Political Randomness

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El Guapo
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by El Guapo »

Defiant wrote:Setting aside the moral/ethical implications:
Jeff V wrote: Torture is not a credible way to gain information since the tortured will say anything to make it stop.
Sounds like it's a credible way to gain information, but the information may have a greater chance for inaccuracy (if, say, the suspect doesn't have the relevant information)
How do you know the difference between useful information from someone who knows something and rubbish from someone who truly knows nothing but acts like they do to make it stop?
The same way you check other pieces of intelligence for accuracy? (Present it to the UN and then find out years later it was wrong... I mean, verify it with other independent sources of information)
It would be hard to argue that you can *never* get useful information out of torture (and indeed, though there is some dispute about this, my understanding is that one of the first pieces of information in the chain that ultimately led to discovering Bin Laden's whereabouts came from a tortured Gitmo detainee). My understanding is that there is a general consensus that it's generally a poor method of getting reliable information, so that that plus the serious propaganda drawbacks and the moral / ethical considerations make for a strong argument for banning the use of torture.
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Defiant
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Defiant »

El Guapo wrote:
It would be hard to argue that you can *never* get useful information out of torture (and indeed, though there is some dispute about this, my understanding is that one of the first pieces of information in the chain that ultimately led to discovering Bin Laden's whereabouts came from a tortured Gitmo detainee).
And here is that dispute.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Holman »

I'm pretty sure the question "Do you support the torture of captured terrorists as punishment for terrorism?" would do depressingly well among Trump supporters.

The cheering you hear at his rallies isn't about effective intelligence gathering.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by GreenGoo »

Defiant wrote:Whether it's to establish an Islamic caliphate, drive out foreigners from Muslim lands, frighten governments to change their policies, or kill people who disagree with them, they aren't like Satan or something - they're not trying to tempt or trick you into doing something evil in retaliation.
Ah, I see. That's not what I meant.

They would like us to join them in the muck, which allows them to add weight to their recruitment so that they can continue to terrorize. So perhaps it's not the primary goal of terrorism, it is a sign that terrorism is working.

And let's face it, the "goals" of terrorism are ephemeral often flimsy and disconnected from the acts of terrorism. What terrorism campaign in the last 200-300 years has achieved it's goal and simply stopped because, hey, it worked? And of those (assuming there are some) how typical is that result?
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by El Guapo »

GreenGoo wrote:
And let's face it, the "goals" of terrorism are ephemeral often flimsy and disconnected from the acts of terrorism. What terrorism campaign in the last 200-300 years has achieved it's goal and simply stopped because, hey, it worked? And of those (assuming there are some) how typical is that result?
FWIW terrorism played a significant role in persuading the UK to withdraw from Ireland and Israel. It then clearly stopped in the latter case; obviously there was some disagreement among the terrorists at issue in Ireland as to whether to stop at that point (though that really boiled down to a disagreement about whether they had in fact 'succeeded' at that point).
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Max Peck »

GreenGoo wrote:
Defiant wrote:Whether it's to establish an Islamic caliphate, drive out foreigners from Muslim lands, frighten governments to change their policies, or kill people who disagree with them, they aren't like Satan or something - they're not trying to tempt or trick you into doing something evil in retaliation.
Ah, I see. That's not what I meant.

They would like us to join them in the muck, which allows them to add weight to their recruitment so that they can continue to terrorize. So perhaps it's not the primary goal of terrorism, it is a sign that terrorism is working.

And let's face it, the "goals" of terrorism are ephemeral often flimsy and disconnected from the acts of terrorism. What terrorism campaign in the last 200-300 years has achieved it's goal and simply stopped because, hey, it worked? And of those (assuming there are some) how typical is that result?
It's hard to say, because when they win they are freedom fighters instead of terrorists. ;)
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Holman
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Holman »

Two interviews just out.

A short one with Barney Frank at Slate, just because he's always fun:
Barnie Frank is not impressed with Bernie Sanders.

A long one with President Obama in The Atlantic:
The Obama Doctrine, by Jeffrey Goldberg.
I need to make time to read this.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Kraken »

The Obama piece in the Atlantic is quite good. Whoever occupies the WH next (assuming it isn't Sanders) -- the hawkish Clinton, the erratic Trump, Cruz the Crusader, or some dark horse -- is going to make us nostalgic for this kind of nuanced, thoughtful foreign policy. For those who won't take the considerable time to read it, this is a good summation:
Obama has come to a number of dovetailing conclusions about the world, and about America’s role in it. The first is that the Middle East is no longer terribly important to American interests. The second is that even if the Middle East were surpassingly important, there would still be little an American president could do to make it a better place. The third is that the innate American desire to fix the sorts of problems that manifest themselves most drastically in the Middle East inevitably leads to warfare, to the deaths of U.S. soldiers, and to the eventual hemorrhaging of U.S. credibility and power. The fourth is that the world cannot afford to see the diminishment of U.S. power. Just as the leaders of several American allies have found Obama’s leadership inadequate to the tasks before him, he himself has found world leadership wanting: global partners who often lack the vision and the will to spend political capital in pursuit of broad, progressive goals, and adversaries who are not, in his mind, as rational as he is. Obama believes that history has sides, and that America’s adversaries—and some of its putative allies—have situated themselves on the wrong one, a place where tribalism, fundamentalism, sectarianism, and militarism still flourish. What they don’t understand is that history is bending in his direction.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Max Peck »

The Panama Papers
A huge leak of confidential documents has revealed how the rich and powerful use tax havens to hide their wealth. Eleven million documents were leaked from one of the world's most secretive companies, Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca. They show how Mossack Fonseca has helped clients launder money, dodge sanctions and evade tax. The company says it has operated beyond reproach for 40 years and has never been charged with criminal wrong-doing.

The documents show links to 72 current or former heads of state in the data, including dictators accused of looting their own countries. They were obtained by the German newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung and shared with the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ). BBC Panorama and The Guardian are among 107 media organisations in 78 countries that have been analysing the documents. The BBC does not know the identity of the source who provided them.

Gerard Ryle, director of the ICIJ, said the documents covered the day-to-day business at Mossack Fonseca over the past 40 years. "I think the leak will prove to be probably the biggest blow the offshore world has ever taken because of the extent of the documents," he said. The data contains secret offshore companies linked to the families and associates of Egypt's former president Hosni Mubarak, Libya's former leader Muammar Gaddafi and Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. It also reveals a suspected billion-dollar money laundering ring that was run by a Russian bank and involved close associates of President Putin.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by GreenGoo »

Max Peck wrote:The Panama Papers
"I think the leak will prove to be probably the biggest blow the offshore world has ever taken because of the extent of the documents," he said.
Lol. That's right, no one knew this was happening before, and now that it's public, it will certainly stop.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Max Peck »

GreenGoo wrote:
Max Peck wrote:The Panama Papers
"I think the leak will prove to be probably the biggest blow the offshore world has ever taken because of the extent of the documents," he said.
Lol. That's right, no one knew this was happening before, and now that it's public, it will certainly stop.
Will it stop? No, but there may be consequences for at least some of the people who have been exposed. :)
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by GreenGoo »

I'm not gonna hold my breath.

Which is not to say that some people might not get hung out to dry, but so what, and it won't stop the ones that don't, and it won't stop the next crop that comes after this one.

We've been over this territory before, plus Zarathud does this sort of thing for a living, albeit it more honestly. :wink:
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by tjg_marantz »

Can't wait for the pirate party to form the new Icelandic government.
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Max Peck
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Max Peck »

GreenGoo wrote:I'm not gonna hold my breath.

Which is not to say that some people might not get hung out to dry, but so what, and it won't stop the ones that don't, and it won't stop the next crop that comes after this one.

We've been over this territory before, plus Zarathud does this sort of thing for a living, albeit it more honestly. :wink:
So, by your reasoning, we should just ignore crime of any kind, right? Because prosecuting any one criminal does nothing to stop all the others. :roll:
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by GreenGoo »

Max Peck wrote:
GreenGoo wrote:I'm not gonna hold my breath.

Which is not to say that some people might not get hung out to dry, but so what, and it won't stop the ones that don't, and it won't stop the next crop that comes after this one.

We've been over this territory before, plus Zarathud does this sort of thing for a living, albeit it more honestly. :wink:
So, by your reasoning, we should just ignore crime of any kind, right? Because prosecuting any one criminal does nothing to stop all the others. :roll:
Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Complete anarchy is the only option.

I'm saying that the rich and powerful have been doing this for...ever. It's hilarious to hear that investigations are starting up based on these documents, because the documents just tell us what we already knew. Why did we have to wait for the documents to surface before we started looking closer at the finances of the rich and powerful?

Look. If, somehow, these (meaning some) guys can be investigated and punished (and that's a big "if". These documents certainly can't be used in a court of law. Not in any western country anyway), it will have been a show for the public so that we'll all settle down and stop looking at the rich and powerful in too much detail again.

Like I said, Zarathud does this for a living, and it's all legal (or at least a gray area). That many take it even farther into illegality is a no brainer. In our last discussion Rip posted another article that was also a "no shit" article, but in it it talks about the untouchability of these guys (not the local millionaires, but the global billonaires, and those with power i.e. above the law).

Naling a few of these guys is going to matter about as much as nailing a couple of street pushers. Should the law be enforced? Of course. Will it make a difference? Not even a little.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Max Peck »

You must be powerfully bored to put so many words into saying "Meh..." Who knew that being a jaded nihilist took such effort. :)

At any rate, the story is the massive document leak, not whether any particular tax cheat or money launderer gets strung up by their heals. It should be entertaining to see to see what happens as the media starts naming names, if nothing else.
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Re: Political Randomness

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Max Peck wrote:You must be powerfully bored to put so many words into saying "Meh..." Who knew that being a jaded nihilist took such effort. :)
Not really. I wrote what I wrote because you suggested my thinking on this could be generalized to all crime (which I supposed it could be, but I don't). My references back to a previous thread were partly because I'm too lazy to write out my opinion in full here, and because there might be interesting things in the other thread, if you wanted to read it. There's no crime in having more than 1 thread on a topic, we constantly go over the same subjects here on OO, and as you said, the leak is the story, although really, the media is treating the contents of the leak as the story. For the average person (who doesn't spend hours each week talking with others about various and sundry subjects) it probably is news.

I write a lot out of habit and a lack of skill at being succinct. Coherency is also not one of my strong points. I don't spend a lot of time fixing it, because if nothing else, it gives others something to read if they want to, and they can ignore me if they don't.

The rich and powerful are mostly above the law, because despite our best efforts, humanity is political by nature, everyone believes they are unique snowflake and those with the money and/or power to dodge the rules will do so, thus reinforcing their perceptions of their own specialness. Absolute power corrupts absolutely, I believe is the term, or at least paraphrased. Keeping human nature in check is a worthy endeavour, but one that is ultimately impossible. That doesn't mean we can't burn some of these guys at the stake though. :wink:

Upon reflection, my cynicism came from my thoughts on the status quo. That the rich and powerful do this is a no brainer. It's fact,and well known fact. So documents leaked that point this out in great detail just makes me go "duh". That officials are jumping up and making a lot of noise about "dealing with this outrage" is hilarious theater to me, since even an ignorant slub like myself could find likely targets for such an investigation without the leak and with only a cursory review of the rich and powerful.

I guess the short version is why would it take leaked documents to have the finances of many rich and powerful people looked at more closely? If you can answer that in a realistic and non-cynical way, I'm all ears.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by GreenGoo »

Max Peck wrote:It should be entertaining to see to see what happens as the media starts naming names, if nothing else.
Sorry, missed commenting on this.

Absolutely. And I will be there with all the schadenfreude I can muster, which is a lot. If I thought any real punishment was going to be metered out to any but a few individuals being scapegoated for the public, I would be downright gleeful.

The 2008 meltdown of the financial sector caused almost entirely by people in the finance sector acting in bad faith, combined with the bailing out of the finance sector, with many people in the sector being not only not punished, but rewarded, has absolutely jaded me. And that's just the low to mid level rich and powerful. Despots and zillionaires are in a class by themselves.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by LordMortis »

GreenGoo wrote:And I will be there with all the schadenfreude I can muster, which is a lot. If I thought any real punishment was going to be metered out to any but a few individuals being scapegoated for the public, I would be downright gleeful.

The 2008 meltdown of the financial sector caused almost entirely by people in the finance sector acting in bad faith, combined with the bailing out of the finance sector, with many people in the sector being not only not punished, but rewarded, has absolutely jaded me. And that's just the low to mid level rich and powerful. Despots and zillionaires are in a class by themselves.
We'll see how it all works out but protecting these sorts of people's assets from taxation in the US while the rest of us do our duty for the common good is at the core of my support for Bernie and my refusal to consider any of the other major players.

I can't speak the taxes and citizens of the world outside the US.

Finally, I wonder how much firms and their partners can be held accountable. This stuff is so outside of my world that I have nothing.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by RunningMn9 »

GreenGoo wrote:I guess the short version is why would it take leaked documents to have the finances of many rich and powerful people looked at more closely? If you can answer that in a realistic and non-cynical way, I'm all ears.
Depends on the circumstances, but as a rule, could US investigators get access to this information without the leak? What about other countries?
And in banks across the world
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by GreenGoo »

RunningMn9 wrote:
GreenGoo wrote:I guess the short version is why would it take leaked documents to have the finances of many rich and powerful people looked at more closely? If you can answer that in a realistic and non-cynical way, I'm all ears.
Depends on the circumstances, but as a rule, could US investigators get access to this information without the leak? What about other countries?
What can they do with it now that they've got it?
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Zarathud »

The U.S. recently required every bank to gather and report information on the beneficial ownership of foreign bank accounts for U.S. citizens, U.S. residents and foreign persons using U.S. banks. Just complying with the rules can be difficult. The purported reason is tax enforcement, but the rules are so invasive it's clear the data can be mined for other purposes.

While Panama is known for being shady, there are legitimate reasons for a law firm's clients to want their privacy. High net worth individuals are targets -- whether from unflattering and misleading newspaper articles to business competition and even criminal enterprise (extortion/kidnapping). The bank, asset, financial and identity information of a millionaire is a high value asset to hack. It's worse with a high profile person or head of state. There should be no surprise that confidentiality and obscurity is highly valued. When Bowie died, the papers were filled with articles about his personal life, business and estate plan. No one wants to be in that situation.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Moliere »

Here's Why You Should Give a Shit About the Panama Papers
We all have content nausea. Every day, hundreds of advertisements scream at us from billboards and phone screens and televisions. We couldn't listen to all the music released in the past six months over the course of our entire lifetimes. We are buried in headlines, overwhelmed by the amount of news we have access to, and unsure, sometimes, of the best place to turn for it. In an era where information is so abundant, it's exhausting to try to consume it all.

The Panama Papers—more so, perhaps, than any piece of news you'll come across in the next decade—isn't an easy story to understand. It'll take a long while to figure it out—the dozens of media outlets covering it haven't even sorted through all the documents they've been given. But it's a story worth spending time on. Because, unlike so much of what this world is inundated with, it is a story that applies to you.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Rip »

So the incident of the Muslim lady getting mowed down by a vehicle wasn't perpetrated by right wingers at all. It was a couple of young muslim men. Which of course is barely being reported unlike the fervor to suggest it was done by "far right" protesters.

:liar:
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by GreenGoo »

For the record, I regularly, and by regularly, I mean occasionally, see "honor" killings making the headlines up here. That's about as Muslim on Muslim violence as you can get.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by GreenGoo »

K.

the last 40+ years I've been operating under the assumption that this has been going on. Now we have papers in public view that illustrate that this has been going on.

For whatever reason, I just don't care about this like I do when I hear about a dirty cop fucking over someone on a traffic stop. Maybe because I could be the next traffic stop, whereas my world doesn't really intersect with the rich and powerful's world (except to have them suction money out of mine).

I don't really know why this is having little impact on my outlook or viewpoint whereas seeing smaller magnitude injustices can get me caring fairly easily. Maybe that's all it is. The magnitude is too large for me to comprehend. But I really don't think so.

By all means punish the wrong doers. Feel free to break up a few "too big to fail" banks while you're at it. I'm not being facetious. Occupy Wall street was as close to a real movement as I've seen in my lifetime. Nothing changed. I suspect that was the final nail in the coffin for my outrage.

.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Rip »

GreenGoo wrote:For the record, I regularly, and by regularly, I mean occasionally, see "honor" killings making the headlines up here. That's about as Muslim on Muslim violence as you can get.

I'm not so disturbed that it wasn't reported as muslim on muslim violence as that it was reported as right wing violence against an innocent muslim when there was not a shred of evidence to substantiate such a claim.

We are entering a time when any crime/tragedy that strikes a muslim is because they were muslim, if it strikes a person of color it was because of that color, or if it strikes a homosexual it was because of that.

If it strikes a right leaning white person, they likely had it coming.

We have taken all that was screwed up with our world and flipped it upside down instead of fixing it. I have little faith that this tendency will result in anything good.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Max Peck »

GreenGoo wrote:
RunningMn9 wrote:
GreenGoo wrote:I guess the short version is why would it take leaked documents to have the finances of many rich and powerful people looked at more closely? If you can answer that in a realistic and non-cynical way, I'm all ears.
Depends on the circumstances, but as a rule, could US investigators get access to this information without the leak? What about other countries?
What can they do with it now that they've got it?
That depends entirely on who "they" happens to be.
The Kremlin said the documents contained "nothing concrete and nothing new" while a spokesman for British Prime Minister David Cameron said his late father's reported links to an offshore company were a "private matter." Financial prosecutors in France announced the opening of a preliminary investigation for aggravated tax fraud. Germany would also “pick up the ball” in the case, a Finance Ministry spokesman said on Monday. Financial market watchdog Bafin is looking into the matter, said a source close to the regulator, which reports to the ministry. Australia, Austria, Sweden and the Netherlands were among other countries which said they had begun investigating the allegations based on more than 11.5 million documents. Banks came under the spotlight over allegations that they helped clients hide their wealth offshore. A White House spokesman said that while he had no specific comment on the leaked papers, "greater transparency allows us to root out corruption."
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by GreenGoo »

Ok, here's a prediction. No news (nothing substantial anyway) for months from the investigative committees. Maybe years. Then, a random rich and powerful person, certainly not a popular celebrity or politician, maybe a foreigner, gets drug over the coals. This happens multiple times in multiple countries. Enough to "satisfy" the majority of the public, who have mostly forgotten about it by then anyway. With the war chests and connections these people have, even the scapegoats don't see justice for years, and when/if they do, a substantial punishment will be announced to the public, which will be reduced around a month later.

You don't have to be clairvoyant to have watched similar things happen on a smaller scale for decades.

I only wished they'd found Trump in that mess. I guess there's still time. Fingers crossed.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Max Peck »

GreenGoo wrote:Ok, here's a prediction. No news (nothing substantial anyway) for months from the investigative committees. Maybe years. Then, a random rich and powerful person, certainly not a popular celebrity or politician, maybe a foreigner, gets drug over the coals. This happens multiple times in multiple countries. Enough to "satisfy" the majority of the public, who have mostly forgotten about it by then anyway. With the war chests and connections these people have, even the scapegoats don't see justice for years, and when/if they do, a substantial punishment will be announced to the public, which will be reduced around a month later.

You don't have to be clairvoyant to have watched similar things happen on a smaller scale for decades.

I only wished they'd found Trump in that mess. I guess there's still time. Fingers crossed.
Perhaps, but I don't think anyone is credibly targeting the wealthy just for being wealthy in all this. The people sifting through the leaked documents are looking for evidence of actual crimes, and if such surface then it will be difficult for the powers that be to just ignore them (the obvious exception being cases like Russia, where the perps have an unshakable grip on state power). Some version of the following crops up in most of the articles I've read on this since the story broke:
While holding money in such firms is not illegal, journalists who received the leaked documents said they could provide evidence of funds hidden for tax evasion, money laundering, sanctions busting, drug deals or other crimes.
In the mean time, it's fun to watch politicians across the world squirm and say they've done nothing wrong, and have nothing to hide about what they were trying to hide. :)
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by GreenGoo »

That they are looking for evidence of crimes in the documents is self evident, I would think.

I assumed my comments would be viewed in the same light.

An article I read implied that there have been no Americans named yet because they are saving the best for last, with the potential for some real bombshells.

Agreed about watching the squirming.
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Kraken »

Reforms will be enacted. Wrists will be slapped. New loopholes will take the place of old. Nothing changes in the end except maybe a windfall for lawyers and accountants.
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Holman
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Holman »

My primary is getting closer. I had two pollsters call while I was on the line with another pollster.
Much prefer my Nazis Nuremberged.
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Defiant
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Defiant »

Not having had time to really read through the whole Panama Papers, is the tl/dr version that it's some major offshore tax haven/swiss bank account type thing? Is it the scale of it that's unusual?

Can they use this information to tax/fine the people who were revealed to be using it to avoid taxes?
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LordMortis
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by LordMortis »

Defiant wrote:Not having had time to really read through the whole Panama Papers, is the tl/dr version that it's some major offshore tax haven/swiss bank account type thing? Is it the scale of it that's unusual?

Can they use this information to tax/fine the people who were revealed to be using it to avoid taxes?
Haven't read through 1.1 million documents? Come on now. Get with the program.

I think it's the exposure to light that's a big deal. I don't know that anyone has exposed the privacy and actual corruption before. This is a very bright light into some very important people's private finances. I imagine different things are going to happen to different people around the world from different nations.
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Zarathud
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Political Randomness

Post by Zarathud »

Swiss banking confidentiality was broken by a prior scandal.

This Panama Papers is a hack of a law firm and exposing its client files. There's nothing illegal discovered yet, but a whole lot of private embarrassing info -- particularly for "reform" politicians.
"If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts." - Albert Einstein
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GreenGoo
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by GreenGoo »

LordMortis wrote:
Defiant wrote:Not having had time to really read through the whole Panama Papers, is the tl/dr version that it's some major offshore tax haven/swiss bank account type thing? Is it the scale of it that's unusual?

Can they use this information to tax/fine the people who were revealed to be using it to avoid taxes?
Haven't read through 1.1 million documents? Come on now. Get with the program.
One of the Russian attempts to distract was someone suggesting that the documents were a hoax/fake.

I was like, lol. Yeah, someone produced 1.1 million fake documents. That is one serious conspiracy.
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Defiant
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Defiant »

LordMortis wrote: Haven't read through 1.1 million documents? Come on now. Get with the program.
Well, I do like to read a good book, but that's ridiculous. I meant reading the coverage. :)
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Defiant
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Defiant »

GreenGoo wrote: One of the Russian attempts to distract was someone suggesting that the documents were a hoax/fake.

I was like, lol. Yeah, someone produced 1.1 million fake documents. That is one serious conspiracy.
Some of those tin foil hat people do have a lot of time on their hands. After all, they spend some of it making tin foil hats. :wink:
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Defiant
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Re: Political Randomness

Post by Defiant »

Zarathud wrote:Swiss banking confidentiality was broken by a prior scandal.

This Panama Papers is a hack of a law firm and exposing its client files. There's nothing illegal discovered yet, but a whole lot of private embarrassing info -- particularly for "reform" politicians.
Given the size of it, I would imagine there is something illegal in something in there - there would almost have to be when it's that scale (not in that it's illegal because of the scale but in that, as an analogy, if you looked at one million people, you're bound to find someone that's a criminal in that group). The question is, is it something small and minor? Is it tax evasion? Is it funding (or being funded by) things like drugs? Dr Evil's giant laser?

So I guess I'll wait and see.
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