Overlords Investment Conclave [OIC] Recruitment Thread

[LawBeefaroni]

I've been reading *mostly* good things about Zecco, so how do they make money

They probably make money on trades for people over the 10/40 limit, money market balances (unused balances), margins interest, option trading fees ($3.50 + $0.60/contract) , and probably other fees.

[Austin]

I've been reading *mostly* good things about Zecco, so how do they make money

Like The First American Change Bank; volume.

[Crux]

Here's a question: Where does everyone get slightly older financial data on a company? I have an account with Ameritrade, but I can only find, say EPS going back 3-4 years

[Carpet_pissr]

Here's a longer time series on VLO at Zack's. Shows EPS and surprises (whether up or down historically)

I don't think this is premium content, so it should just link directly to page.

Let me know if it doesn't.

http://zacks.com/research/report.php?type=srp&t=VLO

Oops, wrong one, check here: http://zacks.com/research/report.php?type=eps&t=VLO

[Crux]

Here's a longer time series on VLO at Zack's. Shows EPS and surprises (whether up or down historically)

I don't think this is premium content, so it should just link directly to page.

Let me know if it doesn't.

http://zacks.com/research/report.php?type=srp&t=VLO

Oops, wrong one, check here: http://zacks.com/research/report.php?type=eps&t=VLO

Hey carpet. That is useful but it only seems to give me graphs, not numbers.

[LawBeefaroni]

10K filings typically go back 5 years. And you can find a 10K for any year at the SEC site. They have EPS and any other data you could want.

[Crux]

On a side note, what online brokerages are people using these days? I've still got my account with Ameritrade as mentioned above. Trades seem cheap and all, but some of their information is a little less than optimal. I should be able to get EPS data for a stinking company going back more than 2 years without having to look at their 10-k forms online.

[LawBeefaroni]

Morningstar has 10 year historical ratios.

I use Ameritrade and Zecco. Ameritrade is good for RTQs and basic research. I do everything else the old fashioned way.

[Crux]

Morningstar has 10 year historical ratios.

I use Ameritrade and Zecco. Ameritrade is good for RTQs and basic research. I do everything else the old fashioned way.

Beautiful. Thank you!

[Carpet_pissr]

Ameritrade APEX and Izone for me, Scottrade for my wife and mother.

Love the cheap trades of Izone, and love the little extras that come with APEX. Couldn't be happier.

[noxiousdog]

I have an etrade and fidelity account.

[Luca_Brasi]

OK, I’ll start with a quick introduction. I’ve been reading this forum, and Gone Gold before it, for almost a decade. I’ve always been a gamer, but besides the gaming-related stuff, I realize I’ve benefited from these forums in many other ways from reading so many posts on so many different topics – so when I saw this thread I knew I had to contribute. Investing is what I do for a living and hopefully I have some advice that can help some people. If even one person reads this and it changes their strategy and makes them some money, I’ll be tremendously happy.

So this is my investing and personal finance manifesto. It’s long and kinda boring, but there are stock tips at the end!! It may take some time to read, but if it makes you a better investor for the long term, the next few minutes you spend reading it will be hugely valuable. It sounds like some of you are on the right track and doing a good job of investing. Others sound like they are somewhere between casino gambling and giving their money away.

I work for a hedge fund. I spend 12 hours a day reading companies’ 10Ks and research reports and talking to analysts, lawyers and managements. I study a company for at least a week before we even consider taking a position in it. Professionals have huge advantages over individual investors – time, expertise and access to market data. It is extremely difficult to compete against the pros and do better than them. You could always invest with them in a mutual fund. The problem is that almost all actively managed mutual funds suck.

Real investing is hard work and relatively boring. You don’t end up owning exciting stocks like Apple and Google and biotechs that might double in a year. But you will end up with a huge pile of money at the end. And that’s all that matters.

Investing correctly is very complicated. Most investing books and the media (CNN, CNBC, business articles and magazines) are worthless and will steer you wrong. Most individual investors are lazy and greedy. They put very little time or work into their investments and instead chase investing fads and recent strong performance. Chasing strong performance mostly results in buying something at too high a price.

Most investment articles/books are worthless. Actually less that worthless, following their advice will lead you to lose money. I’ve probably read about 100 investment books. If you want to really educated yourself, the best are Magic Formula by Joel Greenblatt and The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham. If you’re really serious you can check out Contrarian Investment Strategies by David Dreman. Peter Lynch’s books are good too.

The collected finance wisdom of academics and practitioners has taught us a few lessons over the past 50 years (actually surprisingly few). These lessons are based in data analysis and statistics, not market sentiment, so they are facts, not someone’s advice. These are: the stock market is by far the best way to build wealth over the long term and less risky than you think over longer time horizons, diversification works but you need less of it than you think, almost no one can time the market’s ups and downs, the stock market is fairly efficient at setting prices but not totally so, technical analysis is worthless, the more you trade or turn over your portfolio, the worse you’ll do, investing in cheaper value stocks is one of the few ways to beat the market, and almost no mutual funds can beat the market consistently. I’ll go over each of these in a little more depth.

Start with asset allocation. Conventional wisdom will tell you to invest about half your money in stocks, about half in bonds, and the rest in real estate/commodities. This is stupid. Investing in bonds or a bank account is considered “risk free” as you can’t lose money. But take your 5% interest rate, apply a 30% tax rate to it and you’re left with 3.5% after tax. Inflation runs at least 2% a year, so at best you’re getting a 1.5% per year real return. At worse you’re losing purchasing power and in 20 years when prices have doubled, your portfolio has barely budged.

So “safe” investments like bonds and bank accounts are only useful in the short term when you know you’ll need the money soon. If you’re saving for kids’ college or retirement or generally don’t need the money for 5 years (or better yet 10), it should be invested in stocks. Yes, the market sometimes declines 20-30% in a year or two. But over a 10 year time horizon it has almost never declined (you’d have to go back to the Depression I think). Even investing at the peak of the internet bubble (despite scary temporary losses) you’d have all your money back today, about 7 years later. So investing in the stock market with at least a 10-year horizon is not that risky – you’ll probably do at least as well as that 1.5% return from cash or bonds and you stand a great chance of doing much better.

Over the long term you can expect to make 8% a year investing in the stock market. Despite the get-rich-quick mania around real estate in recent years, over the long term stocks yield a better return than real estate. All of the money you can afford to put away for 10 years or more should be invested in the stock market. It may feel risky but it isn’t. It is by far the best way to build wealth.

Mutual fund managers face a work environment and incentives that destroy any chance of outperforming the market over the long term. If they underperform the market for a few quarters, investors will withdraw money and chase a “hot fund” that has performed better in the recent past. The manager will lose his cushy high-paying job. So managers are focused on the extreme short-term and not doing worse than their benchmark. They mostly mirror the index (we call this “closet indexing”) and make small tweaks to their portfolio in the hope of beating it slightly. The ones who beat the market in a given year almost always fail to do so again. Once you factor in all their management fees and trading costs (they trade and turn over their portfolio way too much) you are almost guaranteed to underperform the market over the long term.

The smartest thing to do if you don’t have the time or inclination to do your own legwork is to invest in a passively managed index fund or ETF. The Vanguard 500 Index (VFINX) or S&P 500 ETF (SPY) are two great alternatives. Unless you’re willing to spend a few hours each week researching investments, the bulk of your funds should be invested this way. It is low-cost and tax-efficient and your money will compound at the highest expected rate available to you over 10, 20, 30 or more years. If you want to “play the market” with individual stocks, that’s fine, but that should be done with a small fraction of your portfolio, under 20%. Focus on value stocks and hold them for at least a year to minimize trading costs and taxes (holding stocks over a year qualifies for the lower 15% capital gains tax rate). Stay fully invested and don’t try to time the market.

Almost no one, even the best investors, has shown a consistent ability to time the market. One thing to watch in this regard though is the market’s P/E multiple. It has averaged a little over 15 over the long-term. This means you get $1 of annual earnings for every $15 invested. Dividing 1/15 equates to a 6.7% earnings yield. Not too great, but over time companies tend to grow and increase earnings so you’re doing better than that. During the dot-com bubble the market traded over 30x earnings. That is crazy and a good sign of a bubble. China’s market trades around there now. Don’t invest there. Right now the U.S. market is around 16-17 – not cheap but not expensive. In 2002-2003 the market was trading on a low-teens multiple. I can’t predict the future and didn’t know the economy would rebound in 2003. But the market was cheap and it turned out to be a great time to invest. Right when everyone thought we were heading into a recession and was pulling money out of stocks. Maybe that’s why the market was cheap! Starting to catch on?

OK so now we get to the fun part, stock picking. The fundamental philosophy: when you buy a stock you are investing in a business that generates cash flow each year. You have three questions to ask: what price am I paying for that annual cash flow, how stable is that annual cash flow, and where is it going in the future? You can use net income or earnings per share as a proxy for cash flow. If the company earns $1 of EPS each year, what are you willing to pay for that $1 of income? If you pay $10 then your yield is 1/10 or 10% and that’s great. If you pay $20 then your yield is 5%. Now you’re paying so much you’re not doing much better than the bank account with 5% interest. You only hope is that the cash flow grows a lot in the future and raises your yield over 5%. This is why fast-growing, exciting stocks trade at such high P/E multiples- either people pay no attention to price, or they expect their earnings to grow tremendously in the future. The problem with that is that future growth is very hard to forecast, and these stocks are “priced for perfection” or really high growth. When they inevitably stumble in their growth, the stock price plunges. There are many examples- the most recent are WFMI and STZ.

The alternative is to invest in Value stocks or cheap stocks. Start with a cheap price and then dig through the alternatives to find good companies trading cheaply. Start with lower P/E multiples or Price/Cash Flow multiples and you’re building in a safety net. It has been statistically proven that these stocks outperform the market. Not every year, but over the long term. The problem is that many of these stocks deserve to be priced so cheaply and it can be hard to pick out the hidden gems that are mispriced. That’s what I do all day long. And it’s what Joel Greenblatt’s formula takes a stab at doing quickly with a quantitative formula. It does a pretty good job. I would encourage people to use this list, or other value stocks, as a starting point, and then do research if they can.
Buying Closed-End Funds at a big discount can be another good strategy. I haven’t done much research into this, if you do it, research the fund, be skeptical, and try to figure out why it deserves to trade at a discount.
On diversification: you need to diversify to protect yourself against company-specific stocks. Investing is always uncertain: companies can be sued out of existence, factories blow up, and other bad things can happen. Keeping any one position from being too large a piece of your portfolio is the only protection against this. Holding at least 15-20 stocks gets you most of the diversification benefits if you spread your bets across different industries. Holding more is better but it’s harder to find 50 great stocks. Diversifying into other countries or asset classes like real estate and commodities isn’t worth it – you give up too much in expected return for a small diversification benefit.

I hope some people found this helpful and apologize if it was too preachy or boring!
OK, saving the best for last, here are some of my favorite stocks:

BAC, COP, CVH, ELOS, FO, JAH, LCAPA, LEE, LLL, LTR, MO, ODP, PFE, SYMC

I think all of them are cheap and generate lots of cash flow relative to the price you have to pay. They won’t all go up over the next year, but hopefully combined as a portfolio they will outperform the market!

[SpaceLord]

Awesome first post, Luca_Brasi.

Some sound advice in there.

Right now, though, my experimental portfolio is kinda meh, I am just a bit in the black. Hopefully, AVCI, which announced a dividend, will close the gap.

[noxiousdog]

W00t. Love that post luca.

[Crux]

Nice post. I'm just re-reading Buffetology for the nth time. Much of what you say is a repeat of the book... and that is a compliment, not a criticism

[Crux]

OK, saving the best for last, here are some of my favorite stocks:

BAC, COP, CVH, ELOS, FO, JAH, LCAPA, LEE, LLL, LTR, MO, ODP, PFE, SYMC

I think all of them are cheap and generate lots of cash flow relative to the price you have to pay. They won’t all go up over the next year, but hopefully combined as a portfolio they will outperform the market!

Now it is morning and I have a little more time I wanted to comment/ask questions. Don't break my fingers Luca!

So I'm very much a Buffet man when it comes to investing. I mean obviously his philosophy of investing has been pretty much as successful as it gets. All of his ideas just make sense to me.

So what I'm looking for in companies is really several things, and if I had to sum it up in 3 points it would:

1) Durable competitive advantage
2) Predictable earnings that grow at a 'good' rate
3) The right price

So that's really the criteria I'm using when I look at your stock suggestions. I'm not completely against a little Graham value investing if the stock and price are right. But it's have to be a heck of a bargain. So, I figured I would offer my own thoughts on the stocks you suggested from my perspective. I'm not doing this as a way of 'laying down the law'. Rather just giving my analysis and I'd *love* to have some discussion about them! Learning new things is good for me.

1) BAC - Bank of America

At a P/E and reasonably consistent growth in earnings this is a bargain buy. The only real concern I have about BAC is that it doesn't truly hold any durable competitive advantage over its competitors. There really isn't anything if much to differentiate it from, say, Wachovia, Suntrust or many other 'big name' banks out there.

That said, banking is obviously a pretty stable and profitable business if management isn't doing anything stupid. The big players are established, and I don't see any of them going away. And given how credit-card obsessed our society is... well business will likely always be good.

They're pulling in 17-20% RoE, which is good but not spectacular (and they're only around the industry average for this). They're paying out yearly dividends, which means I'm paying tax on that instead of the company keeping the money and growing it for me. In all I'd say it definitely isn't a bad buy at this price.

Rating: 5.5/8 tentactles

2) COP - Conoco Phillips

Big Oil Actually in all honesty this is one of my least favorite of your suggestions. Oil is obviously a very price competitive market. I don't buy my gas on brand name - I buy from whoever is cheapest. I think it is easy to get suckered in by the record profits some oil companies have had of late. This is reflected in the leap in stock price since 2003. Between 1991 and 2001 it grew at at a mediocre 9.3%.

With earnings projected to level off if not decrease, and given the fact it is towards the low end in the industry in RoE, RoI, EPS growth and Revenue Growth, long term I'm not liking this one. The only redeeming factor I'm seeing here is the low 8ish P/E.

Rating: 2/8 tentactles

3) CHV - Coventry Health Care

I am generally a fan of insurance companies. The only catch is there are a gajillion out there and they need to be run well to be profitable (one can just look at Geico's history for proof of that). Given my seeking a durable competitive advantage, and that such advantages are often derived from brand name, I'm a little dubious when dealing with a company I've never heard of before.

That said, I love the profile of revenue growth. The five year EPS of 44% is phenomenal. In fact, there is a lot to love about this company period. I only wish there was some indication it can sustain this kind of growth! Great find.

Rating: 7/8 tentacles

To Be Continued.

[Crux]

Need. more. time.

Anyways, rather than sit here and try to critique all those stocks, I'll say thank you for giving me a heads up on a few of them. I really like the looks of CVH and LLL!

Tomorrow, assuming my transfer to my account goes through ok I will likely be acquiring a position in MNI. It's been hammered hard in the last 2 years, but it is a strong company and is seriously undervalued right now.

[LawBeefaroni]

Thanks for the post, Luca. Well done.

I'll just address a few points right now. I didn't want to go point by point but believe me, I did read the whole thing and I have this entire thread on my 770 for future reference.

It sounds like some of you are on the right track and doing a good job of investing. Others sound like they are somewhere between casino gambling and giving their money away.

Not sure where I fall in there but I view what I do as somewhat calculated gambling. I have a 401K, pension, a few real estate investments, and a bit of cash. So I view my stock portfolio less as retirement and more as a hobby. FWIW.

I work for a hedge fund. I spend 12 hours a day reading companies’ 10Ks and research reports and talking to analysts, lawyers and managements. I study a company for at least a week before we even consider taking a position in it. Professionals have huge advantages over individual investors – time, expertise and access to market data. It is extremely difficult to compete against the pros and do better than them. You could always invest with them in a mutual fund. The problem is that almost all actively managed mutual funds suck.

I have no doubt that hedge funds and other professional money managers have huge advantages. I don't expect to compete with them. I'm happy to pick up a few crumbs from the table and remain unnoticed. I also get more satisfaction out of turning a profit through a bit of work than throwing it at a fund (and that's what the 401K is for anyway). Even if it's an illusion, I look at the market as a meritocracy where hardwork, caution and persistance will profit, albeit heavily weighted towards the pros, and laziness and disregard will cost.

Real investing is hard work and relatively boring. You don’t end up owning exciting stocks like Apple and Google and biotechs that might double in a year.

I probably haven't done it enough yet because I look forward to reading a 10K over lunch.

OK, saving the best for last, here are some of my favorite stocks:

BAC, COP, CVH, ELOS, FO, JAH, LCAPA, LEE, LLL, LTR, MO, ODP, PFE, SYMC

I think all of them are cheap and generate lots of cash flow relative to the price you have to pay. They won’t all go up over the next year, but hopefully combined as a portfolio they will outperform the market!

I've been following LLL and CVH. With BA and UTX I don't think I want more defense (LLL) but I'm still watching.

As for CVH, I deal with CVH, WLP, AET, CI, UNH etc on a daily basis. I've been wanting to buy some healthcare and just got clearance from corporate compliance. They've all been acquiring like crazy and I'm still trying to sort out what to buy. I might just wait until there are 2 left.

[Crux]

As for CVH, I deal with CVH, WLP, AET, CI, UNH etc on a daily basis. I've been wanting to buy some healthcare and just got clearance from corporate compliance. They've all been acquiring like crazy and I'm still trying to sort out what to buy. I might just wait until there are 2 left.

Interesting, lawBeef. What are your impressions on CVH and UNH having worked with them? Those two are high on my short list of stocks I am interested in picking up.

[SpaceLord]

VV00+!!!

My trading stratergy must be working. My stocks were up 1.5% today, on a "meh" day on Wall Street.

I've experienced the "dividend drop" as I call it. On the ex-dividend date, the stock AVCI dropped 2 bucks-ish, roughly equal to the announced dividend. What should I expect on the day the dividend pays, this coming Friday?

[LawBeefaroni]

Interesting, lawBeef. What are your impressions on CVH and UNH having worked with them? Those two are high on my short list of stocks I am interested in picking up.

Short version? They're very different. UNH is huge, comparable to Cigna and Aetna. CVH is a much smaller company and more of a regional player.

With those two, it's not an even comparision.

[Crux]

Interesting, lawBeef. What are your impressions on CVH and UNH having worked with them? Those two are high on my short list of stocks I am interested in picking up.

Short version? They're very different. UNH is huge, comparable to Cigna and Aetna. CVH is a much smaller company and more of a regional player.

With those two, it's not an even comparision.

Well, what impressions do you have of them? Does one seem better run than the other? Does either seem to be growing quickly compared to the industry as a whole from your interactions or frequency of interactions with them? Which one are you and your coworkers less likely to spend time laughing about the incompetency of?

Guess I'm looking for a real world impression of them from someone who works with them on a daily basis. 10k's only tell so much

[Luca_Brasi]

Some responses to Crux:

BAC:
The large banks are currently trading at very cheap levels. BAC is trading just above 10x earnings. You're right that it's hard to see a clear durable competitive advantage. But they are the largest bank in the U.S. so they have a massive branch network, a huge credit card network. So I give them credit for tremendous scale, customer relationships, etc. It may not be the best bank out there but it's trading way too cheap. The management is smart and are good acquirers and integrators of businesses. You are correct to analyze a bank using ROE- theirs is more stable than banks with bigger exposure to more volatile businesses like securities trading and investment banking. You're also right to point out paying taxes on dividends is a bad thing and it's better to keep your money in the company. That's why I prefer stock buybacks to dividends. It may not be the best bank but it's one of the cheapest and best buys for the price; you can buy a better bank at a higher P/E with Citigroup (C) or an even better one at a still-higher price in Wells Fargo (WFC). I don't think either one is worth the higher price but you can't go too wrong with any of the 3.

COP:
Every negative thing you say is right. And it's even worse than you think. Every year they pull 5-10% of their reserves out of the ground and they have to spend a fortune to find more or they'll be out of business! And with oil prices so high, foreign countries (where most of the remaining oil is located) are raising taxes and nationalizing assets left and right and there's nothing big oil can do. COP is especially exposed to this as they have exposure in Russia through owning some of Lukoil; Putin has tossed Shell out of the country and is about to do the same to BP. He also stole Yukos away from shareholders when its CEO decided to back the opposition (not a smart man). COP also has a big asset in Venezuela where Chavez is nationalizing assets. Plus COP just made a big acquisition (Burlington) at a high price. So what's the good part? All this bad news pushed COP's price down to just 5x cash flow. That's right, it's a ridiculous price- even if bad things happen, shareholders will do fine. Every year you get 20% of your investment back in cash. Also COP has a big refining business, where all the real money is being made. We haven’t built a new refinery in 20 years and new environmental regulations are reducing supply further. That’s why gas prices are so high this year. I like COP’s Price / Cash flow multiple and the company will hopefully turn things around, get good value for any foreign assets it has to sell, and spend more money in stock buybacks then exploring for oil. I think it goes to $100 from $80 now even if the price of oil stays put or declines somewhat.

I don’t have time to get to CVH but I will copy over a short report on one of my favorites: ELOS. They make lasers used in non-invasive cometic prodecures- laser hair removal, wrinkle reduction and cellulite reduction. They are based in Israel but the stock trades in the U.S. and they sell products worldwide, mainly in the U.S. and Europe. These procedures are extremely popular and this segment of the cosmetic world is growing like gangbusters. Doctors across the country are closing their regular practices to open wellness centers and day spas because they can double or triple their salary. Selling the lasers is very competitive and while the market is growing rapidly there are several competitors selling similar products. ELOS has a few patents and a slightly superior product so they’ve been gaining market share, which is great. The margin on making the laser is 85% which is sick – for every $1 of sales they only spend $0.15 making the thing. Most other expenses go to marketing and R&D for new products. ELOS grew revenues by 35% last year but spent a lot of money building their sales and marketing infrastructure out so EPS was actually lower in 2006 than 2005. But they should reverse that trend slightly in 2007 and much more so in 2008. Because they engage in R&D and export their products, they get a special tax break from the Israeli government so they pay very little taxes. They have $6.40 per share of cash sitting in the bank. They generate $40mm of cash each year or $1.43 per share. The stock trades around $25; subtract out the $6.40 of cash and for $18.50 you get $1.26 per share in cash flow – that’s a 13x multiple for a rapidly growing company! Their main competitors (who they’re stealing market share from) trade at multiples of 20x and 30x –CLZR and CUTR. They’re coming out with new products including a laser for dental surgery and a home-use laser skincare device they’re developing with Procter & Gamble. These will boost future growth rates. I think it should trade for $30 at least. Investors are short-sighted and impatient, mainly because EPS went down last year. They are foolish and now the stock is way too cheap at $30!


A few other responses:
Closed-end funds trading at a discount can be a good investment but those discounts can persist a long, long time.

When a stock goes ex-dividend, the price falls by the amount of the dividend. That is the day of record when you must hold the stock to be entitled to the dividend. At the end of that day, if you own the stock trading at $20 paying a $1 dividend, the stock falls to $19 and you have the right to receive $1 in the near future when it is paid. The next day if someone buys your share they don’t get the dividend, just the share worth $19; you get the $1 dividend. So the price reacts on the ex-dividend day, not the payment day.

[LawBeefaroni]

VV00+!!!

My trading stratergy must be working. My stocks were up 1.5% today, on a "meh" day on Wall Street.

I've experienced the "dividend drop" as I call it. On the ex-dividend date, the stock AVCI dropped 2 bucks-ish, roughly equal to the announced dividend. What should I expect on the day the dividend pays, this coming Friday?

The stock trades without the dividend starting on the ex-date which is why it drops. It won't happen on the pay date. The ex-date is (2 or 3?) days before the record date because of the time required to settle a trade.

Well, what impressions do you have of them? Does one seem better run than the other? Does either seem to be growing quickly compared to the industry as a whole from your interactions or frequency of interactions with them? Which one are you and your coworkers less likely to spend time laughing about the incompetency of?

Guess I'm looking for a real world impression of them from someone who works with them on a daily basis. 10k's only tell so much

I focus primarily on the local market. My personal experience probably wouldn't be representative of the companies as a whole.

UNH is much larger and benefits from certain economies of scale (Labcorp deal, radilogy notification, etc). It is, by necessity, pacing CIGNA and Aetna and other large companies on things like HSAs/HRAs, consumer directed health care, medicare/medicare PFFS, etc. They have a robust electronic claims and payment processing system (incidentally, health care IT is worth looking at). They enter markets through acquisitions and compete with the other big companies in most markets.

CVH is about half the size in terms of revenue. Being smaller, they have a higher growth rate but also don't have the same market share. They are more regionally focused. I didn't deal with them personally until they acquired First Health (early 2005, roughly $2B), which is a plan we deal with. CVH does want to compete with the larger plans though.

I really don't have any groundbreaking info. I go over their reports like anyone else but when some analyst talks about UNH's UHCOnline Provider Portal or whatever I know that it's not really the industry changing feature they make it out to be. Or when Aetna has a PR announcing the availability of consumer pricing, I know CIGNA is doing it too, under a different name.

[Crux]

I really don't have any groundbreaking info. I go over their reports like anyone else but when some analyst talks about UNH's UHCOnline Provider Portal or whatever I know that it's not really the industry changing feature they make it out to be. Or when Aetna has a PR announcing the availability of consumer pricing, I know CIGNA is doing it too, under a different name.

Hey that's good stuff to know, Beef Thanks for that feedback. It really is helpful to know that people dealing with them don't have bad impressions!

[Crux]

Hey Luca,

Thanks for the feedback. It's always nice to hear thoughts validated by someone who knows more than you I think at the end of the day we'll probably just be at different places as to whether or not we want to put our money into certain stocks.

Honestly I'm strongly leaning for four different companies right now.

1) BAC. I already spelled that one out. I think at that P/E it is a good buy. Still not a fan of the dividend, which is the only thing really holding me back on this one.

2) CVH. The financials on this company are just wonderful. Consistently high growth. Flush with cash, relatively small long-term debt (they have enough cash to more than pay off their long-term debt right now). The only thing that holds me back is my lack of knowledge of their industry. Can they continue to grow at the rates they have been?

3) UNH. Similar to CVH financially, although more long-term debt. Basically they seem bigger in scale, but scaled down in growth. In some ways perhaps a more dependable bet. Pondering getting some of both CVH and UNH. Tough call.

4) MNI. This is the crazy one. They bought Knight Ridder, and took on some debt to do so. For all that, they are trading at a very low P/E right now, and financially the company doesn't seem in as bad a shape as the stock price would suggest. It's fallen to 1/3 of it's former price in the past 24 months. Much of this seems to be bad news phenomenon more than actual problems with the company's underlying economics. Sure they ran a loss last year, but things seem to be set to turn around. If you would ever buy this company, now seems to be the time (or maybe in a couple of weeks if the price keeps dropping!).

5) I forgot to add LLL in there. I'm not as confident on the long-term prospects of this one though so it'll probably be a pass.

[LawBeefaroni]

Update for the week:
Sold some PG ~$62
Bought IMOS $7 even
Bought more POT ~$79


Wish I still had WSCI.


Do not do what I do.

[Pyperkub]

I have a pretty good long position in BAC already, and the reason it looks like a pretty good buy right now is because of the sub-prime mortgage market drag on the industry as a whole. BAC got dinged a little over 10% of its previous value as the sub-prime market problems came to light and it hasn't really recovered.

So, if you are looking at BAC, or other banking stocks, bear in mind that the sub-prime market (and whatever public woes/successes it may have) will impact your base investment.

I currently have my BAC shares set on a DRIP, so any share price drop is offset at least in part by the increased buying power of the dividends.

[Carpet_pissr]

Speaking of the subprime debacle, I am looking hard at MTH (Meritage Homes Corp).

It could obviously go down more, but this is one of the best (if not the best) in an industry that is currently getting slammed. Great time to buy if you ask me.

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=MTH

Obviously, one to buy and hold for a long time...

[Carpet_pissr]

Hey, Lawbeef - congrats on the CAPS rating! Very impressive sir, in such a short time!

"Rank: 6608 out of 30898"

very nice!

[LawBeefaroni]

Hey, Lawbeef - congrats on the CAPS rating! Very impressive sir, in such a short time!

"Rank: 6608 out of 30898"

very nice!

I guess I'm an all-star now. Unfortunately my CAPS portfolio has more winners than my real one. OTOH, I don't have to deduct S&P performance from real-life of gains. EDIT: No longer an all-star. Looks like 80 is the cutoff. At 79 now.

Speaking of the subprime debacle, I am looking hard at MTH (Meritage Homes Corp).

It could obviously go down more, but this is one of the best (if not the best) in an industry that is currently getting slammed. Great time to buy if you ask me.

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=MTH

Obviously, one to buy and hold for a long time...

I was thinking about playing contrarian to the housing bears with MAS but I think it's safer to wait it out. Even more so with builders and lenders. Some of my "good ideas" are better left as ideas and I'm learning to recognize that.

Rough day today but I had a few strong finishers.

[Crux]

Rough couple of days for me too. Random luck, but if I'd waited a couple of days I could have picked up BAC and MNI for $1 to $1.50 per share cheaper. Argh!

[Carpet_pissr]

I have been eyeing BAC for a while since M* has practically been drooling over it for the past months. Just need to figure out what to sell to buy some...no FCF at the ol' home place if you know what I mean.

[Crux]

I'd be happier if I'd bought mine today instead of a few days ago But, it was still a good price at where I got it I feel. My only hesitation with it honestly is the dividends, but I can live with it.

MNI on the other hand is a much riskier investment. I just feel like it is majorly undervalued right now. I'm hoping for a correction upwards in the next 18 months to 2 years, at which point I'll sell out on it and move that money into something else. Worst case I can't see it getting any worse This one is a little bit outside my normal pick, but the value was just too enticing.

[Carpet_pissr]

Check this out, guys!

Sweet little tool!

http://darren78.homeip.net/investments/bmw/

[Crux]

That's awesome. I won't pee on your carpet!

[Crux]

Argh. I can't get it to run

[LawBeefaroni]

Just want to say that POT is dope. One tough stock, after it made me choke on my Mountain Dew this morning.

[LawBeefaroni]

Ended up getting into Spirit AeroSystems (SPR) on Friday with the PHO proceeds. $34.62.

Critical days ahead with the 787 on 7/8/07 and the Paris Airshow around the 18th of this month.

Paris was Airbus' show but it was all Boeing yesterday.

I think people are trying to find a creative approach to investing in the Dreamliner and should find SPR eventually. The order backlog is huge all along the supply chain.

[pengo]

Been day trading CFDs on the ASX200 mini ($5 per point/per contract/deposit $350aud) thru IGMarkets.

Started out late jun with $390~ got up to $650 today, but finished down $150 today. So sitting at an account balance of $500.

Fun times when I'm doing well, not so good when the asx tanks intra-day

My best day trade was last week where I made $240 profit. Since then I've made sure to lose all that