BSG X -Eden -Game Over

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:15 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
RMC wrote: Grund

I am a good guy, with bad luck in my scans. But I did find one Cylon, - Grund.
You're only just now voting against me?

Had to confer first?

I had a vote on you yesterday. I forgot to reapply it. But yeah, I just put it on you.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:15 pm

Please pull your votes off of Grund until we talk a little more. I'm not saying we shouldn't kill Grund, but I would prefer with one miss hanging over our heads that we aren't putting him at N-1 without a little more discussion.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:29 pm

Case Against Grund:

1. His scans have been so/so.

Night 0 - Scanned CR - CR was blown up on Night 2
Night 1 - Scanned Remus - Remus became a semi-proven until killed on Night 4
Night 2 - Scanned Trig - Still alive and kicking
Night 3 - Scanned El G - Was killed the same night as the scan (odds 1 in 77)
Night 4 - Scanned Stessier - Finally bagged us a wolf, maybe

Although I do like his scan choices better than RMC's (Scoop? Newcastle? Really?).

2. He could have come out on Day 3 and saved Holman. At that time he had 2 successful scans still living in RW and Trig. He waited until Day 4 to come out, but by then El G was his scan and was killed the same night. I know he says he was worried about an Unagi splody, but that would have still given us 2 provens and a semi proven with Holman if Unagi did kill him. Now we just have a mess. This is an error a good Grund probably wouldn't make.

3. Came out after being accused by RMC on Day 4. He didn't volunteer, he was outed. Usually when people are outed they tend to be bad.

4. Scanned Stess and found Leoben. This is very convenient, but is it too convenient? We have one miss left and he just happens to nail a wolf.
> 10 people left alive last night. Take out RW, Stess, Moliere, RMC and Grund, that leaves 5 to potentially scan. 3 wolves left alive, 3 in 5 or 60% chance to scan a wolf.

5. Grund is clever enough to organize a whole RMC bad cylon and Grund bad cylon show down in order to hem in the village in make a choice one way or another and to let a "trusted" bad cylon take it to the end game. With only one miss left this puts things in a very precarious position for the village.

#2 and #3 are the most damning for him. #5 has me worried.

I can find a few things that says Grund may be telling the truth.

1. His scan choices as far as players go seem reasonable. Not sure I would have scanned those exact same people in the exact same order, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. I know I probably would not have scanned Scoop or Newcastle and especially not in my first 2 scans.

2. Scanned Stess as a Leoben.
> 60% chance to find a wolf if Grund really is Athena. Not bad odds.
> It seems kind of cutesy that Grund is being accused of Leoben and then he finds Leoben. I see Grund as very intelligent, but not cutesy. May not be a big deal, but I found it strange and kind of makes me think it is possible. If I were in his position I would claim Stess as Daniel just to avoid the controversy.
> After Grund announced Stess as Leoben, Stess voted for Grund, but never came out and said Grund was lying. I know if I were accused I would be all over ranting about finding a wolf and trying to clear my name. I think most people would. Stess is just taking it in stride. I know he can't really say anything that would clear himself, but just an odd observation.

3. Remus West was killed last night. He was one of Grund's "provens." I assume it was him instead of Moliere since Moliere was an actual proven and there still could potentially be a Starbuck out there to protect Moliere. But it does seem odd that RW survives for several days when his is usually a high value target only to then get offed when Grund claims he is a human.

4. The whole double coming out of potentially bad cylons with RMC and Grund seems very complicated. Is it something that Grund could mastermind, definitely, but it is a lot of work for RMC that was totally flying under the radar and Grund who had some suspicion on him, but not a lot.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:36 pm

I guess even with all that, it really comes down to 3 possibilities with Grund and RMC.

1. RMC is lying, Grund is not
2. Grund is lying, RMC is not
3. Both are lying bastards

I don't believe RMC. I kind of believe Grund. And based on the fact there are 4 votes on Grund right now, I guess I'm in the minority.

RMC

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:53 pm

bb2112 wrote:I guess even with all that, it really comes down to 3 possibilities with Grund and RMC.

1. RMC is lying, Grund is not
2. Grund is lying, RMC is not
3. Both are lying bastards

I don't believe RMC. I kind of believe Grund. And based on the fact there are 4 votes on Grund right now, I guess I'm in the minority.

RMC

heh. My scans deserve this, but I am not lying.

And why would you put a vote on me when I could explode. I should have scanned you.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 12:55 pm

Be interesting to see what Triggercut does.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:10 pm

RMC wrote:
bb2112 wrote:I guess even with all that, it really comes down to 3 possibilities with Grund and RMC.

1. RMC is lying, Grund is not
2. Grund is lying, RMC is not
3. Both are lying bastards

I don't believe RMC. I kind of believe Grund. And based on the fact there are 4 votes on Grund right now, I guess I'm in the minority.

RMC

heh. My scans deserve this, but I am not lying.

And why would you put a vote on me when I could explode. I should have scanned you.

So, go ahead and explode. We have 8 people, you explode and we go down to 6. Still one miss. Doesn't change the math at all. Besides, how do you plan to kill Doral if we don't lynch him?

And I wish you would have scanned me, then when you conferred with your Cylon friends I would be dead today and Remus would be alive. It would have saved me a lot of reviewing and typing. Besides he is much more convincing than I am. He would probably have the four votes on you instead of Grund.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:11 pm

Indeed!

And RMC it doesn't matter if you blow up.
Go ahead, do it, I dare you.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:11 pm

Darnit BB you stole my thunder.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:12 pm

By the way I have a question for you, what do you think are the odds that both RMC and Grund are bad vs one of them beind bad and one good?

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:17 pm

stessier wrote:Be interesting to see what Triggercut does.

Aye. I assume he waits for moliere. But don't bet on me. I assumed unagi was good.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:19 pm

He shouldn't wait for Moliere - Moliere should wait for him. Moliere is known - we need to figure out how the unknowns feel about things.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:21 pm

Vorret wrote:By the way I have a question for you, what do you think are the odds that both RMC and Grund are bad vs one of them beind bad and one good?

I struggle with this. RMC strikes me as bad. Of the two of them I am way more sure of RMC than I am of Grund. I guess my thoughts are to kick the can down the road until I'm forced to make a decision on Grund. Either that, or you guys are going to make it for me.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 1:37 pm

stessier wrote:He shouldn't wait for Moliere - Moliere should wait for him. Moliere is known - we need to figure out how the unknowns feel about things.

We are n-1, aren't we? If Trig casts the final vote before moliere weighs in, that seems counter intuitive. Given the choice, I'd take moliere's guess at our next move over a combination of any of the five of us... Well, except I'd hold his guess equal to mine but I'm arrogant that way.

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:13 pm

bb2112 wrote:
Vorret wrote:By the way I have a question for you, what do you think are the odds that both RMC and Grund are bad vs one of them beind bad and one good?
I struggle with this. RMC strikes me as bad. Of the two of them I am way more sure of RMC than I am of Grund. I guess my thoughts are to kick the can down the road until I'm forced to make a decision on Grund. Either that, or you guys are going to make it for me.

I am not bad. And if you believe BB we will lose. I am guessing that BB is one of our wolves now as well.

There is no way that Grund and I are both bad. Team wolf had one outed Wolf. Why would they 'out' two wolves and play this silly game of it's me, no it's me. Hell of a gamble, that three wolves would all claim Athena, right?

If I had been better with the scans, this would be easier for everyone, so that is my bad.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:17 pm

Okay...but it is you we're talking about here. I mean, if there is a team that is going to try it, it would be Unagi/Grund/RMC/???

RMC · Post by **RMC** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:18 pm

stessier wrote:Okay...but it is you we're talking about here. I mean, if there is a team that is going to try it, it would be Unagi/Grund/RMC/???

Yeah, well you got me there. Man I want to be a villager the next game. Someone get me Random.org on the phone.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:32 pm

RMC wrote:There is no way that Grund and I are both bad.

Grundbegriff wrote:It's impossible for us both to be evil Cylons.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:32 pm

RMC wrote: I am not bad. And if you believe BB we will lose. I am guessing that BB is one of our wolves now as well.

Well if Grund is evil and the village lynches him, then by all means "scan" me. At that point you and your remaining cylon buddy can kill me and the village can finish you tomorrow. Then it is all about the last cylon.

Or better yet, explode now and take me out as you have threatened to do. One less Cylon to worry about. As Vorret said, DO IT!

My big worry is that Grund is not bad, in which case one more vote and we lose.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:34 pm

LordMortis wrote:
RMC wrote:There is no way that Grund and I are both bad.

Grundbegriff wrote:It's impossible for us both to be evil Cylons.

Interesting.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 2:35 pm

bb2112 wrote:
RMC wrote: I am not bad. And if you believe BB we will lose. I am guessing that BB is one of our wolves now as well.
Well if Grund is evil and the village lynches him, then by all means "scan" me. At that point you and your remaining cylon buddy can kill me and the village can finish you tomorrow. Then it is all about the last cylon.

Or better yet, explode now and take me out as you have threatened to do. One less Cylon to worry about. As Vorret said, DO IT!

My big worry is that Grund is not bad, in which case one more vote and we lose.

Honestly, I think if either grund or rmc are good we're somewhat screwed, Grund because he's one vote away from dying and RMC because well, he's most likely next on the list.

In fact I want to kill him since if he's really Athena he's the worst Seer in the history is Seers and I can't let that slide

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 4:53 pm

Wish Trig was able to check in more often.

Grundbegriff · Post by **Grundbegriff** » Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:43 pm

Once a rookie known as Boomer,
I was mocked as a late bloomer,
They were rather mean to me, as far as crews go.

But when I shot Adama,
"She's no ordinary llama"
Was the shocked refrain one heard from here to Cusco.

They released me, after therapy,
On the promise that I'd wear a bee-
per tracking every place my metal shoes go.

Now my call sign is "Athena"
And I'm human in demeanor.
Adama's cool with me, you're not-- that's how my blues go.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:21 am

stessier wrote:Wish Trig was able to check in more often.

Sorry! DNC bringing out the real, real nutters today at work.

Reading and digesting. Will place a vote soon.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 12:48 am

So....let me try to establish a scenario here. I'm trying to work through this.

Unagi claims to be Athena. He gives us Holman as a Cylon.

We know that Unagi was lying. So why'd he come out? Looks like there was constant pressure on him. Does Unagi think "These guys are going to hang me anyway, might as well buy myself a day or two and get them to kill a human?"

Maybe that's his motivation for what he had to know would essentially be a suicide play.

But OK. It sorta worked as far as that goes, and we even debated on whether to execute him...but we did.

MEANWHILE....

With Unagi still alive, but due to come under heavy suspicion likely leading to his execution, RMC comes out as Athena!

Whee! What's going on if both RMC and Unagi are on the same team? Because this is another potential suicide mission. And, as should be noted, it wasn't like RMC was drawing heavy suspicion when he came out.

But man. Those scans. He scans Scoop, Newcastle, Guapo, and Remus and just by coincidence as he scans each player, they're killed. I suck at statistics that aren't as simply as batting averages, medians and means. But I'm going to go out on a limb that a mathy person would tell me that the odds of a player unknowingly selecting four players on the night when each was killed are spectacularly long. Why make up those scan targets if you're faking though. I mean seriously, if you're a faking Cylon, you can make up any targets you like, you know who the goodguys are.

So let's say for argument's sake that he and Unagi are both on Team Toaster together (I love alliteration when I'm tired and punchy). What's the game here? Even if the badguys have a lead, trading lives 1:1 with us isn't a winning or even good strategy.

And now to complicate things, Grundbegriff comes out and tells us HE's Athena. And then he gives us very plausible scans. And he tells us stessier is Team Toaster as well. Why does Grundbegriff come out as Athena if he's spoofing? What's that game look like?

If we plug him into the badguy team, I think there's a scenario that may fit, but it feels really convoluted and probably isn't worth talking about because it'd just be easily dismissed.

So that's where I am. Let me look at a few more things.

triggercut · Post by **triggercut** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 1:06 am

So here's my decision-making process, knowing full well that either way I'm probably wrong and that's that for the humans.

I went back and read the page where Unagi comes out. Now presumably, we've got the Real Roxanne (Ok, Athena) reading that and reacting to it.

Grundbegriff notes that he is "Cogitating" and withdraws a kill vote on Unagi. Hmm. OK. I guess I can see the slow play maybe.

RMC reacts by sort of seeming to accept Unagi, and then suggesting a line where Helo shoots Holman to test Unagi out.

Grrr. I'm lost.

Moliere · Post by **Moliere** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 2:15 am

stessier wrote:He shouldn't wait for Moliere - Moliere should wait for him. Moliere is known - we need to figure out how the unknowns feel about things.

Sorry, I've been AFK for the last 36 hours when all of this has been going down. I don't see any obvious way to know who is telling the truth between the opposing Athena's. Has anyone with more patience and time than me gone back to track all the voting records of the two Athenas and reviewed their comments about Unagi? Gut instinct tells me that bb2112 is working hard to make sure we don't lynch Grundbegriff.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:38 am

I'll go through it again for you, but it will probably be around lunch time because of all the morning meetings. (No way I'm trying to do it on a tablet.)

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:33 am

Moliere wrote:
stessier wrote:He shouldn't wait for Moliere - Moliere should wait for him. Moliere is known - we need to figure out how the unknowns feel about things.
Sorry, I've been AFK for the last 36 hours when all of this has been going down. I don't see any obvious way to know who is telling the truth between the opposing Athena's. Has anyone with more patience and time than me gone back to track all the voting records of the two Athenas and reviewed their comments about Unagi? Gut instinct tells me that bb2112 is working hard to make sure we don't lynch Grundbegriff.

Yes, I guess I am. I believe RMC is evil and I am having a hard time believing the both are evil theory. Yes, they could be working in tandem to orchestrate this, but it is a lot of work for a situation where they just needed one miss and they were pretty close to winning anyway. Neither had any real heat on them. Maybe that is their ace in the hole to make things more interesting for them, but doesn't it seem a little far fetched? This is not the first time we have seen RMC spoof really well, remember Red Rocket? His scans this game are ridiculous and closely mirrors the insanity of the Red Rocket spoof. Everyone thought it so crazy that he would claim Red Rocket that they let him live. By RMC coming out when he did it just smacks of him trying to discredit a real Athena. I said earlier we are going to have a pick a path and then take a leap of faith. Some of you have chosen the both are evil theory. If that is the case, what is the difference if we lynch RMC first? Unless you really don't think both are evil at all and are piling on Grund for us to get that last miss. It sure seems to me that we are at a stalemate because their aren't any more cylons to pile onto Grund.

I am Starbuck. I know you guys are going to say isn't that convenient, but normally I wouldn't come out at all. I fear we are on our final day, so WTF. And btw, just because I am Starbuck does not give me any more knowledge on the RMC/Grund thing than any other villager, so don't glaum onto what I am saying just because I'm saying it. Think for yourselves.

My protections:

Night 0: Myself
Night 1: Moliere
Night 2: Grund
Night 3: Moliere
Night 4: I am not going to say in case of Doral but I'm kicking myself for not picking RW. I almost did and that would have been sweet.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:35 am

Hmhmmm.
It doesn't really matter if you are or not but I can believe it.

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:39 am

wd Grund

RMC

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:45 am

bb2112 wrote:I said earlier we are going to have a pick a path and then take a leap of faith. Some of you have chosen the both are evil theory. If that is the case, what is the difference if we lynch RMC first? Unless you really don't think both are evil at all and are piling on Grund for us to get that last miss. It sure seems to me that we are at a stalemate because their aren't any more cylons to pile onto Grund.

Not a stalemate. Right now it's 4 on 2 with Trig already having said he was going to go after Grund and not judgement from Moliere. That's pretty far from a stalemate. The difference between lynching Grund first and lynching RMC first is RMC seems more believable and if the game doesn't end today then we re-evaluate tomorrow, wherein I am currently predisposed to lynch RMC tomorrow.

Vorret wrote:Hmhmmm.
It doesn't really matter if you are or not but I can believe it.

It only matters if he lives through the night and protects someone.

Today, not so much.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:46 am

Vorret wrote: wd Grund

RMC

Was 4 to 2... Now it's closer to stalemate....

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:47 am

I'm rereading everything and ... RMC was really trying hard to fly under the radar, putting votes in place that don't really matter, in any case, I'm writing a longer post

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:52 am

Vorret wrote:Hmhmmm.
It doesn't really matter if you are or not but I can believe it.

Yeah, I'm not sure if I were in your shoes I would believe me. Between the 2 Ellen scans and the Leoben scanning, odds were they would have found me, but I guess I am not a high priority target.

Well, I guess I could have been scanned last night. They had 7 chances to find me, only 6 before last night.

The thing I keep thinking about is if my protection of Moliere night 2 was successful, then they still don't know who Daniel is. Unless Daniel was Unagi, he is still alive and we can potentially get another miss at night if they do hit Daniel. Unless RMC's reveal was a way for him to signal that he is Daniel. But then that would be pretty ballsy because he would be countered if the real Athena were alive. Which could be what is happening now.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:54 am

LordMortis wrote:difference between lynching Grund first and lynching RMC first is RMC seems more believable

Please explain how RMC is more believable?

Vorret · Post by **Vorret** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:57 am

N1 : Scoop dies

This doesn't put any attention on anyone, nobody has any odd ties with Scoop except maybe Newcatle but that's far fetched so this might mean we have someone who wants to avoid being labelled (ie: RMC and the Detroit Crew)

D1 : Moliere lynched - RMC was on the tail end of the vote when it was obvious we needed to lynch him

N2 : No night kill, possible successfull protection by BB since he protected Moliere

D2 : Newcastle offed himself, no vote from RMC on anyone

N3 : Kill on Tru1cy, again, no real effect on anyone and the boom on Chaos which confuses people more than anything since it was done "blind"

D3 : Unagi train that RMC wasn't on, again followed by the Holman kill (guess who wasn't voting again!)

N4 : El Guapo rekt

D4 : Unagi has the "oh no I'm sorry" moment, followed by RMC reveal with his completely useless scans

After this I don't really care what happended but RMC really played it like a wolf or like a seer that's trying to not garner any attention my problem with this is he never came out when Unagi claimed Athena.

If he had one good scan, only one, I can understand wanting to nab a 3rd Cylon but he didn't he had a bunch of useless scans and he still elected to remain silent and watch Holman die. That's why I've decided to put my vote on RMC right now.

stessier · Post by **stessier** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:58 am

Oh brother, this is like herding cats.

bb2112 · Post by **bb2112** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:03 am

I just had an idea that could potentially break this gridlock. If we lynch RMC today I can protect Grund tonight. If I die, then Grund is bad and you guys don't have to fear lynching him tomorrow. Crap, no that wont work. The cylons can just target me and make it look like I protected Grund and then that would force the miss tomorrow.

Well, by announcing I am protecting Grund, then I guess I can put us in a protection chicken scenario. Am I protecting Grund, Moliere, or myself? Pretty thin.

LordMortis · Post by **LordMortis** » Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:07 am

bb2112 wrote:
LordMortis wrote:difference between lynching Grund first and lynching RMC first is RMC seems more believable
Please explain how RMC is more believable?

Neither is are great for belief IMO. I'm not thrilled at the notion that they they held their cards when Unagi came out. Hence, the strong leaning that they're both cylon and not athena cylon to boot.

However, RMC comes out voluntarily and points at Grund and that's when Grund's hand is forced.

I am fairly convinced Grund is a bad guy. I'm still on the fence for RMC. Too many coincidences and the hold to have any faith.