Political Randomness

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:21 pm

NYT live estimates is giving Jones a 60% chance. Just going to make the Moore victory all that more disappointing.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:21 pm

There is a gender gap in the election. More than half of men are voting for Moore (57 percent), while more than half of women voted for Jones (57 percent). Much of that support for Jones however is from African-American women. White women are still backing Moore with about two-thirds of their votes.

So far, African-Americans make up about 30 percent of the electorate. If that holds, it would surpass the 28 percent of the vote African-Americans made up when Barack Obama was re-elected in 2012. More than nine in 10 black voters are backing Jones.

More voters have a favorable view of Jones (50 percent) than Moore (41 percent).

Of the last-minute deciders — the 10 percent of voters who decided in the last few days — they threw their support behind Moore (56 percent) to Jones (37 percent).

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:22 pm

Oh - make that 74% now.

malchior · Post by **malchior** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:23 pm

tjg_marantz · Post by **tjg_marantz** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:26 pm

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/resul ... v=top-news

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/al ... n-results/

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:34 pm

Whoever wins, it's disgusting that a man like Roy Moore could be a US Senator. He has no business being anywhere near an elected role in our government, and yet the only reason he might lose is because he's an alleged child molester.

This is yet another dark day for the country.

Sepiche · Post by **Sepiche** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:48 pm

About 50% in now and Moore leads in the official count, but the numbers guys are saying the remaining votes skew Jones, the Democratic counties are overperforming, and the Republican leaning counties are underperforming. Jones just might be able to squeak this out.

GreenGoo · Post by **GreenGoo** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:02 pm

msteelers wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:34 pm Whoever wins, it's disgusting that a man like Roy Moore could be a US Senator. He has no business being anywhere near an elected role in our government, and yet the only reason he might lose is because he's an alleged child molester.

This is yet another dark day for the country.

A significant amount of my rage at Drumpf is that he had the gall to think he could be president. There is no accounting for the American public, but he very clearly is not capable of being the president. He's not doing a tenth of what is required of the PoTUS, and the parts he does participate in, he does worse than an average person could do.

Winning is the easy part. Dumbass.

gilraen · Post by **gilraen** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:02 pm

72% of the vote in, and Moore only leads by about 23k votes, with lots of votes from large Democrat-leaning urban areas still unaccounted for.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:07 pm

msteelers wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 10:34 pm Whoever wins, it's disgusting that a man like Roy Moore could be a US Senator. He has no business being anywhere near an elected role in our government, and yet the only reason he might lose is because he's an alleged child molester.

This is yet another dark day for the country.

And even then he probably wont lose. Shit country.

Sepiche · Post by **Sepiche** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:08 pm

Big jump for Jones just now... he's within 3500 with 85% in. Still a ton of votes in the largest 3 cities to count.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:09 pm

Roy Moore leads by 0.5 percentage points over Doug Jones with 85 percent of precincts fully reporting.

Holy mackerel.

Sepiche · Post by **Sepiche** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:15 pm

It just tied up.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:15 pm

538 live blog has jones up by ~ 2,500 votes with 87% reporting.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:15 pm

538 has Jones leading with the still-outstanding precincts likely in his favor.

Sepiche · Post by **Sepiche** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:17 pm

Betting sites have Jones at 90% right now.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:19 pm

Holman wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:15 pm 538 has Jones leading with the still-outstanding precincts likely in his favor.

One caveat i'm seeing is that it's pro-Jones counties left, but it could conceivably be pro-Moore precincts within those overall pro-Jones counties. Though that's not probable, generally speaking.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:22 pm

I was just thinking....whoever wins will probably throw a dinner for their supporters. But if I was running for something Id throw a dinner...maybe meatloaf and homemade stuff....for everyone whether I won OR lost. Even better Id invite all the homeless to come eat a good meal and provide rides for them if needed. I know my type person doesn't win elections and thats a sad thing.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:23 pm

RIght now, per 538, write-ins are 1.6% of the vote, with the vote basically tied.

Kraken · Post by **Kraken** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:25 pm

Wow, a real nail-biter. One naturally expects the Democrat to win the cities, even in AL. Jones might just squeak this out.

If so, Republicans will try every trick in the book to overturn the results. Will Trump deliver an epic tantrum, or will he go sour grapes?

Sepiche · Post by **Sepiche** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:25 pm

AP just called for Jones!

Ralph-Wiggum · Post by **Ralph-Wiggum** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:26 pm

NYT now has Jones as +95%. Now I’m going to start believing they’re fake news when Moore wins this.

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:26 pm

Wow - AP is calling the election for Jones. Vote still looks tied from the vote totals I'm seeing, but presumably it's because it's only Jones areas left, I guess.

Isgrimnur · Post by **Isgrimnur** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:26 pm

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:26 pm

The Associated Press‏Verified account @AP
1m1 minute ago

BREAKING: Democrat Doug Jones wins election as U.S. senator from Alabama. @AP race call at 10:23 p.m. EST. #AlabamaElection #APracecall
70 replies 2,754 retweets 2,082 likes

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:26 pm

It looks like the decisive factor is that black voters turned out and held their ground (and in long lines) despite all efforts to thwart them.

Sepiche · Post by **Sepiche** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:27 pm

If he keeps on this trajectory he's going to win substantially.

RunningMn9 · Post by **RunningMn9** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:29 pm

Go fuck yourself Roy Moore.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:29 pm

Fox News called it for Jones.

tjg_marantz · Post by **tjg_marantz** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:33 pm

Someone give Trump his phone! Quick!

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:33 pm

I mean, it makes sense - Alabama loves their pro-choice democrats.

Wow. Dramatically boosts the democrats chances of winning the Senate in 2018. Wonder if this will spook some GOP senators up for reelection as well. Though I assume that this will also boost GOP leadership's efforts to get a horrible tax bill done before Jones can be seated.

Smoove_B · Post by **Smoove_B** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:35 pm

Can't wait to see the write-in vote analysis.

Let's not give up on Roy Moore yet - Trump could welcome him into his administration now.

Holman · Post by **Holman** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:35 pm

This is a reminder that not every Alabamian is a Deplorable.

And that goes for everywhere else too.

pr0ner · Post by **pr0ner** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:35 pm

Alabama actually did it.

msteelers · Post by **msteelers** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:37 pm

Holman wrote:This is a reminder that not every Alabamian is a Deplorable.

And that goes for everywhere else too.

Not every Alabamian. Just under half is though.

Daehawk · Post by **Daehawk** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:37 pm

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:37 pm

I wonder how much Moore would have won by but for the whole "child molestation" thing.

Combustible Lemur · Post by **Combustible Lemur** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:38 pm

Well damn. Though it's weird we're all this excited that a child molester was defeated in a Senate race. How far we have fallen.

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El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:38 pm

El Guapo · Post by **El Guapo** » Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:40 pm

Combustible Lemur wrote: ↑Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:38 pm Well damn. Though it's weird we're all this excited that a child molester was defeated in a Senate race. How far we have fallen.

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You could also flip it though - of course we're stunned that a pro-choice democrat won a statewide Senate race in Alabama, which voted for Trump by a roughly 30 point margin about a year ago.