2020 Election Results

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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Zaxxon »

stessier wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:01 pm
Zaxxon wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:53 pm
RunningMn9 wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:41 pm What happens to Trump if you remove Texas from the equation? See how stupid this is?
Amazingly, Texas is only about as impactful to Trump's popular vote absolute # as is Alabama. (~600k lead in each state) The 'wonderers' are absolutely correct that there is no similar 'but if you remove state X, what happens to Biden's lead!?' for Trump. There's no handful of states which combined have the impact on Trump that just CA has on Biden, in fact.

They're still dumb to ask the question, but...
You should do the same thing with a region with the same population as CA. There was a tweet that showed regions with the same population and Senators for each. Try it with that.

I agree it's a dumb question though.
Oh, totally. I absolutely reject their premise. The national popular vote is the... national... popular vote. But if you accept the premise and want to scapegoat California, the state, it is a unique situation.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by El Guapo »

Zaxxon wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:06 pm
stessier wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:01 pm
Zaxxon wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:53 pm
RunningMn9 wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:41 pm What happens to Trump if you remove Texas from the equation? See how stupid this is?
Amazingly, Texas is only about as impactful to Trump's popular vote absolute # as is Alabama. (~600k lead in each state) The 'wonderers' are absolutely correct that there is no similar 'but if you remove state X, what happens to Biden's lead!?' for Trump. There's no handful of states which combined have the impact on Trump that just CA has on Biden, in fact.

They're still dumb to ask the question, but...
You should do the same thing with a region with the same population as CA. There was a tweet that showed regions with the same population and Senators for each. Try it with that.

I agree it's a dumb question though.
Oh, totally. I absolutely reject their premise. The national popular vote is the... national... popular vote. But if you accept the premise and want to scapegoat California, the state, it is a unique situation.
I think it mainly highlights the absurdity of having the electoral college and states with population differences of tens of millions of people.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by stessier »

Yep.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Zaxxon »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:07 pm
Zaxxon wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:06 pm
stessier wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:01 pm
Zaxxon wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:53 pm
RunningMn9 wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:41 pm What happens to Trump if you remove Texas from the equation? See how stupid this is?
Amazingly, Texas is only about as impactful to Trump's popular vote absolute # as is Alabama. (~600k lead in each state) The 'wonderers' are absolutely correct that there is no similar 'but if you remove state X, what happens to Biden's lead!?' for Trump. There's no handful of states which combined have the impact on Trump that just CA has on Biden, in fact.

They're still dumb to ask the question, but...
You should do the same thing with a region with the same population as CA. There was a tweet that showed regions with the same population and Senators for each. Try it with that.

I agree it's a dumb question though.
Oh, totally. I absolutely reject their premise. The national popular vote is the... national... popular vote. But if you accept the premise and want to scapegoat California, the state, it is a unique situation.
I think it mainly highlights the absurdity of having the electoral college and states with population differences of tens of millions of people.
Definitely. And kind of highlights the absurdity of the Senate, while we're at it. It's an institution similarly designed to raise the impact of less-populated areas. While it does succeed at that, the Senate has the secondary effect (which in absolute terms is a much greater effect) of reducing the impact of many, many more people than it helps.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by RunningMn9 »

So, given today, does anyone still think that Biden should try super hard to work with the GOP?
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:56 pm
Sadly no more glowing orbs for Donald.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Isgrimnur »

RunningMn9 wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:02 pm So, given today, does anyone still think that Biden should try super hard to work with the GOP?
Be more vague.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

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RunningMn9 wrote:So, given today, does anyone still think that Biden should try super hard to work with the GOP?
Yes.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by malchior »

YellowKing wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:17 pm
RunningMn9 wrote:So, given today, does anyone still think that Biden should try super hard to work with the GOP?
Yes.
I'm still for this but it is looking like we might need to adjust for Constitutional crisis impact.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

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Isgrimnur wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:14 pm
RunningMn9 wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:02 pm So, given today, does anyone still think that Biden should try super hard to work with the GOP?
Be more vague.
Are you referring to...

(from the WaPo)
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Monday threw his support behind Trump’s legal challenges in the wake of his loss to Biden, saying that the president is “100 percent within his right” to pursue recounts and litigation.

“This process will reach its resolution. Our system will resolve any recounts” and lawsuits, McConnell said in remarks on the Senate floor.

Trump has produced no evidence of widespread voting fraud, and state and local officials of both parties have rejected the accusations made by the president and his supporters.

McConnell on Monday did not congratulate Biden, even as several members of the Senate Republican conference have done so in recent days.

McConnell’s remarks came shortly after he met with Attorney General William P. Barr on Monday afternoon. A Justice Department spokeswoman declined to comment on the meeting.

Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) took to the floor shortly after McConnell spoke. He pushed back against the Kentucky Republican’s remarks and called for GOP lawmakers to follow the lead of former president George W. Bush, who congratulated Biden in a statement Sunday.

“There has been no evidence of any significant or widespread voter fraud,” Schumer said. “Joe Biden won this election fair and square.”
Biden should reach out to all Americans in the spirit of unity. However...as for the GOP in the Senate, those who will accept the hand of friendship in the spirit of comity should be welcomed and worked with. The others can get the back of the hand. There's reasonable disagreement on philosophical grounds that can be debated like civilized people. And there's poisonous obstructionism of the democratic process that needs to be dealt with accordingly which I'm separating from the differences the parties have on economic, social, and other issues.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by malchior »

But they did it first! Wah. At a time when there was a legitimate recount in 2000.

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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by YellowKing »

To expound on my blunt answer, if we weren't in the middle of a pandemic I'd say just let it be politics as usual. But we're in a real crunch here and people need help (even if they're anti-masker idiots and don't realize they need help). We're going to have to be the bigger party here and try to get things done to right this ship.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by $iljanus »

YellowKing wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:25 pm To expound on my blunt answer, if we weren't in the middle of a pandemic I'd say just let it be politics as usual. But we're in a real crunch here and people need help (even if they're anti-masker idiots and don't realize they need help). We're going to have to be the bigger party here and try to get things done to right this ship.
Of course. But have a long memory and continue the fight to smother the GOP in every election until we get serious people who are concerned with governing again.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by malchior »

They still need to cooperate though. And we just got a warning shot they aren't going to play ball. Biden has better be working phones right now because he might have the nation's first transition crisis on his hands.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

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Good luck with all that. There’s no way this GOP does anything but obstruct while McConnell lives.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by RunningMn9 »

$iljanus wrote:Of course. But have a long memory and continue the fight to smother the GOP in every election until we get serious people who are concerned with governing again.
People still don’t get it. While Biden is wasting his time seeking bipartisanship that is never coming, the GOP is out there continuing to pass laws to deal with “voter fraud” that will continue making it harder and harder for Democrats to vote.

It’s not that these two sides are playing with different sets of rules, it’s that Democrats don’t even seem to realize that you aren’t even playing the same game.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by YellowKing »

I'm not sure what they can do about it short of stooping to their level. I don't want to be in an arms race to see who can destroy democracy the fastest.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

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RunningMn9 wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:02 pm So, given today, does anyone still think that Biden should try super hard to work with the GOP?
I’m not sure why this is phrased as a choice.

If you want to accomplish anything legislatively, you need 216 Reps and 50 Senators. Biden probably has the former (depending on how well he can keep his coalition together) but he’s 2 votes short of the latter. (Pending Georgia)

If you want to really change stuff, then you need 60 Senators, unless we’re doing away with the Filibuster. Biden is nowhere close to that.

So yeah, he has to work with Republicans. He doesn’t have the votes otherwise.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

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Little Raven wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:40 pm
RunningMn9 wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:02 pm So, given today, does anyone still think that Biden should try super hard to work with the GOP?
I’m not sure why this is phrased as a choice.

If you want to accomplish anything legislatively, you need 216 Reps and 50 Senators. Biden probably has the former (depending on how well he can keep his coalition together) but he’s 2 votes short of the latter. (Pending Georgia)

If you want to really change stuff, then you need 60 Senators, unless we’re doing away with the Filibuster. Biden is nowhere close to that.

So yeah, he has to work with Republicans. He doesn’t have the votes otherwise.
IF he can get to 50 Democratic senators, then Biden should absolutely kill the filibuster. Even if he does, that will probably require at least six months of Republican obstructionism and regular lunches with Manchin and Tester, but I think there's a decent chance that it gets done (and it should get done).

Short of that, I do think it's worth becoming best friends with Collins and Murkowski and the like. Even accepting that that's almost certainly doomed to failure, a 10% chance of passing a couple bills is still better than a 0% chance. Though he should accept going in that it's probably not going to work.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by gameoverman »

It's pretty clear that the Republicans are going to do with Biden what they did with Obama, create nonstop obstacles. When Trump was elected one of the Republican priorities was undoing, erasing, and otherwise wiping out any trace of the Obama Presidency that they could affect. They will do the same with Biden if given the chance. Making things worse is the fact that the Republicans did relatively well in this election, so they are not feeling any pressure to back down. The opposite is true, they'd lose their base if they wimp out now.

In my opinion nothing major will be accomplished by Biden until after the next mid terms, assuming Democrats score big there. The longshot is if the upcoming Georgia vote goes to Democrats. Then Biden can kick things off sooner.

"Work with Republicans" has no real meaning. If something needs to be signed by members of both parties then I guess signing it technically counts as working with Republicans. That thing they're signing? It will not be written by working with Republicans. If it says what Democrats want it to say, that will only happen if Democrats have the power to overrule Republican objections. Otherwise it'll say what Republicans want it to say. I don't see McConnell sitting down with Democrats and hashing out anything unless he's been stripped of all power.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

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RunningMn9 wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:33 pmPeople still don’t get it. While Biden is wasting his time seeking bipartisanship that is never coming, the GOP is out there continuing to pass laws to deal with “voter fraud” that will continue making it harder and harder for Democrats to vote.
I think most people get it. But this is not a problem Democrats can solve. Even if we wanted to start "playing the same game" as the Republicans....we don't have the power. Republicans can play those games because they control 31 state houses. :(

This one is on the voters to fix. Nobody said democracy was easy.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Skinypupy »

Well, there's something I didn't think I'd ever see.


Fox News anchor Neil Cavuto takes the rare step (for Fox) of cutting into Kayleigh McEnany's lie-filled press conference about the election.

"Unless she has more details to back that up, I can't in good countenance continue showing you this."
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Little Raven »

How did Silvo put it?
Image
Trump's last envelope was WAY light.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by El Guapo »

Skinypupy wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 6:22 pm Well, there's something I didn't think I'd ever see.


Fox News anchor Neil Cavuto takes the rare step (for Fox) of cutting into Kayleigh McEnany's lie-filled press conference about the election.

"Unless she has more details to back that up, I can't in good countenance continue showing you this."
Fox News's actual news component does try to remain respectable. That's pretty harsh (but fair) even for them, but I'm not shocked that they would do that.

Now, when it gets to Tucker Carlson at 8 pm, per the box in the lower right.....they might be a smidge less restrained.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

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YellowKing wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:39 pm I'm not sure what they can do about it short of stooping to their level. I don't want to be in an arms race to see who can destroy democracy the fastest.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

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I like this trend of cutting off outright liars in mid lie. Wish they had started it in 2015. And this is not a free speech issue. Remember Bush's "free speech zones?"
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by malchior »

Personally up to now, I was mostly fine broadcasting it if they fact checked it/called it lying. They only sometimes did that. With this stuff though it is actually a threat to the public good and I am glad they are being firm about it. Though in the end I expect they'll start whining about censorship.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Daehawk »

Bah they have lost their wonderful leader and now want to look all nice. Fuck them. Fox blows and sucks at the same time.

One other nice thing about the election being over is all those Trump ads I see online all the time have magically disappeared.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by LordMortis »

$iljanus wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 5:22 pm Biden should reach out to all Americans in the spirit of unity. However...as for the GOP in the Senate, those who will accept the hand of friendship in the spirit of comity should be welcomed and worked with. The others can get the back of the hand. There's reasonable disagreement on philosophical grounds that can be debated like civilized people. And there's poisonous obstructionism of the democratic process that needs to be dealt with accordingly which I'm separating from the differences the parties have on economic, social, and other issues.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by RunningMn9 »

YellowKing wrote:I'm not sure what they can do about it short of stooping to their level. I don't want to be in an arms race to see who can destroy democracy the fastest.
I can understand that, but that’s not going to stop them from doing it. We’re sitting here right now watching them try to steal an election, right in front of our eyes, with the GOP looking on and saying “let’s see how this plays out”, ON THE FLOOR OF THE SENATE.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Smoove_B »

RunningMn9 wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:18 pm We’re sitting here right now watching them try to steal an election, right in front of our eyes, with the GOP looking on and saying “let’s see how this plays out”, ON THE FLOOR OF THE SENATE.
Trump is attempting a coup in plain sight:
The corruption of the GOP will outlive Trump’s presidency

...

What we are not seeing, in any way, is a wholesale rejection on the right of Trump’s effort to delegitimize the election. And thus there is no reason to believe Trump will not retain his hold over much of the party, and much of its base, going forward.

Here’s the grim kicker: The conditions that made Trump and this Republican Party possible are set to worsen. Republicans retained control of enough statehouses to drive the next redistricting effort, too, and their 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court will unleash their map-drawers more fully. The elections analyst G. Elliott Morris estimates that the gap between the popular vote margin and the tipping point state in the Electoral College will be 4 to 5 percentage points, and that the GOP’s control of the redistricting process could push it to 6 to 7 points next time.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by malchior »

And we are seeing the usual very serious people saying kvetching about this is overreaction. "Don't worry it can't work". As if just saying this shit isn't dangerous, incredibly irresponsible, and frankly fucking insane.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Skinypupy »

I still have enough faith in our system to think that this won’t work, but fuck all of these enablers sideways for trying it.

Because while it likely won’t overturn this one, it does continue to undermine faith in the legitimacy of our elections, which will someday, eventually lead us to a tipping point.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Enough »

Smoove_B wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:28 pm
RunningMn9 wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:18 pm We’re sitting here right now watching them try to steal an election, right in front of our eyes, with the GOP looking on and saying “let’s see how this plays out”, ON THE FLOOR OF THE SENATE.
Trump is attempting a coup in plain sight:
The corruption of the GOP will outlive Trump’s presidency

...

What we are not seeing, in any way, is a wholesale rejection on the right of Trump’s effort to delegitimize the election. And thus there is no reason to believe Trump will not retain his hold over much of the party, and much of its base, going forward.

Here’s the grim kicker: The conditions that made Trump and this Republican Party possible are set to worsen. Republicans retained control of enough statehouses to drive the next redistricting effort, too, and their 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court will unleash their map-drawers more fully. The elections analyst G. Elliott Morris estimates that the gap between the popular vote margin and the tipping point state in the Electoral College will be 4 to 5 percentage points, and that the GOP’s control of the redistricting process could push it to 6 to 7 points next time.
On that note,



https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/stat ... 7938361345
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:28 pm And we are seeing the usual very serious people saying kvetching about this is overreaction. "Don't worry it can't work". As if just saying this shit isn't dangerous, incredibly irresponsible, and frankly fucking insane.


My alarm level is going way, way up that they're actually going to take a serious run at overturning the presidential election. The party outside of a handful of GOP senators is already giving its blessing or at least signaling very strongly that they're not going to get in the way.

Given that the strong majority of people (correctly) view Biden as having won the effort is not going to be easy, but I can't say that they don't have a shot at success.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by malchior »

The VSP theory is this is GA fund raising. Maybe it is for some but then they are playing a very dangerous game for very little gain. In the end, it is far more likely they are feeding into Trump's vanity and abnormal narcissism because they are afraid of him. He isn't being abandoned and he'll still be a powerful voice in exile. This is something new and we should be concerned even if it turns out fine.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Skinypupy »

I tend to agree with Fed. This feels more like a “yes Mr. President, we will absolutely inform you the moment we find that snipe.”

Doesn’t make it any less horrible, but I’m not sure how seriously they’ll take it. Hope so, anyways.


For what it’s worth, though I expect the worst of Barr and he’s earned it, to me that language doesn’t convey a forceful call for investigations. It’s qualified in a way to give the USAOs an out.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Jaymann »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:22 pm
malchior wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 8:28 pm And we are seeing the usual very serious people saying kvetching about this is overreaction. "Don't worry it can't work". As if just saying this shit isn't dangerous, incredibly irresponsible, and frankly fucking insane.


My alarm level is going way, way up that they're actually going to take a serious run at overturning the presidential election. The party outside of a handful of GOP senators is already giving its blessing or at least signaling very strongly that they're not going to get in the way.

Given that the strong majority of people (correctly) view Biden as having won the effort is not going to be easy, but I can't say that they don't have a shot at success.
I'm convinced this isn't about stealing this election. It is theater designed to keep the base fired up, and in part, so Trump never has to admit he lost. It is about pushing the boundaries to see how far they can take it. It is about keeping the flames of civil unrest burning with a tip of the hat to Putin. The Repugnicans struck gold with white supremacy and will ride that wave for all it's worth. I hope it can't hold up long term, but it is not going away any time soon whether or not Trump does.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:36 pm The VSP theory is this is GA fund raising. Maybe it is for some but then they are playing a very dangerous game for very little gain. In the end, it is far more likely they are feeding into Trump's vanity and abnormal narcissism because they are afraid of him. He isn't being abandoned and he'll still be a powerful voice in exile. This is something new and we should be concerned even if it turns out fine.
I worry that this is already going through the Trumpworld spin cycle.

Trump says something insane --> most GOP officials try to ignore it / downplay it / "he's just joking" --> Trump reiterates statement and emphasizes that he is in no way joking --> more Trumpist politicians start echoing him --> Fox News opinion shows start hammering it --> GOP establishment officials decline to object --> some crazy district court judge issues an insane Trump supporting opinion --> Very Serious People start taking it seriously --> friendly appellate court takes it seriously --> Supreme Court ruling that could go either way.
Black Lives Matter.
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