Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

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Little Raven
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by Little Raven »

Victoria Raverna wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:05 pmUS has no friends, too?
No, Trump had no friends. (for much the same reasons that China has none) But Trump is gone, and the US image has rebounded.
During the past two decades, presidential transitions have had a major impact on overall attitudes toward the U.S. When Barack Obama took office in 2009, ratings improved in many nations compared with where they had been during George W. Bush’s administration, and when Trump entered the White House in 2017, ratings declined sharply. This year, U.S. favorability is up again: Whereas a median of just 34% across 12 nations had a favorable overall opinion of the U.S. last year, a median of 62% now hold this view.

In France, for example, just 31% expressed a positive opinion of the U.S. last year, matching the poor ratings from March 2003, at the height of U.S.-France tensions over the Iraq War. This year, 65% see the U.S. positively, approaching the high ratings that characterized the Obama era. Improvements of 25 percentage points or more are also found in Germany, Japan, Italy, the Netherlands and Canada.
Perhaps most tellingly, the countries that share borders with the US both have fairly positive views of the United States, while all of China's neighbors appear to actively hate her. Japan is talking about transitioning to a nuclear power in order to counter Chinese influence. Taiwan spends billions of dollars in defense against China every year. Australia has decided she needs nuclear submarines in order to counter Chinese aggression. Indian and Chinese troops regularly brawl on their shared border. Nothing remotely comparable exists with Canada or Mexico.
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Little Raven
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by Little Raven »

El Guapo wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:56 pmKind of seems like it's not *that* much more than that, though.
Yes and no.

Yes in the sense that French pride is very, VERY wounded. France has been a world power since the days of Charlemagne, and as far as they're concerned, they still are. In their defense, for the last 70 years, the world has generally played along with that idea. But lately, that's been changing. France has found itself humiliated several times recently...Lebanon thumbed their noses at them back in March, and the question of whether or not France is in decline arises constantly in the French press. To have the United States choose Great Britain (who is supposed to be a disgraced shell of country due to Brexit) over France is an insult of almost unthinkable degree. And while it's tempting to laugh at the French and tell them to get over it, for guys like Macron, this is a real problem. France has it's own right wing populists who promote their own version of "Make France Great Again," and things like this empower them.

No in the sense that Mal is right about the rest of Europe sharing French concern, although Germany and Italy are not particularly concerned with French pride. What DOES concern them is what this move clearly signals - after 70 years, the US is finally shifting the focus of its attention away from Europe and on to the Pacific. This is a sea change of monumental importance - and is much larger than any individual President. Nobody is certain what exactly this move means for Europe, but I suspect most European governments are not thrilled. At minimum, it probably means that they either need to start getting much more open to Russian demands or they need to start spending a lot more in their own defense - and both of those options are unappealing.
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malchior
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by malchior »

Little Raven wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:33 pmTo have the United States choose Great Britain (who is supposed to be a disgraced shell of country due to Brexit) over France is an insult of almost unthinkable degree.
I think the French are used to this by now. We've been far cozier with the UK since...the Suez crisis at least.
No in the sense that Mal is right about the rest of Europe sharing French concern, although Germany and Italy are not particularly concerned with French pride. What DOES concern them is what this move clearly signals - after 70 years, the US is finally shifting the focus of its attention away from Europe and on to the Pacific.
This is part of the issue. The other part is we keep treating them with straight up disrespect. It is hard to understand what is going on because it doesn't make sense. Trump made a mess of things. Biden started off strong but has begun to dig the hole deeper. And it is all coalition management stuff. It's sort of baffling how we've stopped doing the basics and that is what points me to State department rot. We'll see how much lasting damage there is but Biden has not been great for repairing the relationship with the EU. He seems to be operating under the pre-Trump assumptions that sometimes we'll just have to be a bit rough and they'll forgive us. Trump changed that math and unfortunately Biden apparently doesn't understand that.
This is a sea change of monumental importance - and is much larger than any individual President.
That's the problem. We are acting crazy. We have a President who tells them to go fuck themselves, and then next guy is like forgive us our good friends but treats them like poorly and undermines them in public. We're once again doing all sorts of unserious things like fight over stupid mechanisms that threaten the world economic system. Some of this is normalized but you have to think there are countries both sick of this recklessness and nervous that we'll tip toe into some all encompassing crisis even accidentally.
Nobody is certain what exactly this move means for Europe, but I suspect most European governments are not thrilled. At minimum, it probably means that they either need to start getting much more open to Russian demands or they need to start spending a lot more in their own defense - and both of those options are unappealing.
Indeed. They are definitely not happy with us because of the implied security balance changes. It isn't like Russia is getting friendlier. China is a problem but the idea we should take our eyes off that issue and hand off Russia to the EU is a non-starter. We need the EU. The EU needs us. The overhanging problem over everything is that the American political class is increasingly weak and incompetent. On top our system is politically unstable. Strongly related I might add to each other. I'm sure they're beyond nervous because as things stand we're a threat to world security right now. If/as we get more unstable who knows what bad actors will try to take advantage of it and that increases all sorts of risks for the world.
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

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“If/as we get more unstable who knows what bad actors will try to take advantage of it “

If?! Try?! LOL. This has already been shown to have happened. It’s only the degree of impact that’s unknown, but it wasn’t insignificant.
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Little Raven
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

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malchior wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:25 pmIt is hard to understand what is going on because it doesn't make sense.
As usual, my take is somewhat more optimistic than yours. I think everything makes perfect sense, given the new assumptions I suspect are in play.

We're not treating Europe with "straight up disrespect." Biden had a very cordial phone call with Macron right after this event came out. We're not abandoning the EU to the Russians, we haven't stopped doing the basics, and we're not acting crazy.

We've just changed one of the core variables of our diplomacy. Since the end of WW II, our focus has been Europe. So whenever European interests and another foreign interest clashed, Europe would win. Frankly, that approach made a lot of sense for a very long time - Europe was the place both World Wars started, after all, and it was the prize the USSR was after.

But the world has changed. And now its becoming obvious that our foreign policy is changing as well. We didn't just hang Europe out to dry for no reason - we had two competing interests, and the Pacific interest won out. That is a huge shakeup for the established world order, but I don't think its irrational. Sometimes, you can't make everyone happy, so you pick the most important client and make THEM happy. This time, that was Australia. Sorry, France.

This will be a big adjustment for the EU, but if it forces the EU to start behaving more like the continent spanning government it clearly aspires to be, maybe it will ultimately be a healthy one.
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malchior
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

Post by malchior »

Little Raven wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 5:56 pmWe're not treating Europe with "straight up disrespect." Biden had a very cordial phone call with Macron right after this event came out. We're not abandoning the EU to the Russians, we haven't stopped doing the basics, and we're not acting crazy.
Even Biden was caught off-guard by this blow up. This isn't a pessimistic outlook. The facts are clear - we fucked up - again. Biden had to apologize. That wasn't a 'cordial discussion'. It was our President calling the French President hat in hand and saying we screwed up. And everyone with a clue knows it. The CW is that this seriously weakened Biden's soft power and puts his administration and his personal judgement in question. This was a 'critical miss' on a diplomacy check to say the least.

The article also points a finger at some of what we speculated upthread that State is an issue. It was trashed by Trump's cronies and the GOP has been slow rolling nominees. So what the article theorizes is that the National Security Council made a call without getting a good read from the diplomatic corps about what the impact would be. That's what I mean by acting crazy. We are sloppy. We make obvious mistakes. And we aren't coordinating within our own government. We are making major decisions in a ham-fisted, brutish way, which led to the Trump comparison. Again Biden was supposed to be the medicine. Instead, he is showing that we're still a hot mess. And our partners in the EU have seen it. We know this because they are saying it out loud to the press.
After days of angry phone calls and public statements from the French, Macron took the extraordinary step of recalling the French ambassador to the US for the first time in modern history. Biden was receiving regular briefings on the fallout by national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and by Sunday the President told his advisers he wanted to speak with Macron, believing a direct conversation could help smooth things over.
The 30-minute call resulted in Biden essentially having to issue a mea culpa to Macron -- a move one White House official acknowledged was not ideal.
The debacle is the latest in a series of foreign policy crises that have erupted over the past several weeks for Biden, ones that both foreign diplomats and US officials have said were completely avoidable. The gaffes have left sources inside and outside the administration frustrated and perplexed, with some even comparing the lapses to what they'd expect from former President Trump.

...

These diplomats say there is intense interest in their capitals as to why this is happening, given the fact that Biden and many of his senior officials served in the Obama administration, an experience that should have left them seasoned enough to communicate more clearly, plan more carefully and execute more effectively. But recently, there have been too many surprises, the biggest being the rapid fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban. The chaotic and deadly withdrawal was also capped by a major tragedy when a US drone strike mistakenly targeted an Afghan NGO worker and killed 10 civilians.
Addressing the nation last month, Biden said his administration had not expected Kabul to fall so quickly. "We were clear-eyed about the risks. We planned for every contingency. But I always promised the American people I would be straight with you. The truth is, this did unfold more quickly than we had anticipated."

One administration official said that despite the criticism around the Afghanistan withdrawal, the administration kept NATO allies abreast of its plans for the withdrawal.

...

Some sources pointed to failures in coordination and communication between the National Security Council and the State Department, which is usually the main point of contact for foreign partners. But others said that they believe a key problem has been the lack of Senate-confirmed ambassadors and State Department officials who could serve as a check on the hugely powerful NSC inside the White House.
Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said during a hearing this week that nearly 80 nominations are still on hold.

"The slow pace and many obstacles to moving nominees is unacceptable," he said. "It's dangerous. We're less safe when our national security agencies are so short staffed. We have to fix this problem."

One diplomat said that overseas, too, there is a perception that with the agonizingly slow pace of Senate confirmations of State Department officials, some foreign policy decision-making is more concentrated in the NSC. A source close to the White House echoed that assessment, noting that the NSC has tended to "micromanage" important national security decisions primarily because there are simply "not enough people in their chairs."

...

In any case, multiple diplomats said that events in Afghanistan -- where the Biden administration pulled out hastily from Bagram Air Base, giving allies little or no warning -- and the AUUKUS debacle have badly eroded trust in the US. The chaotic rush of the Afghanistan withdrawal in particular left US allies scrambling to ensure the safety of their own citizens and feeling deeply disadvantaged by the seemingly poor US planning.

While the Biden administration received a warm welcome from international partners during its first few months, foreign diplomats are now second-guessing their assumption that the Biden administration will be tremendously better than the Trump administration across the board, multiple European diplomats told CNN.

There is a real concern, for example, following the AUKUS debacle, that the US might step in and steal military deals from Europe, one diplomat said. (The EU is the second largest arms trader in the world after the US, according to a September 2020 statement by the European Parliament.)
The lapses have been all the more shocking, the diplomats say, because the Biden administration was seen as more competent and sympathetic than the Trump administration.

"It's not the decision-making style we expected," one diplomat said.
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El Guapo
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

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Sort of strikes me that the more optimistic Little Raven view and the pessimistic malchior view aren't really in tension factually. Seems like this was driven in large part by the need to pivot more focus to Asia, and that as a result the views / feelings of Australia matter more in some respects than the views of France and other parts of Europe. Part of this is the result of that being made clear and sinking in.

But that at the same time it's almost certainly true that this could have been executed better with regards to France and Europe, and that part of the harm here is accordingly a bit of a self-own. How much better is hard to say exactly, but that this may have been directed mainly by non-diplomats with insufficient input from diplomats is not great, and it's largely a result of the crippling of the State Department.
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malchior
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

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The real difference is in outlook. There was time during Trump that we said...well we'll bounce back with the next guy. And you'll see that sentiment in the CNN article. That window is closing now. IMO Biden has got to get a handle on his administration. It isn't going well. Polling in the low 40s in your first year is sorry to say very Trump-y. And he probably has one more year without at least one chamber of Congress all over him.

Edit: Is that driven by foreign policy? Maybe only a little but it is a factor in the stink of failure hanging over the guy right now. He needs to get some wins -- desperately.
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Little Raven
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Re: Biden is just the same as Trump...minus the Tweets.

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Macron tells Europe to stop being naive.
France was incensed earlier this month to find out that Australia had signed a deal with the United States and Britain for nuclear-powered submarine technology under a new AUKUS security partnership, in the process abandoning a 2016 deal in which Canberra had agreed to buy French diesel-powered submarines.

The incident caused much soul-searching in Paris over its traditional alliances. Speaking for the first time in public on the issue, Macron on Tuesday seized the opportunity to urge more European autonomy as Washington increasingly reorientates its interests towards China and the Indo-Pacific.

“The Europeans must stop being naive. When we are under pressure from powers, which at times harden (their stance), we need to react and show that we have the power and capacity to defend ourselves. Not escalating things, but protecting ourselves,” Macron said.

But Australia's decision will not change France's own strategy in the Indo-Pacific region, he said Tuesday. Macron added that the cancellation would have a relatively limited impact on France, concerning only a few hundred jobs.
I don't disagree with Macron here. The US is clearly changing focus, and that process will almost certainly continue once Biden is gone. We won't just abandon Europe, but France and Germany will have to pick up more of the slack.
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