Will the Democrats self-destruct on reconciliation? Mixed results!

[Octavious]

So at the last minute he asks for the Hyde amendment to be put in? Ya we're fucked.

[malchior]

This a potentially volatile situation. As usual I think people are very much underestimating the risk levels we are seeing.

Risk levels? For what exactly? To speed the train actively falling off the cliff from intial inertia to terminal velocity? WATCH OUT EVERYBODY!! We're hitting the ground 3 seconds faster, now!

We are barreling towards a failure state but there are possible multiple destinations. I'm worrying about the one where we finally screw up one of these default situations. One political consultancy firm rates it at 20% right now. That doesn't make sense when it isn't a real issue. It is completely made up. Edit: Apparently they just kicked the can 2 months down the road to December. We're so very, very serious.

Another bad scenario is that the left splinters in the face of the obvious corrupt, plutocrats and starts purifying like the right did intensifying the political conflict. I can't wait for daily street fights in multiple cities if that starts to happen. Though that just might be our destiny at this point.

The way I rate things right now is how this turns out and the risk is acceleration of the Republican take over of our country sooner with less chance that they'll fail (yes the 3 seconds faster thing ). There is a narrow path though that forestalls things. The Democratic strategy as it stands right now in the face of voting restrictions is to outorganize the opposition. That will be challenging if voter enthusiasm has been smashed to bits by Manchin and Sinema. They have to believe you can get their priorities achieved. So we have a few paths ahead:

If the bill collapses and neither bill passes, the political damage will be monstrous. The Republicans will sweep in both chambers probably.

If they pass only the bipartisan bill, it'll still be significant damage. They'll probably lose the House but the Senate will be up for grabs.

If they pass both the bipartisan bill and a bill that provides elder/pre-K support it'll probably turn out ok. Still probably lose the House but the Senate is definitely defendable.

If they can pass the bipartisan bill and something near the $3.5T that allows them to go into the mid-terms advertising a big agenda they might save the House. Maybe. I think they likely lose the House in all other scenarios. That's just the normal math much less the math with a President who is this unpopular this early.

[malchior]

So at the last minute he asks for the Hyde amendment to be put in? Ya we're fucked.

Manchin keeps adding in things. Apparently he also threw means testing in at some point. He just keeps adding in poison pills. That's why calling it a negotiation is a stretch. The guy's game is pretty transparent. It's pure tax defense. Though he is even making noise about some tax code tweaks as a standalone thing (eating up the reconciliation token for the year in the process). It's hard to tell if that is serious or a distraction.

[Octavious]

Obama rescued the country from a smoking crater and the Dems still got murdered in the midterms. I think we're f'd no matter what happens.

[malchior]

If you aren't keeping an eye on it (and I know many aren't) this has gotten chaotic. Apparently they've hit yet another self-appointed "deadline" without an agreement. They are twisting arms at the moment but it seems to be going nowhere. Bernie Sanders is basically saying out loud that the whole process is a shit show.

[Smoove_B]

I wouldn't say I'm a fan of Bernie, but when he's right about something, he's definitely spot-on with his commentary and observations.

[pr0ner]

Justin Amash rails about that on Twitter on a regular basis.

[Zarathud]

Remember when I said the deal would be done in November? It will be December.

Democrats are in a “full on melee.” But…Pelosi is incredible at arm twisting, and relentless on votes like this. It why she’s Speaker even though she’s toxic to moderates — she gets the votes eventually. Not without loud complaints.

Apparently everyone is so busy fighting, President Biden can’t get any traction.

[Zaxxon]

Insert catchphrase here.

[El Guapo]

Remember when I said the deal would be done in November? It will be December.

Democrats are in a “full on melee.” But…Pelosi is incredible at arm twisting, and relentless on votes like this. It why she’s Speaker even though she’s toxic to moderates — she gets the votes eventually. Not without loud complaints.

Apparently everyone is so busy fighting, President Biden can’t get any traction.

I'm mainly worried about Sinema, and secondarily about Manchin. If they'll negotiate in good faith, they'll get something done.

[malchior]

That's the trick. Are they negotiating in good faith? The progressives don't trust them anymore for good reason. Manchin has broken multiple deals this year and moved the goalposts on them. They're sick of it. Sinema is a straight up agent of chaos right now. She is deeply unpopular back home. Especially now with this nonsense. She has been doing all sorts of other corrupt things - one of which is the shady PAC event earlier this week. Another one was the story that came out about her weird summer internship at a winery last summer owned by a hedge fund which is also a political donor to her campaign. Even if it wasn't shady it is hard to even wrap thoughts around the idea that a US Senator took a couple of weeks to step on grapes.

[Zaxxon]

It seems pretty clear that neither is negotiating in good faith, no?

[malchior]

It doesn't look like it but they aren't being transparent about the substance of the discussions. Maybe we're just not seeing it.

As an aside the House moderates look like fools right now. Especially Gottheimer. He was on record saying he was 1000% sure there would be a vote tonight. Despite the progressives saying over and over that they weren't going to fall for Lucy pulling the ball away.

[Drazzil]

This a potentially volatile situation. As usual I think people are very much underestimating the risk levels we are seeing.

Risk levels? For what exactly? To speed the train actively falling off the cliff from intial inertia to terminal velocity? WATCH OUT EVERYBODY!! We're hitting the ground 3 seconds faster, now!

We are barreling towards a failure state but there are possible multiple destinations. I'm worrying about the one where we finally screw up one of these default situations. One political consultancy firm rates it at 20% right now. That doesn't make sense when it isn't a real issue. It is completely made up. Edit: Apparently they just kicked the can 2 months down the road to December. We're so very, very serious.

Another bad scenario is that the left splinters in the face of the obvious corrupt, plutocrats and starts purifying like the right did intensifying the political conflict. I can't wait for daily street fights in multiple cities if that starts to happen. Though that just might be our destiny at this point.

The way I rate things right now is how this turns out and the risk is acceleration of the Republican take over of our country sooner with less chance that they'll fail (yes the 3 seconds faster thing ). There is a narrow path though that forestalls things. The Democratic strategy as it stands right now in the face of voting restrictions is to outorganize the opposition. That will be challenging if voter enthusiasm has been smashed to bits by Manchin and Sinema. They have to believe you can get their priorities achieved. So we have a few paths ahead:

Voter enthusiasm is smashed. The Democrats smashed it. Every election cycle the Democrats promise they are gonna get shit done, then the Democrats don't fight and let the R's do whatever they want because they want to be the "adults in the room" Throwing up excuse by excuse like "bipartisanship" and "the senate parliamentarian" and "not having the votes" and Biden's stupid, selfish, craven refusal to get rid of the filibuster. If they haven't already made a deal with the Republicans they certainly behave like they have.

We *NEED* an organized, purified left that refuses to quail in the face of fascism and the right. The disorganized appeasenik democrats are constantly giving away the farm and allowing the right to govern even in the majority.

[Zarathud]

Like Alexander Hamilton, the progressives don’t have the votes.

[Skinypupy]

[malchior]

Like Alexander Hamilton, the progressives don’t have the votes.

It seems like it's the other way around. The centrists for once don't have the votes.

[Smoove_B]

It seems pretty clear that neither is negotiating in good faith, no?

I think this sums it up:

"We haven't been negotiating yet in good faith," Manchin said about the ongoing negotiations. "All we need to do is pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and sit down and start negotiating in good faith. That's it."

Manchin said he "never heard of" a deal that the two bills would be passed together. "Why do you think we worked so hard to separate them?"

[Defiant]

Honestly, aside from what sounds like pulling stuff out at the last minute, Manchin doesn't annoy me - Given that he is very moderate (or even somewhat conservative), and comes from a deep, deep red state, his stances don't seem crazy and should have been baked in. It's not surprising that a pro-life Senator with lots of leverage would push for the hyde amendment (I'm just surprised that no one's raised it until now).

Sinema, on the other hand, just seems to be a crazy contrarian. I don't know what she wants other than attention.

[Kraken]

Remember when I said the deal would be done in November? It will be December.

Democrats are in a “full on melee.” But…Pelosi is incredible at arm twisting, and relentless on votes like this. It why she’s Speaker even though she’s toxic to moderates — she gets the votes eventually. Not without loud complaints.

Apparently everyone is so busy fighting, President Biden can’t get any traction.

Pelosi said that this will be the capstone of her career. She will get *something* done, and I trust that it will be the maximum that's politically possible with the Congress we've got. Reading between the lines also kind of implies that she might be thinking of stepping aside after '22.

[El Guapo]

That's the trick. Are they negotiating in good faith? The progressives don't trust them anymore for good reason. Manchin has broken multiple deals this year and moved the goalposts on them. They're sick of it. Sinema is a straight up agent of chaos right now. She is deeply unpopular back home. Especially now with this nonsense. She has been doing all sorts of other corrupt things - one of which is the shady PAC event earlier this week. Another one was the story that came out about her weird summer internship at a winery last summer owned by a hedge fund which is also a political donor to her campaign. Even if it wasn't shady it is hard to even wrap thoughts around the idea that a US Senator took a couple of weeks to step on grapes.

Yeah, this is the rub. Do both Sinema and Manchin both want a deal, or are they just intending to kill the reconciliation bill (or gut it to 5% of its current form or something)? If the former, then something should get done. If the latter...then we're fucked.

[malchior]

If the former, then something should get done. If the latter...then we're fucked.

This is the dilemma boiled down. The Progressives are taking blasts from the very serious people but they've realized that at some point that capitulation to these dirty tricks by Manchin types just leads to more status quo. What's changed is their size though. They are 10% of the House by some accounts. More meaningfully that means they are 20% of the Democratic base and they are super motivated. Biden is faced with a choice that he seems to be reckoning. He can only ignore them at the peril of starting a civil war in their base.

[malchior]

Meanwhile...

[RunningMn9]

I feel like I didn't have to read a single post of this thread. Based on the thread title, the answer is obviously going to be yes.

[malchior]

Like her or not - this is a clear position.

[Blackhawk]

I feel like I didn't have to read a single post of this thread. Based on the thread title, the answer is obviously going to be yes.

Ha, I had just decided to post almost the same comment. Scooped again.

[RunningMn9]

I feel like I didn't have to read a single post of this thread. Based on the thread title, the answer is obviously going to be yes.

Ha, I had just decided to post almost the same comment. Scooped again.

I gave you plenty of time on my 4-5 month hiatus.

[stimpy]

Meanwhile...

Damn I love David Cross......

[malchior]

As an aside the House moderates look like fools right now. Especially Gottheimer. He was on record saying he was 1000% sure there would be a vote tonight. Despite the progressives saying over and over that they weren't going to fall for Lucy pulling the ball away.

Gottheimer is embarrassed and lashed out. How mature and serious he is.

[RunningMn9]

I wonder if he knows that the far left progressive side were elected to do a job too?

[malchior]

Very seldom do I mostly agree with David Brooks but he nails it here. I don't think all these programs are necessarily the right ones as Brooks does. My interest is to see if we can make strides to actually address the problems in front of us. If the Democrats do fail, I expect we'll be looking at some extremely bad scenarios over the next 2-4 years. On a typically dour note, even if they succeed they've squandered most of 2021 on this nonsense. This leaves them a narrower path to shoring up their dim prospect in the mid-terms. They'll need to hustle to roll out the spending as quickly as possible - even if somewhat inefficiently -- to make sure people feel the impact.

This Is Why We Need to Spend $4 Trillion

I’ve spent the past few weeks in a controlled fury — and I’m not normally a fury kind of guy. Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi and others are trying to pass arguably the most consequential legislative package in a generation, and what did I sense in my recent travels across five states? The same thing I sense in my social media feed and on the various media most-viewed lists.

Indifference.

Have we given up on the idea that policy can change history? Have we lost faith in our ability to reverse, or even be alarmed by, national decline? More and more I hear people accepting the idea that America is not as energetic and youthful as it used to be.

I can practically hear the spirits of our ancestors crying out — the ones who had a core faith that this would forever be the greatest nation on the planet, the New Jerusalem, the last best hope of earth.

My ancestors were aspiring immigrants and understood where the beating heart of the nation resided: with the working class and the middle class, the ones depicted by Willa Cather, James Agee and Ralph Ellison or in “The Honeymooners,” “The Best Years of Our Lives” and “On the Waterfront.” There was a time when the phrase “the common man” was a source of pride and a high compliment.

Over the past few decades there has been a redistribution of dignity — upward. From Reagan through Romney, the Republicans valorized entrepreneurs, C.E.O.s and Wall Street. The Democratic Party became dominated by people in the creative class, who attended competitive colleges, moved to affluent metro areas, married each other and ladled advantages onto their kids so they could leap even farther ahead.

There was a bipartisan embrace of a culture of individualism, which opens up a lot of space for people with resources and social support but means loneliness and abandonment for people without. Four years of college became the definition of the good life, which left roughly two-thirds of the country out.

And so came the crisis that Biden was elected to address — the poisonous combination of elite insularity and vicious populist resentment.

Read again Robert Kagan’s foreboding Washington Post essay on how close we are to a democratic disaster. He’s talking about a group of people so enraged by a lack of respect that they are willing to risk death by Covid if they get to stick a middle finger in the air against those who they think look down on them. They are willing to torch our institutions because they are so resentful against the people who run them.

The Democratic spending bills are economic packages that serve moral and cultural purposes. They should be measured by their cultural impact, not merely by some wonky analysis. In real, tangible ways, they would redistribute dignity back downward. They would support hundreds of thousands of jobs for home health care workers, child care workers, construction workers, metal workers, supply chain workers. They would ease the indignity millions of parents face having to raise their children in poverty.

Look at the list of states that, according to a recent analysis of White House estimates by CNBC, could be among those getting the most money per capita from the infrastructure bill. A lot of them are places where Trumpian resentment is burning hot: Alaska, Wyoming, Montana, North and South Dakota.

Biden had it exactly right when he told a La Crosse, Wis., audience, “The jobs that are going to be created here — largely, it’s going to be those for blue-collar workers, the majority of whom will not have to have a college degree to have those jobs.”

In normal times I’d argue that many of the programs in these packages may be ineffective. I’m a lot more worried about debt than progressives seem to be. But we’re a nation enduring a national rupture, and the most violent parts of it may still be yet to come.

These packages say to the struggling parents and the warehouse workers: I see you. Your work has dignity. You are paving your way. You are at the center of our national vision.

...

But we can make it clear that we value people’s choices. For years, there was almost an officially approved life: Get a B.A., move to those places where capital and jobs are congregating, even if it means leaving your community, roots and extended family.

Those were not desired or realistic options for millions of people. These packages, on the other hand, say: We support the choices you have made, in the places where you have chosen to live.

[Carpet_pissr]

Spotted the problem as soon as I read it:
“ I can practically hear the spirits of our ancestors crying out — the ones who had a core faith that this would forever be the greatest nation on the planet.”

Maybe that’s a throwaway line, but I kinda think not. I bet the author wrote that without thinking TOO hard about, or the implications. As if the idea were a given, no big deal, "we all know what I'm talking about, amirite?" Doesn't even have to "wink" at the reader bc he knows that WE know what he's talking about, bc I think it's ingrained in us.

Did our ancestors REALLY believe that our nation would be some kind of be-all, end-all ‘solution’ to the world’s problems…forever (if ever)?

He’s almost literally saying that, and I really think that’s a problem that has contributed in no small part to our current angst, or train falling off the cliff depending on where you are on our current status. The whole MAGA thing for one...the mere perception that we are not "NUMBER ONE!!!" at EVERYthing in the world is unacceptable to many Americans. Doesn't even matter if it's true or not. If they FEEL that we/they are not ALWAYS WINNING, then we've lost, and that is unaccetpable. If it takes burning the whole country down - WHATEVER it takes, to get back to where we once were, so be it (I think there is some similarity here with the Brexiters). It's the Ricky Bobby's Dad conundrum (feel free to use that). RBDC. "If you ain't first, YER LAST!!"

The idea that we were/are/SHOULD BE ‘Tha Greatest of All Time!’(TM) has put an artificial (and negative IMO) pressure on us. Yes, it has absolutely pushed us to actually be great in many areas, but I think we tend to downplay the truly awful downsides that mentality also has on a (national) psyche.

Maybe like with individuals, those who are so pushed and pressured to HAVE to ALWAYS be The Best…well, when shit starts to fall apart, as it does sometimes (always, eventually?), it has an outsized negative impact.

[malchior]

The idea that we were/are ‘Tha Greatest if All Time!’(TM) has put an artificial (and negative IMO) pressure on us. Yes, it has absolutely pushed us to actually be great in many areas, but I think we tend to downplay the truly awful downsides that mentality also has on a (national) psyche.

Maybe like with individuals, those who are so pushed and pressured to HAVE to ALWAYS be The Best…well, when shit starts to fall apart, as it does sometimes (always, eventually?), it has an outsized negative impact.

I totally agree. There is this aspect. Another aspect is that we refuse to hear how we are just bad at things. Take healthcare. Our system is arguably the worst in the advanced economies. Definitely compared to all peers in the G7. Some metrics have us underperforming significantly. I know people won't agree but there is just too much evidence. The push back is predictable to this reality. People will fight that idea (to the death sometimes) to keep it the same way because we are the best so our healthcare system must be the best.

[Carpet_pissr]

The idea that we were/are ‘Tha Greatest if All Time!’(TM) has put an artificial (and negative IMO) pressure on us. Yes, it has absolutely pushed us to actually be great in many areas, but I think we tend to downplay the truly awful downsides that mentality also has on a (national) psyche.

Maybe like with individuals, those who are so pushed and pressured to HAVE to ALWAYS be The Best…well, when shit starts to fall apart, as it does sometimes (always, eventually?), it has an outsized negative impact.

I totally agree. There is this aspect. Another aspect is that we refuse to hear how we are just bad at things. Take healthcare. Our system is arguably the worst in the advanced economies. Definitely compared to all peers in the G7. Some metrics have us underperforming significantly. I know people won't agree but there is just too much evidence. The push back is predictable to this reality. People will fight that idea (to the death sometimes) to keep it the same way because we are the best so our healthcare system must be the best.

Yes. We have become so uber-patriotic/nationalistic, whatever you want to call it, that it's turned into a hubris that blinds us. Ironically, that is also probably one of the main reasons that KEEPS us from being "tha' Greatest!"

If you ONLY celebrate your greatness, while ignoring your weaknesses, that's a recipe for disaster. Both are important, though it sounds like I am being overly negative. We lack a balance in this regard...we lack a self-awareness at the national level, that is required to grow and improve. If your overall idea is that you are ALREADY the best and greatest, then any indication that there is still work to be done is seen as some kind of weakness, or even treachery.

I strongly believe that is the core issue at our current divisiveness. You have half the country waving the flag, screaming "we're number one!", and getting belligerent with people who still think we have a lot of work to do. It's a "world view" difference which I think is why we are toast in a lot of ways, at least in the short to medium term: that kind of macro view of how the world is or should be is not typically easy to change, or quick to change. I'm in the latter group, obviously, but at least I recognize the importance of some of the qualities and outlooks in the former group. It's a balancing act that we performed pretty damn well for a long time, but I think the plates have started to fall.

[malchior]

I've just been catching up on the stories today. Sinema got chased into a bathroom. Manchin dug in. The SNL cold open nailed most of the dynamic perfectly as the Democrats are broadcasting it to the world. True or not the sketch captures what people see -- their complete political negligence on full display. The "two sides" in the Democratic caucus are clearly just staring each other down and the press is just all over them. It is becoming pretty clear that the entire political system is in a negative feedback loop where everyone thinks they benefit if the system fails. So it probably will.

[malchior]

[malchior]

There has been an "interesting" side effect seen in all these maneuvers. There was a major blow up between the House GOP leadership and the US Chamber of Commerce over its anti-reconciliation strategy. The Chamber was exerting pressure to pass the bipartisan bill and somehow overstepped. This led to the House GOP kicking the Chamber off its strategy calls. And then the Chamber capitulated to MAGA and realigned against the bipartisan infrastructure bill in line with the House GOP. At the same time moderate GOP members in the House publicly said they would no longer vote for the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Not a good sign for times to come. The Chamber was for some time a moderating force but it seems that money has seen the inevitability of what is to come.

[Zarathud]

Yet another organization that knows better decides to surrender to Trumpism.

[malchior]

Yet another organization that knows better decides to surrender to Trumpism.

It seems the writing is on the wall and there is little we can collectively do about it.

[Zaxxon]

moderate GOP members

Not a thing. We need a better term, as moderate can no longer refer to any GOP members.