probably be inclined to do something like change or delete voter records in a couple key cities / states (say, Philadelphia, Miami, Detroit, etc.). Wouldn't switch votes, but could disproportinately disenfranchise voters for one side, and would be easier to do and not get caught (or have sufficient plausible deniability).
Or do something obvious.

All they have to do it change one split precinct to 100% one way or the other and the entire election would be in question.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by msteelers »

Wife and I dropped off our ballots on Monday, and per the county election website they’ve been counted already.

That’s a change from the primary, where they didn’t show my mail in ballot as being counted until a day after the election even though it was received weeks in advance.

Typically here in FL the mail in ballots and early voting gets update and posted publicly shortly after the polls close at 7pm. Then the day of voting trickles in. My county tends to take several hours to get everything posted. The county to our south tends to be done by 8.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by El Guapo »

Looks like my mail in ballot was accepted a few days ago. It'll be tense to see what the outcome of the presidential election is in Massachusetts!
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

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El Guapo wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:49 pm Looks like my mail in ballot was accepted a few days ago. It'll be tense to see what the outcome of the presidential election is in Massachusetts!
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

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Ballot submitted by mail on 10/14. Counted.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

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Vote has been delivered, but won't be counted until Election Day, apparently.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by ImLawBoy »

I dropped off our ballots at a library voting drop box this afternoon. I was slightly amused by the signs on the book return bins saying not to put your ballots in them.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Jaymann »

ImLawBoy wrote: Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:02 pm I dropped off our ballots at a library voting drop box this afternoon. I was slightly amused by the signs on the book return bins saying not to put your ballots in them.
Or presumably not to put your books in the ballot box.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

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That would have to be pamphlet.
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Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Carpet_pissr »

El Guapo wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:54 am
LawBeefaroni wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:30 am
Holman wrote: Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:26 am

Imagine a world where *Bill Barr* has too much integrity to do what you want done.
I can't. I think it's more long term self-preservation than any sort of integrity. He can read the writing on the wall.
Barr's objections are not rooted in integrity, but rather that Trump keeps ruining his efforts to put a nonpartisan sheen on his actions, by repeatedly stating the quiet part out loud.
This is my strong feeling as well. I can totally imagine a super candid conversation between Barr and Trump, where Trump is riding him for not doing enough to go after people he perceives as enemies, and Barr is complaining that Trump has been thwarting his efforts and draws attention to them every time he tries. Barr: If you would just SHUT THE FUCK UP and STOP TWEETING about the very stuff you want me to do, I COULD ACTUALLY GET IT DONE QUIETLY. You MORON."

Imagine a non-idiot in Trump's place. This is what really worries me, and I know we've discussed it ad nauseum before, but the point is really driven home with Barr. He is a calculating, evil motherfucker, who has NO qualms about obliterating existing norms and at the very least, bending laws, to achieve his overlord's goals. He is the perfect toady AG.

But he's one example of MANY people that are competent, and apparently willing to basically destroy or severely weaken our system of government, in order to ..."win". And also apparently, our system has no safeguards against this kind of soft attack. Actually, the defense is "precedent" which is complete and total BS in my opinion, and not nearly sufficient. It's also why you see so many talking heads and journalists tout "UNPRECEDENTED!$#!@#", when discussing Trump Club's chicanery. Because that's IT. That's our fucking defense.

NPR: "In today's headlines, Trump appointed Postmaster General DickBag McAsswipe has fired 75% of postal workers, and burned all postal machinery and postal branches across the country, two months before the general election. We have with us an expert on US political norms and procedures. Have you ever heard of anything like this in the history of our country, Mr. Expert?"
Mr. Expert: "No, it's UNPRECEDENTED"
NPR: "Well there you have it folks, you heard it from an EXPERT. This behavior is UNPRECEDENTED. OK, now moving on to the stock market..."
Me: &!$%@^#$%^$@#
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Skinypupy
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Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 10:12 am
Location: Utah

Re: Election integrity and the transfer of power

Post by Skinypupy »

This is fine
The Trump campaign has been videotaping people as they deposit ballots in drop boxes in Philadelphia in what it says is an attempt to catch violations, surveillance that the battleground state's Democratic attorney general suggested could amount to illegal intimidation.

The campaign acknowledged the taping in a letter from a lawyer that complained it had caught voters on video illegally depositing multiple ballots. City elections officials responded they could not confirm the activity was inappropriate under Pennsylvania law.

Linda Kerns, the lawyer for the Trump campaign — which has already sued to ban the use of drop boxes — wrote to city election officials last week to request that they end the use of "unmanned drop boxes." The New York Times first reported the development Thursday.

Kerns suggested the images amount to "blatant violations" of state election law and said the campaign would sue, unless the city's election office "commits to remedy this problem immediately."

She asked for copies of city surveillance video at City Hall, for a list of voters who dropped ballots in the Philadelphia City Hall drop box on Oct. 14, and that the ballots be set aside "until an investigation can determine whether the ballots were personally delivered" by the voter.
For those accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression.

Black lives matter
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