[Poll] When Will We Know the 2020 Results?

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:15 pm

"When do you expect we'll be largely sure of the 2020 election results?"

I don't mean certification of results or tallying of last lingering ballots, but strong confidence that we're sure who won the presidency and who'll control the senate.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:22 pm

I'm optimistic enough to believe that it'll be late the next day or the day after.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:26 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:22 pm I'm optimistic enough to believe that it'll be late the next day or the day after.

I am hopeful enough to hope that even with COVID and absentee ballot weirdness that Biden will be the clear winner before the weekend and that whether POTUS concedes or not, it's all over but the auditing.

Hope is just that though. It's not a belief and it's not founded anything.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:30 pm

I went with "the next day" in order to hedge my bets, but I lean towards a Biden landslide and that we'll know election night. That doesn't mean I think Trump will concede even after we know the winner, however.

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:33 pm

Wow. I’m shocked by the optimism here. I went with December, but I’m not even sure that will happen.

First, it’s going to take significant time to count the millions of mailed ballots. In many states, that work cannot even start until Election Day. From what I’m reading, Just counting those ballots makes finding out election night an impossibility.

Second, is there any question Trump is going to challenge the validity of most - if not all - mail in ballots? He’s said that point blank. He has already said he’s going to the courts with that issue, repeatedly. So we’ll need to wait to count the mailed in ballots, and then we’ll have to wait to litigate their validity.

Third, Election Day itself will almost certainly be hot mess. There will be long lines, voter suppression (in part due to the lines) and a shit ton of other issues to work through. I fully believe Election Day will come and go, and there will still be people waiting in line to cast their votes.

So under no circumstances do I think there’s even a possibility we know who will be our next President on Election Day or any day soon thereafter.

I think people need to adjust their expectations.

Little Raven · Post by **Little Raven** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:35 pm

I think we'll know who won within a few hours of the polls closing. There are quite a few states that Trump absolutely must win on the Eastern side of the country. If Trump takes Pennsylvania and Michigan again....well, we'll know we're in for a rough ride, but if he loses either one, Biden almost certainly has it in the bag.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:40 pm

Probably a likely scenario is the networks call the election a landslide for Biden, and put the green check mark next to his name. Trump refuses to concede and goes on a Twitter road rage. There is no legal basis for his challenges, and he is viewed as a sore loser. He refuses to provide any national security information to the Biden camp, but the individual agencies start communicating on back channels.

People start lining up for the largest inauguration crowd in history (with masks). The proud boys try to stage a counter event and are laughed into the margins. The icing on the cake would be if US Marshals have to escort Trump from the White House.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:40 pm

I'm with Kurth and I think the push for Barrett is GOP insurance for the lawsuits and legal challenges I'm fully expecting them to unleash on 11/4 - even if the counts are overwhelming Biden. The Trump administration has been telegraphing it for months now. Results too close? Sue. Results overwhelmingly Biden? Sue. Hell, it won't surprise me if they end up suing in places where Trump wins just because he didn't win by enough.

Pain. That's the prediction.

So I guess we'll "know" shortly thereafter. But knowing won't mean a thing as the system certifying everything is going to get hit with a legal tsunami.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:45 pm

Little Raven wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:35 pm I think we'll know who won within a few hours of the polls closing. There are quite a few states that Trump absolutely must win on the Eastern side of the country. If Trump takes Pennsylvania and Michigan again....well, we'll know we're in for a rough ride, but if he loses either one, Biden almost certainly has it in the bag.

I hate to say it but from my tiny corner, which is not a red hotbed, either from being wealth suburban or from being rural, Michigan is most definitely on the table. He appeals to rural voters. He appeals to wealthy suburban voters out to protect theirs. He appeals to gun advocates. He appeals to the My religious freedom folks, he appeals to the crowd that do not like the tough choices Whitmer chooses and the hatred for her secretary of state, he appeals to the young who believe themselves invulnerable, he appeals to too many of the blue collar for reasons I can't comprehend. Oddly enough, think the elderly are, in part turning on him. But for every last one for which he appeals, praising death squads at his rallies as law and order, it means nothing.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:59 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:40 pm I'm with Kurth and I think the push for Barrett is GOP insurance for the lawsuits and legal challenges I'm fully expecting them to unleash on 11/4 - even if the counts are overwhelming Biden. The Trump administration has been telegraphing it for months now. Results too close? Sue. Results overwhelmingly Biden? Sue. Hell, it won't surprise me if they end up suing in places where Trump wins just because he didn't win by enough.

Pain. That's the prediction.

So I guess we'll "know" shortly thereafter. But knowing won't mean a thing as the system certifying everything is going to get hit with a legal tsunami.

Yeah, but the question that Holman asked was when we'll be confident of the vote results (e.g., who got more votes), which is different from the question of when we will know for sure who the President will be in January. Assuming that the current polling remains roughly the same as now, I think there's a pretty good chance that we have a reasonably solid understanding of who won by early on Nov. 4th.

How long the GOP / Trump shenanigans will take to play out is a much tougher question - guessing that won't all be done until at least the end of November.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:00 pm

There are only three key swing states that have to wait until Election Day to start counting ballots (Pennsylvanis, Michigan, Wisconsin). If Biden is winning enough other swing states, we won't necessarily need to know their results. And if Biden is ahead in in-person votes in those states, we'll have pretty high confidence that he's won the mail-in votes as well.

There's a difference between knowing who won and certifying who won, and I think the answer to the former will be almost immediately apparent. Getting everything certified amid Trump's inevitable legal challenges is a different story.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:03 pm

I think the Repugnicans risk the ire of the electorate if they continue to support a losing candidate. There is no future in Trump, and they would be wise to cut their losses.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:06 pm

One wildcard here is (of course) Florida. Florida generally reports fairly early, Biden has a material lead there (538 currently gives him a 72% chance of winning FL), and it's almost impossible for Trump to get to 270 electoral votes without Florida (Biden could lose all of WI + MI + PA and still win if he wins the Clinton states + FL + AZ).

So if Florida comes in with good Biden results early on the evening of Nov. 3rd, it'll be 95% over.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:08 pm

I should know this, but does any of the early voting data get released before Election Day? I guess early voters can get exit-polled, but I mean the actual numbers themselves. I'm thinking no. If that's true, WHEN do those numbers get released? Probably depends on the state.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:08 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:59 pmYeah, but the question that Holman asked was when we'll be confident of the vote results (e.g., who got more votes), which is different from the question of when we will know for sure who the President will be in January. Assuming that the current polling remains roughly the same as now, I think there's a pretty good chance that we have a reasonably solid understanding of who won by early on Nov. 4th.

Right - which is why I said we'll "know" shortly (likely 48 hours imho) after Election Day who won. But it wont matter because stiggin' it. I'll be amazed if he concedes before 1/19/21, if at all.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:10 pm

Carpet_pissr wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:08 pm I should know this, but does any of the early voting data get released before the election results? I guess early voters can get exit-polled, but I mean the actual numbers themselves. I'm thinking no. If that's true, WHEN do those numbers get released? Probably depends on the state.

Information on number of ballots cast and where gets released, but in terms of who people voted for, that doesn't get released on election day along with in-person balloting. In terms of when on election day I imagine that varies by state.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:12 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:08 pm
El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:59 pmYeah, but the question that Holman asked was when we'll be confident of the vote results (e.g., who got more votes), which is different from the question of when we will know for sure who the President will be in January. Assuming that the current polling remains roughly the same as now, I think there's a pretty good chance that we have a reasonably solid understanding of who won by early on Nov. 4th.
Right - which is why I said we'll "know" shortly (likely 48 hours imho) after Election Day who won. But it wont matter because stiggin' it. I'll be amazed if he concedes before 1/19/21, if at all.

That's why there's relative optimism. I don't think there's much optimism on Trump conceding.

One wildcard is that I think it's reasonably likely that Trump's people reach out to Biden's people to talk about going quietly in exchange for a pardon. That could change the timeline.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:13 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:08 pmI'll be amazed if he concedes before 1/19/21, if at all.

Same. He won't concede. He'll self-pardon and he'll draw out proceedings like possible Federal prosecutions by claiming executive privileges it if it comes down to running out the clock. He abuses everything and the legal system hasn't figured out a way to deal with him his whole life.

El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:12 pmOne wildcard is that I think it's reasonably likely that Trump's people reach out to Biden's people to talk about going quietly in exchange for a pardon. That could change the timeline.

Sure - and if Joe grants it I think it'd be a mistake of enormous gravity. If we've learned anything our penchant for the short-cut solution has left us in dire shape.

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:14 pm

I suppose there are two different questions: 1) when will we have a good idea who won the most votes and 2) when all the lawsuits will finally be finished over those votes. I think we'll have a pretty good idea of the former within a few days. I have no idea about the latter.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:16 pm

Nobody will appreciate a pardon for Trump from Biden, but he might just do it to "heal the nation." If I understand correctly, there would still be state offenses that Biden can't pardon.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:20 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:12 pmOne wildcard is that I think it's reasonably likely that Trump's people reach out to Biden's people to talk about going quietly in exchange for a pardon. That could change the timeline.

The only thing that could likely instantly sour me on a Joe Biden presidency is him extending a pardon to Trump. I am in salt the earth mode currently and believe Trump and his administration needs to be made an example of. Because the next sociopath that manages to get elected isn't going to be as much of a moron as Trump; this can never happen again.

Blackhawk · Post by **Blackhawk** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:21 pm

I think we'll know who won fairly quickly. I don't think we'll know what's going to happen in January for quite a while.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:28 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:20 pm
El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:12 pmOne wildcard is that I think it's reasonably likely that Trump's people reach out to Biden's people to talk about going quietly in exchange for a pardon. That could change the timeline.
The only thing that could likely instantly sour me on a Joe Biden presidency is him extending a pardon to Trump. I am in salt the earth mode currently and believe Trump and his administration needs to be made an example of. Because the next sociopath that manages to get elected isn't going to be as much of a moron as Trump; this can never happen again.

I agree. But if you're Biden - what if your advisers say to you "It's clear that you've won. However, Trump is claiming victory and we think there's a roughly 10% chance that we won't ultimately be able to force him to leave."

If there's a 10% chance that Trump is able to effectively end American democracy, do you roll the dice or not?

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:31 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:28 pmIf there's a 10% chance that Trump is able to effectively end American democracy, do you roll the dice or not?

I'm probably the most risk averse person you've (never) met and I would say - f him and f his nonsense. No mercy, sweep the goddamn leg and/or eagle claw the throat. I am Dalton pushed too far; I've had enough.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:36 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:31 pm
El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:28 pmIf there's a 10% chance that Trump is able to effectively end American democracy, do you roll the dice or not?
I'm probably the most risk averse person you've (never) met and I would say - f him and f his nonsense. No mercy, sweep the goddamn leg and/or eagle claw the throat. I am Dalton pushed too far; I've had enough.

Also that 10% chance short-term if they bend becomes an ever higher percentage of a long-term end of American democracy. We need to send a clear strong message. This isn't the time for the usual modern day Democratic party weak spines.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:40 pm

If Trump were a thinking man, leveraging a hail mary refusnik strategy to get a full pardon would be shrewd. He's not that smart, and won't listen to those who are.

Jeff V · Post by **Jeff V** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:41 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if networks start declaring a winner moments after the last poll closes.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:41 pm

Asking for or accepting a pardon means admitting that he did something wrong.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:43 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:41 pm Asking for or accepting a pardon means admitting that he did something wrong.

Have you met Donald Trump?

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:44 pm

Jeff V wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:41 pm I wouldn't be surprised if networks start declaring a winner moments after the last poll closes.

It might be worth watching Fox news for the first time in my life just to see them squirm.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:48 pm

El Guapo wrote:
Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:41 pm Asking for or accepting a pardon means admitting that he did something wrong.
Have you met Donald Trump?

Thankfully not

Little Raven · Post by **Little Raven** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:03 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:20 pmBecause the next sociopath that manages to get elected isn't going to be as much of a moron as Trump; this can never happen again.

I don't know whether we'll see a Ford-style blanket pardon or a simple under the table agreement that everyone will look the other way....though my money would probably be on the latter...but I am confident of this: Trump, and his family, will have nothing to fear from Biden's Justice Department. Not because Trump doesn't deserve it, and not because Democrats are spineless, but because Democrats understand a terrible truth.

This will happen again.

It is a sad fact of the world that terrible people find themselves in positions of leadership with appalling frequency. We can and do try to prevent it, but they slip through regardless. Trump is not the first corrupt sociopath we've had in the White House, and he won't be the last. So the priority falls to protecting the process - you want to make sure that the next corrupt sociopath is not afraid to leave office because he knows his next stop will be prison. The President of the United States literally wields the power to end the world, so protecting that transition is worth letting pretty much any number of sociopaths "get away" with stuff. It's galling, to be sure, but there's no way around it. Biden understands this.

It's not all bad, though. Sure, Trump will be safe from the Feds, but once he's a private citizen again, I suspect the AG of New York might like to have a word....

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:11 pm

I do think if Trump doesn't get a pardon then he's going to wind up getting indicted by the DOJ before the end of 2022. Even if Biden and Biden's AG want to be cautious, staff are going to do their jobs, and if and when a staff attorney puts together a case, they're not going to decline it.

Little Raven · Post by **Little Raven** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:16 pm

El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:11 pm I do think if Trump doesn't get a pardon then he's going to wind up getting indicted by the DOJ before the end of 2022.

I'll take that bet. Sure, there's nothing in the law that prevents it, but it's never happened before, and for darn good reason.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:18 pm

Little Raven wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:16 pm
El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:11 pm I do think if Trump doesn't get a pardon then he's going to wind up getting indicted by the DOJ before the end of 2022.
I'll take that bet. Sure, there's nothing in the law that prevents it, but it's never happened before, and for darn good reason.

Most presidents don't flagrantly commit crimes.

YellowKing · Post by **YellowKing** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:42 pm

Jaymann wrote:It might be worth watching Fox news for the first time in my life just to see them squirm.

I'll be watching Fox to watch them strive to maintain optimism in the face of a landslide defeat.

I'll be watching MSNBC to see Rachel Maddow try not to gloat.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:15 pm

Blackhawk wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:21 pm I think we'll know who won fairly quickly. I don't think we'll know what's going to happen in January for quite a while.

I mostly agree. We'll have a strong idea by 11/4. It will take another week to count all the votes to make it certain. Trump will do his damnedest to interfere. After that, who knows?

gameoverman · Post by **gameoverman** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:24 pm

My opinion on this is simply a gut feeling, but I think whoever looks like they won on election night will turn out to be the actual winner. In other words, I think there's a possibility of a drawn out final result but I don't think there will be a twist ending. Example: So and so looks like they won big by the end of election night. Final tallies take 3 days. During that time the numbers bounce back and forth. But when the official results are given, So and so still wins whether it was by that large initial margin or a much smaller one.

gbasden · Post by **gbasden** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:27 pm

Smoove_B wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:20 pm
El Guapo wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:12 pmOne wildcard is that I think it's reasonably likely that Trump's people reach out to Biden's people to talk about going quietly in exchange for a pardon. That could change the timeline.
The only thing that could likely instantly sour me on a Joe Biden presidency is him extending a pardon to Trump. I am in salt the earth mode currently and believe Trump and his administration needs to be made an example of. Because the next sociopath that manages to get elected isn't going to be as much of a moron as Trump; this can never happen again.

Goddamned right.

Jaymann · Post by **Jaymann** » Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:48 pm

Kraken wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:15 pm
Blackhawk wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:21 pm I think we'll know who won fairly quickly. I don't think we'll know what's going to happen in January for quite a while.
I mostly agree. We'll have a strong idea by 11/4. It will take another week to count all the votes to make it certain.

The thing is, they will know how many ballots remain to be counted. If there are not enough to change the outcome it's over. Of course it's never over for Trump, he will go to his grave swearing he was robbed.

The networks will be anxious to declare a winner and they will. There could be other tighter races that will need the full count.