2024 Fundraising - $1192 / $2000 CDN for the year, June/July Renewal. Paypal Donation Link US dollars
NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
Moderators: Bakhtosh, EvilHomer3k
- ImLawBoy
- Forum Admin
- Posts: 15023
- Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:49 pm
- Location: Chicago, IL
- Contact:
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
My strategy (Which has won in the past! Guarantee of future performance!) has always been to go with my gut and not worry too much about the details. I follow Michigan closely, the Big Ten somewhat, and I otherwise just see some scores and highlights, but I have a general idea of which teams and conferences I think are overrated, and I pick against them. The 12-5 upset is always popular, and I think there's some method behind it (since the 12 seeds tend to be the best of the auto-bid leagues, who may be underseeded a bit, and the 5 seeds are often puzzling major conference teams who might be overseeded a bit), so I usually pick one or two of those (but not any more than that). My brackets get filled out in 15 minutes - it's too random to spend any more time than that on them.
That's my purse! I don't know you!
- Isgrimnur
- Posts: 82569
- Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Chookity pok
- Contact:
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
Upset statistics
16 vs. 1 - 0%
15 vs. 2 - 6.06%
14 vs. 3 - 15.9%
13 vs. 4 - 19.7%
12 vs. 5 - 35.61%
11 vs. 6 - 37.12%
16 vs. 1 - 0%
15 vs. 2 - 6.06%
14 vs. 3 - 15.9%
13 vs. 4 - 19.7%
12 vs. 5 - 35.61%
11 vs. 6 - 37.12%
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- Ralph-Wiggum
- Posts: 17449
- Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:51 am
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
In most tournaments, you'll often see upsets in the 5/12 games. And Pac-12 teams always flame out early.
Black Lives Matter
- Isgrimnur
- Posts: 82569
- Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Chookity pok
- Contact:
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
With the historical odds being 35.61% and four games per toruney, the odds of NOT seeing one in any given year are (64.39%)^4, or 17.19%Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:36 pm In most tournaments, you'll often see upsets in the 5/12 games. And Pac-12 teams always flame out early.
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- Ralph-Wiggum
- Posts: 17449
- Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:51 am
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
But the point is that the 35.61% historical odds is a good bit higher than you might expect for games where there should be (based on seeding, at least) a wide disparity between the two teams in talent.Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:38 pmWith the historical odds being 35.61% and four games per toruney, the odds of NOT seeing one in any given year are (64.39%)^4, or 17.19%Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:36 pm In most tournaments, you'll often see upsets in the 5/12 games. And Pac-12 teams always flame out early.
Black Lives Matter
- Isgrimnur
- Posts: 82569
- Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Chookity pok
- Contact:
- Skinypupy
- Posts: 20453
- Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 10:12 am
- Location: Utah
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
How the hell does ASU get into a play-in game? Yes, they had two good early season wins (Xavier and Kansas). They then proceeded to go 8-10 in conference, finish 9th, and lose in the first round of the conference tourney.
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
- Ralph-Wiggum
- Posts: 17449
- Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:51 am
- Isgrimnur
- Posts: 82569
- Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Chookity pok
- Contact:
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
Arizona Wildcats and Red Raiders!
It's almost as if people are the problem.
- Ralph-Wiggum
- Posts: 17449
- Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:51 am
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
Interestingly and probably not coincidentally, none of the three bubble teams that were/are involved in the FBI investigation (OSU, USC, and Louisville) got in to the tournament. One could easily argue that OSU had the better resume than, say, Oklahoma (and beat them twice) which got a bid.
Black Lives Matter
- Remus West
- Posts: 33595
- Joined: Mon May 09, 2005 5:39 pm
- Location: Not in Westland
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
Is anyone doing an OO bracket challenge?
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
- Moliere
- Posts: 12380
- Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2006 10:57 am
- Location: Walking through a desert land
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
Thank you. I filled out my office bracket with the top 4 winning the first round. After that I started picking random upsets about 1/3 of the time if the seeding was close.Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:12 pm Upset statistics
16 vs. 1 - 0%
15 vs. 2 - 6.06%
14 vs. 3 - 15.9%
13 vs. 4 - 19.7%
12 vs. 5 - 35.61%
11 vs. 6 - 37.12%
"The world is suffering more today from the good people who want to mind other men's business than it is from the bad people who are willing to let everybody look after their own individual affairs." - Clarence Darrow
- Isgrimnur
- Posts: 82569
- Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Chookity pok
- Contact:
- Pyperkub
- Posts: 23763
- Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2004 5:07 pm
- Location: NC- that's Northern California
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
The only time a 16 has beaten a 1 was in the Women's Tourney, and that was a Stanford team dependent on having the best player in Women's basketball and that player tore her ACL during practice after the selection/seeding was announced, but before the games started.Isgrimnur wrote: ↑Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:12 pm Upset statistics
16 vs. 1 - 0%
15 vs. 2 - 6.06%
14 vs. 3 - 15.9%
13 vs. 4 - 19.7%
12 vs. 5 - 35.61%
11 vs. 6 - 37.12%
I think it will take something similar before it happens to a Men's team.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- Pyperkub
- Posts: 23763
- Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2004 5:07 pm
- Location: NC- that's Northern California
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
I'll throw one up if there's interest - it seemed like there were only about 5 of us in it last time I did so.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- Pyperkub
- Posts: 23763
- Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2004 5:07 pm
- Location: NC- that's Northern California
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
Definitely a coincidence - after all, Auburn and Arizona did just fine, and while the case could be made for Arizona as a 3 seed, I don't think their resume (like the rest of the Pac-12) warranted it. Auburn's seed plummeted (like their team) after the injuries.Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:26 am Interestingly and probably not coincidentally, none of the three bubble teams that were/are involved in the FBI investigation (OSU, USC, and Louisville) got in to the tournament. One could easily argue that OSU had the better resume than, say, Oklahoma (and beat them twice) which got a bid.
As to everyone bitching and moaning about Notre Dame on the selection shows, they didn't show me enough while they were healthy. They had 3 shots at the big boys in the ACC with Colson healthy, and whiffed all 3 times. IMHO, they needed to get one of those scalps to earn their way in.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- Ralph-Wiggum
- Posts: 17449
- Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:51 am
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
Everyone wanted Notre Dame just based on potential and early season play. They did not look impressive at all to me in the games after Colson came back from injury.
Black Lives Matter
- ImLawBoy
- Forum Admin
- Posts: 15023
- Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:49 pm
- Location: Chicago, IL
- Contact:
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
Anything that upsets Notre Dame fans is OK by me.
I haven't seen enough to suggest to me that there was a conspiracy (and I tend to be very skeptical of conspiracies to begin with), but this argument doesn't do much for me. Arizona and Auburn weren't even close to the bubble, so they couldn't get snubbed. USC was pretty obviously better than, say, Syracuse, and the OSU-OU situation is also a bit jarring. The fact that the committee couldn't snub some of the problem children doesn't mean that they didn't snub those that were snubbable.Pyperkub wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:34 pmDefinitely a coincidence - after all, Auburn and Arizona did just fine, and while the case could be made for Arizona as a 3 seed, I don't think their resume (like the rest of the Pac-12) warranted it. Auburn's seed plummeted (like their team) after the injuries.Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:26 am Interestingly and probably not coincidentally, none of the three bubble teams that were/are involved in the FBI investigation (OSU, USC, and Louisville) got in to the tournament. One could easily argue that OSU had the better resume than, say, Oklahoma (and beat them twice) which got a bid.
That's my purse! I don't know you!
- pr0ner
- Posts: 17436
- Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 3:00 pm
- Location: Northern Virginia, VA
- Contact:
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
So what did Oklahoma do to deserve to get in? They closed out their season going 2-8.Pyperkub wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:34 pmDefinitely a coincidence - after all, Auburn and Arizona did just fine, and while the case could be made for Arizona as a 3 seed, I don't think their resume (like the rest of the Pac-12) warranted it. Auburn's seed plummeted (like their team) after the injuries.Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:26 am Interestingly and probably not coincidentally, none of the three bubble teams that were/are involved in the FBI investigation (OSU, USC, and Louisville) got in to the tournament. One could easily argue that OSU had the better resume than, say, Oklahoma (and beat them twice) which got a bid.
As to everyone bitching and moaning about Notre Dame on the selection shows, they didn't show me enough while they were healthy. They had 3 shots at the big boys in the ACC with Colson healthy, and whiffed all 3 times. IMHO, they needed to get one of those scalps to earn their way in.
Hodor.
- Pyperkub
- Posts: 23763
- Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2004 5:07 pm
- Location: NC- that's Northern California
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
ASU was just about as bad, but they yanked the "recent" performance portion of the selection criteria, at least for getting in. I think that was mostly done to get teams to schedule better pre-conference matchups (if you'll recall, Syracuse used to routinely open 18-0/19-1 before rolling in at something like 26-9 due to playing a ton of easy games at home to start the season (and since they sell out the Carrier Dome at 34k+, why not if there was no penalty).pr0ner wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:21 pmSo what did Oklahoma do to deserve to get in? They closed out their season going 2-8.Pyperkub wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:34 pmDefinitely a coincidence - after all, Auburn and Arizona did just fine, and while the case could be made for Arizona as a 3 seed, I don't think their resume (like the rest of the Pac-12) warranted it. Auburn's seed plummeted (like their team) after the injuries.Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:26 am Interestingly and probably not coincidentally, none of the three bubble teams that were/are involved in the FBI investigation (OSU, USC, and Louisville) got in to the tournament. One could easily argue that OSU had the better resume than, say, Oklahoma (and beat them twice) which got a bid.
As to everyone bitching and moaning about Notre Dame on the selection shows, they didn't show me enough while they were healthy. They had 3 shots at the big boys in the ACC with Colson healthy, and whiffed all 3 times. IMHO, they needed to get one of those scalps to earn their way in.
So, ignore the close-out. Focus on the true road wins early in the season - Oregon, TCU, USC, Wichita St, as well as the home wins over TCU, Kansas and Texas Tech.
FWIW, I think they may tweak this a bit, as both USC and Oregon were not good early in the season, and I think Wichita St was a bit shaky as well.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- Ralph-Wiggum
- Posts: 17449
- Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:51 am
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
I don't think Oklahoma really did anything to get in over some of teams that were left out. But the committee clearly didn't want to leave Trae Young out of the tournament in his (almost certain) only year of college basketball.
Black Lives Matter
- Pyperkub
- Posts: 23763
- Joined: Mon Dec 13, 2004 5:07 pm
- Location: NC- that's Northern California
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
I was stunned Oklahoma got in (as well as Syracuse). I wasn't quite as stunned ASU got in, but those were the tweaks the committee had made to the selection criteria this year and make some logical, on paper, sense, if not necessarily the eye-test (which kicks them all out, and puts USC in, IMHO - but I still would have left Notre Dame out, due to that lack of a real, quality win after everyone got back.Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:17 pm I don't think Oklahoma really did anything to get in over some of teams that were left out. But the committee clearly didn't want to leave Trae Young out of the tournament in his (almost certain) only year of college basketball.
Black Lives definitely Matter Lorini!
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Also: There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- Skinypupy
- Posts: 20453
- Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 10:12 am
- Location: Utah
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
I’ve never seen Trae Young play, and yet find myself completely sick of him. Felt like every ESPN alert I got during the season was something to do with him. “Trae Young and Oklahoma take on Podunk State!” “Watch Trae Young and Oklahoma battle OSU on ESPN”. “Trae Young scores 30 as Oklahoma drops another conference game to TCU”
We get it, he’s a good player on a shitty team. I don’t need updates every time he steps on the floor.
We get it, he’s a good player on a shitty team. I don’t need updates every time he steps on the floor.
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
- Remus West
- Posts: 33595
- Joined: Mon May 09, 2005 5:39 pm
- Location: Not in Westland
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
I'd be in. Anyone else?
Pyperkub
Remus West
?
?
?
?
?
?
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
- Ralph-Wiggum
- Posts: 17449
- Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:51 am
- Ralph-Wiggum
- Posts: 17449
- Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:51 am
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
I should’ve listened to my own advice when filling out my brackets...Ralph-Wiggum wrote:And Pac-12 teams always flame out early.
Black Lives Matter
- Isgrimnur
- Posts: 82569
- Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Chookity pok
- Contact:
- Skinypupy
- Posts: 20453
- Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 10:12 am
- Location: Utah
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
I kinda thought all the controversy would galvanize an Arizona team that has a ton of talent, and had them making a run to the Elite 8.
Or not.
Or not.
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
- ImLawBoy
- Forum Admin
- Posts: 15023
- Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:49 pm
- Location: Chicago, IL
- Contact:
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
I had Arizona losing to Kentucky in the next round anyway, so I welcome the chaos!
That's my purse! I don't know you!
- Ralph-Wiggum
- Posts: 17449
- Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:51 am
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
Is it really arguable anymore that Sean Miller isn't a terrible tournament coach? His teams always under-perform based on their talent and seeding. His main ability as a coach is recruiting, but of course that may be because he pays his players 100K.
Black Lives Matter
- Skinypupy
- Posts: 20453
- Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 10:12 am
- Location: Utah
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
Seen this morning:Ralph-Wiggum wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:29 amI should’ve listened to my own advice when filling out my brackets...Ralph-Wiggum wrote:And Pac-12 teams always flame out early.
It's almost like the committee picked the 1st (AZ), 4th (UCLA), and 9th (ASU) best teams to represent the conference…“With Arizona’s loss to Buffalo, the Pac-12 has officially made history. (Not the good kind.) Per ESPN Stats and Info, no major conference has failed to send a team to the round of 32 since the formation of the Big 12 in 1996-97. The 2018 Pac-12 is the first of its kind.” – ESPN John Gasaway.
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
- ImLawBoy
- Forum Admin
- Posts: 15023
- Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:49 pm
- Location: Chicago, IL
- Contact:
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
I'm not sure if anyone stayed up to watch it, but if you missed the Michigan-Montana game, consider yourself lucky. If James Naismith had foreseen that game, he likely would have burned his peach baskets and gone into another field. At one point, Montana went over 10 minutes without a field goal, and Michigan still couldn't pull away.
On the bright side, Michigan struggled in its first game of the Big Ten Tournament, but got rolling in the next game (and throughout).
On the bright side, Michigan struggled in its first game of the Big Ten Tournament, but got rolling in the next game (and throughout).
That's my purse! I don't know you!
- Skinypupy
- Posts: 20453
- Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 10:12 am
- Location: Utah
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
Mrs. Skinypupy and I went to a play last night, and were listening to that game on the radio on the way home. We got from the theater to our house - a 25 minute drive - without a single point being scored by either team. It sounded absurd.ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:26 am I'm not sure if anyone stayed up to watch it, but if you missed the Michigan-Montana game, consider yourself lucky. If James Naismith had foreseen that game, he likely would have burned his peach baskets and gone into another field. At one point, Montana went over 10 minutes without a field goal, and Michigan still couldn't pull away.
On the bright side, Michigan struggled in its first game of the Big Ten Tournament, but got rolling in the next game (and throughout).
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
- Moliere
- Posts: 12380
- Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2006 10:57 am
- Location: Walking through a desert land
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
So far I am 14 out of 16.
"The world is suffering more today from the good people who want to mind other men's business than it is from the bad people who are willing to let everybody look after their own individual affairs." - Clarence Darrow
- ImLawBoy
- Forum Admin
- Posts: 15023
- Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:49 pm
- Location: Chicago, IL
- Contact:
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
Part of that was likely due to an extensive timeout while they tried to fix the clocks, which had apparently died from boredom.Skinypupy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:53 amMrs. Skinypupy and I went to a play last night, and were listening to that game on the radio on the way home. We got from the theater to our house - a 25 minute drive - without a single point being scored by either team. It sounded absurd.ImLawBoy wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 11:26 am I'm not sure if anyone stayed up to watch it, but if you missed the Michigan-Montana game, consider yourself lucky. If James Naismith had foreseen that game, he likely would have burned his peach baskets and gone into another field. At one point, Montana went over 10 minutes without a field goal, and Michigan still couldn't pull away.
On the bright side, Michigan struggled in its first game of the Big Ten Tournament, but got rolling in the next game (and throughout).
That's my purse! I don't know you!
- Skinypupy
- Posts: 20453
- Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 10:12 am
- Location: Utah
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
- Isgrimnur
- Posts: 82569
- Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Chookity pok
- Contact:
- Remus West
- Posts: 33595
- Joined: Mon May 09, 2005 5:39 pm
- Location: Not in Westland
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
A kid that plays for RI graduated from the school I teach at so I had the game on. I was sick of hearing Trae Young by the end of the first minute having already heard it 60 times. Kid can play offense but sucks on defense. Truly good players can get it done on both ends of the court.Skinypupy wrote: ↑Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:11 pm I’ve never seen Trae Young play, and yet find myself completely sick of him. Felt like every ESPN alert I got during the season was something to do with him. “Trae Young and Oklahoma take on Podunk State!” “Watch Trae Young and Oklahoma battle OSU on ESPN”. “Trae Young scores 30 as Oklahoma drops another conference game to TCU”
We get it, he’s a good player on a shitty team. I don’t need updates every time he steps on the floor.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” - H.L. Mencken
- Skinypupy
- Posts: 20453
- Joined: Tue Dec 07, 2004 10:12 am
- Location: Utah
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
4/13 matchup is the new 5/12.
When darkness veils the world, four Warriors of Light shall come.
- The Meal
- Posts: 27997
- Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:33 pm
- Location: 2005 Stanley Cup Champion
Re: NCAA basketball 2017 - 2018
My South bracket is currently perfect (picked both Buffalo and Loyola).
I'm 3/5 in the West (mistakes were both S.D. States).
3/6 in the East (missing on SFA, VA Tech, and Wichata State, whom I had getting two wins).
In the Midwest I'm 3/4 (missing on NC State).
So far just the one two-game winner out early. In the pool I'm in you multiply your round number with the seed for points for each winner you pick. I only went heavy with upsets in the first round, but I went with a UM/MSU final (for the absurdity of it). We'll see how it goes. I had a coworker pick UCLA for the final 4 (they didn't get out of the play-in round which wasn't part of the pool, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ).
I'm 3/5 in the West (mistakes were both S.D. States).
3/6 in the East (missing on SFA, VA Tech, and Wichata State, whom I had getting two wins).
In the Midwest I'm 3/4 (missing on NC State).
So far just the one two-game winner out early. In the pool I'm in you multiply your round number with the seed for points for each winner you pick. I only went heavy with upsets in the first round, but I went with a UM/MSU final (for the absurdity of it). We'll see how it goes. I had a coworker pick UCLA for the final 4 (they didn't get out of the play-in round which wasn't part of the pool, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ).
"Better to talk to people than communicate via tweet." — Elontra