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New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Kraken » Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:24 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Kraken wrote:
Holman wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Looks as if this is at risk of becoming conventional wisdom.
Interesting. I take it that you disagree?
I think he's suggesting that the risk is to our comfortable, lazy dismissal of everything Bush did.
When the Boston Globe runs something positive about Bush, even liberals have to take notice.
In general, life, politics, and policy are more complex than partisans of any stripe prefer to claim/suggest/admit.
I'm always willing to revise an opinion in light of new information or a good argument. I don't engage with anybody who isn't. Except sometimes in the Gaming Trend P&R forum, and then just for amusement. :tjg:

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by El Guapo » Wed Feb 16, 2011 6:00 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Kraken wrote:
Holman wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:Looks as if this is at risk of becoming conventional wisdom.
Interesting. I take it that you disagree?
I think he's suggesting that the risk is to our comfortable, lazy dismissal of everything Bush did.
When the Boston Globe runs something positive about Bush, even liberals have to take notice.
In general, life, politics, and policy are more complex than partisans of any stripe prefer to claim/suggest/admit.
Oh sure. While I am a democrat, I was largely supportive of the Bush administration's Freedom Agenda, to the extent that they actually followed through on it. Similarly, I am mildly disappointed that the Obama administration hasn't pushed it further than it has.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Defiant » Tue Apr 26, 2011 9:13 am

A poll of Egyptians
In this new political era, Egyptians are embracing long-standing bases of power, and new ones, as well. The military and its leadership are very well regarded, and the Egyptian public is clearly open to religion-based political parties being part of a future government. Most have a favorable opinion of the Muslim Brotherhood, and looking ahead to the elections, it has as much potential support as any of a number of political parties. But other agents of political change are also viewed positively by majorities of Egyptians, including the relatively secular April 6 Movement and political leaders Amr Moussa, Ayman Nour, and Mohamed ElBaradei.

No dividend emerges for the United States from the political changes that have occurred in Egypt. Favorable ratings of the U.S. remain as low as they have been in recent years, and many Egyptians say they want a less close relationship with America. Israel fares even more poorly. By a 54%-to-36% margin, Egyptians want the peace treaty with that country annulled.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by AWS260 » Wed Apr 27, 2011 3:48 pm

Post-revolution Egypt's first diplomatic coup: brokering reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas.
Asked why the deadlocked talks had come back to life, Mr. Nounou said, “The will was there for everyone.” He also credited the new mediators from Egypt, put in place after that country’s revolution, with “an exemplary performance,” including weeks of courtship at private meetings with each side before they met face to face with each other for the first time today.

The tentative deal is the first sign that the recent upheaval in the region, and specifically the Egyptian revolution, has reshuffled regional diplomacy. Previously, efforts to reconcile the two Palestinian factions fell under the jurisdiction of Mr. Mubarak’s right-hand man, Omar Suleiman. Although he talked to both sides, he and the Egyptian government were considered openly hostile to the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is an offshoot, and deeply committed to Egypt’s alliance with Israel.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Defiant » Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:03 pm

It's not quite the same numbers as the high points reached in the Arab Spring, but 200,000 are protesting in Egypt.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Rip » Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:42 am

Defiant wrote:It's not quite the same numbers as the high points reached in the Arab Spring, but 200,000 are protesting in Egypt.
Anyone know off hand how many were demonstrating in the pro-Morsi rally?

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by GreenGoo » Wed Dec 05, 2012 11:06 am

Defiant wrote:It's not quite the same numbers as the high points reached in the Arab Spring, but 200,000 are protesting in Egypt.
Good.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by GreenGoo » Wed Dec 05, 2012 11:06 am

Rip wrote:
Defiant wrote:It's not quite the same numbers as the high points reached in the Arab Spring, but 200,000 are protesting in Egypt.
Anyone know off hand how many were demonstrating in the pro-Morsi rally?
No, but it's an excellent question.

Edit:

This from the rally last Saturday.
CAIRO, Egypt — Tens of thousands of Islamists waved Egyptian flags and hoisted portraits of President Mohammed Morsi in rallies nationwide Saturday to support his efforts to rush through a new draft constitution despite widespread opposition by secular activists and some in the judiciary.
Should have some numbers later today.
Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood has called for a support rally for Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, as anti-Morsi demonstrators remained camped out at Cairo's Tahrir Square and in front of the presidential palace.

The Islamist group called for the demonstration later Wednesday outside of the presidential palace. They said the rally was called because opposition protesters were trying to “impose their opinions through force.”
I particularly like the "through force" comments. Protests are Arab Spring until they are against a Muslim Brotherhood member, then protests are "force". The only force I've seen is tear gas from the police. But I haven't been following in really close detail.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Defiant » Thu Dec 06, 2012 10:34 am

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/12/06/world ... index.html" target="_blank
Tanks and armored personnel carriers rolled into the shattered district near the Egyptian presidential palace Thursday after days of protests there targeting President Mohamed Morsy.
Five people have been killed and 446 injured in clashes between pro- and anti-Morsy demonstrators outside the palace, the Egyptian health ministry said Thursday. At least 35 police officers are among the injured, MENA reported.
On Thursday, Mohammed Seif became the fourth presidential adviser to resign during the upheaval, the state-run EgyNews reported.

Another former adviser, Amr Ellissy, told the world via Twitter that he resigned "in protest of the constitutional declaration and the fact that I was not consulted in making these decisions."
Vice President Mahmoud Mekki called for a dialogue with opposition figures and asked critics to submit their proposals to change the disputed articles in the proposed constitution.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Isgrimnur » Sat Dec 08, 2012 7:22 pm

CNN is throwing breaking news alerts that Morsi has cancelled the decree that allowed him to run things unchecked.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by GreenGoo » Sat Dec 08, 2012 7:31 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:CNN is throwing breaking news alerts that Morsi has cancelled the decree that allowed him to run things unchecked.
Wow, I did not expect that. These guys are more savvy than I expected.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Jan 29, 2013 5:44 pm

Army: Egypt's upheaval could lead to the “collapse of the state":
President Mohamed Morsi has been unable to reestablish order since the violence began on Jan. 25, the two-year anniversary of the Egyptian revolution. He began talks dubbed a national dialogue last night, but leading opposition parties and movements declined to attend, saying the talks were not serious. Even if they did, it's not clear that would stop the protesters and rioters on the street, who don't appear to be driven by political parties or movements. But the group reportedly agreed to form a committee to amend the constitution, one of the demands of the opposition.
...
Abdel Fattah El Sisi, head of the Army and also defense minister, issued his warning in an address to military cadets, which was posted on the Army's Facebook page today.

He said challenges facing Egypt were “a real threat to the security of Egypt and the cohesiveness of the state,” and said the Army would be “the solid and cohesive block” on which the state rests. "The continuation of the conflict between the different political forces and their differences over how the country should be run could lead to the collapse of the state and threaten future generations," he said.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Rip » Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:28 am

When the state that would collapse has such things as this to say.....
“The myth of the Holocaust is an industry that America invented,” Shihab-Eddim said, leaving no room for doubt that the Egyptian government -- like Iran's -- has at the very least significant elements that deny one of history's best documented genocides.
“U.S. intelligence agencies in cooperation with their counterparts in allied nations during World War II created it [the Holocaust] to destroy the image of their opponents in Germany, and to justify war and massive destruction against military and civilian facilities of the Axis powers, and especially to hit Hiroshima and Nagasaki with the atomic bomb,” Shihab-Eddim said.
“Fathi goes on to claim that the 6 million Jews all really moved to the United States during the war (and oddly no one noticed) and that the number of Jews killed in the war was about the number who died in traffic accidents,” Greenfield wrote in Frontpagemag.com.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/01/29 ... latestnews

then all I can say is good riddance.

So I guess is they all moved into tunnel cities underneath the rockies. Probably where the ones that run Hollywood that everyone talks about are. Every time I hear some douchbag spout crap like that I imagine it is Borat saying it. :lol:

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by El Guapo » Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:03 am

I will say that I do enjoy Holocaust denialism in that it's much more pleasant to think about 6 million jews just packing up and moving to the United States.

But yes, no one should have any illusions about the Muslim Brotherhood. Of course, if the government collapses, there's a coup, etc. it's not like that chain of events is going to be all sunshine and roses either.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by GreenGoo » Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:05 am

I can't believe the minority secularists and catholics are willing to go to war again. I'm amazed and impressed. Egypt absolutely would have gone down a path unfriendly to western ideals with the muslim brotherhood at the helm.

This is history in the making, whatever happens.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by El Guapo » Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:12 am

The major problem is that, if Egypt's going to become a stable democracy one day, it's by definition going to need respected democratic institutions. So if there's a coup, or (a little less so) if Morsi has to step down early into his elected term, that's not really building democratic institutions. Of course, Morsi / the Brotherhood is not likely to want to share democratic power either.

So...not a lot of great choices.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by GreenGoo » Wed Jan 30, 2013 1:02 pm

I don't disagree. We're still in the anarchy phase of switching governments.

P.S. Is that still a valid reference? Most of my experience comes from II.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by El Guapo » Wed Jan 30, 2013 1:48 pm

I suppose its heartening that the secularists and others still want to go to war. If this is going to end well, it'll require a lot of endurance among the Egyptian polity to keep protesting and keep fighting until democratic institutions are built and there's a peaceful, orderly transition of power.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Kraken » Wed Jan 30, 2013 4:56 pm

El Guapo wrote:I suppose its heartening that the secularists and others still want to go to war. If this is going to end well, it'll require a lot of endurance among the Egyptian polity to keep protesting and keep fighting until democratic institutions are built and there's a peaceful, orderly transition of power.
Or they'll eventually decide that a military coup and a new strongman is better than chronic chaos.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Isgrimnur » Fri May 24, 2013 1:02 am

Things aren't looking so rosy over there these days.

The real question is going to be whether the downhill slide threatens stability in the surrounding countries, or just feeds on itself to create a humanitarian crisis like Somalia before spilling out into the Red and the Med.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by hepcat » Fri May 24, 2013 9:57 am

I have to wonder if there are any governments in this world that base their policies primarily on religion that actually work/have worked.
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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by silverjon » Fri May 24, 2013 10:40 am

Seems like that would be difficult to measure, because there would be systems that aren't in place now but that did work for their people for 100s of years (which in human terms is a pretty long time).
wot?

To be fair, adolescent power fantasy tripe is way easier to write than absurd existential horror, and every community has got to start somewhere... right?

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Rip » Fri May 24, 2013 11:35 am

hepcat wrote:I have to wonder if there are any governments in this world that base their policies primarily on religion that actually work/have worked.
Not until Scientology takes over a Country.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Kraken » Fri May 24, 2013 1:21 pm

hepcat wrote:I have to wonder if there are any governments in this world that base their policies primarily on religion that actually work/have worked.
Ancient Egypt comes immediately to mind, and some of the Central American civs had good long runs. In modern times, maybe Israel?

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by ImLawBoy » Fri May 24, 2013 1:28 pm

Does the Vatican count?
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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by stessier » Fri May 24, 2013 1:32 pm

I keep reading this as New England Unrest and wondering what is up. :?
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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Holman » Sun Jun 30, 2013 6:27 pm

Whoa--Hundreds of Thousands of Egyptians Pour Into Streets, Demanding Morsi’s Ouster:
CAIRO — Hundreds of thousands of protesters demanding the ouster of Egypt’s president, Mohamed Morsi, poured into the streets of the capital and cities across the country Sunday, while tens of thousands of his Islamist allies gathered with makeshift clubs, helmets and shields vowing to defend the presidential palace.

In an outpouring of rage late Sunday night, a group of demonstrators set fire to the headquarters of Mr. Morsi’s Muslim Brotherhood movement in Cairo. Hundreds of attackers with Molotov cocktails vowed to kill anyone inside, and used green pen lasers to search for figures in the windows. “Their leaders left them like sheep for the slaughter,” one attacker said. Some Brotherhood members inside fired birdshot at the attackers, wounding several, but there did not appear to be a concerted effort to repel them.
And the reason:
Though angry about the lack of public security and desperate economic conditions, the demonstrators were united in the conviction that Mr. Morsi had failed to transcend his personal roots in the Muslim Brotherhood, an insular Islamist movement that is considered Egypt’s most formidable political force. The sheer scale of the demonstrations across the country delivered a sharp rebuke to the group’s claim to speak for the majority of Egyptians.
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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Isgrimnur » Sun Jun 30, 2013 11:02 pm

And they've got laser pointers!

Image

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Holman » Mon Jul 01, 2013 8:06 am

There are some of the AH-64's we sold to Hosni, now on Disco Ball duty.
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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by msduncan » Mon Jul 01, 2013 9:48 am

stessier wrote:I keep reading this as New England Unrest and wondering what is up. :?

Aaron Hernandez stuffs?
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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Enough » Mon Jul 01, 2013 12:24 pm

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by stessier » Mon Jul 01, 2013 12:41 pm

Well this can't be good -
CNN wrote:Cairo (CNN) -- [CNN breaking news update at 11:58 a.m. Monday]
Egypt's armed forces sent a stiff message to the country's embattled president and his political opponents and allies: the current governing crisis must be resolved in 48 hours or it will embark on a road map designed to restore order.
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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by hepcat » Mon Jul 01, 2013 1:19 pm

The "Arab Spring" strikes me as a double edged sword. People have proven they can revolt and bring down oppressive regimes...but once they get a replacement government, any group that's unhappy with that replacement feels like they can do the same thing again. I worry that we'll see a revolving door of leadership in the Middle East due to this.

I'm not saying the Muslim Brotherhood is a good government, mind you. Just that there's a precedent in the area now that might be more harmful than helpful at some point.
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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by LordMortis » Mon Jul 01, 2013 1:28 pm

hepcat wrote:The "Arab Spring" strikes me as a double edged sword. People have proven they can revolt and bring down oppressive regimes...but once they get a replacement government, any group that's unhappy with that replacement feels like they can do the same thing again. I worry that we'll see a revolving door of leadership in the Middle East due to this.

I'm not saying the Muslim Brotherhood is a good government, mind you. Just that there's a precedent in the area now that might be more harmful than helpful at some point.
And that's why civil wars are so brutal and why it's generally best to stay far away from them when you are on the outside.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Holman » Mon Jul 01, 2013 1:29 pm

I think this is a continuation of the same revolution, not the launch of a new one. Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood just failed the audition, and a strict-Islamist Egyptian state seems that much less likely.
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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Kraken » Mon Jul 01, 2013 1:44 pm

The supremacy struggle between religious and secular, as well as between religious sects, is going to continue throughout the region for a very long time, I'm afraid. Iraq is on the brink again, too.

Makes you miss the oppressive strongmen who kept the lid on all this. Maybe Egypt's army will step into that role.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Holman » Mon Jul 01, 2013 1:50 pm

Constitutional continuity is usually better than violent overthrow. However, the present constitution was tailored to favor the Muslim Brotherhood. This is one of the roots of the unrest.
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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by El Guapo » Mon Jul 01, 2013 1:52 pm

hepcat wrote:The "Arab Spring" strikes me as a double edged sword. People have proven they can revolt and bring down oppressive regimes...but once they get a replacement government, any group that's unhappy with that replacement feels like they can do the same thing again. I worry that we'll see a revolving door of leadership in the Middle East due to this.

I'm not saying the Muslim Brotherhood is a good government, mind you. Just that there's a precedent in the area now that might be more harmful than helpful at some point.
It'll stabilize at some point; if nothing else people will get tired of revolting. Either someone will come to power who is broadly acceptable to the masses, or someone will get to killin' people until they settle down. Or a mix of both.

The resistance to Morsi is a good thing, since he's a fundamentally illiberal figure. Of course, the tricky part is figuring out a constitutional way to get from him to someone else.

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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by Moat_Man » Mon Jul 01, 2013 7:58 pm

El Guapo wrote: Of course, the tricky part is figuring out a constitutional way to get from him to someone else.
It's called an election. If the Egyptians are truly democratic then they will have to wait three years and vote him out. Welcome to the wonderful world of, "I didn't vote for the folks in power and I don't like what they are doing." However, if he tries to stay after getting voted out or rig the election then all bets are off.
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Re: New Egyptian Unrest: Tunisia Part II?

Post by El Guapo » Mon Jul 01, 2013 11:54 pm

Moat_Man wrote:
El Guapo wrote: Of course, the tricky part is figuring out a constitutional way to get from him to someone else.
It's called an election. If the Egyptians are truly democratic then they will have to wait three years and vote him out. Welcome to the wonderful world of, "I didn't vote for the folks in power and I don't like what they are doing." However, if he tries to stay after getting voted out or rig the election then all bets are off.
Well, sure. But Egypt's democratic institutions are not yet built, the Muslim Brotherhood is decidedly not a democratic organization, and if the Egyptian people leave Morsi and his cohort to do the work there won't be an election in three years (or at least, not a free and fair one).

And there are democratic alternatives to waiting the three years. If protests lead Morsi to resign and/or share power, that's one. If they result in a new constitutional convention, that's another.

Of course, if protests and the threat of a military coup achieve that...quasi-democratic.

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