Prepare for a wonderful spring.

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Little Raven
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Prepare for a wonderful spring.

Post by Little Raven »

Krugman inserts a note of optimism.
That was the summer of our discontent. Early this year many of us were expecting to see dramatic improvements in the quality of our lives. Miraculous vaccines offered the hope of a quick end to the pandemic and a return to normal life. The return to normality would, we hoped, also set the stage for a rapid economic rebound. When President Biden predicted a “summer of joy,” that didn’t seem unreasonable.

But it was not to be. The vaccination drive, after early successes, stalled in the face of widespread resistance, intensified by politically motivated misinformation and disinformation; and in an inadequately vaccinated nation, the Delta variant led to a deadly third wave of infections. While job growth has been fast by historical standards, the economy has been crimped both by the persistence of Covid-19 and by snarled supply chains. And a surge in homicides has revived some of the old dystopian fears of social breakdown.

The result has been widespread frustration, with many people predicting that things will stay bad or get worse in the months ahead.

But what if the current gloom is overdone? ... there’s a good case that in the quite near future we’ll see substantial progress against the three C’s: Covid, containers (i.e., supply-chain issues) and crime. We didn’t get our summer of joy, but we might be heading for a spring of relief.

...

Start with the state of the pandemic. At this point the Delta wave is clearly receding in the United States. Furthermore, there are reasons to hope that this won’t be another false dawn, because the federal government and a growing number of private employers have been getting serious about requiring that workers be vaccinated.

...

What about supply-chain problems? I think it’s fair to say that almost nobody predicted the Great Snarl — the logistical mess that has scores of container ships steaming back and forth off California waiting for a place to dock, automakers unable to meet demand because of a shortage of semiconductor chips, and more. But two of the main factors behind this mess seem to be abating.

First, the easing pandemic should directly help mitigate supply issues, because at least some disruptions have been caused by Covid-related shutdowns and the inability or unwillingness of some workers to engage in risky activities. As the rate of new cases falls, such disruptions should become rarer.

...

Christmas gifts may still be a bit hard to come by, but it would be surprising if the stress doesn’t ease substantially by early next year.

...

Finally, crime. There was a sharp rise in homicides last year, although one that still left murder rates lower than they had been in the 1990s. But did the spike in murders herald a return to the bad old days, or was it a pandemic-related aberration?

Well, data from New York, at least, suggest that 2020 wasn’t the start of a trend. Homicides so far this year have run below their rate in the corresponding period of last year; over the past four weeks they were down 14 percent from a year previous.

All in all, there’s a pretty good case that we’ll all be feeling a lot better about life early next year than we are now.
Let's hope Krugman is on the ball and Friedman has horribly miscalled it.
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Re: Prepare for a wonderful spring.

Post by Kraken »

The coronavirus has a stellar record of making fools of forecasters. I hope Delta will prove to be its last hurrah, but it's not hard to imagine a new variant that can squeak past our current phalanx of vaccines and send us scrambling for new formulations. It does all come down to covid.
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Re: Prepare for a wonderful spring.

Post by dbt1949 »

I thought this last year. Not anymore.
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LordMortis
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Re: Prepare for a wonderful spring.

Post by LordMortis »

Kraken wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:45 pm The coronavirus has a stellar record of making fools of forecasters. I hope Delta will prove to be its last hurrah, but it's not hard to imagine a new variant that can squeak past our current phalanx of vaccines and send us scrambling for new formulations. It does all come down to covid.
Historically my state sees a rise in spread and death before the nation sees a rise. We're seeing a rise after a good receding.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/michigan/

School, cold weather, holidays.

There's no reason to believe that spring won't bring relief but I have zero reason to believe the worst is behind us. Of course, I still have loved ones who refuse vaccination, so my glasses are tinted in something other than rose.
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Re: Prepare for a wonderful spring.

Post by LawBeefaroni »

Crime is rampant in my neck of the woods. Or should I say it's spreading. Were getting gang shootouts, car jackings, and B&E where it used to be mostly porch pirates and muggings.

So much so that people are moving out. If they aren't moving out they are spending thousands on security camera systems and asking how to go about buying a gun legally.

Winter should put a damper on much of the crime, as it always does but Spring gonna be bad, IMO.
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Re: Prepare for a wonderful spring.

Post by Kraken »

LordMortis wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 8:39 am
Kraken wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 11:45 pm The coronavirus has a stellar record of making fools of forecasters. I hope Delta will prove to be its last hurrah, but it's not hard to imagine a new variant that can squeak past our current phalanx of vaccines and send us scrambling for new formulations. It does all come down to covid.
Historically my state sees a rise in spread and death before the nation sees a rise. We're seeing a rise after a good receding.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/michigan/

School, cold weather, holidays.

There's no reason to believe that spring won't bring relief but I have zero reason to believe the worst is behind us. Of course, I still have loved ones who refuse vaccination, so my glasses are tinted in something other than rose.
Mass. in on the down slope right now after a minor Delta spike, but I fully expect that to change after Halloween and especially Thanksgiving. On the plus side, as the OP points out, vaccine mandates are starting to take hold and young children are about to join the party, so hospitalizations and deaths might not track the inevitable hump in cases. 'Course, I'm in the second-most-vaxxed state, so my glasses are rosier than yours.
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YellowKing
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Re: Prepare for a wonderful spring.

Post by YellowKing »

Meh, I side with Krugman here. There's no real impetus for things to get *worse* as it stands right now. Even if we did nothing, pandemics wane, and we're in far better shape now than we were in 2020.

Much of 2021 was essentially wasted on betting that people would do the right thing. That didn't pan out, so we started firing people and passing mandates. If we get another surge, the response, if anything, is going to be even tighter restrictions.

Things are moving in the right direction. Not as quickly as everyone hoped, but we're not taking steps backwards.
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Re: Prepare for a wonderful spring.

Post by LawBeefaroni »

YellowKing wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:41 am Meh, I side with Krugman here. There's no real impetus for things to get *worse* as it stands right now. Even if we did nothing, pandemics wane, and we're in far better shape now than we were in 2020.

Much of 2021 was essentially wasted on betting that people would do the right thing. That didn't pan out, so we started firing people and passing mandates. If we get another surge, the response, if anything, is going to be even tighter restrictions.

Things are moving in the right direction. Not as quickly as everyone hoped, but we're not taking steps backwards.
So sayeth half of the country. The other half sees rising oppression and loss of "freedom". Even if we gain ground on the COVID front, we'll have to deal with the powderkeg it lit.
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Re: Prepare for a wonderful spring.

Post by noxiousdog »

Ironically, I suspect he's right, but wow. what a shocker that going into mid-terms Krugman thinks that Democratic leadership will make everything better.
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LordMortis
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Re: Prepare for a wonderful spring.

Post by LordMortis »

LawBeefaroni wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 12:01 pm So sayeth half of the country. The other half sees rising oppression and loss of "freedom". Even if we gain ground on the COVID front, we'll have to deal with the powderkeg it lit.
And them taking what is ours.
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LordMortis
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Re: Prepare for a wonderful spring.

Post by LordMortis »

YellowKing wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 11:41 am Meh, I side with Krugman here. There's no real impetus for things to get *worse* as it stands right now. Even if we did nothing...
By your command...




Also NC is not in better shape now than it was in 2020 by infection and death toll, YOY. We're just learning to live with death and hospitalizations. Even in decline you have twice as many weekly reported infections and deaths as you did coming into October last year.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -carolina/

Still, I concur it should be better in spring. I just don't think it's going to a pretty journey getting there.
Last edited by LordMortis on Fri Oct 08, 2021 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Prepare for a wonderful spring.

Post by Smoove_B »

~57% of Americans are fully vaccinated. There's still plenty of meat fuel to cause disruptions. Not as widespread as in 2020, but potential for a real problem to erupt if it gets into a specific community / population.

I mentioned it in another thread, but there's a weird 6-10 week cycle that's happening with COVID where cases accelerate and then drop down low, alternating on/off. We're currently in the down slope cycle which means we can expect cases to tick up again (nationally) mid to late November or early December, if the pattern holds. This cycle is weird because it seems to be happening irrespective of weather, seasons, vaccinations and masking. The best guess is that it's moving through very specific populations based on behavior, which is an interesting theory but no one really knows. So right now many of my public health peers are waiting and watching to see if the pattern holds.

But yeah, making predictions and planning off them? Nope.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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YellowKing
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Re: Prepare for a wonderful spring.

Post by YellowKing »

NC is still at 70% of eligible adults having at least one shot of vaccine. That's remarkably better than last year. I'm looking at long term, and 70% with some vaccine in them's a hell of a lot better than 0%. And that number will only increase as we get kids vaxxed.

I don't see much point in prophesying doom and gloom, as it's not going to change what's going to happen. We're in the state we're in, so I'd rather look at the hopeful signs than waste time worrying about things beyond my control.
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Re: Prepare for a wonderful spring.

Post by Smoove_B »

YellowKing wrote: Fri Oct 08, 2021 2:49 pm I don't see much point in prophesying doom and gloom, as it's not going to change what's going to happen. We're in the state we're in, so I'd rather look at the hopeful signs than waste time worrying about things beyond my control.
I think what we (if I can speak for an entire profession here on OO) are trying to do is avoid another "mission accomplished" situation like we had in May of this year as cases are currently dropping. I am fully expecting that 30 seconds after vaccinations for 5-11 year olds are announced the pressure to unmask kids in schools is going to increase and having masks completely off the table anywhere in any capacity will be pushed. This would be a terrible path to follow. It's not a doom and gloom situation as much as it is we need to keep doing what we know works - masking, and testing are high on that list and I would hope they're going to continue into next spring and early summer - unless circulating virus levels drop to much, much lower levels - ideally as more and more Americans are vaccinated.
Maybe next year, maybe no go
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LordMortis
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Re: Prepare for a wonderful spring.

Post by LordMortis »

My sense for doom and gloom is my guide for how to behave now. I don't want our collective burnout on COVID response to make us blind to where we are right now. I am completely open that this is my selfishness speaking. This is me trying to protect people I care about even if I can't convince them to protect themselves. This is me telling them and you that though we have this sense of vaccination and herd immunity and even though people are out there having a good time and returning to normal more and more. This is me looking at reports and clearly seeing more people are dying (Twice as many) in early October 2021 than there were dying in early October 2020. The reported infection rate? It's not even close. Then there's thing called Long COVID...

I'm too busy battening down for a miserable winter to prepare for wonderful spring. That wonderful spring will be welcomed in due time.
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