What is to be done?

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El Guapo
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What is to be done?

Post by El Guapo »

Kind of borrowing the title from Vladimir Lenin, but I'm listening to a podcast on the Russian Revolution so the quote is in my mind.

Anyway, Democrats have control of Congress through 2022 and the Presidency in 2024 (though in some ways it may be more accurate to say that Manchin and Sinema have control of Congress). But after that, within the next 5 - 10 years there's a high chance that the GOP consolidates semi-permanent single party rule of the federal government and many states, and start Orbanizing the United States.

The question is - what can we do to help prevent this? Obviously particularly I have in mind what can be done from someone living in Massachusetts, who has very blue representatives who support a variety of democratic reforms and ending the filibuster. My impression is that calling the offices of officials who don't represent you doesn't really do anything.

Thoughts / suggestions / ideas?
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by Skinypupy »

I’m gonna bitch about it on Facebook and post clever memes.

That should solve everything
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by naednek »

I personally think after recent events, the fire has been stoked and both elections are in danger.

While I believe it was time to leave Afghanistan, how it was done did the democrats no favors and how Biden is handling the aftermath is a disaster.

I don't think 2022 and 2024 is a shoe in

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Re: What is to be done?

Post by LawBeefaroni »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:40 am
The question is - what can we do to help prevent this? Obviously particularly I have in mind what can be done from someone living in Massachusetts, who has very blue representatives who support a variety of democratic reforms and ending the filibuster. My impression is that calling the offices of officials who don't represent you doesn't really do anything.

Thoughts / suggestions / ideas?
Contact those who do represent you and let them know it is a pivotal moment and their failure to protect democracy would mean the end of America as we know it. I've let mine know, including my senator personally. Put yourself in their shoes. Most of the time they are financially set, their families are taken care of. They have no end of career options after office. Why do they need to fight this? You need to motivate them. Is that duty? Place in history? Appeal to decency?

If you are represented by the likes of Pelosi or Schumer, no idea what to say. Maybe the the GOP will probably liquidate their assets when they gain total control? Or have they already cut a deal?
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by malchior »

FWIW I don't think Orbanization is the only path. There is a distinct possibility we'll instead Balkanize between Red/Blue factions. The "Orban" scenario is more likely and leads to an orderly descent into a form of fascism that'll be America "like". The Balkan form would be more violent, disruptive, and likely to lead to partitioning of the United States. It is hard to know which will win out.

Edit: Both paths are not independent either. They have common roots - the imbalances in the system. They also have complementary features which accelerate both paths. Balkans-style violence may lead to more security which brings up the Orban path or the Orban path unleases waves of violence that overwhelm security and societal cohesion.

On an individual level I echo what Lawbeefaroni says. Let your representatives know that it is time to stand up. But also it is time for us individually to prepare for unrest.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by Blackhawk »

Mostly? I'm going to sit here and get a stress headache.

The thing is, there are solutions. There are multiple solutions, viable ones. I'd guess that there are probably a dozen workable plans sitting in democratic congresspeoples' desks right now. The problem is that nobody is willing to implement them. Nobody is willing to pay the personal/political costs for fixing it.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by El Guapo »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 10:02 am
El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:40 am
The question is - what can we do to help prevent this? Obviously particularly I have in mind what can be done from someone living in Massachusetts, who has very blue representatives who support a variety of democratic reforms and ending the filibuster. My impression is that calling the offices of officials who don't represent you doesn't really do anything.

Thoughts / suggestions / ideas?
Contact those who do represent you and let them know it is a pivotal moment and their failure to protect democracy would mean the end of America as we know it. I've let mine know, including my senator personally. Put yourself in their shoes. Most of the time they are financially set, their families are taken care of. They have no end of career options after office. Why do they need to fight this? You need to motivate them. Is that duty? Place in history? Appeal to decency?

If you are represented by the likes of Pelosi or Schumer, no idea what to say. Maybe the the GOP will probably liquidate their assets when they gain total control? Or have they already cut a deal?
Boston, so it's Warren Markey and Ayanna Pressley. Not a ton of room to get better on this stuff, which is good and bad I suppose.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by YellowKing »

We can't even get people to take a free vaccine that would nearly guarantee them from getting Covid and dying. I have no faith that anyone will do anything.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by El Guapo »

malchior wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 10:09 am FWIW I don't think Orbanization is the only path. There is a distinct possibility we'll instead Balkanize between Red/Blue factions. The "Orban" scenario is more likely and leads to an orderly descent into a form of fascism that'll be America "like". The Balkan form would be more violent, disruptive, and likely to lead to partitioning of the United States. It is hard to know which will win out.

Edit: Both paths are not independent either. They have common roots - the imbalances in the system. They also have complementary features which accelerate both paths. Balkans-style violence may lead to more security which brings up the Orban path or the Orban path unleases waves of violence that overwhelm security and societal cohesion.

On an individual level I echo what Lawbeefaroni says. Let your representatives know that it is time to stand up. But also it is time for us individually to prepare for unrest.
FWIW I think the odds of Balkan style violence or civil war are essentially zero. The Balkans is unbelievably different in that that was a case where you had different national identities that had been forced into a single state which was inherently unstable. It's an interesting thought experiment about whether California has enough of a distinct identity to lead to a secessionist movement if Trumpism consolidated an authoritarian national government, but there's almost no chance of that going anywhere anytime soon.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by $iljanus »

I'm not sure about the solutions but when a sizable percentage of the population thinks the other guy won the election and collectively shrugs at an insurrection at our nation's capital then I'm rather depressed about our options. And I'm tired being held hostage to the rabid GOP minority. Is the best that we can hope for is my family continuing to live "free" in the blue bubble that is Massachusetts? (sorry red state folks).
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by Isgrimnur »

YellowKing wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 10:38 am We can't even get people to take a free vaccine that would nearly guarantee them from getting Covid and dying. I have no faith that anyone will do anything.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by malchior »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 10:56 amFWIW I think the odds of Balkan style violence or civil war are essentially zero.
I think the chances are higher. Not significantly high but we are already seeing gangs of paramilitary thugs fighting on the streets.
The Balkans is unbelievably different in that that was a case where you had different national identities that had been forced into a single state which was inherently unstable.
It is different but it was meant as an analogy. The analogue is we are seeing we have an inherently unstable political situation that is seeing democratic backsliding happening at an increasing pace. We have also absolutely seen different national identities emerge aligned with tribal political interests. It is a view down the board at what happens when trust in your neighbors completely breaks down and you have no common belief in a governance approach. It is what could happen if the political system does not provide any mechanism to fairly share power. The signs of it are manifesting in people yelling at each other about masks, about vaccination, and against reason. We are seeing the beginning of political violence (e.g., the Capitol Riot). That's the vision for American balkanization. It won't be civil war in the State vs. State sense but we may see factional violence intra-community like the Balkan war.

Edit: FWIW that it leads to blue states and red states forming new nations is low but if widespread fighting (think late 60s but much worse) broke out - it'd be a real possibility. I think it's less likely than Orbanization because there is no profit in it for the elite.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by Kurth »

I imagine the prospect of Weimar-like political street fighting may seem distant in the metro Boston area, but posting from Portland, OR, it’s all too real these days.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by Smoove_B »

Other than supporting candidates that aren't looking to continue benefiting from being career politicians, I'm not sure what's left. I am firmly in the camp that believes the majority of elected officials are so disconnected from daily reality at this point nothing is going to change. And their wealth is connected to how they vote, so there's no interest on their part in changing anything - everything is working at intended. Just as a small microscopic example, NJ legalized recreational marijuana last November. My town voted 70% in favor to have recreational sales at a local level. Six GOP township elected officials voted earlier this summer to ban recreational sale in our town. Who are they representing?

Regardless, I'm ot feeling hopeful, quite frankly.

I'm not getting any sense of urgency over anything (voting, COVID, abortion, climate change, infrastructure, housing) from the Democrats and it's pretty clear the GOP is doing everything they can to undermine any forward motion that is being made while also setting up pathways to make sure they're never without power again.

I feel there's real potential for America to take an even darker turn in 2022 and 2024 at the rate we're going...and it's already pretty bleak.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by YellowKing »

60% of eligible voters can't even muster the energy to do that once every 4 years. They're not going to be out on the streets fighting anyone over their ideological beliefs. I think we could see violence, but it's going to be extremists fighting extremists.

That's not to downplay the danger here - as we saw on Jan. 6th - a relatively small number of extremists can still F things up.
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Re: What is to be done?

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YellowKing wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:59 pm 60% of eligible voters can't even muster the energy to do that once every 4 years. They're not going to be out on the streets fighting anyone over their ideological beliefs. I think we could see violence, but it's going to be extremists fighting extremists.

That's not to downplay the danger here - as we saw on Jan. 6th - a relatively small number of extremists can still F things up.
Would love to know the percentage of Germans taking part in the street fighting during the end days of the Weimar Republic just prior to the Nazi takeover. I’m guessing it’s a very, very small number.

The issue isn’t the number of people fighting in the streets. It’s that they’re out there in the first place. And we’re doing nothing about it. Symptomatic.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by YellowKing »

What are we supposed to do about it? The only power we have is the power of the vote. And until we have an election, not jack shit we can do. And if the GOP continues to get their way, we won't even be able to do anything about it then.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by El Guapo »

Kurth wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 12:50 pm I imagine the prospect of Weimar-like political street fighting may seem distant in the metro Boston area, but posting from Portland, OR, it’s all too real these days.
I'm sure that there would be some street fighting and the occasional capitol riot during the consolidation of an authoritarian government. I'm just saying that there wouldn't be Balkan style armed civil war.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by El Guapo »

YellowKing wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:37 pm What are we supposed to do about it? The only power we have is the power of the vote. And until we have an election, not jack shit we can do. And if the GOP continues to get their way, we won't even be able to do anything about it then.
Yeah what I'm mainly interested in figuring out is what can be done to preserve our right to vote and (probably more importantly) the right to have that vote count and matter.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by Archinerd »

Isgrimnur wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 11:20 am
YellowKing wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 10:38 am We can't even get people to take a free vaccine that would nearly guarantee them from getting Covid and dying. I have no faith that anyone will do anything.
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Re: What is to be done?

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All the GOP zealots need are state legislatures, state judges, local government positions, school boards, officials overseeing elections and key judges at the Federal level along with a sympathetic Supreme Court. And from what I’ve seen and read they’re pretty on track.

And all without a shot fired. If you’re forming militia and plotting bombings and kidnappings you’re doing it wrong. It’s all about political power.
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Re: What is to be done?

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$iljanus wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:52 pm All the GOP zealots need are state legislatures, state judges, local government positions, school boards, officials overseeing elections and key judges at the Federal level along with a sympathetic Supreme Court. And from what I’ve seen and read they’re pretty on track.

And all without a shot fired. If you’re forming militia and plotting bombings and kidnappings you’re doing it wrong. It’s all about political power.
This. The Dems will still wield some political power. They have a strong blue base in key areas, and some big money support. But they will probably become a semi-permanent minority party in Congress and the White House, reduced to obstructing only the most heinous Repugnican acts. We were fairly close to this before Nixon overplayed his hand. If Watergate happened today the Repugnicans would go into alternate reality mode.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by Kraken »

El Guapo wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 10:18 am Boston, so it's Warren Markey and Ayanna Pressley. Not a ton of room to get better on this stuff, which is good and bad I suppose.
Yeah, Warren and Markey are usually leading the charge on just about everything. I'm not thrilled with my rep (Lynch), so I dutifully vote against him every two years...but even he is liberal by the standards of most of the country, and votes the right way more often than not.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by Drazzil »

The only way to get out of this is through massive politically motivated violence from the left. Unfortunately we don't have an organized left in this country so I'm gonna say... nothing. We can't do a damn thing to save this country.
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Re: What is to be done?

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$iljanus wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:52 pm All the GOP zealots need are state legislatures, state judges, local government positions, school boards, officials overseeing elections and key judges at the Federal level along with a sympathetic Supreme Court. And from what I’ve seen and read they’re pretty on track.

And all without a shot fired. If you’re forming militia and plotting bombings and kidnappings you’re doing it wrong. It’s all about political power.
What about cutting off the indoctrination of willing foot soldiers at the source? Have billionaires buy up the radio stations in the midwest, fire all the right-wing talk show hosts, and put 60s music back on the air?
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Re: What is to be done?

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Drazzil wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 4:27 pm The only way to get out of this is through massive politically motivated violence from the left. Unfortunately we don't have an organized left in this country so I'm gonna say... nothing. We can't do a damn thing to save this country.
Every time something doesn’t go your way, you advocate violence. Honestly, your way of thinking IS the problem. You are the very thing you rail against.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by msteelers »

raydude wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 4:37 pm
$iljanus wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:52 pm All the GOP zealots need are state legislatures, state judges, local government positions, school boards, officials overseeing elections and key judges at the Federal level along with a sympathetic Supreme Court. And from what I’ve seen and read they’re pretty on track.

And all without a shot fired. If you’re forming militia and plotting bombings and kidnappings you’re doing it wrong. It’s all about political power.
What about cutting off the indoctrination of willing foot soldiers at the source? Have billionaires buy up the radio stations in the midwest, fire all the right-wing talk show hosts, and put 60s music back on the air?
I'm not sure how much sway the radio stations have anymore. Their listeners are very old, very conservative, and dying off rapidly and not being replaced.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by Holman »

GOTV is everything.

I've already bragged about my wife's efforts in 2020, when she organized a targeted effort to reach more than 14,000 likely-Dem-but-inactive voters in our corner of Philadelphia and is almost certainly responsible for bumping Biden's (et al) total by more than 3,000 votes. (Biden won PA by just 80,000 votes.)

She has now formed a PAC to continue such efforts going forward.

This is how you get beyond just "your one vote." It's possible to put time and sweat into organizing that will multiply your impact exponentially.
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Re: What is to be done?

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hepcat wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 4:58 pm
Drazzil wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 4:27 pm The only way to get out of this is through massive politically motivated violence from the left. Unfortunately we don't have an organized left in this country so I'm gonna say... nothing. We can't do a damn thing to save this country.
Every time something doesn’t go your way, you advocate violence. Honestly, your way of thinking IS the problem. You are the very thing you rail against.
Violence got us weekends, labor laws, and just about every civil right you can name It was either violence or the threat of it.

What'd voting get anyone? Biden, global warming, shredded social safety nets and the fucking neoliberal order. Wake up man.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by malchior »

msteelers wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 5:01 pmI'm not sure how much sway the radio stations have anymore. Their listeners are very old, very conservative, and dying off rapidly and not being replaced.
I don't know about this...yet. 26.5M people listen to conservative PM drive radio alone weekly. The median age of voters has been drifting upward and baby boomers are likely to be the longest living generation - even after COVID. And they vote in greater percentages. It's still very important.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by hepcat »

Drazzil wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 8:08 pm
hepcat wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 4:58 pm
Drazzil wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 4:27 pm The only way to get out of this is through massive politically motivated violence from the left. Unfortunately we don't have an organized left in this country so I'm gonna say... nothing. We can't do a damn thing to save this country.
Every time something doesn’t go your way, you advocate violence. Honestly, your way of thinking IS the problem. You are the very thing you rail against.
Violence got us weekends, labor laws, and just about every civil right you can name It was either violence or the threat of it.

What'd voting get anyone? Biden, global warming, shredded social safety nets and the fucking neoliberal order. Wake up man.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by Alefroth »

Drazzil wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 4:27 pm The only way to get out of this is through massive politically motivated violence from the left. Unfortunately we don't have an organized left in this country so I'm gonna say... nothing. We can't do a damn thing to save this country.
Get out there and do it then. What are you waiting for? You think Afghans should be bombed for not doing enough, what are you doing?
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by Alefroth »

hepcat wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 4:58 pm
Drazzil wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 4:27 pm The only way to get out of this is through massive politically motivated violence from the left. Unfortunately we don't have an organized left in this country so I'm gonna say... nothing. We can't do a damn thing to save this country.
Every time something doesn’t go your way, you advocate violence. Honestly, your way of thinking IS the problem. You are the very thing you rail against.
It's easy to advocate someone else doing violence.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by El Guapo »

Drazzil wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 8:08 pm

Violence got us weekends, labor laws, and just about every civil right you can name It was either violence or the threat of it.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by hepcat »

Everyone knows Loverboy got us weekends. :banana-rock:
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by Smoove_B »

Drazzil wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 8:08 pm Violence got us...labor laws
I suppose it depends on how you'd define "violence", but the single greatest event that influenced modern labor laws was the Triangle Shirtwaist Fire of 1911. All of our modern workplace safety regulations came from that event, excluding rules covering the work in mines (which came from the Monongah coal mine disaster of 1907).

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Re: What is to be done?

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Re: What is to be done?

Post by Carpet_pissr »

What are ‘weekends’? I don’t get those. :(
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by Kraken »

Carpet_pissr wrote: Fri Sep 03, 2021 10:07 pm What are ‘weekends’? I don’t get those. :(
Weekends are those days when you can catch up on your work because your clients are off the clock.
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Re: What is to be done?

Post by Kraken »

As for "what's to be done"...the steps aren't a mystery. End or modify the filibuster, pass the two voting rights bills, and expand the SCOTUS. Make DC a state. Democrats have to play the same game that the Republicans are playing (and winning). Unfortunately, they won't or can't and the clock is running out. And even if they do take off the gloves to seize the upper hand, that leaves us with two competing extremist parties. I suppose that's better than meekly yielding to the fascists -- I can get behind extremism in the cause of saving democracy -- but it's not exactly an ideal outcome.

Or I guess we can just go out and burn shit down now because that always turns out so well.
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