El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:14 pm
Orrin Hatch has announced that he's not running for reelection in 2018.
That's been the general expectation, though there were some hints that he was rethinking that decision late last year. I'm torn in that on the one hand, Orrin Hatch is a shithead, so happy to see him go. On the other hand he's an unpopular shithead, so him running for reelection probably would have been the best chance for a surprise democratic Senate pickup.
Regardless, this opens the door for Romney to cruise to a Senate seat, which is the general expectation. IF Romney surprises everyone and decides not to run, it'll be interesting to see who enters the race.
grumpycatgood.jpg
If Romney decides not to run, I'll be interested to see if Evan McMullin goes after this seat. While I don't always agree with his positions, he's seems like a generally sane guy and is a harsh critic of Trump.
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
All indications are that Romney wants to run, FWIW. It'd be a minor political earthquake if he doesn't. My guess is that he'll announce before the end of the week (so that no one else gets any ideas).
Romney has won the seat the moment he announces his candidacy.
But it will still be interesting. Will he go openly NeverTrump (in which case POTUS will be continually attacking him, probably sucking other Republicans in), or will he try to run a Trump-blind race (something the media and his token opponents won't let him easily get away with)?
Holman wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:37 pm
Romney has won the seat the moment he announces his candidacy.
Pretty much.
But it will still be interesting. Will he go openly NeverTrump (in which case POTUS will be continually attacking him, probably sucking other Republicans in), or will he try to run a Trump-blind race (something the media and his token opponents won't let him easily get away with)?
Remember that while Trump won Utah (45%), he's generally very unpopular with Mormons. I really don't think it wouldn't hurt Romney's position here very much to lean towards the anti-Trump end of the spectrum.
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
But it will still be interesting. Will he go openly NeverTrump (in which case POTUS will be continually attacking him, probably sucking other Republicans in), or will he try to run a Trump-blind race (something the media and his token opponents won't let him easily get away with)?
Remember that while Trump won Utah (45%), he's generally very unpopular with Mormons. I really don't think it wouldn't hurt Romney's position here very much to lean towards the anti-Trump end of the spectrum.
Oh, I know. And that's what makes the race interesting nationally.
If the most popular Republican in 2018 is running *against* Trumpism, what do other Republicans do?
Yeah, Utah being prime NeverTrump country, and especially given his past statement on Trump, Romney'll need to be NeverTrump to some extent during the campaign. I assume he'll try to keep it suitably vague, like, "I have deep concerns with how Trump is using the presidency, and as Senator I will exercise proper oversight and hold the president accountable as appropriate. I also will work with him in areas that we share policy priorities."
The other question is whether Bannon can conscript a nutball to run against Romney in the GOP primary. I assume that he will, even though said nutball will almost certainly get crushed.
But it will still be interesting. Will he go openly NeverTrump (in which case POTUS will be continually attacking him, probably sucking other Republicans in), or will he try to run a Trump-blind race (something the media and his token opponents won't let him easily get away with)?
Remember that while Trump won Utah (45%), he's generally very unpopular with Mormons. I really don't think it wouldn't hurt Romney's position here very much to lean towards the anti-Trump end of the spectrum.
Oh, I know. And that's what makes the race interesting nationally.
If the most popular Republican in 2018 is running *against* Trumpism, what do other Republicans do?
Utah's different from most Republican states, I think mainly because (as Skinypupy says), Mormons have never really been big Trump fans. I don't think this tells us anything about what other Republicans will do. Trump's takeover of the GOP generally is 95%+ complete.
Romney becoming senator does slightly increase the odds that he tries to primary Trump in 2020, though, depending on where things stand then. Whether he's thinking about that would also impact what he does in the campaign and in the Senate.
Holman wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:37 pm
Romney has won the seat the moment he announces his candidacy.
But it will still be interesting. Will he go openly NeverTrump (in which case POTUS will be continually attacking him, probably sucking other Republicans in), or will he try to run a Trump-blind race (something the media and his token opponents won't let him easily get away with)?
Romney always bends with the wind. He'll take whatever position he thinks will get the most votes. If he guesses wrong, he'll switch midway. In that sense, Romney's campaign will be a good indication of how toxic Trump really is.
I expect that he'll initially try to keep the prez out of it. That photo of him sucking up to Trump for the SecState job is going to come back and bite him.
With two weeks to spare, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already raised twice as much money online this year as it did in 2015, officials said.
Online donors gave $40.46 million in 2017 as of Thursday morning, easily outperforming the $19.7 million raised online two years ago, the most recent non-presidential election year.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee quickly added 11 more Republican-held districts — long-shot seats that aren’t typically in play — to its existing list of 80 targeted races. Candidates in those newly added seats got a sudden dose of fundraising and organizational assistance, in addition to help with budgeting and media operations.
Holman wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:37 pm
Romney has won the seat the moment he announces his candidacy.
But it will still be interesting. Will he go openly NeverTrump (in which case POTUS will be continually attacking him, probably sucking other Republicans in), or will he try to run a Trump-blind race (something the media and his token opponents won't let him easily get away with)?
Romney always bends with the wind. He'll take whatever position he thinks will get the most votes. If he guesses wrong, he'll switch midway. In that sense, Romney's campaign will be a good indication of how toxic Trump really is.
I expect that he'll initially try to keep the prez out of it. That photo of him sucking up to Trump for the SecState job is going to come back and bite him.
I'm dying to know whether Romney still harbors ambitions of being President. If he does, that would push his incentive to go hard NeverTrump. His best bet at the presidency is to own the NeverTrump corner (which he already does to a significant degree, in part due to a dearth of competitors), and then hope that Trump's popularity continues to drop, and/or that Trump gets impeached (even if he's not removed), and hope that things swing in an anti-Trump direction in 2020 or 2024.
I think Kasich corners the market on "Never Trump" conservatism. He is the AntiTrump Republican candidate. Romney bent a knee when rumors of SecState popped up. I'm not sure he's viable though. The base won't accept his never Trump history and I don't know how the Right get the middle back in the short term.
LordMortis wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2018 4:29 pm
I think Kasich corners the market on "Never Trump" conservatism. He is the AntiTrump Republican candidate. Romney bent a knee when rumors of SecState popped up. I'm not sure he's viable though. The base won't accept his never Trump history and I don't know how the Right get the middle back in the short term.
Kasich's the main rival for the NeverTrump corner, but Romney can get past the Sec State meeting - he can point to his many blistering anti-Trump denunciations, and explain the SecState thing as "I had to consider doing what I could to help guide the country's foreign policy during a likely tumultuous presidency." Especially if he goes hard anti-Trump as a Senator.
That's awesome. Still, though, I really don't think it would be that hard for Romney to get past that. Say that (for example) the Senate winds up split 50/50 after 2018 (which is one of the more likely outcomes). If Romney voted to really unleash the full power of Senate oversight on Trump, he could do a lot of damage to Trump, which I think would more than compensate for this photo.
The only scenario by which a NeverTrumper wins the nomination in 2020 is if Trump is facing impeachment or half of his children have been indicted. Even then, the rump MAGA crowd would resent the betrayal, and Republican enthusiasm would be depressed. Dem enthusiasm, meanwhile, would be surging by definition.
(In short, the things that could help Romney win the nomination would, even more, help Democrats win the election.)
Romney could run in 2024, but a Republican will probably only win then if 2020's post-Trump Democratic president is a spectacular failure. By 2028, Romney will be 81 years old.
Holman wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:13 pm
The only scenario by which a NeverTrumper wins the nomination in 2020 is if Trump is facing impeachment or half of his children have been indicted. Even then, the rump MAGA crowd would resent the betrayal, and Republican enthusiasm would be depressed. Dem enthusiasm, meanwhile, would be surging by definition.
Romney could run in 2024, but a Republican will probably only win then if 2020's Democratic president is a spectacular failure. By 2028, Romney will be 81 years old.
I think he knows the senate is his best bet.
I agree, but I think that said scenario is plausible. It's not the most likely scenario, but I think it represents Romney's best chance of becoming president (and not only that, but he could get to be the President Who Saved The Republic).
Now at a record number of Republican retirements, ahead of the midterms. Biggest news on that is that Ed Royce from California (one of the GOP House chairmen) is retiring. His district went Romney +3 in 2012 and Clinton +9 in 2016. Sounds like he was popular enough and had a lot of money, so his retiring is a big deal - probably moves the seat from "lean Republican" to "lean Democrat".
FWIW I doubt Arpaio has a good chance of winning in 2018. Insofar as he occupies the same "far right wingut" lane as Kelli Ward, I wonder if he'll take votes mainly from her and give Rep. McSally a better shot in the GOP primary. But it's also one of those situations where I kind of hope that Arpaio gets the GOP nomination because that would probably give the democrats their best shot at winning the seat in the general, but on the other hand you risk, well, Senator Arpaio.
Well on the positive side he's 85 years old. He can only do damage for so long.
Capitalism tries for a delicate balance: It attempts to work things out so that everyone gets just enough stuff to keep them from getting violent and trying to take other people’s stuff.
El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:09 pm
FWIW I doubt Arpaio has a good chance of winning in 2018. Insofar as he occupies the same "far right wingut" lane as Kelli Ward, I wonder if he'll take votes mainly from her and give Rep. McSally a better shot in the GOP primary. But it's also one of those situations where I kind of hope that Arpaio gets the GOP nomination because that would probably give the democrats their best shot at winning the seat in the general, but on the other hand you risk, well, Senator Arpaio.
I had no idea that there was a "mainstream" Republican running for Senate in Arizona (in the form of McSally) - I thought they were all far right types like Ward, Brittain, and now Arpaio.
El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:09 pm
But it's also one of those situations where I kind of hope that Arpaio gets the GOP nomination because that would probably give the democrats their best shot at winning the seat in the general, but on the other hand you risk, well, Senator Arpaio.
My hot take is that I really want a signal to the world that what happened with Moore isn't some one off (besides President Fucking Moron) and that the danger isn't past. But the downside risk is admittedly pretty bad.
El Guapo wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:09 pm
FWIW I doubt Arpaio has a good chance of winning in 2018. Insofar as he occupies the same "far right wingut" lane as Kelli Ward, I wonder if he'll take votes mainly from her and give Rep. McSally a better shot in the GOP primary. But it's also one of those situations where I kind of hope that Arpaio gets the GOP nomination because that would probably give the democrats their best shot at winning the seat in the general, but on the other hand you risk, well, Senator Arpaio.
I had no idea that there was a "mainstream" Republican running for Senate in Arizona (in the form of McSally) - I thought they were all far right types like Ward, Brittain, and now Arpaio.
I don't *think* she has officially announced yet. But she's widely expected to run, and she has an announcement scheduled for Friday, so... she's running.
Apparently Craig Brittain, the revenge porn dudebro who's in the Republican primary for US Senate in Arizona, is holding a campaign rally at the end of the month.
The list of purported attendees is something, ranging from Milo and Tucker Carlson to Snoop Dog and Run The Jewels.
Of course, this is turning out to be a scam, as both James Damore (the author of that infamous Google memo) has said he won't be there, and RTJ has categorically denied it.
Darrell Issa is retiring. Not too surprising - since he won in 2016 by something miniscule like 500 votes or so, he'd be presumptively dead in the water in 2018.
A former Arizona sheriff running for Senate -- who was once convicted for racially profiling Latinos -- said if President Donald Trump supported a bill allowing thousands of young undocumented immigrants to stay in the country, he would back the legislation as well.
"Well, first of all, if I was a senator now and the President really wanted this, I probably would back him up on it because I really do respect his judgment," Joe Arpaio, a Republican, told CNN's Kyung Lah. "I have a lot issues where I support the President."
A former Arizona sheriff running for Senate -- who was once convicted for racially profiling Latinos -- said if President Donald Trump supported a bill allowing thousands of young undocumented immigrants to stay in the country, he would back the legislation as well.
"Well, first of all, if I was a senator now and the President really wanted this, I probably would back him up on it because I really do respect his judgment," Joe Arpaio, a Republican, told CNN's Kyung Lah. "I have a lot issues where I support the President."
The fact that we live in a world that requires me to spend a nanosecond of attention on what Joe Arpaio thinks about anything pisses me off.
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
A federal election filing, made on Thursday, confirmed Manning’s intention to run in the November elections as a Democrat.
That would range her against Ben Cardin, the senior senator from Maryland who has served since 2007. The senior Democrat on the Senate foreign affairs committee, Cardin has emerged as a key party voice on investigations into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election.
Smoove_B wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:41 pm
Chelsea Manning running for Senate this November.
A federal election filing, made on Thursday, confirmed Manning’s intention to run in the November elections as a Democrat.
That would range her against Ben Cardin, the senior senator from Maryland who has served since 2007. The senior Democrat on the Senate foreign affairs committee, Cardin has emerged as a key party voice on investigations into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election.
Smoove_B wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:41 pm
Chelsea Manning running for Senate this November.
A federal election filing, made on Thursday, confirmed Manning’s intention to run in the November elections as a Democrat.
That would range her against Ben Cardin, the senior senator from Maryland who has served since 2007. The senior Democrat on the Senate foreign affairs committee, Cardin has emerged as a key party voice on investigations into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election.
Out of morbid curiosity, I looked this story up on Fox News. It was surprisingly awkward to read an article that went to such lengths to avoid using any pronouns.
Adam M. Jarchow is an American attorney and politician.
From Clear Lake, Wisconsin, Jarchow received his bachelor's degree from University of Florida and his law degree from University of Florida College of Law. He practiced law in Florida and Minnesota before returning to Wisconsin to practice law in New Richmond, Wisconsin
Patty Schachtner defeated Republican state Rep. Adam Jarchow for an open state Senate seat Tuesday in an upset victory for struggling Wisconsin Democrats, signaling voter anger toward President Donald Trump that could cost the GOP more legislative seats in the fall elections.
Jarchow tweeted his concession to Schachtner late Tuesday evening, with returns nearly complete across five counties and Schachtner leading by more than 1,600 votes. Schachtner, the St. Croix County medical examiner and a Somerset school board member, had entered the race in northwestern Wisconsin’s traditionally conservative 10th Senate District as the clear underdog.
The district has trended conservative for years. Republican Sheila Harsdorf held the Senate seat for 16 years before she resigned in November to become Gov. Scott Walker’s agriculture secretary and every county in the district voted for Trump in 2016. Jarchow is in the middle of his third term representing the area in the Assembly and had built a formidable base.
Last edited by Isgrimnur on Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:29 am, edited 2 times in total.
