Who should be Romney's running mate?

[msduncan]

Now that Romney has pretty much won the nomination. Who should be his running mate? Here's the trick: try to put aside your political bias and think about who would be the best strategic move for him to challenge Obama.

Rubio in Florida? Would strengthen his shot at winning Florida.
Someone from the south?
Someone that is more socially conservative to shore up his base?

[ImLawBoy]

Wouldn't Rubio also help with the Hispanic vote, and not just Florida? The GOP has been dying with the Hispanic vote this election cycle as they talk anti-immigration, and it's an increasingly large percentage of the population. That's where I'd be leaning if I were him right now.

[Exodor]

Wouldn't Rubio also help with the Hispanic vote, and not just Florida? The GOP has been dying with the Hispanic vote this election cycle as they talk anti-immigration, and it's an increasingly large percentage of the population. That's where I'd be leaning if I were him right now.

I'm not sure. They tried that with Palin - "a woman on the ticket will bring in the disaffected Hillary voters!" I've read that Rubio isn't all that popular with Hispanics and I'm not sure his presence will undo all the damage Republicans have done with Hispanic voters.

I'm going with the safe bet and thinking it will be someone bland and inoffensive that satisfies the base without Palin-izing the moderates. Pawlenty, maybe

[Anonymous Bosch]

Rubio seems the obvious choice. Perhaps Paul Ryan.

[Exodor]

Perhaps Paul Ryan.

I think his first budget proposal pretty much disqualifies him. The most recent budget is ridiculous but not as much as his first budget which would have replaced Medicare with vouchers.

I don't think Republicans want to try to defend that in Arizona or Florida.

[Kraken]

Someone equally moderate with foreign policy credibility would be an asset. Huntsman comes to mind. If he's going to have a shot in November, Romney has to distance himself from the wingnut pandering that he did during the primaries. And the few foreign policy pronouncements that he's made to date (eager for war with Iran, Russia's our #1 enemy) have been way off the mark.

[Exodor]

Someone equally moderate with foreign policy credibility would be an asset. Huntsman comes to mind. If he's going to have a shot in November, Romney has to distance himself from the wingnut pandering that he did during the primaries. And the few foreign policy pronouncements that he's made to date (eager for war with Iran, Russia's our #1 enemy) have been way off the mark.

I'm not sure the base would react well to dual Mormons.

Huckabee wouldn't be a bad choice - has he already ruled it out?

[DOS=HIGH]

He needs to avoid anyone associated with the Tea Party or Jersey Shore, and in that order. I'm not sure he could nominate someone that would sway my position toward him but certainly against him. The Palin debacle of 2008 should make his choice clearer though not necessarily easier.

[Crux]

I think Palin deserves another shot at the White House. Take her along for the ride!

[ichbinunique]

I'm thinking he probably needs some conservative cred. I think Romney will be decent enough at swinging moderates. I would love Huckabee, but that's just because I like Huckabee. I'm not sure he's a great strategic choice in terms of the states he needs to win. I think the concern is that this primary nonsense has gone on too long for him to successfully "etch-a-sketch" his way to a platform for the general elections.

[AWS260]

Rubio seems like the best choice by far: conservative cred (but not too conservative), swing state, and Latino.

[Defiant]

I wonder if working class cred might be more important than conservative creds? Especially for the midwest states where he seems to be somewhat weak.

Also, might there be reason to select a VP based on who will help more in the congressional elections rather than the presidential election?

[Kraken]

I'm not sure the base would react well to dual Mormons.

Good point, I didn't even think about religion. I still think foreign policy is a huge liability for him though.

He needs to avoid anyone associated with the Tea Party or Jersey Shore, and in that order.

I agree that a tea partier would be a mistake. That group's 15 minutes are over.

I wonder if working class cred might be more important than conservative creds?

Another good point -- being a One Percenter is his biggest drawback. Of course, they're all One Percenters, but none quite so blatantly as Romney.

[Holman]

I wonder if working class cred might be more important than conservative creds? Especially for the midwest states where he seems to be somewhat weak.

Right! What he needs is a major party candidate who identifies with the working class! Who's up?

... ... ... ... [crickets]

Ah, well. Fortunately, to Republicans, there is no such thing as "class."

[Mr Bubbles]

Zeddie Little

[AWS260]

I wonder if working class cred might be more important than conservative creds? Especially for the midwest states where he seems to be somewhat weak.

Right! What he needs is a major party candidate who identifies with the working class! Who's up?

Problem solved:

[Zarathud]

Joe the Plumber strikes me as a less sexy Palin. All of the dumb, with none of the positives.

Romney needs anyone who can help him win in Florida or the working class North Central U.S. (Ohio/Pennsylvania). Otherwise, he should take a respectable social conservative to cover the base.

[Grundbegriff]

Seems to me that Paul Ryan makes the most sense.

[Defiant]

I wonder if working class cred might be more important than conservative creds? Especially for the midwest states where he seems to be somewhat weak.

Right! What he needs is a major party candidate who identifies with the working class! Who's up?

Santorum and Huckabee strike me as candidates that resonate with the working class. I'm sure there are others.

[Exodor]

With all the hoo-ha about the Republican "war on women" maybe they'll look for another female choice.

I'm pretty sure Nikki Haley has already ruled it out.

Are there any other Republican women of note that wouldn't pull a Palin?

[Defiant]

And the few foreign policy pronouncements that he's made to date (eager for war with Iran, Russia's our #1 enemy) have been way off the mark.

I may easily have missed something, but I seem to remember that Romney, as opposed to Santorum, and to a lesser extent Gingrich, stance on Iran was along the lines of Obama's stance (without actually having the same stance, because, eww, he's a democrat). (As opposed to Paul who's way to the other extreme)

[Holman]

With all the hoo-ha about the Republican "war on women" maybe they'll look for another female choice.

I'm pretty sure Nikki Haley has already ruled it out.

Are there any other Republican women of note that wouldn't pull a Palin?

One came up a long time back, but I don't know anything about her. (Quoting myself from the 2012 Elections thread:)

Romney has already mentioned one potential female running mate: New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte.

[Kraken]

Apparently nobody's exactly clamoring for the job.

Republicans considered to be up-and-comers are scrambling to declare a lack of interest in becoming Mitt Romney’s running mate, taking themselves off any list of would-be vice presidents.

With Romney poised to win the GOP nomination in June, if not earlier, some of the focus has shifted to his pick for the number two spot on the ticket. But no one is rushing forward, and many of the top prospects are trying to shut down the conversation before it begins.

“I’m not going to be the vice president,’’ Senator Marco Rubio said Wednesday. “If offered any position by Governor Romney, I would say no,’’ South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley told the Associated Press a day earlier. “It’s humbling, but I’m not interested,’’ said Governor Susana Martinez of New Mexico.

Part of the dance is trying to appear uninterested in the role of designated attack dog and potential GOP front-runner for 2016 if Romney falls short in November. Part of it is also preserving a personal brand; campaigning for the second slot and coming up short is embarrassing.

It stands to reason that nobody wants to play second fiddle to a second-string candidate with poor prospects unless it builds their own name for 2016. Based on that, I'd expect an obscure pick (like Palin, except more carefully vetted).

[Grundbegriff]

Ayotte's a real possibility. So is Kyl. But Ryan has an edge insofar as he's popular among the conservatives who hesitate over Romney.

The set of impossibilities/improbabilities includes Santorum (no way), Huckabee(no point), Christie (too overshadowing), Rubio (too inexperienced), Haley (too inexperienced), Portman (no value added over Romney), ....

The tactical considerations are obvious.

On the one hand, there's little firm evidence that a Vice Prez can help; there's some evidence that the Veep can hurt a bit. In general, the Veep factor is shallow and weak.

Romney won't need to do what Bush and Obama did: select an elder statesman who can show him the ropes.
Romney, an Alphadog, is more likely to select either a servant/spokesman (whom he can fire!) or, on the Clinton model, a competent partner/collaborator.

He may try to shore up the conservative base, but the need is not desperate since they're going to prefer him over Obama and since they're unlikely to sit this one out. It's not automatically the case that Romney must select a conservative darling.

He may try to gain margin in the swing states. Selecting a popular figure from a swing state would perhaps accomplish this. To gain the edge, the person tapped would have to be either someone popular among moderates or someone wildly popular among conservatives and acceptable to moderates.

He may try to fix his perceived "woman problem" by selecting a woman. She would have to be somewhat experienced in the ways of executive government and conspicuously competent or articulate, to negate the Palin penumbra.

Conservatives, Swing Staters, Women: pick two, and there's your filter for forming a shortlist.

[Grundbegriff]

It stands to reason that nobody wants to play second fiddle to a second-string candidate with poor prospects unless it builds their own name for 2016. Based on that, I'd expect an obscure pick (like Palin, except more carefully vetted).

I think it would be a mistake to understimate how Romney will be perceived once the Republican beanbagfest is a fading memory. Because he's a consistently strong performer in the public events (e.g., the so-called debates) and has good message discipline (despite being a bit gaffe-prone), he's likely to have significant coattails if he can just shake off the diehard wannabes and build some mo.

Even if that doesn't pan out, though, service to the party in a weak cause will still earn chips. So the chief factor in weighing the Veephood is probably the publicity meatgrinder, with ripeness running a close second.

[ydejin]

Rubio seems the obvious choice. Perhaps Paul Ryan.

Someone equally moderate with foreign policy credibility would be an asset. Huntsman comes to mind. If he's going to have a shot in November, Romney has to distance himself from the wingnut pandering that he did during the primaries. And the few foreign policy pronouncements that he's made to date (eager for war with Iran, Russia's our #1 enemy) have been way off the mark.

I'm not sure the base would react well to dual Mormons.

Huckabee wouldn't be a bad choice - has he already ruled it out?

Turns out Rubio was also a Mormon at one point. Note sure how much the base will care about what he did when he was a kid, but the parts of the Republican base are definitely very anti-Mormon.

[msduncan]

I wonder if working class cred might be more important than conservative creds? Especially for the midwest states where he seems to be somewhat weak.

Right! What he needs is a major party candidate who identifies with the working class! Who's up?

... ... ... ... [crickets]

Ah, well. Fortunately, to Republicans, there is no such thing as "class."

Senator Kerry!

[msduncan]

How about Condoleezza Rice? She's a woman and also extremely experienced with foreign policy. She also fits the bill for a person that worked their way up from the working class.

[El Guapo]

How about Condoleezza Rice? She's a woman and also extremely experienced with foreign policy. She also fits the bill for a person that worked their way up from the working class.

Interesting suggestion. I think if I were Romney though I'd probably prefer someone who wasn't a prominent member of the Bush administration. Whatever you think of Bush he left with very low poll numbers; Obama is probably going to pitch (to some degree) "we're moving forward, don't return us to the Bush years" and a Bush administration member would make that pitch easier.

So my thinking is a newer face like Ryan or Rubio. Ayotte, though I know very little about her, sounds vaguely plausible as well.

[msduncan]

How about Condoleezza Rice? She's a woman and also extremely experienced with foreign policy. She also fits the bill for a person that worked their way up from the working class.

Interesting suggestion. I think if I were Romney though I'd probably prefer someone who wasn't a prominent member of the Bush administration. Whatever you think of Bush he left with very low poll numbers; Obama is probably going to pitch (to some degree) "we're moving forward, don't return us to the Bush years" and a Bush administration member would make that pitch easier.

So my thinking is a newer face like Ryan or Rubio. Ayotte, though I know very little about her, sounds vaguely plausible as well.

True, but nobody is better qualified. She's the anti-Palin. It's widely known that at a time when Russia didn't really deal one on one with female government officials, after meeting her they didn't want to deal with anyone BUT her. She's also much more measured than Palin ever was -- much closer to the definition of a Statesman.

And I believe she could hold her own and launch back at any Bush-connection criticism.

The big question? Would she take the job. She's got a pretty sweet deal right now.

[Arcanis]

Jindal has been mentioned around here, for obvious reasons. He has denied his interest again, he has insisted he wanted to wait until after he finished his time as Governor before considering a run as VP since 08.

The more I think about MSD's suggestion the more I like Rice as a VP. I think she brings a lot to the table and that she is distant enough from Bush that it won't bring too big of negatives. Though my understanding is that she wasn't interested in 08 so she likely still won't be interested. I'd hope her mind has changed since then, because even if they lose it gives her a good position to run in 2016 and I'd like to see that.

[El Guapo]

With Rice though I also wonder about the value she adds on foreign policy. Yes she's known for that, but the main associations that people have for Bush's foreign policy are wars - Iraq and Afghanistan. And I don't think people are in much of a warmongering mood these days after a decade of war. Now, Obama can't really harp on that much since he's escalated Afghanistan and overseen the (end of) the war in Iraq himself, but it's still not an ideal association. I think people are worried about more wars, and this might not help.

Ideally on foreign policy you'd like someone known for foreign policy who has more of an association with peace, I'd think. But I don't know who that would be.

[Arcanis]

With Rice though I also wonder about the value she adds on foreign policy. Yes she's known for that, but the main associations that people have for Bush's foreign policy are wars - Iraq and Afghanistan. And I don't think people are in much of a warmongering mood these days after a decade of war. Now, Obama can't really harp on that much since he's escalated Afghanistan and overseen the (end of) the war in Iraq himself, but it's still not an ideal association. I think people are worried about more wars, and this might not help.

Ideally on foreign policy you'd like someone known for foreign policy who has more of an association with peace, I'd think. But I don't know who that would be.

IMO the wars are laid at Bush's feet with Rice just trying to keep everything from going to hell in a hand basket. So I don't think too many people would blame her for the wars or think that is the only policy she knows, I see her as the damage control person in that situation as well as the diplomat for other countries. Again that is just my views on it and probably aren't reflective of the country as a whole. I also find her to be very easy to relate to which Romney is in dire need of.

[msduncan]

With Rice though I also wonder about the value she adds on foreign policy. Yes she's known for that, but the main associations that people have for Bush's foreign policy are wars - Iraq and Afghanistan. And I don't think people are in much of a warmongering mood these days after a decade of war. Now, Obama can't really harp on that much since he's escalated Afghanistan and overseen the (end of) the war in Iraq himself, but it's still not an ideal association. I think people are worried about more wars, and this might not help.

Ideally on foreign policy you'd like someone known for foreign policy who has more of an association with peace, I'd think. But I don't know who that would be.

IMO the wars are laid at Bush's feet with Rice just trying to keep everything from going to hell in a hand basket. So I don't think too many people would blame her for the wars or think that is the only policy she knows, I see her as the damage control person in that situation as well as the diplomat for other countries. Again that is just my views on it and probably aren't reflective of the country as a whole. I also find her to be very easy to relate to which Romney is in dire need of.

She also attends an occasional Alabama game when she's back in town in Birmingham.

[noxiousdog]

IMO the wars are laid at Bush's feet with Rice just trying to keep everything from going to hell in a hand basket. So I don't think too many people would blame her for the wars or think that is the only policy she knows, I see her as the damage control person in that situation as well as the diplomat for other countries. Again that is just my views on it and probably aren't reflective of the country as a whole. I also find her to be very easy to relate to which Romney is in dire need of.

Powell, fairly or unfairly, bears more of the rap for Iraq as compared to Rice.

[El Guapo]

I just think that the mental connection will be as simple as Rice --> Bush foreign policy --> wars. I don't think Rice gets a lot of blame for the start of the wars, so that's not an issue, but I think there's a general association with Bush and wars that would not be super helpful.

[Rip]

How about Condoleezza Rice? She's a woman and also extremely experienced with foreign policy. She also fits the bill for a person that worked their way up from the working class.

That would get me excited but she has been very clear about her lack of interest in running for the WH.

[msduncan]

I just think that the mental connection will be as simple as Rice --> Bush foreign policy --> wars. I don't think Rice gets a lot of blame for the start of the wars, so that's not an issue, but I think there's a general association with Bush and wars that would not be super helpful.

Frankly I don't think it's a boiling issue anymore. People are more focused on the half-a-hundred they are pouring into their gas tanks a couple times a week. And if people have a hard time remembering Vice Presidents, they have a hella time remembering or associating bad things to cabinet members.

[El Guapo]

I just think that the mental connection will be as simple as Rice --> Bush foreign policy --> wars. I don't think Rice gets a lot of blame for the start of the wars, so that's not an issue, but I think there's a general association with Bush and wars that would not be super helpful.

Frankly I don't think it's a boiling issue anymore. People are more focused on the half-a-hundred they are pouring into their gas tanks a couple times a week. And if people have a hard time remembering Vice Presidents, they have a hella time remembering or associating bad things to cabinet members.

That's fair enough. Maybe I'd worry a bit more about the connection with Bush generally then, rather than about the war angle.

Also makes me think, though, that Romney's going to win or lose based on the economy really. So maybe it makes more sense to pick someone with credibility on economic issues? I know Romney has that covered to an extent with his business credentials, but if the core issue is going to be the economy it couldn't hurt to have additional crediblity on that.

[Kraken]

How about Condoleezza Rice? She's a woman and also extremely experienced with foreign policy. She also fits the bill for a person that worked their way up from the working class.

She would be an asset to any ticket, but I don't think there's any chance.