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Too soon to start thinking about 2022 Senate election?

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Jaymann
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Too soon to start thinking about 2022 Senate election?

Post by Jaymann »

This could very well be the election that determines the future of democracy/rule of law in the US. I count 20 Repugnicans (3 retiring) and only 12 Democrats (plus either Loeffler or Warnock in GA) up for election. Without the massive anti-Agolf movement, it is critical that the Dems start mobilizing their ground game now, in order to offset voter suppression and misinformation (one insidious example is telling young voters on social media that they can vote by text).

Without the Senate, Biden will be hamstrung, and no decent judges will get appointed. THIS is the big one.
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Holman
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2022 Senate election?

Post by Holman »

First of all, congrats I guess on breaking the seal on 2022. :evil:

It should be a Dem-friendly year, though. Unless the Biden administration is an absolute catastrophe, the Dems are looking at protecting safe Blue seats while the Republicans are defending some safe Reds but also some swing states.

Georgia will also continue to be a battleground, as one of the senate races there right now is a replacement term that's up in 2022.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2022 Senate election?

Post by Isgrimnur »

:text-banplz:
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Ralph-Wiggum
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2022 Senate election?

Post by Ralph-Wiggum »

Don't midterms usually swing against the incumbent? While the Dems will have to defend fewer seats, I wouldn't expect many, if any, Dem gains. IMO, the two races in Georgia are the best shot the Dems have of taking the senate.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2022 Senate election?

Post by gameoverman »

Trying to predict political futures during an unpredictable pandemic is a bold move. I'll play. If the Republicans hold on to the senate, I expect them to shut down just about every move Biden attempts. This will mean from next month until 2022 the Biden presidency will be inert. Those midterms will then be question of who sells their story best? Republicans will point to Biden as a terrible and ineffective President. Democrats will need to point out all the things Republican leaders did for almost two years to block any progress.

Wildcards: What will Trump say and do during this time? He doesn't really like Republicans as such, he likes Trumpers. He may try to form his own party. If something like that happened it's possible the midterms are much easier for Democrats to win because the right wing vote will be split.

Another wildcard would be the possible end of the pandemic. If the vaccines work and enough people get vaccinated then we might see the economy really bounce back during the next two years. If that happens then Democrats will have a strong foundation for winning seats in 2022.

If, for some reason, the country is in pretty much the same position in 2022 that it is in now, Democrats are farked. If the vaccines don't work, or the virus mutates, or the economy simply stagnates, or anti-vaxxers are numerous enough that it still remains unsafe to reopen a lot of businesses, these are all potential recovery killers. No recovery=no Democrat wins.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2022 Senate election?

Post by YellowKing »

I'm pinning my hopes on vaccine working + end of pandemic = huge economic recovery = Biden boom. If that happens, I think it's going to be very difficult for Republicans to paint Biden as an ineffective President. It's not going to stop them from trying, and they'll claim Trump made the vaccine possible and Biden is just taking credit, blah blah blah. I think that messaging will fall on deaf ears as people get out and start living life again.
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Jaymann
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2022 Senate election?

Post by Jaymann »

It is bizarre to think the best hope for democracy may rest on Agolf forming his own party. And he is enough of a narcissistic megalomaniac to think it would work. Bull Moose is already taken but Bull ____ is up for grabs.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2022 Senate election?

Post by $iljanus »

YellowKing wrote:I'm pinning my hopes on vaccine working + end of pandemic = huge economic recovery = Biden boom. If that happens, I think it's going to be very difficult for Republicans to paint Biden as an ineffective President. It's not going to stop them from trying, and they'll claim Trump made the vaccine possible and Biden is just taking credit, blah blah blah. I think that messaging will fall on deaf ears as people get out and start living life again.
You're always going to have the Trump or die folks but nothing beats success. Don't need to convince everyone but just win over enough people to start swinging elections towards sane adults.

Will be a bit of a battle because if anything this pandemic and election shows that too many people like living in a bleak fantasy world of conspiracies, paranoia and feeling perpetually persecuted but what's the alternative?
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2022 Senate election?

Post by Defiant »

It's way, way, too early to have thoughts on this, so here's my way too early thoughts on this.

Given the geography, I think Democrats gaining a seat or two in the Senate is plausible, even if it's a typical Presidential midterm election.

But I think there's a good chance they lose the House.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2022 Senate election?

Post by pr0ner »

Isgrimnur wrote: Mon Dec 14, 2020 5:26 pm :text-banplz:
Co-sign.
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Holman
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2022 Senate election?

Post by Holman »

PA's John Fetterman has announced that he is planning to run for Senate in 2022. This would be for the seat opening up with Pat Toomey's retirement.

There was some thought that he might run for Governor instead, but I will *love* to see him go to Washington.
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2022 Senate election?

Post by El Guapo »

Holman wrote: Fri Jan 08, 2021 12:41 pm PA's John Fetterman has announced that he is planning to run for Senate in 2022. This would be for the seat opening up with Pat Toomey's retirement.

There was some thought that he might run for Governor instead, but I will *love* to see him go to Washington.
You would think that he would have a fairly compelling bipartisan argument of "send me to Congress so that I can protect it against any further insurrections."
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Jaymann
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Re: Too soon to start thinking about 2022 Senate election?

Post by Jaymann »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Jan 08, 2021 12:44 pm
Holman wrote: Fri Jan 08, 2021 12:41 pm PA's John Fetterman has announced that he is planning to run for Senate in 2022. This would be for the seat opening up with Pat Toomey's retirement.

There was some thought that he might run for Governor instead, but I will *love* to see him go to Washington.
You would think that he would have a fairly compelling bipartisan argument of "send me to Congress so that I can protect it against any further insurrections."
His opponent will doubtless depend heavily on the dead mother vote.
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