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2020 Election Results

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Unagi
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Unagi »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:41 pm
malchior wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:36 pm The VSP theory is this is GA fund raising. Maybe it is for some but then they are playing a very dangerous game for very little gain. In the end, it is far more likely they are feeding into Trump's vanity and abnormal narcissism because they are afraid of him. He isn't being abandoned and he'll still be a powerful voice in exile. This is something new and we should be concerned even if it turns out fine.
I worry that this is already going through the Trumpworld spin cycle.

Trump says something insane --> most GOP officials try to ignore it / downplay it / "he's just joking" --> Trump reiterates statement and emphasizes that he is in no way joking --> more Trumpist politicians start echoing him --> Fox News opinion shows start hammering it --> GOP establishment officials decline to object --> some crazy district court judge issues an insane Trump supporting opinion --> Very Serious People start taking it seriously --> friendly appellate court takes it seriously --> Supreme Court ruling that could go either way.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by El Guapo »

Unagi wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:54 pm
El Guapo wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:41 pm
malchior wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 9:36 pm The VSP theory is this is GA fund raising. Maybe it is for some but then they are playing a very dangerous game for very little gain. In the end, it is far more likely they are feeding into Trump's vanity and abnormal narcissism because they are afraid of him. He isn't being abandoned and he'll still be a powerful voice in exile. This is something new and we should be concerned even if it turns out fine.
I worry that this is already going through the Trumpworld spin cycle.

Trump says something insane --> most GOP officials try to ignore it / downplay it / "he's just joking" --> Trump reiterates statement and emphasizes that he is in no way joking --> more Trumpist politicians start echoing him --> Fox News opinion shows start hammering it --> GOP establishment officials decline to object --> some crazy district court judge issues an insane Trump supporting opinion --> Very Serious People start taking it seriously --> friendly appellate court takes it seriously --> Supreme Court ruling that could go either way.
Hey, Fuck You El Guapo.
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:lol: Not 100% sure I follow, but the sentiment seems nice, I think.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Freyland »

While I think the above theories have merit, I'm worried they are missing a point. Yes, it keeps the base riled, yes it makes Trump happy, and yes, it even helps some entities keep themselves from getting fired. But drawing this out gives them time to actually fabricate something just substantial enough to cause sufficient doubt to actually make this a legal thing. It won't work if everybody has come to accept the election results, they have to keep people believing there is fraud until the difficult to disprove mechanism is actually ready.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Unagi »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:07 pm
:lol: Not 100% sure I follow, but the sentiment seems nice, I think.
I generally agree with your outlook/assessment of things and I don't at all like this one. :?
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Skinypupy »

I’m sure thats part of the intent as well. Make the boss happy, keep the moron brigade riled up, and if we actually do happen to stumble on something we can use for a legal hail mary? Even better.
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El Guapo
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by El Guapo »

Unagi wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:34 pm
El Guapo wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:07 pm
:lol: Not 100% sure I follow, but the sentiment seems nice, I think.
I generally agree with your outlook/assessment of things and I don't at all like this one. :?
Yeah, figured it was something like that.

If it helps, it would be extremely difficult for Trump to pull it off at this point, especially since they mostly lack cooperative state governments in enough states that voted for Biden (I was relieved to discover that AZ's Secretary of State is a Democrat, incidentally). I'm sure that GA's Secretary of State is going to come under enormous pressure this month from Trumpworld, but even if he buckles and is somehow able to change the GA result, they'd still need two more states.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by malchior »

This is one of those situations you have to take this deadly seriously because he is acting so far outside the bounds of normal...and he is the President. It doesn't matter if he is just lashing out, it puts us in a dangerous position where even a mistake can have dire outcomes for electoral integrity. And the most important thing is we can not let him extort his way into a pardon. If he does, a lot of people are going to absolutely give up on this system and we'll be further into the spiral.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Little Raven »

El Guapo wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:51 pmI'm sure that GA's Secretary of State is going to come under enormous pressure this month from Trumpworld, but even if he buckles and is somehow able to change the GA result, they'd still need two more states.
The GA SoS basically told Perdue and Loeffler to fark off with any partisan nonsense. The evidence that any GOP state official has been compromised by the Trump campaign is exactly the same as the evidence that there was significant voting irregularities.

The system is holding just fine for now.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by El Guapo »

Little Raven wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 12:47 am
El Guapo wrote: Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:51 pmI'm sure that GA's Secretary of State is going to come under enormous pressure this month from Trumpworld, but even if he buckles and is somehow able to change the GA result, they'd still need two more states.
The GA SoS basically told Perdue and Loeffler to fark off with any partisan nonsense. The evidence that any GOP state official has been compromised by the Trump campaign is exactly the same as the evidence that there was significant voting irregularities.

The system is holding just fine for now.
Emphasis on "for now." Bill Kristol has a solid column up mirroring my thoughts. Basically it's very unlikely that Trump would succeed. But given the stakes that 1% or 2% chance or whatever it may be is fucking terrifying.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Little Raven »

That's fair. I'm not going to be terrified by Trump's last flails, but we are in uncharted territory and suspicion is warranted.

But boy, is he ever bad at this. And he's had a couple of examples of successfully transforming a democracy into an autocracy to study just in my lifetime!
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by El Guapo »

Little Raven wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:38 am That's fair. I'm not going to be terrified by Trump's last flails, but we are in uncharted territory and suspicion is warranted.

But boy, is he ever bad at this. And he's had a couple of examples of successfully transforming a democracy into an autocracy to study just in my lifetime!
I'm not quite ready to say that he's bad at this. He's successfully brought a major political party to heel, mostly succeeded at transforming the DoJ into a weapon against his enemies, curtailed a large portion of the federal bureaucracy, nearly won enough time via reelection to consolidate power, and still has at least some shot at retaining power.

I'll breathe a little easier when results are certified.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Zaxxon »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:42 am
Little Raven wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:38 am That's fair. I'm not going to be terrified by Trump's last flails, but we are in uncharted territory and suspicion is warranted.

But boy, is he ever bad at this. And he's had a couple of examples of successfully transforming a democracy into an autocracy to study just in my lifetime!
I'm not quite ready to say that he's bad at this. He's successfully brought a major political party to heel, mostly succeeded at transforming the DoJ into a weapon against his enemies, curtailed a large portion of the federal bureaucracy, nearly won enough time via reelection to consolidate power, and still has at least some shot at retaining power.

I'll breathe a little easier when results are certified.
Same. Although my breathing easier may still be through a paper bag for the next two (at least) years. Even if the election is certified for Biden with no further escalation of hullabaloo (as it likely will be), we've taken a giant step closer to autocracy since the election was called on Saturday. We have the Senate Majority Leader and the AG both saying 'yeah, OK, we should look into these things [which objectively do not exist and even if they did exist would absolutely not cast doubt on the outcome of the election],' solely for the slight chance of further political gain.

Forget Trump himself--these are top government leaders (lolz) further stoking the flames crackling at the foundation of our democracy, fanning on the 70M+ who voted Trump and deepening their distrust of our core systems.

These actions have a cost, and it's not a minor one. Given that we did not get the landslide we'd hoped for, this degradation of our norms and weakening of the system is going to continue. Where does it end? I increasingly fail to see any endgame that results in America regaining its resilience against autocracy. The damage is done, and continues to be done even after Biden 'won.'

And this is entirely separate from the additional damage that is/will be done by delaying (realistically: removing) any actual good-faith transition effort.

We're fucked.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by noxiousdog »

El Guapo wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:42 am
Little Raven wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:38 am That's fair. I'm not going to be terrified by Trump's last flails, but we are in uncharted territory and suspicion is warranted.

But boy, is he ever bad at this. And he's had a couple of examples of successfully transforming a democracy into an autocracy to study just in my lifetime!
I'm not quite ready to say that he's bad at this. He's successfully brought a major political party to heel, mostly succeeded at transforming the DoJ into a weapon against his enemies, curtailed a large portion of the federal bureaucracy, nearly won enough time via reelection to consolidate power, and still has at least some shot at retaining power.

I'll breathe a little easier when results are certified.
I with you on this. It's Cruz and Graham that make me nervous. Those guys get on a lot of TV.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Jaymann »

noxiousdog wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:11 am
El Guapo wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:42 am
Little Raven wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:38 am That's fair. I'm not going to be terrified by Trump's last flails, but we are in uncharted territory and suspicion is warranted.

But boy, is he ever bad at this. And he's had a couple of examples of successfully transforming a democracy into an autocracy to study just in my lifetime!
I'm not quite ready to say that he's bad at this. He's successfully brought a major political party to heel, mostly succeeded at transforming the DoJ into a weapon against his enemies, curtailed a large portion of the federal bureaucracy, nearly won enough time via reelection to consolidate power, and still has at least some shot at retaining power.

I'll breathe a little easier when results are certified.
I with you on this. It's Cruz and Graham that make me nervous. Those guys get on a lot of TV.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Alefroth »

Of course they did, because, you know, that's the way it's always been done.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by malchior »

Realclearpolitics.com lost its mind last night and 'uncalled' the election. Why? Because they think PA is going to head to the Supreme Court. Way to commit relevancy suicide.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Jaymann »

Just a reminder: Biden wins without PA. Won't get reversed, but I'm just sayin'.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Octavious »

Andy Puzder was chief executive officer of CKE Restaurants following a career as an attorney. He was nominated by President Trump to serve as U.S. labor secretary. He is the author of "The Capitalist Comeback: The Trump Boom and the Left's Plot to Stop It."

We're really getting deep in the weeds now though. If I could I would seriously be relocating to another country. This one is in a nosedive. And that's the last time I visit that site.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Skinypupy »

malchior wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:15 pm Realclearpolitics.com lost its mind last night and 'uncalled' the election. Why? Because they think PA is going to head to the Supreme Court. Way to commit relevancy suicide.
Unless I'm missing something, that just reads like a run-of-the-mill "LIBERAL MEDIA BAD!!" opinion piece on why that dude thinks it shouldn't have been called.

I've never paid attention to their site. Did they retract a previous "call" or something?
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by pr0ner »

Skinypupy wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:35 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:15 pm Realclearpolitics.com lost its mind last night and 'uncalled' the election. Why? Because they think PA is going to head to the Supreme Court. Way to commit relevancy suicide.
Unless I'm missing something, that just reads like a run-of-the-mill "LIBERAL MEDIA BAD!!" opinion piece on why that dude thinks it shouldn't have been called.

I've never paid attention to their site. Did they retract a previous "call" or something?
AFAIK, RCP never "called" PA for Biden, so they never called a winner.

Like you, I think that's just an opinion piece that's being blown out of proportion.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by malchior »

pr0ner wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:23 pm
Skinypupy wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:35 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:15 pm Realclearpolitics.com lost its mind last night and 'uncalled' the election. Why? Because they think PA is going to head to the Supreme Court. Way to commit relevancy suicide.
Unless I'm missing something, that just reads like a run-of-the-mill "LIBERAL MEDIA BAD!!" opinion piece on why that dude thinks it shouldn't have been called.

I've never paid attention to their site. Did they retract a previous "call" or something?
AFAIK, RCP never "called" PA for Biden, so they never called a winner.

Like you, I think that's just an opinion piece that's being blown out of proportion.
IMO this is more along the lines of the Trump version of events being soft normalized through various channels. This isn't just a liberal media is bad thing. A lot of people think RCP is neutral/non-partisan. The reason this came on the radar was one of my more impressionable friends was messaging our group that maybe there was something to the Trump might have won story. Then I saw it trending on social media. This is how propaganda works - they seed it out and make is some sort of analytical piece but it is meant to push Trump's version out.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by RunningMn9 »

RCP is a polling aggregator, they don’t “call” elections. No one looks to them to call jack squat. Analyzing election results isn’t in their skill set. We know this because of articles like that. The media treated this election the way it treated all other elections.

When the math says it’s over, it’s over. Republicans disappointed in Romney’s 2012 loss didn’t lose their minds with distrust, because Romney didn’t spend four months prior to the election screaming about how it was going to be stolen from him. Romney’s base wasn’t made of the giant basket of vocal deplorables that Trump’s is.

Romney didn’t come out after he lost the election and then claim again that it was stolen from him (while then showing that fighting spirit by going to play golf).

The GOP has been sowing distrust in the election for months. Now they want to complain that the media didn’t bite?
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Jaymann »

Here is an actual lawyer analyzing all the bogus lawsuits filed by the Trump camp and their outcomes (90% + already dismissed).

TLDW: Nothing that has even a remote chance of changing the outcome.
A media campaign masquerading as a legal campaign.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Holman »

pr0ner wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:23 pm
Skinypupy wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:35 pm
malchior wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:15 pm Realclearpolitics.com lost its mind last night and 'uncalled' the election. Why? Because they think PA is going to head to the Supreme Court. Way to commit relevancy suicide.
Unless I'm missing something, that just reads like a run-of-the-mill "LIBERAL MEDIA BAD!!" opinion piece on why that dude thinks it shouldn't have been called.

I've never paid attention to their site. Did they retract a previous "call" or something?
AFAIK, RCP never "called" PA for Biden, so they never called a winner.

Like you, I think that's just an opinion piece that's being blown out of proportion.
Yeah, I think RCP has had PA grey (uncalled) since election day. They didn't roll anything back.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by ImLawBoy »

Jaymann wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:05 pm Here is an actual lawyer analyzing all the bogus lawsuits filed by the Trump camp and their outcomes (90% + already dismissed).

TLDW: Nothing that has even a remote chance of changing the outcome.
A media campaign masquerading as a legal campaign.
Aw, man. If I knew there was a market for a real lawyer analyzing these lawsuits I wouldn't have flushed this morning!
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Hyena »

This might have been covered earlier, but I didn't see it with a quick skim.

If Trump is as rich as he says, why is he launching all these "gofundme" type things through Republicans to pay for his legal fight? I mean, if the $400 million he owes to some mystery "I don't remember" person is "peanuts" as he calls it, why is he raising money through his son's bully tactics on the Republican base?
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Hyena wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:56 pm This might have been covered earlier, but I didn't see it with a quick skim.

If Trump is as rich as he says, why is he launching all these "gofundme" type things through Republicans to pay for his legal fight? I mean, if the $400 million he owes to some mystery "I don't remember" person is "peanuts" as he calls it, why is he raising money through his son's bully tactics on the Republican base?
Because he's cheap, venal, and not really a billionaire.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Hyena »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:57 pm
Hyena wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:56 pm This might have been covered earlier, but I didn't see it with a quick skim.

If Trump is as rich as he says, why is he launching all these "gofundme" type things through Republicans to pay for his legal fight? I mean, if the $400 million he owes to some mystery "I don't remember" person is "peanuts" as he calls it, why is he raising money through his son's bully tactics on the Republican base?
Because he's cheap, venal, and not really a billionaire.
Yeah, that was my assumption as well. Thanks for the validation! :P
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Holman »

ImLawBoy wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:31 pm Aw, man. If I knew there was a market for a real lawyer analyzing these lawsuits I wouldn't have flushed this morning!
:lol:
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Blackhawk »

They know they can't change the outcome. They're just trying to sow doubt that will get a 'revenge vote' in a couple of years.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Defiant »

But isn't there a chance it will backfire? If you convince your voters that it's "rigged", they might not bother to vote.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Tao »

Hyena wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:56 pm This might have been covered earlier, but I didn't see it with a quick skim.

If Trump is as rich as he says, why is he launching all these "gofundme" type things through Republicans to pay for his legal fight? I mean, if the $400 million he owes to some mystery "I don't remember" person is "peanuts" as he calls it, why is he raising money through his son's bully tactics on the Republican base?
From what I have read the first several funds that were set up to collect donations for legal fees to fight the election outcome all had a disclaimer in the fine print that said up to 50% of donation could be used toward retiring campaign debt. I've read some speculation that a large part of the election fight is a big grift to milk the rubes. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump has figured out some way to keep some of the money himself.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by gilraen »

Tao wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:42 pm
Hyena wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 4:56 pm This might have been covered earlier, but I didn't see it with a quick skim.

If Trump is as rich as he says, why is he launching all these "gofundme" type things through Republicans to pay for his legal fight? I mean, if the $400 million he owes to some mystery "I don't remember" person is "peanuts" as he calls it, why is he raising money through his son's bully tactics on the Republican base?
From what I have read the first several funds that were set up to collect donations for legal fees to fight the election outcome all had a disclaimer in the fine print that said up to 50% of donation could be used toward retiring campaign debt. I've read some speculation that a large part of the election fight is a big grift to milk the rubes. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump has figured out some way to keep some of the money himself.
Keith Olbermann covered it in his YouTube video yesterday. His style may not be everyone's cup of tea, but he makes some pretty good points on the matter.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Enough »

This (click at your own risk lol) is some really slick and disturbing propaganda. I bet Trump brings it up tonight.

Edit for longform rant: The dead giveaway they are not actual data scientists is that they give the "Without Voter Fraud" vote totals for each candidate as exact numbers LOL, they would be crucified by any real statistics person for not expressing it as a range based on multiple simulations. They are people looking for evidence for something they KNOW to be true, not scientists investigating the data for hypotheses to test to find out maybe even things they don't want to be true.

You can't see any of their math behind the statistical analysis they claim to be doing to show fraud. My guess is they are using Bedford's Law to predict fraud which is a misuse of the technique. Primer on their math and why it's a misuse of statistics here.

And this is the entire methods section
Spoiler:
Fraud Disaggregation

The fraud disaggregation process uses a large amount of voter patterns and proven statistical methods to find and document mathematical anomalies indicative of voter fraud or ballot tampering.

As we collect and analyze more data we will be able to demonstrate with increasing granularity the difference between an election without tampering and one with more anomalies, which are indicative of tampering

Our preliminary analysis demonstrates significant fraud, and there are multiple additional data sets and fraud examples that will be analysed and released in the coming days.
That's it, no equations they used, no actual stat methods beyond their general description, nada. And of course they depict the fraud as (predictably lol) all Democratic Party. Ugh, low-info folks are gonna eat this shit up.
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by Jaymann »

Wouldn't that same "analysis" prove fraud in states that Trump won?
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Re: 2020 Election Results

Post by malchior »

That domain was registered on Thursday noonish east coast time. It is always notable when a 'public information' site is hiding who is running it. The less transparency a site has the less you usually can trust it when it's political. It could be anybody running it. I spent about 20 minutes digging in but this one is tough to crack. The usual tricks aren't working. The TOS clauses for example are usually weak spots. They haven't been lifted from elsewhere or re-used from another site (or I just haven't found it yet). That usually gets you on the breadcrumb trail. That was one of the ways we were able to track all the 'Liberate' sites back in early pandemic back to grifting GOP fuckheads.

That said this is clearly organized. Every Republican keeps repeating the phrase 'Every Legal Vote'. This is a propaganda campaign. At first look it is meant to deliver unity with the message.
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Enough
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Re: 2020 Election Results

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Jaymann wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:19 pm Wouldn't that same "analysis" prove fraud in states that Trump won?
One would think, but after clicking on with and without fraud, it seems only the Biden numbers change and I have been unable to find a single example of Trump's vote changing. :roll:
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Re: 2020 Election Results

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malchior wrote: Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:27 pm That domain was registered on Thursday noonish east coast time. It is always notable when a 'public information' site is hiding who is running it. The less transparency a site has the less you usually can trust it when it's political. It could be anybody running it. I spent about 20 minutes digging in but this one is tough to crack. The usual tricks aren't working. The TOS clauses for example are usually weak spots. They haven't been lifted from elsewhere or re-used from another site (or I just haven't found it yet). That usually gets you on the breadcrumb trail. That was one of the ways we were able to track all the 'Liberate' sites back in early pandemic back to grifting GOP fuckheads.

That said this is clearly organized. Every Republican keeps repeating the phrase 'Every Legal Vote'. This is a propaganda campaign. At first look it is meant to deliver unity with the message.
Good call digging into the site info. I only found out about this because of Trumpwads getting super psyched about it and forwarding it to friends/relatives who now want my take on the site.
My blog (mostly photos): Fort Ephemera - My Flickr Photostream

“You only get one sunrise and one sunset a day, and you only get so many days on the planet. A good photographer does the math and doesn’t waste either.” ―Galen Rowell
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Re: 2020 Election Results

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