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Trump's Cabinet selection

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Lassr
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Lassr » Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:03 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
Remus West wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Remus West wrote:Am I the only one concerned that Scoop lived through the night?
To be frank, I'm more surprised that you lived through the night.
Until this day broke I was just another player with potential to be harmful to the bad guys not a known role. Why would you expect me to be targeted in front of others?
Because Remus
If Chaos is one of the bad guys he may not have wanted to draw attention to himself so close to victory.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Lassr » Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:04 pm

Grundbegriff wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
Lassr wrote:So it doesn't surprise me that you two lived. They knew a hit last night got us down to a must hit today so why risk it.
Well, they wouldn't *know* that, since Putin could be dead (in which case we're at 5-2, and so not a must hit today). They may be operating under that assumption, though.
Odd
indeed
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Chaosraven » Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:32 pm

Lassr wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Remus West wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
Remus West wrote:Am I the only one concerned that Scoop lived through the night?
To be frank, I'm more surprised that you lived through the night.
Until this day broke I was just another player with potential to be harmful to the bad guys not a known role. Why would you expect me to be targeted in front of others?
Because Remus
If Chaos is one of the bad guys he may not have wanted to draw attention to himself so close to victory.
Dude he would have died WAY before last night.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by El Guapo » Fri Jan 27, 2017 12:51 am

Lassr wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
Lassr wrote:So it doesn't surprise me that you two lived. They knew a hit last night got us down to a must hit today so why risk it.
Well, they wouldn't *know* that, since Putin could be dead (in which case we're at 5-2, and so not a must hit today). They may be operating under that assumption, though.
Odd
indeed
What's confusing about this? You said that the wolves *knew* that hitting last night got us down to a must hit today, and were using that statement as a basis for explaining why they didn't target Scoop. But that's not true - if one of the wolves night kills was Putin, then we are at 5 good players and 2 evil (just Trump and Conway). So, the wolves couldn't know that a hit last night would get us down to a must hit today.

But, the probability is that Putin was likely not among the night kills, so they may be assuming he's alive. Though who knows.

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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Lassr » Fri Jan 27, 2017 12:52 am

El Guapo wrote:
Lassr wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
Lassr wrote:So it doesn't surprise me that you two lived. They knew a hit last night got us down to a must hit today so why risk it.
Well, they wouldn't *know* that, since Putin could be dead (in which case we're at 5-2, and so not a must hit today). They may be operating under that assumption, though.
Odd
indeed
What's confusing about this? You said that the wolves *knew* that hitting last night got us down to a must hit today, and were using that statement as a basis for explaining why they didn't target Scoop. But that's not true - if one of the wolves night kills was Putin, then we are at 5 good players and 2 evil (just Trump and Conway). So, the wolves couldn't know that a hit last night would get us down to a must hit today.

But, the probability is that Putin was likely not among the night kills, so they may be assuming he's alive. Though who knows.
indeed
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Grundbegriff » Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:08 am

El Guapo wrote:
Lassr wrote:
Grundbegriff wrote:
El Guapo wrote:
Lassr wrote:So it doesn't surprise me that you two lived. They knew a hit last night got us down to a must hit today so why risk it.
Well, they wouldn't *know* that, since Putin could be dead (in which case we're at 5-2, and so not a must hit today). They may be operating under that assumption, though.
Odd
indeed
What's confusing about this?
I was referring to Lassr's comment, not to your noticing it.

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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Lassr » Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:40 am

which part? Not surprised that Scoop and Remus are alive, or the part where I think the bad guys will assume Trump is alive to play for the victory today.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Lassr » Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:01 am

Lassr wrote:which part? Not surprised that Scoop and Remus are alive, or the part where I think the bad guys will assume Trump is alive to play for the victory today.
let's examine both of those.

It worked out where scoop could have protected himself last night so why would they take the chance. Chaos is part of the 3 left where at least 2 bad guys reside. Either Chaos is a bad guy and chose not to point fingers at himself with a Remus kill or Chaos is not a bad guy and didn't have the choice to knock off Remus.

If I was part of the bad guy team I would assume Putin is alive today to play for the victory, thus not risking going after Scoop. Good thing is, if we make a good choice today, then Scoop can protect Remus tonight and he can scan one of the remaining two (if he is indeed the scanner). Odds are he is. But I do remember Mara Jade. Odds don't mean jack shit when something happens against the odds.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Lassr » Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:44 am

Who has voted? Can we get a vote count?

Grund I believe voted earlier for Chaos. Has Chaos or El Guapo voted. It should be much easier for the top 3 to vote because they KNOW who the bad guys are just not who is who but no amount of analyzing is going to determine that.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Remus West » Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:48 am

I believe that Alex, if alive, should scan Lassr tonight. I agree with Grund that his statement is odd. I do not feel strongly enough about it to lynch someone I have scanned as not being 2 of the 3 possible bad guys.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Moliere » Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:53 am

Votes received
(0) El Guapo:
(1) Grundbegriff: PLW
(0) Scoop20906:
(0) Remus West:
(0) Lassr:
(0) PLW:
(1) Chaosraven: Lassr, Grundbegriff,

Four votes are needed among the seven remaining players.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Lassr » Fri Jan 27, 2017 12:01 pm

 El Guapo 
 


I am torn between Grund and Chaos but feel El Guapo is one of the two in the top group.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Lassr » Fri Jan 27, 2017 12:05 pm

Remus West wrote:I believe that Alex, if alive, should scan Lassr tonight. I agree with Grund that his statement is odd. I do not feel strongly enough about it to lynch someone I have scanned as not being 2 of the 3 possible bad guys.
I'm fine with that but I'd rather he find Putin and not Who is Not Putin.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Chaosraven » Sat Jan 28, 2017 2:45 am

Lassr, do you even realize you keep saying Trump instead of Putin?
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Lassr » Sat Jan 28, 2017 12:35 pm

Chaosraven wrote:Lassr, do you even realize you keep saying Trump instead of Putin?
I see where I did switch it above, but in the explanation I get it right.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Scoop20906 » Sat Jan 28, 2017 3:06 pm

Lassr wrote: El Guapo 
 


I am torn between Grund and Chaos but feel El Guapo is one of the two in the top group.
I disagree. Glad you voted. I'm hanging back until the other suspects cast a vote.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by El Guapo » Sat Jan 28, 2017 3:15 pm

Where I am torn currently, is that I am neither comfortable with the conclusion that Grund and Chaosraven are both wolves, nor with the conclusion that Remus or Scoop is lying. And yet I must pick one.

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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Lassr » Sat Jan 28, 2017 10:17 pm

El Guapo wrote:Where I am torn currently, is that I am neither comfortable with the conclusion that Grund and Chaosraven are both wolves, nor with the conclusion that Remus or Scoop is lying. And yet I must pick one.
So. if you think one of them is lying, you plan on voting for one of them then? It could be possible that they lucked up and spoofed a role that was killed already, plus they came out with no pressure on them, so to me the odds are slim that they are lying. Not impossible but I just cannot bring myself to vote for one of them hoping for a miracle hit.

I cannot imagine you will talk anyone else into voting for one of them either.

To me your statement above reads very wolfish.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Scoop20906 » Sat Jan 28, 2017 11:01 pm

I have never lied about being a major media personality.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Remus West » Sat Jan 28, 2017 11:59 pm

Scoop came out to avoid being lynched.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Lassr » Sun Jan 29, 2017 12:11 am

yep, you are right. Hell this game is going so slow it is hard to remember stuff. that was 16 days ago.

Still at the time there were 2 night deaths so odds are with scoop on that one.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Grundbegriff » Sun Jan 29, 2017 12:21 am

Moliere wrote:Votes received
(0) El Guapo: Lassr
(1) Grundbegriff: PLW
(0) Scoop20906:
(0) Remus West:
(0) Lassr:
(0) PLW:
(1) Chaosraven: Lassr, Grundbegriff,

Four votes are needed among the seven remaining players.
Updated. There's so much traffic that I may have missed something....

I see possibilities, but I don't see any way to decide among them. I'm content to stay in my chosen lane unless that situation changes.

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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by El Guapo » Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:44 am

Lassr wrote:
El Guapo wrote:Where I am torn currently, is that I am neither comfortable with the conclusion that Grund and Chaosraven are both wolves, nor with the conclusion that Remus or Scoop is lying. And yet I must pick one.
So. if you think one of them is lying, you plan on voting for one of them then? It could be possible that they lucked up and spoofed a role that was killed already, plus they came out with no pressure on them, so to me the odds are slim that they are lying. Not impossible but I just cannot bring myself to vote for one of them hoping for a miracle hit.

I cannot imagine you will talk anyone else into voting for one of them either.

To me your statement above reads very wolfish.
If both Remus and Scoop are telling the truth, since I know I am good, that means that Grund and Chaos are Trump / Conway. Unless I am missing something.

If they are not, then Remus and/or Scoop is lying. Which yes, would suggest that I would vote for one of them. Though the question would become who is the liar.

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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Lassr » Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:47 am

El Guapo wrote:Though the question would become who is the liar.
Do you have a plan to figure this out?

Two night kills when Scoop announced to save himself from lynch. Slim odds that Cooper was one of those killed but possible. 3 night kills when Remus came out at the start of the day. No pending lynch threat. Really slim odds to me he is faking since they have no way of knowing if Jill was removed from the game.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Grundbegriff » Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:39 pm

For either scenario (Scoop-liar or Remus-liar), consider what they would gamble and whether they'd be ok with a contesting claim.

1. Scoop-- if he's not Cooper and Cooper had stepped forward, would Team Putin have been ok with that?
2. Remus-- if he's not Jill and Jill had stepped forward....

As for the gamble: would they wager Conway (whose death isn't a victory condition but who counts in the math) or Trump (whose death is a victory condition but who's replaceable if Putin is alive)?

Given that odds of a live Putin are no worse than odds of a live Stein or Cooper, I suppose they would've gambled on Trump's coming forward to spoof.

Which spoof is more palatable from an evil perspective? Jill would out the seer or usurp her authority. That's high- value. Anderson is easy to fake, but outing a living guardian is less useful. Hardly any chance at all that both are faking, so it's interesting that one claimed under duress and the other voluntarily.

Under duress, which lie would you tell? High value or low?
If you were really Jill, would you announce at dawn or wait until "afternoon" to perhaps entrap a spoofer?

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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Remus West » Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:07 pm

I'll withhold my thinking on Grund's post until others have their say.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Lassr » Mon Jan 30, 2017 3:27 pm

Grundbegriff wrote: Under duress, which lie would you tell? High value or low?
If you were really Jill, would you announce at dawn or wait until "afternoon" to perhaps entrap a spoofer?
If I was about to be lynched as a bad guy, I'd shoot for the moon and go high value not knowing if any of them were still alive.
If I were Jill, and I also was a player that people loved to lynch, I would come out sooner rather than wait until a train was started making it harder to prove I am telling the truth and not trying to get out of a lynch.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Lassr » Mon Jan 30, 2017 11:24 pm

:coffee:
The only reason people get lost in thought is because it's unfamiliar territory.

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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by El Guapo » Tue Jan 31, 2017 1:44 am

Grundbegriff wrote:For either scenario (Scoop-liar or Remus-liar), consider what they would gamble and whether they'd be ok with a contesting claim.

1. Scoop-- if he's not Cooper and Cooper had stepped forward, would Team Putin have been ok with that?
2. Remus-- if he's not Jill and Jill had stepped forward....

As for the gamble: would they wager Conway (whose death isn't a victory condition but who counts in the math) or Trump (whose death is a victory condition but who's replaceable if Putin is alive)?

Given that odds of a live Putin are no worse than odds of a live Stein or Cooper, I suppose they would've gambled on Trump's coming forward to spoof.

Which spoof is more palatable from an evil perspective? Jill would out the seer or usurp her authority. That's high- value. Anderson is easy to fake, but outing a living guardian is less useful. Hardly any chance at all that both are faking, so it's interesting that one claimed under duress and the other voluntarily.

Under duress, which lie would you tell? High value or low?
If you were really Jill, would you announce at dawn or wait until "afternoon" to perhaps entrap a spoofer?
Interesting that you call it "Team Putin."

Anyway, I would think that Scoop would spoof Jill if he was lying. Higher value to expose the seer, and/or (if you get lucky) usurp her role. Of course there's an "iocane powder" ruse value for telling the less beneficial lie, but for the most part there's more reward in claiming Jill. I am inclined to think that he is telling the truth, although he's been so quiet this game there isn't much to go on in terms of evaluating him, beyond the role claim.

If Remus is lying, I really doubt that he's Trump. Yes, Trump is theoretically replaceable, but if Putin is dead (and the odds of that are not trivial) and you expose Trump, then you lose the game in one fell swoop. Seems incredibly risky for the wolves to do when they are ahead.

Remus coming out with a spoof first thing in a day is totally plausible - Remus has done that sort of thing in previous games.

Although - if Remus were a wolf and Scoop were not, then spoofing Jill would be a little silly. The wolves would be pretty sure that Scoop was telling the truth (only other possibility is Scooputin, which is unlikely and which they would not want to count on). So, if Remus spoofed Jill and the real Jill then came forward, they would face a tough scenario where: (1) Remus gets lynched, effectively proving the real Jill; and (2) Anderson Scooper probably protected himself, so he's available to protect Jill, letting her get off another (proven) scan.

Seems risky.

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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Grundbegriff » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:41 am

El Guapo wrote:Interesting that you call it "Team Putin."
During my reread, I noticed that Scoop had requested the change and that Moliere had complied. Are you saying you're not a member of the CNN Breaking News team?

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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Grundbegriff » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:44 am

El Guapo wrote:If Remus is lying, I really doubt that he's Trump. Yes, Trump is theoretically replaceable, but if Putin is dead (and the odds of that are not trivial) and you expose Trump, then you lose the game in one fell swoop. Seems incredibly risky for the wolves to do when they are ahead.
It's a go-large move, for if Putin is alive and you expose Trump, then (this far in) you win the game in one fell swoop! Also a non-trivial temptation.

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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Grundbegriff » Tue Jan 31, 2017 9:49 am

El Guapo wrote:Although - if Remus were a wolf and Scoop were not, then spoofing Jill would be a little silly. The wolves would be pretty sure that Scoop was telling the truth (only other possibility is Scooputin, which is unlikely and which they would not want to count on). So, if Remus spoofed Jill and the real Jill then came forward, they would face a tough scenario where: (1) Remus gets lynched, effectively proving the real Jill; and (2) Anderson Scooper probably protected himself, so he's available to protect Jill, letting her get off another (proven) scan.

Seems risky.
Yup. The thing that makes this endgame more interesting than some is that if Scoop and Remus are both clean, then the scenario you describe is happening to the wolves anyhow, but without the exposure! Remus as Jill, if honest, may be protected by Scoop, if honest, and garner a trustworthy scan. So the question deepens: would the wolves anticipate that this endgame might be coming down the pike and go for broke?

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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Lassr » Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:39 am

looks like Scoop has forgotten he's still in the game.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Chaosraven » Tue Jan 31, 2017 2:11 pm

Vote for Chaosraven.

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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Lassr » Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:01 pm

Yo, PLW you around?

Can we end in a stalemate?
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by El Guapo » Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:21 pm

Lassr wrote:Yo, PLW you around?

Can we end in a stalemate?
Nah, it shouldn't come to that. I *would* like to hear from PLW and Scoop before voting, ideally, though I'm gonna go ahead and do it anyway in the next day or so regardless.

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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by PLW » Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:53 pm

I'm still here and still listening, but I haven't heard anything that has changed my mind.

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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Grundbegriff » Tue Jan 31, 2017 7:18 pm

PLW wrote:I'm still here and still listening, but I haven't heard anything that has changed my mind.
Hey! That's my line!

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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Lassr » Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:28 am

someone wake me if this game starts moving.
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Re: Trump's Cabinet selection

Post by Moliere » Wed Feb 01, 2017 11:41 am

Lassr wrote:someone wake me if this game starts moving.
:coffee:
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