How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

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Isgrimnur
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

Unemployment by state

Mass. is tied for 6th @ 3.3% with Nebraska and Vermont. Big winners are New Hampshire and South Dakota at 2.8%, biggest loser is Alaska at 6.8%
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

Aussie entry job seeker advice
If you're a young person about to enter the job market, the skills you have already may give you more job mobility than you think — as long as you're in the right "job cluster".

That's one of the main takeaways from a new report from the Foundation for Young Australians (FYA).

It found the skills you get from working in one job could on average be transferred to 13 other positions. The report suggests in the future young people should be focusing on their strengths and interest areas rather just the one dream job.

The report, The New Work Mindset, looked at 2.7 million job ads. FYA used an algorithm to look at more than 1,000 occupations, and found there were seven large job clusters based on similar skills sought by employers.

The clusters are:
  • The Artisans (builders and maintainers)
  • The Generators (sellers and servers)
  • The Coordinators (balance the books and do repetitive tasks)
  • The Informers (teach and provide information)
  • The Designers (use expertise to construct or engineer things)
  • The Carers (improve the wellbeing of others)
  • The Technologists (understand and manipulate digital technology)
...
The report said the Artisan cluster — the builders and maintainers — was the most likely to be affected by automation, and had the lowest prospect for growth.

The Technologists cluster — the digital technology specialists — will grow the most.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

CNBC
A drop in U.S. exports last month pushed the country's trade deficit in goods higher while the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week in a positive sign for the labor market.

The two reports released on Thursday suggested that when Donald Trump becomes president next month, the labor market will likely be at roughly full strength and international trade could be weighing on the economy.

In an initial estimate that does not include trade in services, the Commerce Department said America exported $1.2 billion less in November than in October. Imports rose by $2.2 billion during the month. The full trade report for November is due on Jan. 6.
...
The dollar has surged about 5 percent since Trump won the Nov. 8 presidential election as investors bet wider budget deficits under his presidency will trigger higher inflation and more interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve.

Separately, initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 265,000 for the week ended Dec. 24, the Labor Department said.

It was the 95th straight week that claims were below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market. That is the longest stretch since 1970, when the labor market was much smaller.
...
Labor market strength contributed to the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark overnight interest rate earlier this month by 25 basis points to a range of 0.50 percent to 0.75 percent. The U.S. central bank forecast three rate hikes in 2017.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

December Unemployment - 4.7% (0.1%)

>= Age 25 by education level
CategoryPercentChangeYOY Change
Less than a high school diploma8.00.31.1
High school graduates, no college5.10.40.5
Some college or associate degree3.60.10.4
Bachelor's degree and higher2.30.10.0
Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 12.7% (1.9, 1.5 YOY)

Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs2.3
Job leavers0.5
Reentrants1.3
New entrants0.4
Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
WeeksChangeYOY Change
Average Duration25.81.31.8
Median Duration10.50.00.4
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Scuzz »

I don't know if it is coincidence or just our bad luck but the projects we had budgeted and ready to go with a major hospital in the area have been put on hold. We had 6 projects scheduled for this year, there were a total of 15 cancelled. In talking to others two other hospitals, one a Kaiser facility, have cut back on all non-essential work.

I wonder if that has something to do with questions regarding the future of ACA or its replacement.

This could also put us out of business. It has been a tough couple years and we have planned on these projects.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

January Unemployment - 4.8% (0.1%)

>= Age 25 by education level
CategoryPercentChangeYOY Change
Less than a high school diploma8.90.90.3
High school graduates, no college5.90.80.0
Some college or associate degree4.10.50.5
Bachelor's degree and higher2.50.20.1
Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 15.4% (2.7, 1.1 YOY)

Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs2.7
Job leavers0.5
Reentrants1.4
New entrants0.4
Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
WeeksChangeYOY Change
Average Duration23.72.13.9
Median Duration9.60.90.9
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by LordMortis »

This is probably not a good sign

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ly-decline
Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly declined in January as higher mortgage rates, elevated prices and a limited number of listings pushed the index to a one-year low, according to figures released Monday from the National Association of Realtors in Washington.
Key Points

Pending home sales gauge dropped 2.8 percent (forecast was for 0.6 percent advance), the most since May, to a one-year low of 106.4
Contract signings rose 0.8 percent in December, revised down from a previously reported 1.6 percent gain
Index increased 2.7 percent from January 2016 on an unadjusted basis
Pending sales decreased in the Midwest and West
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

A slowdown in the market and rising mortgage rates don't concern me. Runaway valuations and increased defaults concern me.

30yr rates are also still lower than they were at the end of the recession.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Default »

The next four years are going to be interesting (in a Chinese curse kinda way) for me.

Gonna work my ass off to get the mortgage down, just in case.
"pcp, lsd, thc, tgb...it's all good." ~ Kraken
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

February Unemployment - 4.7% (0.1%)

>= Age 25 by education level
CategoryPercentChangeYOY Change
Less than a high school diploma9.00.10.8
High school graduates, no college5.40.40.4
Some college or associate degree4.30.20.3
Bachelor's degree and higher2.40.10.1
Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 14.9% (0.5, 0.6 YOY)

Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs2.6
Job leavers0.5
Reentrants1.4
New entrants0.4
Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
WeeksChangeYOY Change
Average Duration25.11.43.9
Median Duration10.30.71.4
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

Isgrimnur, Oct 23, 2015 wrote:J. C. Penney
J.C. Penney is laying off 300 people at its Plano, Texas headquarters, making it the latest store chain to shed jobs in a tough environment for retailers.
Store Closings
J.C. Penney on Friday released a list of 138 department stores it plans to close as part of a previously announced plan to shrink its footprint as it grapples with industry challenges.

The company had estimated that it would close 130 to 140 locations. Most stores will begin liquidation sales April 17 and close in June.

The retailer said Friday that the closures would displace 5,000 workers. Some will receive transfer opportunities and some will not.

Penney will continue to operate nearly 900 stores.
...
The move followed similar store-closure announcements by Macy's and Sears.
Interactive map and list at the link.

DFW and Detroit have no closings. Chicago-area will lose Woodridge.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

April Unemployment - 4.4% (0.1%)

>= Age 25 by education level
CategoryPercentChangeYOY Change
Less than a high school diploma6.41.21.1
High school graduates, no college4.40.90.8
Some college or associate degree3.50.30.4
Bachelor's degree and higher2.30.10.0
Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 13.4% (0.3, 1.2 YOY)

Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs2.1
Job leavers0.5
Reentrants1.2
New entrants0.4
Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
WeeksChangeYOY Change
Average Duration25.70.44.1
Median Duration12.10.51.1
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

July Unemployment - 4.3% (0.1%)

>= Age 25 by education level
CategoryPercentChangeYOY Change
Less than a high school diploma6.81.00.5
High school graduates, no college4.50.20.6
Some college or associate degree3.90.20.5
Bachelor's degree and higher2.60.20.2
Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 13.6% (2.3, 2.6 YOY)

Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs2.2
Job leavers0.5
Reentrants1.4
New entrants0.6
Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
WeeksChangeYOY Change
Average Duration23.60.72.7
Median Duration9.11.50.5
[/quote]
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Zarathud »

Whoops. Wrong thread.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

August Unemployment - 4.4% (0.1%)

>= Age 25 by education level
CategoryPercentChangeYOY Change
Less than a high school diploma5.51.31.3
High school graduates, no college5.00.50.0
Some college or associate degree3.90.00.5
Bachelor's degree and higher2.70.10.3
Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 13.5% (0.2, 1.9 YOY)

Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs2.2
Job leavers0.5
Reentrants1.3
New entrants0.5
Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
WeeksChangeYOY Change
Average Duration23.70.13.0
Median Duration10.11.00.2
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

Image

Forbes

Given the cyclic nature of construction, I imagine that the list will change dramatically when we hit the next downturn, regardless of the root cause.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

September Unemployment - 4.2% (0.2%)

Table A-4 - >= Age 25 by education level
CategoryPercentChangeYOY Change
Less than a high school diploma5.90.41.8
High school graduates, no college4.10.90.9
Some college or associate degree3.50.40.6
Bachelor's degree and higher2.20.50.3

Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 12.8% (0.7, 3.0 YOY)

Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs1.9
Job leavers0.5
Reentrants1.3
New entrants0.4

Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
WeeksChangeYOY Change
Average Duration26.93.20.3
Median Duration10.30.20.1
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by naednek »

The moment when you just realized you reached the top of your pay scale, and that 5% raise you thought you were getting was actually a 2% raise. Grrr. Now I gotta start getting on lists to promote up. Not complaining, just had the 5% ear marked and I didn't pay attention to where I was at on the pay scale.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

October Unemployment - 4.1% (0.1%)

Table A-4 - >= Age 25 by education level
CategoryPercentChangeYOY Change
Less than a high school diploma5.10.81.6
High school graduates, no college4.00.11.1
Some college or associate degree3.60.10.1
Bachelor's degree and higher2.00.20.5

Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 13.4% (0.6, 1.7 YOY)

Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs1.8
Job leavers0.5
Reentrants1.3
New entrants0.4

Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
WeeksChangeYOY Change
Average Duration27.10.20.8
Median Duration10.10.20.4
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

CNN Money
America's unemployment rate has plummeted from 10% during the Great Recession to 4.1% today. Goldman Sachs thinks it's not done falling.

The unemployment rate is likely to tumble to 3.5% by the end of 2019, Goldman Sachs predicted in a report published late Friday.

The last time unemployment was 3.5% was December 1969, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
...
Goldman Sachs explained its economic optimism by pointing to "impressive momentum" that will be bolstered by post-hurricane rebuilding and "tax cuts now on the horizon."

However, the firm said it expects the GOP tax plan will only have a "moderate" impact on the economy.

No matter the cause, Americans may finally get a much-needed raise. Hatzius predicted that "unimpressive" wage growth will finally accelerate thanks to the shrinking pool of available workers. He said wage growth should reach the 3% to 3.25% rate consistent with full employment in 2018.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

GE layoffs
General Electric plans to cut 12,000 jobs in its power division as the industrial conglomerate's new CEO institutes sweeping changes and the company grapples with a decline in business for coal and natural gas products.

The company will cut nearly one in five positions in its GE Power unit. It was not immediately clear where and when the reductions would occur, though the company said they would include "professional and production employees."

The move comes as CEO John Flannery, who took over for Jeffrey Immelt in August, is aiming to make GE more efficient. He has already earned a reputation for taking a microscope to GE's global business to identify opportunities for savings and changes.

GE said the cuts would contribute to its plans to slash $3.5 billion in "structural costs" in 2017 and 2018. That includes a $1 billion cost-cutting plan in 2018 by the GE Power division, which makes gas and steam turbines, electrical transmission products, nuclear plant infrastructure and other items.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

November Unemployment - 4.1% (0.0%)

Table A-4 - >= Age 25 by education level
CategoryPercentChangeYOY Change
Less than a high school diploma5.00.12.7
High school graduates, no college4.20.20.5
Some college or associate degree3.50.10.2
Bachelor's degree and higher1.90.10.3

Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 15.7% (2.3, 1.1 YOY)

Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs1.8
Job leavers0.5
Reentrants1.2
New entrants0.4

Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
WeeksChangeYOY Change
Average Duration26.30.80.8
Median Duration9.70.20.8
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Udar4450 »

Spam
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Montag »

My company was acquired by new German overlords. Got an appreciable bonus, better than inflation increase, and my insurance premiums dropped by maybe 4% because it changed from BCBS of IL to IN.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Lassr »

Eh, looking like Congress will start hammering our benefits when they return to help pay for the tax break for the rich.
The only reason people get lost in thought is because it's unfamiliar territory.

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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

coopasonic wrote: Fri Sep 06, 2013 11:03 am
Isgrimnur wrote:Of course, it's like a 20-minuted drive each way through the heart of the Metroplex.
Are you complaining about a 20 minute commute?
Man, those were the days...
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

December Unemployment - 4.1% (0.0%)

Table A-4 - >= Age 25 by education level
CategoryPercentChangeYOY Change
Less than a high school diploma6.81.81.2
High school graduates, no college4.20.00.9
Some college or associate degree3.40.10.2
Bachelor's degree and higher2.00.10.3

Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 11.9% (3.8, 0.8 YOY)

Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs2.1
Job leavers0.4
Reentrants1.1
New entrants0.3

Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
WeeksChangeYOY Change
Average Duration23.51.82.3
Median Duration8.80.91.7
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

January Unemployment - 4.1% (0.0%)

Table A-4 - >= Age 25 by education level
CategoryPercentChangeYOY Change
Less than a high school diploma7.10.31.8
High school graduates, no college5.10.90.8
Some college or associate degree3.70.30.4
Bachelor's degree and higher2.20.20.3

Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 14.6% (2.7, 0.8 YOY)

Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs2.4
Job leavers0.4
Reentrants1.3
New entrants0.4

Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
WeeksChangeYOY Change
Average Duration22.70.81.0
Median Duration8.90.10.7
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

CNBC
U.S. consumer prices rose considerably more than expected in January, fueling fears that inflation is about to turn dangerously higher.

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5 percent last month against projections of a 0.3 percent increase, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the index was up 0.3 percent against estimates of 0.2 percent.

The report indicated that price pressures were "broad-based," with rises in gasoline, shelter, clothing, medical care and food.

Markets reacted sharply to the news. The Dow opened more than 100 points lower, but reversed those losses after the first half-hour of trading. Government bond yields also turned higher, with the benchmark 10-year note most recently trading near 2.88 percent, a gain of about 3.8 basis points.

Investors also began to price in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least three times this year.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

Drop in housing sales
The sharp drop in January home sales was not due to a shortage of homes for sale. It was due to a shortage of affordable homes for sale.

While real estate economists continue to blame the pitiful 3.4-month supply of total listings (a six-month supply is considered a balanced market), a better indicator is a chart on the second-to-last page of the National Association of Realtors' monthly sales report. It breaks down sales by price point.

Sales of homes priced below $100,000 fell 13 percent in January year-over-year. Sales of homes priced between $100,000 and $250,000 fell just more than 2 percent. The share of first-time buyers also fell to 29 percent, compared to 33 percent a year ago.
...
The biggest sales gains were in homes priced between $500,000 and $750,000, up nearly 12 percent annually. Apparently there are more of those homes for sale.

That's a problem, because higher price points are not where the bulk of buyers exist and especially not where most first-time buyers exist. If you look at sales distribution, about 55 percent of buyers are in the below $250,000 category. Just 13 percent are above $750,000.

Unfortunately, the entry-level price point is not where most new home builders exist either today, given the significantly higher costs of construction. The median home price of a newly built home is around $335,000, according to the U.S. Census.

The lower-price tier is, however, where investors exist. During the recession, when the supply of homes for sale was about four times what it is today, investors bought millions of properties, saving the housing market overall by putting a floor on tumbling home prices. Realtors say now is the time for those same investors to sell.
...
But investors are still buying at a steady clip. They represented 17 percent of January home sales, unchanged from January of last year. They have put millions of dollars not just into home purchases but into renovations and management infrastructure. Occupancies are still high, and rents are not coming down. There is no compelling reason, save generosity to the rest of the market, for them to sell.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

February Unemployment - 4.1% (0.0%)

Table A-4 - >= Age 25 by education level
CategoryPercentChangeYOY Change
Less than a high school diploma7.00.2.0
High school graduates, no college4.90.20.5
Some college or associate degree3.80.10.5
Bachelor's degree and higher2.20.00.2

Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 14.7% (0.1, 0.2 YOY)

Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs2.3
Job leavers0.5
Reentrants1.2
New entrants0.4

Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
WeeksChangeYOY Change
Average Duration22.70.02.4
Median Duration9.40.50.9
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

March Unemployment - 4.1% (0.0%)

Table A-4 - >= Age 25 by education level
CategoryPercentChangeYOY Change
Less than a high school diploma6.50.51.1
High school graduates, no college4.70.20.6
Some college or associate degree3.70.10.1
Bachelor's degree and higher2.20.00.2

Table A-1 - Unemployment Rate Ages 16-19 - 12.8% (1.9, 0.3 YOY)

Table A-11 - Reasons for unemployment
Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs2.1
Job leavers0.5
Reentrants1.2
New entrants0.4

Table A-12 - Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
WeeksChangeYOY Change
Average Duration24.82.11.3
Median Duration10.20.81.4
It's almost as if people are the problem.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Moliere »

A Downturn That Costs Jobs Could Catch the U.S. Unprepared
More than half of states lack enough unemployment funding for a recession...
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stessier
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by stessier »

I think this is somewhat related - how much people have saved for retirement by age bracket. They include both the mean and median and the difference between the two, while expected, is still shocking to me.
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Isgrimnur
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Isgrimnur »

Doing my best to stay above the median. :horse:

Still low for my age group, but then, I got a late start. At least until my pension vests this fall.
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coopasonic
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by coopasonic »

My employer and I put about 5x the median in annually.
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RunningMn9
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by RunningMn9 »

The mean for my bracket is $6200?! That is terrifying (for those people). I don’t imagine that I will have six times my salary by age 50, but I feel like I’m doing ok on this front. I cannot imagine only having $6200 saved for retirement by age 43.

I can’t imagine even only having 10 to 20 times that. I would be in a panic mode 24/7.
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coopasonic
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by coopasonic »

RunningMn9 wrote: Mon Apr 23, 2018 6:51 pm The mean for my bracket is $6200?! That is terrifying (for those people). I don’t imagine that I will have six times my salary by age 50, but I feel like I’m doing ok on this front. I cannot imagine only having $6200 saved for retirement by age 43.

I can’t imagine even only having 10 to 20 times that. I would be in a panic mode 24/7.
$6200 is median for the mid to upper 40s folks. Mean is $81k for the same group which is better, but not by much.

6x salary is easier if you make less money. I'm close to 8x now. So 6x at 50 shouldn't be a problem unless I get a pretty impressive raise. :D
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pr0ner
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by pr0ner »

Those numbers are shocking.
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Re: How has the recent economic turmoil affected you?

Post by Smoove_B »

They really shouldn't be. Anyone that's been following personal financing issues knows that an overwhelming number of people are living paycheck to paycheck without any regard for the idea of savings, much less investing for retirement. Retirement accounts are a luxury when you need to pay the bills today. There's going to be a reckoning and it's going to be ugly. I'm personally not worried about retirement but I still plan for it. I've lost track of the number of 60+ year old relatives I've talked to over the last year (mostly while attending funerals) that have told me they really wish they knew to start aggressively saving in their 30s. They're not in bad shape now, but they could have been in such greater shape with relatively conservative investments 30+ years ago. Then again, when I look at interest rates from the 80s and what was available to savers (like me), I want to puke - it was a different world then.
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