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Trump Trade War

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LordMortis
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:19 pm

Rip wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:14 pm
LordMortis wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 4:07 pm
Taking that into consideration. It's apparently a current Daily Mail term... Don't read them and I don't know enough to say why I don't read them, so, meh.
Yea, totally a Daily Mail thing. :roll:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/mon ... a822715da0
Our research finds that Trump has attracted a disproportionate (and unprecedented) number of “low-information voters” to his campaign. Furthermore, these voters are more likely to respond to emotional appeals — whether about the economy, immigration, Muslims, racial relations, sexism, and even hostility to the first African American U.S. president, Barack Obama. They are the ideal constituency for a candidate like Trump.
https://www.google.com/search?q=%22Low+ ... n+voter%22

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Pyperkub » Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:46 pm

noxiousdog wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:53 pm
No, what it means is that they gave the toddler something he could talk about and then tried to figure out how to do the least damage possible. And since he never reads a briefing, he'll never know.
Cross-posted:

I'll (actually) give him credit for calling out China (though previous Presidents have done the same), I'm just very concerned that the Trump approach will turn out to be idiotic, as usual. Doing it unilaterally vs. with a coalition (ala the TPP), and also hitting our closest allies is just dumb, dumb, dumb, IMHO. Less leverage, and hurting those who would be inclined to help us otherwise.

Diplomacy and Negotiations are definitely NOT his strong suit. Who knows, maybe Putin will help him... though I think Putin is extremely happy with a US/China trade war.

Daily Beast:
Yet the current relationship between China and the U.S. needs to be disrupted. Chinese theft of intellectual property is sapping American innovation and therefore America’s economy. The IP Commission, in a 2017 update (PDF) to its landmark 2013 report, estimates the U.S. each year loses somewhere between $225 billion to $600 billion in intellectual property through predatory means. It almost goes without saying that most of that loss is, directly or indirectly, to China.

Some say the annual loss is far less than the Commission thinks, but the theft, even according to low estimates, is grievous for a country that has developed an innovation-based society...

...President Trump, whether he ends up in a trade war or not, has zeroed in on the core of the competition between China and the U.S. Lighthizer’s proposed tariff list Tuesday includes duties on some mundane items but especially goes after the Chinese aerospace, information and communications tech, and robotics sectors. As Zhou Hao of Commerzbank in Singapore told Bloomberg, “The U.S. list suggests that the government is targeting the ‘Made in China 2025’ initiative.”

That initiative, announced in 2015 by China’s State Council, seeks to make that country nearly self-sufficient in 10 crucial industries, including aircraft, robots, electric cars, and computer chips. Beijing has set out specific goals for market shares by industry.

The plan aims for near self-sufficiency in components by 2020 and materials five years later. Moreover, Beijing, stepping into trade-violation territory, wants Chinese industries to possess 80 percent of their home market in the listed sectors.

CM2025, as the initiative is known in China, calls for jumbo-sized, low-interest loans from state investment funds and development banks, aid for the purchase of foreign competitors, and research subsidies.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Pyperkub » Fri Apr 06, 2018 8:49 pm

And on the flip side - Krugman:
Let’s talk in particular about the will-he-or-won’t-he confrontation with China.

In some ways, China really is a bad actor in the global economy. In particular, it has pretty much thumbed its nose at international rules on intellectual property rights, grabbing foreign technology without proper payment. And to be fair, Trump officials do sometimes raise the intellectual property issue as a justification for getting tough.

But if getting China to pay what it owes for technology were the goal, you’d expect the U.S. both to make specific demands on that front and to adopt a strategy aimed at inducing China to meet those demands.

In fact, the U.S. has given little indication of what China should do about intellectual property. Meanwhile, if getting better protection of patent rights and so on were the goal, America should be trying to build a coalition with other advanced countries to pressure the Chinese; instead, we’ve been alienating everyone in sight.

Anyway, what seems to really bother Trump aren’t China’s genuine policy sins, but its trade surplus with the United States,
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by The Meal » Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:40 pm

LordMortis wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:56 pm
LIVs ? Is that a new Fox and Friends term?
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Pyperkub » Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:18 am

There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by raydude » Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:42 pm

Pyperkub wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:18 am
Minor concessions from China?
My take on this is that China has analyzed Trump's lack of attention to detail and to follow ups, then calculating that all that's needed is to placate the orange monster by mouthing platitudes and doing nothing. Even better that Trump sorely needs good news right now. So Trump could seize on this as a "See! I'm winning!" moment and drop the tariffs and his complaints about China. Thus resulting in a win for China and a reprieve for Trump.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:46 pm

The article starts out with "vague specifics" and that these steps were already in play prior to Drumpf's bluster and tariffs.

I think it's too soon to get your hopes up with regard to trade with China, but I have no strong opinion on what to expect from China, other than retaliation if tariffs remain in place.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by LordMortis » Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:47 pm

Doing something, which is stick the the plan from before his tidrade and roll their eyes when he takes credit and his mob use that as evidence to support him and accept whatever concessions he "negotiates" back with the internal monologue "bonus!". A la Ford tech center jobs, etc...

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Pyperkub » Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:02 pm

GreenGoo wrote:
Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:46 pm
The article starts out with "vague specifics" and that these steps were already in play prior to Drumpf's bluster and tariffs.

I think it's too soon to get your hopes up with regard to trade with China, but I have no strong opinion on what to expect from China, other than retaliation if tariffs remain in place.
Yeah, was posting from the tablet via tapatalk, which makes quoting hard (as well as links).

Just publicizing these efforts does help Trump however.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:31 pm

Maybe. I'm not so sure. He'll try to spin it in his favour, but he's not particularly skilled at spinning. Of course, his supporters don't need anything but his say so, so...yeah.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Max Peck » Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:26 pm

Trump weighs rejoining Trans-Pacific Partnership amid trade dispute with China
President Trump ordered top administration officials Thursday to look at rejoining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the sprawling trade pact he rejected three days after taking office.

The move would mark a stunning reversal for Trump, who sharply criticized the pact as a “disaster” and made opposition to global trade deals a centerpiece of his economic agenda as a candidate.

The Obama administration had signed the trade agreement, known as TPP, with 11 other countries, including Japan, Vietnam, Singapore and Australia, to lower tariffs and counter China’s influence in the Pacific. An embrace of the TPP would give Trump more leverage in his escalating trade feud with Beijing. It also would give U.S. farms, retailers and other businesses better access to foreign markets if China makes good on its recent threats of new tariffs on U.S. goods.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Pyperkub » Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:37 pm

Max Peck wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:26 pm
Trump weighs rejoining Trans-Pacific Partnership amid trade dispute with China
President Trump ordered top administration officials Thursday to look at rejoining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the sprawling trade pact he rejected three days after taking office.

The move would mark a stunning reversal for Trump, who sharply criticized the pact as a “disaster” and made opposition to global trade deals a centerpiece of his economic agenda as a candidate.

The Obama administration had signed the trade agreement, known as TPP, with 11 other countries, including Japan, Vietnam, Singapore and Australia, to lower tariffs and counter China’s influence in the Pacific. An embrace of the TPP would give Trump more leverage in his escalating trade feud with Beijing. It also would give U.S. farms, retailers and other businesses better access to foreign markets if China makes good on its recent threats of new tariffs on U.S. goods.
Actually a smart move, if he truly wants to change China's behavior, he'll need lots of allies and mending fences would be good. I still think the IP provisions in TPP are horrifying however.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:09 pm

In light of Trump's recent trade skirmishes and his obvious disdain for treaty obligations, the other signatories ought to tell him Thanks, but no thanks. Wait for a more trustworthy administration, if we can ever regain the world's trust.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior » Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:38 am

LOL. What a fucking moron. Pulling out of TPP was a historic level blunder on its own. That he then initiated some ham-handed trade war that he can't win that leads him to possibly flip flop on that is amazing. He is not going to get good terms if any now. The only "fair" part of this shit show is he is mostly fucking over his own voters.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Paingod » Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:25 am

Pyperkub wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:37 pm
Max Peck wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:26 pm
Trump weighs rejoining Trans-Pacific Partnership amid trade dispute with China
President Trump ordered top administration officials Thursday to look at rejoining the Trans-Pacific Partnership...
Actually a smart move, if he truly wants to change China's behavior, he'll need lots of allies and mending fences would be good. I still think the IP provisions in TPP are horrifying however.
I would have called it "Trump parroting the last thing someone told him" ... not necessarily a "Smart Move". Someone in his administration tugged the leash and he barked.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:16 pm

Politico
The Treasury Department Monday eased sanctions on Russian aluminum producer Rusal and said it would consider lifting them altogether if the company severs ties with Oleg Deripaska, a Russian oligarch with close ties to President Vladimir Putin.

Rusal was sanctioned earlier this month by Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control because of Deripaska's stake in the company. The Russian billionaire is alleged to have conducted a range of illegal activities, including money laundering, extortion and ordering the murder of a businessman, according to Treasury.

He is also reportedly part of special counsel Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election.

OFAC's action extends by six months a "wind-down" period during which U.S. and foreign entities won't be penalized for doing business with Rusal. The agency said it is also considering a petition to lift sanctions on the company entirely.
...
Deripaska made headlines last year after it was reported that former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort offered him "private briefings" on the 2016 election less than two weeks after Trump became the Republican nominee.

The Russian oligarch filed suit in January against Manafort and business partner Rick Gates over a failed business deal.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:18 pm

The Street
Aluminum prices fell as much as 8.3% following the news Monday after last week breaking through price records not seen since 2011. Aluminum pared earlier losses by morning trading, down about 0.64% to $2,469 per metric ton.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:21 pm

Rip wrote:
Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:29 pm
https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-brac ... 1522920600
U.S. aluminum prices are falling despite a tariff aimed at boosting domestic production of the metal.

That’s good news for manufacturers of products such as beer cans and car hoods, which are paying 3% less for aluminum than they were before the Trump administration announced the tariff on March 1. These manufacturers said at the time that the 10% tariff on foreign aluminum could push up prices and cause a domestic aluminum shortage just as their orders pick up in a strong economy.
That lasted, what, three days including a weekend?
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Rip » Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:35 pm

Still a lower than it was much of the previous administration. It was over $3000/tonne for awhile.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:42 pm

Rip wrote:
Mon Apr 23, 2018 3:35 pm
Still a lower than it was much of the previous administration. It was over $3000/tonne for awhile.
Never the case:

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Not like the glory days of 2006:

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Rip » Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:42 pm

I never said it was over 3000 during the previous administration. I said it had been higher much of it, which your chart validates.

I said it had been over 3000 at some point which your second chart also validates. Thanks for the work.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by stessier » Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:49 pm

Rip wrote:
Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:42 pm
I never said it was over 3000 during the previous administration. I said it had been higher much of it, which your chart validates.

I said it had been over 3000 at some point which your second chart also validates. Thanks for the work.
You English very poorly.

And you are wrong are still wrong. The price is the highest it has been in the last five years.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Rip » Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:57 pm

stessier wrote:
Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:49 pm
Rip wrote:
Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:42 pm
I never said it was over 3000 during the previous administration. I said it had been higher much of it, which your chart validates.

I said it had been over 3000 at some point which your second chart also validates. Thanks for the work.
You English very poorly.

And you are wrong are still wrong. The price is the highest it has been in the last five years.

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But the previous administration goes more than five years back. 2008-2016 (iirc). It was higher in 2008 as well as 2011.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Mon Apr 23, 2018 7:27 pm

Your writing sucks or your implication was wrong.
Rip wrote:
Mon Apr 23, 2018 5:57 pm
But the previous administration goes more than five years back. 2008-2016 (iirc). It was higher in 2008 as well as 2011.
Election day in even numbered years. Inauguration day is in January of the following year. Like January 20, 2009. Which is also in my chart.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Rip » Mon Apr 23, 2018 8:33 pm

Whatever. Bottom line 2400-2500 a tonne isn't that bad a price.

Nothingburger.

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Chaz » Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:05 pm

Goalposts moved!
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Rip » Tue Apr 24, 2018 10:56 am

The Congressional Budget Office’s budget and economic outlook released this month projects that real Gross Domestic Product will grow by 3.3 percent from the fourth quarter of 2017 to the fourth quarter of 2018.

That would mark a 15-year high.

“In CBO’s projections, real GDP expands by 3.3 percent this year and by 2.4 percent in 2019,” says the CBO report. “It grew by 2.6 percent last year.”

The last time real GDP grew by more than 3.3 percent from the fourth quarter of one year to the fourth quarter of the next was in 2003, when it grew by 4.4 percent, according to the historical data published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/te ... -year-high

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:05 am

Which will fuel inflation.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:22 am

Cool. Keep it up mr. expert business man.

Hey, look at this chart thingy. A 1 year spike followed by years of decline. What could possibly have caused such blip? Weird, eh Rip?

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by noxiousdog » Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:58 am

Isgrimnur wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:05 am
Which will fuel inflation.
Causes of inflation are not strongly linked to GDP growth.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Isgrimnur » Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:31 pm

Someone should tell Investopedia:
Studies have shown that over the past 20 years, annual GDP growth over 2.5% has caused a 0.5% drop in unemployment for every percentage point over 2.5%. It sounds like the perfect way to kill two birds with one stone — increase overall growth while lowering the unemployment rate, right? Unfortunately, however, this positive relationship starts to break down when employment gets very low, or near full employment.
...
Over time, the growth in GDP causes inflation, and inflation begets hyperinflation. Once this process is in place, it can quickly become a self-reinforcing feedback loop. This is because in a world where inflation is increasing, people will spend more money because they know that it will be less valuable in the future. This causes further increases in GDP in the short term, bringing about further price increases.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by noxiousdog » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:14 pm

Isgrimnur wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:31 pm
Someone should tell Investopedia:
Studies have shown that over the past 20 years, annual GDP growth over 2.5% has caused a 0.5% drop in unemployment for every percentage point over 2.5%. It sounds like the perfect way to kill two birds with one stone — increase overall growth while lowering the unemployment rate, right? Unfortunately, however, this positive relationship starts to break down when employment gets very low, or near full employment.
...
Over time, the growth in GDP causes inflation, and inflation begets hyperinflation. Once this process is in place, it can quickly become a self-reinforcing feedback loop. This is because in a world where inflation is increasing, people will spend more money because they know that it will be less valuable in the future. This causes further increases in GDP in the short term, bringing about further price increases.
Correlation is not causation. GDP cannot directly increase the money supply; ergo GDP cannot directly cause inflation.

Furthermore, GDP is a measurement. How can a measurement be a cause?

In fact, the conversation we are having is about the measurement of a measurement. (Change in GDP).
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by stessier » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:25 pm

noxiousdog wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:14 pm
Furthermore, GDP is a measurement. How can a measurement be a cause?
The article said the growth in GDP was the cause. It's not the absolute number, but the underlying processes leading to a changing reading that cause the inflation. That seems pretty reasonable.

It's like you're arguing that your bank account reading zero is not the reason you missed your rent payment. While true, we all understand that there was a process that lead to you bank account reading zero and it is that process, indicated by your balance, that is the true cause of you missing your rent.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Zarathud » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:37 pm

Growth tends to follow demand. Increasing demand with no improvement in efficiency or supply will cause increased prices. That means inflation.

This is Economics 101.

The current low inflation environment is the result of human labor getting squeezed, and the easy money Federal Reserve policy causing asset inflation in the stock market rather than broad product price increases. It's an anomaly.
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Kraken » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:11 pm

GreenGoo wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 11:22 am

Hey, look at this chart thingy. A 1 year spike followed by years of decline. What could possibly have caused such blip? Weird, eh Rip?
Democrats retaking congress this November are already tanking the economy. Obviously. (They will be blamed, even though the decline is baked in.)

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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by noxiousdog » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:31 pm

Zarathud wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:37 pm
Growth tends to follow demand. Increasing demand with no improvement in efficiency or supply will cause increased prices. That means inflation.

This is Economics 101.

The current low inflation environment is the result of human labor getting squeezed, and the easy money Federal Reserve policy causing asset inflation in the stock market rather than broad product price increases. It's an anomaly.
Economists generally believe that high rates of inflation and hyperinflation are caused by an excessive growth of the money supply.[6] Views on which factors determine low to moderate rates of inflation are more varied. Low or moderate inflation may be attributed to fluctuations in real demand for goods and services, or changes in available supplies such as during scarcities.[7] However, the consensus view is that a long sustained period of inflation is caused by money supply growing faster than the rate of economic growth.[8][9] Inflation may also lead to an invisible tax in which the value of currency is lowered in contrast with its actual reserve, ultimately leading individuals to hold devalued legal tender.[10]

Today, most economists favor a low and steady rate of inflation.[11] Low (as opposed to zero or negative) inflation reduces the severity of economic recessions by enabling the labor market to adjust more quickly in a downturn, and reduces the risk that a liquidity trap prevents monetary policy from stabilizing the economy.[12] The task of keeping the rate of inflation low and stable is usually given to monetary authorities. Generally, these monetary authorities are the central banks that control monetary policy through the setting of interest rates, through open market operations, and through the setting of banking reserve requirements.[13]
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by noxiousdog » Tue Apr 24, 2018 2:42 pm

Consider the following thought experiment.

I have a country of a 100 people. It's a communist society with the exception of buying pretty rocks. The prices are regulated. GDP is 100% measured by the number of rocks they sell. If they sell 10% more each year, GDP rises 10% every year. No inflation.

Similarly, if the number of rocks are regulated and I increase the money supply by 10% every year, you have 10% inflation. GDP and inflation are not dependent entities.
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Zarathud
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by Zarathud » Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:58 am

Your wikipedia quote refers to hyperinflation such as Weimar Republic Germany, not normal economic cycles. This following wikipedia cite shows how the term is misunderstood:
The term "inflation" originally referred to increases in the amount of money in circulation.[29][30][31] However, most economists today use the term "inflation" to refer to a rise in the price level. An increase in the money supply may be called monetary inflation, to distinguish it from rising prices, which may also for clarity be called "price inflation".[26] Economists generally agree that in the long run, inflation is caused by increases in the money supply.[32]
That last sentence is monetarist doctrine, and does not fit the more clear explanation preceding it.

Blaming the money supply and not analyzing aggregates of individual economic activity in a steady state monetary policy is one area where macroeconomics chases the easy answer instead of actual predictive value. Yes, flooding the market with gold or printed currency will drown out normal economic pressures and cause inflation. But that's not the whole answer.
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GreenGoo
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by GreenGoo » Wed Apr 25, 2018 4:28 am

I've always thought of inflation as a reduction in real buying power. That can come from increased money supply but that's not the only way.

malchior
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Re: Trump Trade War

Post by malchior » Wed Apr 25, 2018 6:37 am

Zarathud wrote:
Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:37 pm
Growth tends to follow demand. Increasing demand with no improvement in efficiency or supply will cause increased prices. That means inflation.

This is Economics 101.

The current low inflation environment is the result of human labor getting squeezed, and the easy money Federal Reserve policy causing asset inflation in the stock market rather than broad product price increases. It's an anomaly.
It isn't even really an anomaly - it is predicted by the IS-LM model. 2008 and the recovery afterwards pretty much proved that. That was why Krugman et. al. were banging the drum for a bigger stimulus package and the Fed ended up buying up tons of commercial paper to expand the money supply between the Fed banks and in the debt market. It matters where the money is circulating. If they dropped money evenly across the whole economy we'd see 'monetary inflation' but held as capital reserves is a whole different matter. That doesn't mean money can't spill out of those banks but typically it wouldn't due to capital reserve rules, etc.

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