Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020? No, it's 2020!

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Holman
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman »

It seems to me that it now comes down to one simple question: Is anything impermissible in pursuit of greater economic benefit for the already rich?

If the answer is No, you're a Republican.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

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Hee hee


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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Max Peck »

The game is afoot...
As Donald Trump proved in the 2016 election, pummeling your Democratic opponent is most effective when done early and often. Of course, it doesn’t hurt when that candidate is the frontrunner from the very beginning, or when she has a decades-long record in public office to draw on, as Hillary Clinton did. So it comes as little surprise that Republicans are pre-emptively targeting progressive Senator Elizabeth Warren, among other potential 2020 candidates, in order to dirty her reputation long before the actual presidential election season begins in earnest.

Warren, who made a name for herself as an anti-Wall Street firebrand in the Bernie Sanders mold, is expected to easily win re-election in Massachusetts in 2018. But G.O.P. operatives aren’t waiting for Warren to run in 2020 before using the upcoming election as an opportunity to launch a familiar set of attacks. Politico reports that a mysterious super PAC called Massachusetts First has begun a campaign to “bring to light her hypocrisy and out-of-touch policy positions,” running radio ads and raising $200,000 to continue its attack against the “hypocrite professor” from Harvard. A whopping $150,000 of Massachusetts First’s war chest was donated by Robert Mercer, the billionaire Trump supporter who is also a major stakeholder in Breitbart News and a longtime patron of Steve Bannon. Notably, it was the largest donation Mercer made this year, according to F.E.C. records.

Outside of Massachusetts First—a reference to Trump’s “America First” slogan—other groups are coalescing around an anti-Warren campaign. America First Action and America Rising, two pro-Trump super PACs, have begun collaborating in their anti-Warren opposition research and strategy, Politico reports. Trump’s re-election committee itself began operations within days of his inauguration, released an ad this month calling her a “career politician.”

Warren isn’t the only Democrat on the G.O.P.’s radar, of course. Trump’s allies have also begun compiling opposition strategies to take down Senators Bernie Sanders, Sherrod Brown, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Chris Murphy, and Cory Booker, as well as Governor Andrew Cuomo, among others. All but Booker face re-election in 2018—an opportunity for each to build their war chest and raise their national profile, and for Republicans to try to tear them down. Trump’s allies are particularly eager to kneecap Brown, Politico reports, a finalist to be Clinton’s vice president whom they believe they can unseat before he has a chance to build momentum for a 2020 campaign. Of course, Republicans may have some help in that endeavor. Even if they had all the “dark money” they needed, Republican PACs could come in under-budget as the Democratic Party grapples with its own internecine identity crisis.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Moliere »

Isn't this just politics as usual? Both sides spend ungodly sums to discredit the other party. I feel bad for ordinary people getting sucked into making contributions to these leaches.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kraken »

They are right to be afraid of Warren. She is smart, tough, and genuine (Pocahontas nonsense notwithstanding), and she doesn't have Clinton's baggage or anti-charisma or Bernie's rumpled outsider image. If 2020 is another "change" election Warren will be hard to beat.

However, my early hunch says voters in '20 are going to crave safety over change and will prefer a status quo moderate in Biden's league. I also doubt that the Dems will nominate another woman so soon.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo »

Warren has never really struck me as being especially charismatic, even though I do like her.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kraken »

I meant that she isn't actively unlikable, as Hillary evidently is. Personally, I like Warren all the more since she called Ye Olde Forge in Lanesborough her favorite restaurant in the Berkshires on the facebook. It's my favorite watering hole out there, too. IDK if that counts as "charismatic" or not, especially since that word comes with extra baggage regarding female politicians. It's not like I want to date her, but I'd cheerfully knock back a couple of beers with her.

I'm sure Liz Warren rubs conservatives the wrong way. IDK if she has that same effect on liberals and/or neutrals.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo »

Kraken wrote:I meant that she isn't actively unlikable, as Hillary evidently is. Personally, I like Warren all the more since she called Ye Olde Forge in Lanesborough her favorite restaurant in the Berkshires on the facebook. It's my favorite watering hole out there, too. IDK if that counts as "charismatic" or not, especially since that word comes with extra baggage regarding female politicians. It's not like I want to date her, but I'd cheerfully knock back a couple of beers with her.

I'm sure Liz Warren rubs conservatives the wrong way. IDK if she has that same effect on liberals and/or neutrals.
Honestly Warren comes off, personality / charisma-wise, as pretty similar to Clinton. I think 80% of the difference is that Clinton has the baggage of a couple decades of Republican smears, and 20% is that Clinton cultivated an image as a centrist while Warren cultivated an image as a progressive (though I don't think their policies are lightyears apart).
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman »

It seems to me that the Bernie partisans would see Warren as his anointed successor while the Clinton people would see her as another chance to vote for a strong, competent woman with a track record of standing up to the GOP.

In primary terms, at least, that's pretty unstoppable.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Max Peck »

Nate Silver and Friends: Our Way-Too-Early 2020 Democratic Primary Draft
Bookmark this to see how idiotic we look in four years.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo »

Elizabeth Warren Is Getting Hillary-ed.

I for one am morbidly excited to hear the justifications for voting third party in the Warren v. Trump general election. Might wind up being too derivative of the 2016 pieces, though.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant »

tjg_marantz wrote:Oprah Winfrey
Yeah, she's a real woman of the people
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by LordMortis »

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/37 ... bid-report
Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) is weighing his options for a possible 2020 presidential run, including a possible primary challenge to President Trump, according to a new report.

Nine Republicans familiar with Kasich’s political operation told Politico the governor is weighing his options from a primary challenge to an independent presidential campaign.

Kasich has committed to attending events across the country in the next few months, including a trip to New Hampshire, where the first presidential primaries are held.

The Ohio Republican and his advisers have reportedly discussed whether he should directly challenge Trump or wait for an “opening” in the race.

“He’s actually been pretty straightforward about it: he would like to run again if he sees an opening,” Charlie Black, who advised Kasich’s 2016 presidential campaign, told Politico. “And if Trump runs again, there’s no opening. But if Trump doesn’t run, there is one.”

Kasich's top political adviser, John Weaver, attempted to tamp down the report, telling Politico “there’s been no decision to run, but no decision not to run.”

According to the news outlet, Kasich is targeting a younger audience with his message of civility and bipartisanship as he travels the country for various events, including an upcoming appearance with members of the Bush family in Houston.

The Ohio governor has been a frequent critic of Trump since losing to him in the 2016 Republican primary.

Last month, Kasich said he had not ruled out a potential 2020 presidential run.

"I honestly don't know what my future is," Kasich said on CNN.

"As to whether I would do something like that again? If I felt my country called me and it was practical, I'd have to very seriously think about it," he continued.
Sadly, while I would have likely voted for him 2016, I am fairly firm in the republican party needs to change before I do. I won't enable them like an abusive spouse if I have any reasonable option.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kraken »

I'm an independent specifically so that I can choose which primary ballot to take. If all of the D candidates are more-or-less equally acceptable, I'll take the red ballot to vote against Trump. (For some reason the D ballots are red and the R ballots are blue here, but you know what I mean).

I suspect that the Ds will present a choice between a progressive and an establishment candidate, though, and I'll want to weigh in on that.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo »

FWIW Warren gave a high-profile address to a native American group the other week talking about her native American heritage (and thereby touching on the whole "Fauxohontas" thing). Most importantly, that significantly raises the chances that she's thinking about running in 2020 (as otherwise I'm not sure why she'd be bothering to do that).
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Jeff V »

Kraken wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:44 pm I'm an independent specifically so that I can choose which primary ballot to take. If all of the D candidates are more-or-less equally acceptable, I'll take the red ballot to vote against Trump.
And to think it was just a couple of years ago when we were all talking about voting in the Republican primary to help nominate a certain buffoon that could never, ever, possibly win....
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Jaymann »

I was listening to a Sam Harris podcast where they speculated a Trump impeachment (especially a failed one) may not be the best result for the Democrats, as it could give him a boost for re-election, ala Bill Clinton. Trump in the White House has galvinized the Dems like nobody's business, and they may not want to break that momentum.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kraken »

Jaymann wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2018 3:48 pm I was listening to a Sam Harris podcast where they speculated a Trump impeachment (especially a failed one) may not be the best result for the Democrats, as it could give him a boost for re-election, ala Bill Clinton. Trump in the White House has galvinized the Dems like nobody's business, and they may not want to break that momentum.
I reckon that will come down to how clear-cut the case for treason is. Clinton's crimes were kid stuff next to being a Russian puppet. Nothing can turn the Trumpelos against him. I find it hard to imagine failing to remove a foreign agent will move anyone else to support him. But then, a lot of things that are hard to imagine happen every week, so....
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Defiant »

A number of polls give Biden the first place position in the Democratic primary (though, obviously, it's several political lifetimes until then, so things can definitely change), with a moderate to large lead over Sanders.

I asked a question a while back about what people thought was the reason for Sanders support[/url], and it looks like maybe a significant chunk of his support was anti-Clinton. It's not like he can claim lack of name recognition now.

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman »

Defiant wrote: Sat Mar 24, 2018 12:11 am A number of polls give Biden the first place position in the Democratic primary (though, obviously, it's several political lifetimes until then, so things can definitely change),[...]
At this point prior to 2016, I believe all the talk was about the inevitability of Marco Rubio.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Moliere »

Eric Holder?
Eric Holder was the first black attorney general of the United States, serving under its first black president, Barack Obama. Holder left office in 2013, but he hasn’t left public life. And for a second act, he’s considering politics and a bid to serve as the second black occupant of the White House.

During a Tuesday interview with MSNBC’s Chris Hayes, Holder said he was considering a run in 2020. “Yes, I’m thinking about it, but I’ve not made any determinations,” he said. At Al Sharpton’s National Action Network conference on Wednesday, Holder sounded like a candidate, blasting the Trump administration for its approach to criminal justice. “The present administration wants to take us back to the failed leadership of the past,” he said. “They’re not being tough on crime. They’re not being smart on crime. They’re being dumb on crime. [The] formerly incarcerated continue to face significant obstacles, and they now face a hostile administration intent on making law enforcement an instrument of the fear they use to divide and try to govern us.” It was enough to prompt a “Run, Eric, run!” chant from Sharpton that the audience indulged.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

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Gee whiz, pare back the number of superdelegates as approximately 600 Democrats gear up to run for president under a strictly proportional delegate allocation system that won't produce a majority winner if there are more than two major candidates. What could possibly go wrong??
Also, California—which is ~12% of delegates all by itself—moved its primary forward to March, which means it will probably occur when there's still a multi-candidate field. That will make it even harder for someone to get a majority.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo »

I know. There are just so many ways that 2020 could go wrong, even assuming that Trump remains hugely unpopular. Remember that Sanders is likely going to be a 2020 candidate again, and is likely to get a significant share of the vote. Imagine how it would play out if we wind up with a brokered democratic convention, with Sanders at or near the highest vote / delegate percentage, but with the convention producing someone else as the nominee.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Kraken »

(Very) early indications, based on the '18 primaries, are that Americans will want a centrist moderate in 2020 -- we crave a return to normalcy after the change election of 2016 and the ensuing lunacy. Bernie was the right candidate for the last election, and I believe he will be wrong for the next one. Naturally, that means the Democrats will nominate him. :grund:
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman »

Eventually we'll need a separate thread for this, but I'll go ahead and bet that Sanders will not be the nominee.

He's old, white, male, demonstrably pro-gun, and famously tone-deaf to issues of race and gender. None of that is a top-level magnet in the political climate of 2018, anyway.

If he's running, he seems to have squandered 2017 and 2018 so far. There's not much Bernimentum at the moment.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

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Never interfere with the enemy when he is in the process of destroying himself.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo »

Holman wrote: Fri May 18, 2018 5:29 pm Eventually we'll need a separate thread for this, but I'll go ahead and bet that Sanders will not be the nominee.

He's old, white, male, demonstrably pro-gun, and famously tone-deaf to issues of race and gender. None of that is a top-level magnet in the political climate of 2018, anyway.

If he's running, he seems to have squandered 2017 and 2018 so far. There's not much Bernimentum at the moment.
He's got high name recognition and a built-in base of committed followers. He'll be a contender in 2020, though it won't be easy by any means. My guess is that by the time the 2020 campaign starts in earnest (probably two weeks from now), he'll be in the top 5 in polling, probably behind Biden.

Getting to 50% won't be easy for anyone, though. And I worry that he'll wind up getting a significant percentage of the vote with delegates and supporters that won't be eager to play ball with an eventual non-Sanders nominee.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman »

With Stacey Abrams winning today's Democratic primary, it's reasonably possible that Georgia (!!!) will elect the nation's first black woman Governor.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

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Holman wrote: Tue May 22, 2018 9:53 pm With Stacey Abrams winning today's Democratic primary, it's reasonably possible that Georgia (!!!) will elect the nation's first black woman Governor.
I don't think it's all that shocking that Georgia would be the first state to do so. It's red, but not the reddest state in the world, and it's got a substantial African-American population. As a Democrat in a pro-democratic year, seems like a plausible state.

I'd be more shocked by, say, Alaska.

Not that this is about 2020, though.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Holman »

El Guapo wrote: Tue May 22, 2018 9:58 pm
Holman wrote: Tue May 22, 2018 9:53 pm With Stacey Abrams winning today's Democratic primary, it's reasonably possible that Georgia (!!!) will elect the nation's first black woman Governor.
I don't think it's all that shocking that Georgia would be the first state to do so. It's red, but not the reddest state in the world, and it's got a substantial African-American population. As a Democrat in a pro-democratic year, seems like a plausible state.

I'd be more shocked by, say, Alaska.

Not that this is about 2020, though.
Oops. Right. Clicked on the wrong thread.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by LordMortis »

Here is a name I'm seeing more and more often and now is both active and getting his name out in one swoop.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/je ... 565aad1076

Given this, I imagine it won't be long until it's a name I'm seeing slandered by conservative media and the marching orders soon.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Isgrimnur »

Beats yelling at Park Rangers during a shutdown that your party caused.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo »

I had an interesting conversation the other day with a mid-to-low information Sanders supporter from 2016. I mentioned that Sanders is a virtual lock to run in 2020, and will probably start as one of the democratic front runners. She was surprised that Sanders would run as a Democrat, since "didn't they kick Sanders out of the Democratic Party?" I was like, well, no, and also he's technically never been a democrat, so there's nothing to kick him out of, per se.

I just found it fascinating that she thought that Sanders had been expelled from the democratic party.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

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Did you think there were ignorant voters only on the Right? We have our share too.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Isgrimnur »

It's almost like ignorance is a feature of humanity, rather than the 'other side' of an issue. :think:
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by El Guapo »

Remus West wrote: Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:07 am Did you think there were ignorant voters only on the Right? We have our share too.
No, I get that. It's not that my reaction was "huh, here's a piece of misinformation on the left". It's just very interesting to see (across political spectrums) what particular facts seep in, and how they get there. I assume this is just a random byproduct of reading a million "the democratic primary was rigged" stories.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by coopasonic »

El Guapo wrote: Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:33 am
Remus West wrote: Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:07 am Did you think there were ignorant voters only on the Right? We have our share too.
No, I get that. It's not that my reaction was "huh, here's a piece of misinformation on the left". It's just very interesting to see (across political spectrums) what particular facts seep in, and how they get there. I assume this is just a random byproduct of reading a million "the democratic primary was rigged" stories headlines.
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by Exodor »

LordMortis wrote: Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:56 pm Here is a name I'm seeing more and more often and now is both active and getting his name out in one swoop.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/je ... 565aad1076
There's been talk about Merkley running for a some time now

I don't think he's got a shot but I hope he tries anyway. :wub:
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Re: Too Soon To Start Thinking About 2020?

Post by LordMortis »

Exodor wrote: Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:14 pm I don't think he's got a shot but I hope he tries anyway. :wub:
I'm not saying he does, but why not? Where is his baggage? Much like 2008 Obama, he's moving and shaking but not on the RADAR... yet. The only thing Obama had was that as far as federal politicing went, he came from nowhere, so re-aligining to him quickly was supremely difficult.

I don't know shit about Merkley but he's been publicly on the right side pushing the right buttons for at least a little bit now. He's getting a sort of name recognition for being at the right place at the right time doing the right thing that is absolutely perfect for when it comes time to start dropping names in hats.
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