Capitol Riot Investigation Thread

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:51 am

To make a slightly clumsy analogy we have a Democratic party that appears very much stamped in the model of a Chamberlain or Halifax. There are a couple of models I try to pin on this behavior.

Right now I lean heavily towards the full Chamberlain model which is that they are incompetent. They can't or won't face the threat. They are blinded to reality by many factors but a major one is their own belief in the inherent goodness of our nation. They can't process that the other side is now radicalized, believe in a very different and frankly dark vision of where we should be, and is willing to do anything to win. That is what I lump in as incompetence.

There is a competing model that I don't have enough evidence for that wonders if they have appraised they can't win so they constantly seek a peace they can live with. They seek common ground despite the other side always saying 'no'. Even when they'd ordinarily say 'yes' if it was them in the driver's seat. They know what is happening and are trying to soft land the badness coming. They think by looking like they tried to play nice that they'll be treated well. Maybe that'd even work out for them. They might get an opportunity to kiss the ring. Who knows.

Whatever the case, neither of these models are 'complete' and could just be wrong. The whole is much more complex but I find even incomplete models useful still to help navigate this chaos. And I keep waiting for a Churchill to emerge. I won't hold my breath.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:56 am

Kurth wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:42 am That’s all well and good, Smoove, but what does it mean to recognize and then “respond accordingly?” If you believe in the fundamental pillars of law and due process, how are you supposed to respond accordingly to an adversary who is actively working to undermine those pillars?

In my experience, there are always windows - time frames to act and to respond, plus a window that's given to someone else (like a subpoena). My impression so far is that maximum time is being given for every step in the process. And to Zaxxon's point above, there's not a sense (again, my impression) that meetings are being stacked up in a way that they know what's coming or likely to happen so when it does, immediately respond. Instead, it's been a long, slow roll (following protocol) where they're moving from step to step as things end and the next step needs to happen.

A very very local (and small) example. When I issue a violation notice for something, of course I'm reasonable and extend the maximum allowable time to mitigate whatever is happening. If it's a repeat violation or there's no response to the first one? I'm not going to write another letter and give someone another 30 days to address the problem. Now I'm down to 3 business days from receipt and failure to mitigate results in a daily fine, hand it off to the court.

So I'm advocating that we still follow the process but move with purpose. And perhaps start to proactively take the temperature and be ready to immediately respond to something. I fully believe a significant part of the problem is that multiple actors are able to drag this out. If the response was swift and had teeth? I'd like to believe it would help. Or maybe I need to believe it would help.

How we deal with what's happening locally in various states where they're gerrymandering and replacing election officials with Q-cultists, I have no idea. But if people can continue to ignore subpoenas like they did under Trump? Start packing.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:59 pm

Capitol police officer charged

He expressed sympathy on social media and used inside knowledge to tip off rioters to take down evidence implicating them.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Fri Oct 15, 2021 2:35 pm

Good.

Zarathud · Post by **Zarathud** » Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:34 pm

One problem is that any rushed process increases the risk of being overturned in a now heavily dominated Trump judiciary. Slow isn’t good, but getting blocked is worse.

This level of obstruction is supposed to cause political backlash. And Trump+Fox+Facebook have broken those pressures.

It’s not politics that is broken. It’s society — if the Republicans embrace Trump or radical unfounded agendas, they’re rewarded not penalized.

I also blame the money that McConnell allowed into politics, as it built up the RINO purges and Fox and dark influence that feeds Trump.

Carpet_pissr · Post by **Carpet_pissr** » Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:34 pm

If you’re referring to Citizens United, I think that was a huge milestone toward guiding the train towards the cliff edge.

Not sure why I’m stuck on the train/cliff analogy.

Kurth · Post by **Kurth** » Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:47 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:51 am To make a slightly clumsy analogy we have a Democratic party that appears very much stamped in the model of a Chamberlain or Halifax. There are a couple of models I try to pin on this behavior.

Right now I lean heavily towards the full Chamberlain model which is that they are incompetent. They can't or won't face the threat. They are blinded to reality by many factors but a major one is their own belief in the inherent goodness of our nation. They can't process that the other side is now radicalized, believe in a very different and frankly dark vision of where we should be, and is willing to do anything to win. That is what I lump in as incompetence.

There is a competing model that I don't have enough evidence for that wonders if they have appraised they can't win so they constantly seek a peace they can live with. They seek common ground despite the other side always saying 'no'. Even when they'd ordinarily say 'yes' if it was them in the driver's seat. They know what is happening and are trying to soft land the badness coming. They think by looking like they tried to play nice that they'll be treated well. Maybe that'd even work out for them. They might get an opportunity to kiss the ring. Who knows.

Whatever the case, neither of these models are 'complete' and could just be wrong. The whole is much more complex but I find even incomplete models useful still to help navigate this chaos. And I keep waiting for a Churchill to emerge. I won't hold my breath.

I don’t think your analogy is clumsy, but I also don’t think it really fits what’s happening here today. Chamberlain and Halifax were reluctant to confront an external threat. They thought they could buy Hitler off and limit him to being someone else’s problem.

I think there’s a major distinction between what Halifax and Chamberlain were confronting and what the Dem leadership is facing right now. Leaders today in the U.S. are not facing any external threat. They’re facing an internal one, and that changes the game significantly. What do you do when your own citizens - the people you are supposed to be representing - have developed a blind allegiance to a fascist (and his fascist cronies) who want to destroy this democracy? I mean, it’s absurd. A man who actively sought to ignore the results of the last election and stay in power (and who has recently told his followers not to even bother voting) is going to be one of two choices to be the next president of this country because that’s what nearly half of the voters in this country want.

What are you supposed to do against that?

[I’m not asking that rhetorically - I really hope someone has an answer that will make me feel a little better.]

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Oct 15, 2021 5:32 pm

Yeah. I was not so much aiming at the external/internal element. It was more along the risk analysis turning to meaningful action axis where Chamberlain/Halifax underestimated the threat from the beginning to when it was undeniable that they were wrong. Back to us, the Democrats should have seen this threat rising but missed it. Then it arrived and battered them over and over and they still didn't understand it. Now it threatens to overrun them utterly...and they still can't get their shit together to even have a chance to face it. We even keep trying to appease them fearing they'll get unruly. They've already attacked the Capitol! That ship has sailed.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Fri Oct 15, 2021 5:58 pm

I wonder if this is what life in Germany felt like in the 1930s. There, I Godwinized it.

Little Raven · Post by **Little Raven** » Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:09 pm

Kurth wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:47 pmWhat are you supposed to do against that?

We've been wrestling with this question for 2500 years. Well, probably longer, but that's about as far back as the historical record currently goes.

Dictatorship naturally arises out of democracy, and the most aggravated form of tyranny and slavery out of the most extreme liberty.

As far as I know, nobody has come up with a great answer.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Sun Oct 17, 2021 5:43 pm

Little Raven wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:09 pm
Kurth wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:47 pmWhat are you supposed to do against that?
We've been wrestling with this question for 2500 years. Well, probably longer, but that's about as far back as the historical record currently goes.

Dictatorship naturally arises out of democracy, and the most aggravated form of tyranny and slavery out of the most extreme liberty.

As far as I know, nobody has come up with a great answer.

FWIW, Plato's sample size was miniscule. His anti-democratic animus was largely a product of his contrarianism. He was the H.L. Mencken of ancient Athens.

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Mon Oct 18, 2021 4:54 pm

Oh look Trump sued to block the release of documents. We haven't seen this gameplan before. Maybe in 10-12 year after 900 appeals they will get something.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Mon Oct 18, 2021 7:01 pm

Octavious wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 4:54 pm Oh look Trump sued to block the release of documents. We haven't seen this gameplan before. Maybe in 10-12 year after 900 appeals they will get something.

Now it'll come down to which judge this lands with. If it is a Trump judge they very well could slow track it, issue an order, and start a slow appeals train. DOJ will probably oblige this to make sure they dot the i's on the executive privilege claims. In any case, it probably kiboshes the document production for months. Luckily the Democrats pissed away most of the year dicking around and played into Trump's hands...again.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:49 pm

Well, it's unanimous!

Breaking: The Jan. 6 select committee has just voted unanimously — 9 to 0 — to recommend holding Steve Bannon be held in contempt for refusing to comply with a subpoena for their investigation.

Paingod · Post by **Paingod** » Wed Oct 20, 2021 11:53 am

/slow golf clap

Defiant · Post by **Defiant** » Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:20 pm

Should have been unanimous (or near unanimous)

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Thu Oct 21, 2021 5:04 pm

coopasonic · Post by **coopasonic** » Thu Oct 21, 2021 5:15 pm

Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Thu Oct 21, 2021 5:04 pm

Too fast.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Thu Oct 21, 2021 5:17 pm

malchior wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 7:01 pm
Octavious wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 4:54 pm Oh look Trump sued to block the release of documents. We haven't seen this gameplan before. Maybe in 10-12 year after 900 appeals they will get something.
Now it'll come down to which judge this lands with. If it is a Trump judge they very well could slow track it, issue an order, and start a slow appeals train. DOJ will probably oblige this to make sure they dot the i's on the executive privilege claims. In any case, it probably kiboshes the document production for months. Luckily the Democrats pissed away most of the year dicking around and played into Trump's hands...again.

Does the select committee have its authority only from the House, or from the House and the Senate? The problem is that unless the political and electoral situation improves, Trump and the GOP *probably* only need to delay this until January 2023, at which point the House and/or Senate will suddenly become completely uninterested in investigating.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Oct 21, 2021 5:39 pm

House only. I was very disappointed when they dragged it out to an announcement in July for that reason. Now we're mid-October and we're seeing the first witness issues. The urgency/clock management has just not been there.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Oct 22, 2021 12:11 pm

McCarthy implements consulting embargo on Cheney

A prominent Washington lobbyist close to Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader, is warning Republican political consultants that they must choose between working for Representative Liz Cheney or Mr. McCarthy, an ultimatum that marks the full rupture between the two House Republicans.

Jeff Miller, the lobbyist and a confidant of Mr. McCarthy’s dating to their youthful days in California politics, has conveyed this us-or-her message to Republican strategists in recent weeks, prompting one fund-raising firm to disassociate itself from Ms. Cheney, a Republican from Wyoming.

In response, The Morning Group, a fund-raising firm she hired to help prepare for a primary next year against a challenger endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump, informed her last month they could no longer work on her campaign, according to Republicans familiar with the matter.

Mr. Miller’s warnings illustrate the disintegration of the relationship between the two lawmakers, who began this year serving together in the House Republican leadership. They also underline Mr. McCarthy’s willingness to wield his leadership position to undercut Ms. Cheney’s re-election and head off an impediment to his claiming the speakership, should Republicans win a House majority next year. Were Ms. Cheney to return to Congress, she would loom as a potential instigator of any effort to block Mr. McCarthy from leading their party in the House.

Greg Sargent contextualizes why this isn't just a 'disagreement' between McCarthy and Cheney.

It’s typical for party leaders to exercise discipline with hardball tactics. But Daniel Ziblatt, co-author of “How Democracies Die,” notes a key nuance: What’s being enforced entails punishment for seeking accountability for the elite overseers of anti-democratic street violence and an effort to disrupt democracy at its foundation.

“It’s not as if they’re enforcing this party discipline over Cheney on a tax bill,” Ziblatt told me. Remember: McCarthy also openly threatened that a GOP majority would punish private companies that cooperate with the Jan. 6 probe.

“This is how democracies get into trouble,” Ziblatt said. “It’s not just violence in the streets, it’s how the establishment responds.”

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Fri Oct 22, 2021 12:41 pm

A partial list of how support traitors according to Jeff Miller's lobbying site

a partial list of our clients includes:
‍
Altria
Amazon Web Services
Amgen
AshBritt Environmental
Aspect Holdings
The Blackstone Group
Broadcom, Inc.
Charles Schwab
Dow Chemical
Energy Transfer Partners
FirstEnergy
Fresenius Medical Care North America
GRAIL
ID.me
Ligado Networks
Oak View Group
Occidental Petroleum Corporation
Pernod Ricard USA
PG&E
PhRMA
S&B Engineers and Constructors
Sentinel Midstream
Southern Company
Tampa Bay Fisheries
Valero
Western Growers Association
Yocha Dehe Wintun Nation

Octavious · Post by **Octavious** » Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:53 pm

So the judge that is going to hear the case on Nov 4th on executive privilege is S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan who was appointed by Obama. So I guess that's at least not bad news. 55 appeals later and this will all be sorted out.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:41 am

I missed this but what a doozy. The shamelessness is a given. For me, we have a pants on fire democracy crisis and apparently everyone is too busy doing the same old useless shit to cross off some time to deal with it. It's pure madness at this point.

hepcat · Post by **hepcat** » Sat Oct 23, 2021 8:09 am

on a side note, he also just released another ridiculously petty statement using his favorite letterhead in which he blasts Meghan McCain and calls her a lowlife then claims he was the reason her father had the "longest" funeral in the world. Oh, and he tosses in a bit about voter fraud too for good measure.

Can the limbo bar go any lower? I'm sure it can with this idiot.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sat Oct 23, 2021 1:36 pm

Imagine that, treat insurrectionists with kid gloves and they continue to cause problems:

An Arizona political commentator charged in the US Capitol riot spoke at a small right-wing rally in Phoenix last month that was attended by over a dozen Proud Boys, even though a federal judge had ordered him not to associate with any members of the extremist group.

Pictures posted online and a video obtained by CNN from an attendee show Micajah Jackson near a group of Proud Boys, spouting conspiracies about January 6. This raises questions of whether he violated the conditions of his pre-trial release, or at the least gave fresh material to prosecutors that they could use against him in court, as they have in other Capitol riot cases.

...

Jackson was charged with four misdemeanors that the Justice Department has used against hundreds of other rioters who aren't accused of attacking police or destroying property — including entering a restricted building and unlawfully protesting at the US Capitol. He has pleaded not guilty.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:17 pm

My "favorite" part of the piece below. He had no idea a bunch of right-wing fascists would attend the right-wing fascism event?! Indeed. Oh and he didn't take any pictures with them. They stayed a good 6 feet away from him while he took photos -- I mean close enough to actually be in the photo -- but I guess not close enough to 'associate' with them!? That's a meaningful difference.

Maria Jacob, a public defender who represents Jackson, told CNN in a statement that Jackson didn't directly associate with any Proud Boys, and therefore is complying with the release order.

"Mr. Jackson did not have any contact with any members of the Proud Boys at the Justice for J6 rally and had no knowledge that any of its members would attend. The government is aware of the allegations and to date has filed no suggestion of a violation or request for action," she said.

There's no indication Jackson took pictures with any Proud Boys or knew they'd be at the rally. If he is convicted, prosecutors could bring up this incident at sentencing -- in similar cases, prosecutors have advocated for harsher punishments by citing rioters' incendiary rhetoric and nonchalance toward court orders.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:19 am

How twisted is it that Costa and Woodward have a better understanding of the coup than Congress. (Actually I think they know damn well - they just won't tell us straight up they *can't* do anything about it).

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Oct 24, 2021 6:23 pm

This is the type of nation we potentially unlocked when we didn't take the events of 1/6 seriously.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:44 pm

This seems like kind of a big deal if true.

EXCLUSIVE: Jan. 6 Protest Organizers Say They Participated in "Dozens" of Planning Meetings With Members of Congress and White House Staff

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:48 pm

I was going to just post about that. The article is really interesting but it again raises many more questions. I'm sure we'll get an accurate accounting of all this quickly. If only there was some governmental function that could dedicate resources to this...

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:15 pm

Welp here we have Eastman pretty much boasting/admitting to laying out the "legal" rationale for Trump's 1/6 coup on tape.

Days ago this lying sack of shit was downplaying the whole thing. Meanwhile he is just yucking it up.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Oct 27, 2021 7:26 pm

More Eastman video is dropping. Our democracy is circling the drain. They are 'openly' talking about these things where they believe they have loose confidence. That's not far from saying it out in the completely in the open to throw it in our faces.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Wed Oct 27, 2021 8:17 pm

Also interesting to see - some of the Capitol rioters are chaffing at the pre-trial restrictions they face for trying to overthrow the government.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Wed Oct 27, 2021 8:32 pm

Probably mad they're not able to get a pass to go see an NFL game like some of their co-conspirators.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Oct 28, 2021 8:36 am

I'm curious what their before attitudes on pre-trial incarceration for violent crimes and acts nor alleged acts of sedition was before.

Also is Eastman just a compulsive liar like the 45th president is or is he delusional like the 45th president is becoming or is he both? I can't tell. I get pretty ingdignant when it comes to what they have been doing in my state and don't necessarily think with the clearest of head. Either or fuck him down the throat just like Ken Paxton who appears to be one of his co conspirators in the literal sense.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Oct 28, 2021 8:46 am

LordMortis wrote: ↑Thu Oct 28, 2021 8:36 amAlso is Eastman just a compulsive liar like the 45th president is or is he delusional like the 45th president is becoming or is he both?

He is a liar for sure. We have no doubt he wrote the memo. Reports are he pushed hard for action on it. He was photographed at the 1/6 war room. When pressed on it later he carefully picked a conservative news outlet (the National Review) to do his wink and nod push back session. He "distanced himself" in what to be fair was a pretty decent deep dive by the reporter involved. The reporter did a good job on the interview at least but it was a cynical self-serving vehicle for Eastman and felt completely inauthentic. Now in a 'trusted' space he is caught basically saying something completely different from the National Review interview, essentially saying the plot was for real, and he is detailing how it'll work next time. He is pretty much validating all the worries about future election problems.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Thu Oct 28, 2021 10:42 pm

Another good video - he explains how one of the judges blew up on the prosecutors today for being inconsistent about how they describe the danger of the behavior versus the slap on the wrist they are pleading out.

Buzzfeed has good coverage on this as well

US District Chief Judge Beryl Howell has been one of the most outspoken members of the bench in denouncing the Capitol riots. She previously questioned whether the Justice Department was letting defendants off too lightly in plea deals. But in sentencing Jack Griffith of Tennessee to three years of probation instead of the three months behind bars that the government wanted, she explained that the court had an obligation to avoid “unwarranted” differences in sentencing — effectively finding that the government had undercut its own case.

Howell repeatedly expressed puzzlement at how the Justice Department was managing the Jan. 6 cases, especially for defendants charged solely with misdemeanor crimes. She questioned prosecutors using “scorching” rhetoric to describe the severity of the attack on the Capitol while also using words like “trespass” to describe what some defendants, including Griffith, did that day. She described the government’s brief as “almost schizophrenic.”

She also pressed prosecutors to explain why the government was offering plea deals for low-level charges that limited judges’ options at sentencing, especially when prosecutors had articulated that one goal of these cases was to prevent a similar postelection attack on the peaceful transfer of power in the future.

“This is a muddled approach by the government,” she said. It is “no wonder,” she said, that some people “are confused about whether what happened on Jan. 6 was a petty offense of trespassing or shocking criminal conduct that represented a grave threat to our democratic norms.”

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Fri Oct 29, 2021 5:10 am

That report is just stupid. Given what he admitted to doing, I don't see how anything more than trespass is warranted. 10 minutes walking around with a sign is not the same as trying to break into the Senate chamber. One can admit the horror of one while also admitting the other actions don't rise to that level.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Fri Oct 29, 2021 5:37 am

stessier wrote: ↑Fri Oct 29, 2021 5:10 amThat report is just stupid. Given what he admitted to doing, I don't see how anything more than trespass is warranted. 10 minutes walking around with a sign is not the same as trying to break into the Senate chamber. One can admit the horror of one while also admitting the other actions don't rise to that level.

I totally agree that cases have their own nuances but that focus on the individual isn't the story that is being told here. The story is that the DOJ does not seem to have a consistent rubric for evaluating these cases and are using language in their briefs and pleadings that are sharply in contrast with the facts of the case (in this case undercutting their own argument for jail time) and between cases. The judge blasting the prosecutors for two and a half hours about it is also not solely about this individual case and the outcome.