Fully agree with this assessment.El Guapo wrote:Not sure that I agree with this. The value of Scoop's plan (setting aside the blunder) was this: he fakes the seer, and by coming out unprompted looks more credible. He can realistically get the village to lynch Archinerd, who (for whatever reason) he suspects to be a special. There are lots of possible upsides here:Holman wrote:I know I might be fixated here, but suspecting Stessier is the only way I can make any sense of Scoop's play.
(1) If Archinerd *is* a special, he's probably eliminated or another
(2) Tigh may well out himself. By coming out second the real Tigh looks less credible; Scoop can probably get him lynched, and if not he can be night-killed or 'sploded.
(3) If Tigh outs himself and Scoop convinces everyone that he's the real Tigh, Scoop could succeed at taking his place, which could basically win the wolves the game.
(4) Worst case scenario Archinerd turns out to be a regular villager, Tigh doesn't reveal himself, the village probably lynches Archinerd Day 3 and Scoop Day 4, whereupon Scoop 'splodes and kills whomever he thinks is the next most likely special.
Scoop's an aggressive player. His claim was rushed (probably contributing to the error), but that's explicable to me based upon the fact that it's essential to the plan that he come out before the real Tigh, who could plausibly reveal himself at the start of any day.
Not to say that Scoop didn't also do it to protect a wolf stessier, just that that really doesn't seem like the only plausible explanation for Scoop's move.
It doesn't have to be a protect stessier play. it can be simply to sow confusion and eat up a day at the bare minimum with his play. Maybe the stessier accuse of archinerd was a signal, maybe not.
-I wonder about the punisher kill; what made them go for him? Did he scream special? Not sure what he said to get the bullet. He's a new player, so that would suggest some sort of familiarity with him. Did he say something to set alarm bells off?
- i wonder if BB's killing was initially to try to set off the detroit accusation paradigm and further confuse things (if so why not kill Cr and really bring down the heat on remus).
-i suspect remus was special; he felt that way. Also he made a math mistake yesterday (forget where/what it was) but i found that to be off and was wondering if he was faking it. It just seemed an obvious blunder and i was thinking he did it deliberately to survive another day. When i read it; I was actually gonna poke him today a bit.
- i suspect grund was zabrek. Simply the way he played. I dont think he would go to the grave as a good special that way.
Suspect list:
TOP TWO
Vorret (obvious reasons)
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Unagi (remember how i keep chirping about him having a tell? and generally i am right but no one listens); the moliere train; plus this is day 4 now he usually puts out more. Plus have i mentioned his tell?
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NEUTRAL
Holman - not sure yet. Wondering if his statements feel forced.
Stessier (he feels off, but it could be not having played with him for a while; more to trending good in the last few days).
The rest
truicy - feels good
CR - not enough posts to get a good read, but am leaning to good...
El guapo - feels good